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Erste Group Research - Recommendation List January 30, 2009 Seite 1
Recommendation ListInternational Stocks January 30, 2009
New recommendations:Goldcorp
Cancelled:BombardierSanyo Electric
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Erste Group Research - Recommendation List January 30, 2009 Seite 2
Core Investments - Musterdepots
since 01 .01.03 s inc e 01.01 .09 since 0 1.01 .03 s ince 01.01.09
S&P 500 -22.93% -0.55% Portfolio 61.78% 4.07%
North America S&P 500 $ -3.94% -6.43% Portfolio $ 109.83% -3.20%
Secur it y ISIN Count ry Sector
Purchase
Date
Purchase
Price
Current
Price
Perf.
Euro
Outperf.
local
Perf.
local
AGNICO-EAGLE M INES CA0084741085 CN Gold-Mining 25/01/2008 61.00 65.77 0.11% 45.31% 7.82%
GOLDCORP INC CA3809564097 CN Gold-Mining 30/01/2009 36.11 36.11 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
JOHNSON & JOHNSON US4781601046 US Healthcare 14/09/2007 63.11 58.28 - 1.85% 35.39% -7.65%
BOMBARDIER INC 'B' CA0977512007 CN Indus tr ial 30/03/2007 4.65 4.05 -15.49% 27.69% - 12.90%
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY US0846702076 US Reinsurance/Hold ing 16/05/2008 4065.00 2900.00 -15.57% 11.97% - 28.66%
ORACLE C ORP. US68389X1054 US Software 21/09/2007 21.04 17.59 -10.15% 27.96% - 16.40%
since 01 .01.03 s inc e 01.01 .09 since 0 1.01 .03 s ince 01.01.09
STOXX 1.50% -6.13% Portfolio 54.01% -0.52%
Europe
Secur it y ISIN Count ry Sector
PurchaseDate
PurchasePrice
CurrentPrice
Perf.Euro
Outperf.local
Perf.local
SOLARWORLD AG DE0005108401 DE Ener gy, A lte rnative 11/05/2007 27.91 16.47 -40.98% 9.81% - 40.98%
VESTAS WINDSYSTEMS DK0010268606 DK Ener gy, A lte rnative 09/01/2009 334.50 289.50 -13.45% -13.51% - 13.45%
RWE AG DE0007037129 DE Utility 17/01/2008 93.05 61.09 -34.35% 10.34% - 34.35%
GAM ESA ES0143416115 SP Indus tr ial 18/11/2005 11.98 12.90 7.68% 41.27% 7.68%
ROCHE HOLDING GEN. CH0012032048 CH Medica l Drugs 17/01/2008 201.60 160.30 -15.06% 24.20% - 20.49%
since 01.01.03 s ince 01.01.09 since 1.1.03 since 01.01.09
MSCI Far East 19.04% 0.22% Portfolio 50.86% 0.33%
Asia MSCI Far East (Lo) 11.25% -4.21% Port folio(Lo) 99.40% -5.25%
Secur it y ISIN Count ry Sector
Purchase
Date
Purchase
Price
Current
Price
Perf.
Euro
Outperf.
local
Perf.
local
ZIJIN MINING GROUP CNE100000502 HK Gold-Mining 11/04/2008 7.94 3.87 -41.15% - 4.59% - 51.26%
LIHIRGOLD PG0008974597 AU Gold-Mining 10/10/2008 2.49 2.96 18.17% 31.01% 18.88%
NEWC REST MINING AU000000NCM7 AU Gold-Mining 11/10/2008 25.64 30.40 17.86% 30.70% 18.56%
CHINA M OBILE LTD HK0941009539 HK Communications 05/09/2003 21.30 70.00 176.42% 210.88% 228.64%
CHINA C ONSTR. BANK CNE1000002H1 HK Financ ial 30/11/2007 3021.00 3.91 -40.65% 6.35% - 47.73%
INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES INE009A01021 IN Software 22/02/2008 1580.10 1309.65 -24.23% 16.22% - 17.12%
PTT PLC TH0646010007 TH Oil Integrated 22/02/2008 328.00 159.00 -49.02% -1070.39% - 51.52%
Core-Investments - Model ortfolios
since 01.01.03 s ince 01.01.09 since 1.1.03 since 01.01.09
Austria ATX 48.10% -2.72% Portfolio 352.47% 6.88%
Secur it y ISIN Count ry Sector
Purchase
Date
Purchase
Price
Current
Price
Outperf.
local
Perf.
local
STERR. POST AG AT0000APOST4 AS Trans port 29/06/2007 32.50 24.40 39.92% - 24.92%
CA IMM O INTERNATIONAL A TCAIMMOINT5 AS Real Estate 25/09/2008 4.70 4.68 5.78% - 39.36%
ZUM TOBEL AG AT0000837307 AS Indus tr ial 08/04/2008 17.32 6.22 - 7.07% - 64.09%
VIENNA INSURANCE GROUP AT0000908504 AS Financ ial 26/05/2006 46.60 24.25 7.25% - 47.96%
INTERCELL AG AT0000612601 AS Consumer, non-c yclic al 06/04/2005 5.73 24.82 370.21% 333.16%
EVN AG AT0000741053 AS Utilities 06/01/2006 18.18 11.90 20.33% - 34.53%
RHI AT0000676903 AS Indus tr ial 10/03/2008 27.01 12.35 - 0.67% - 54.28%
ANDRITZ AT0000730007 AS Indus tr ial 23/10/2008 18.80 22.64 26.75% 20.43%
VERBUND AT0000746409 AS Utility 18/08/2008 47.48 30.00 14.74% - 36.82%
OMV A G AT0000743059 AS Oil & Gas 24/01/2008 43.60 21.21 2.43% - 51.35%
KAPSCH TRAFFICCOM A T000KAPSCH9 AS Traffic Management 13/02/2008 27.33 15.50 1.50% 1.80%
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USA - Core Investments
Ma rket Cap 7,116.50 Return on Equity 11.13Beta 1.19 Opera ting M argin 4.8052-Week-High 8.97 Debt Rati o 58.49
52-Week-Lo w 3.17 Dividend Yiel d 2.23P E c urrent Ye ar 6.43 Earnings Gro wth cu rre nt year 41.67P EG Rat io 0.17 Earnings Gro wth next year 250.63P r ice /Book Rat io 2.80 Historical Ea rnings Growth 41.09P rice/ Sales Ratio 0.29 Historical Sa les Growth 0.48
Ma rket Cap 161,701.80 Return on Equity 25.60Beta 0.69 Opera ting M argin 25.3652-Week-High 72.76 Debt Rati o 18.0452-Week-Lo w 52.06 Dividend Yiel d 3.27
P E c urrent Ye ar 12.81 Earnings Gro wth cu rre nt year 24.52P EG Rat io 1.58 Earnings Gro wth next year 6.61P r ice /Book Rat io 3.54 Historical Ea rnings Growth 11.42P rice/ Sales Ratio 2.57 Historical Sa les Growth 9.77
Ma rket Cap 10,407.58 Return on Equity 8.42
Beta 1.04 Operating M argin 39.67
52-Week-High 82.80 Debt Rati o 0.00
52-Week-Lo w 26.60 Dividend Yiel d 0.32
P E c urrent Ye ar 97.24 Earnings Gro wth cu rre nt year -25.00
P EG Rat io 4.11 Earnings Gro wth next year -36.25
P r ice /Book Rat io 3.62 Historical Ea rnings Growth 74.19
P rice/ Sales Ratio 19.23 Historical Sa les Growth 16.37
Bombardier Inc 'B'
Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
Johnson & Johnson
Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
A nico-Ea le Mines
Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
Cancellation:Due to w eakening demand in the aviationsegment the company show s signs of economic deterioration.
We cannot see a positive change soon and therefore cancel
the s tock from our recommendation list.
The company is the top healthcare company w or ld-
w ide. Even if it is already a large corporation it has
always been able to find growth opportunities und to
increase its prof itability. The PE ratio is low (14), especially
regarding the high quality of the balance
sheet.
Agnico-Eagle Mines is a prof itable Canadian gold minining company
w ith revenues already exceeding CAD 400 million per year. The
company has a solid balance sheet and in an environment of r isinggold prices probably w ill generate increasing profits in the next
years.
Bombardier Inc. 'B'
3 .0
4 .0
5.0
6 .0
7.0
8 .0
9 .0
01/08 02/0803/0804/08 05/ 0806/0807/ 08 08/0809/08 10/08 11/ 08 12/08 01/09
BOMBARDIER' B' MAV60 MAV 30
Johnson & Johnson
50
53
56
59
62
65
68
71
74
01/08 02/0803/0804/08 05/ 0806/0807/0808/08 09/ 08 10/08 11/0812/ 08 01/09
JOHNSON& JOHNSON MAV60 MAV 30
Agnico Eagle Mines
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
01/08 02/ 08 03/0804/0805/08 06/08 07/ 0808/0809/0810/08 11/0812/08 01/ 09
AGNICO-EAGLE MINES MAV60 MAV 30
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USA - Core Investments
M arket Cap 26,339.87 Return o n Equity 3.62
Beta 0.83 Operating M argin 27.75
52-Week-High 52.48 Debt Ratio 7.35
52-Week-Low 17.77 Dividend Yield 0.62
P E current Year 45.69 Earnings Growth current year -42.39
P EG Ratio 6.45 Earnings Growth next ye ar -20.92
P rice/B ook Ratio 1.52 Historical E arnings Growth 8.67P rice/Sales Ratio 8.34 Historical Sales Growth 24.46
M arket Cap 135,207.00 Return o n Equity 11.53Beta 0.82 Operating M argin 18.1752-Week-High 147,000.00 Debt Ratio 21.5152-Week-Low 74,100.00 Dividend Yield n.a.P E current Year 15.71 Earnings Growth current year 19.65P EG R at io Earnings Gro wth next ye ar -31.71P rice/B ook Ratio 1.13 Historical E arnings Growth 19.62
r c e/ a e s at o 1.22 s to r ca a e s ro wt 22.66
M arket Cap 88,762.26 Return o n Equity 27.64Beta 0.85 Operating M argin 35.7152-Week-High 23.62 Debt Ratio 32.8052-Week-Low 15.10 Dividend Yield 0.00
current ear 13.13 arnngs rowt current year 30.12at o 1.00 arnngs rowt next year 46.04
r ce/ oo at o 3.89 s to r ca a rn ng s r o wt 23.22r c e/ a e s at o 3.85 s to r ca a e s ro wt 19.58
Goldcorp Inc
Market Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
Berkshire Hathawa Inc B
Market Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
Oracle
Market Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
Oracle is a leading softw are company w orldw ide.
With new products they are successful in expanding
sales and earnings. Cash Flow s also are solid andchances are good that Oracle can continue above
average growth for a n extended period of time.
Berkshire Hathaway is a holding company w ith the main focus on
the reinsurance business. Due to efficient management by the
investment tycoons Warren Buffe tt and Charles Munger it has a
mult i-decade long successful enterprise history. The stock can be
used as a strategic part of an equity portf olio. Berkshire
Hathaw ay appears very attractive for above average returns.
Berkshire Hathawa y -B
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
01/08 02/08 03/0804/0805/0806/0807/0808/0809/0810/08 11/08 12/0801/09
BERKSH IREHATHAWAY' B' MAV60 MAV 30
Oracle
14
17
20
23
01/08 02/08 03/08 04/08 05/08 06/08 07/0808/08 09/0810/08 11/08 12/0801/09
ORA CLE MAV 30 M AV60
Goldcorp
18
28
38
48
01/08 02/0803/08 04/08 05/08 06/08 07/0808/0809/0810/08 11/08 12/08 01/09
Goldcorp MAV60 MAV 30
New Recommendation: Goldcorp is a North American goldproducer that has been able to increase its sales subs tancially
w ithin the last years. Due to a favourable inc rease of the goldprice during the las t years the company also s how s st able
cash f low s. Goldcorp also has a solid balance sheet wi th an
equity ratio of nearly 74%.
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Europa - Core Investments
Ma rket Cap 34,34 1.82 Return on Equity 19.29et a 0.88 perat ng argn 12.84
5 2- e e - g 89.44 e t at o 47.1052-Week-Lo w 49.10 Dividend Y ield 6.49
current ear 12.31 arn ngs ro wt current year 17.04at o 1.06 arn ngs ro wt next year 18.23
r ce / o o at o 2.91 s to r c a a rn ng s r o wt 20.39r ce / a es at o 0.77 s to r ca a es ro wt -1.15
Ma rket Cap 3,228.59 Return on Equity 18.80
et a 1.22 perat ng argn 7.675 2- e e - g 36.18 e t at o 39.835 2- e e - o w 10.10 v en e 2.12
current ear 13.60 arn ngs ro wt current year 10.00at o 0.73 arn ngs ro wt next year n.a.
r ce / o o at o 2.28 s to r c a a rn ng s r o wt 9.79
P rice/ Sales Ratio 0.94 Historical Sa les Growth 24.04
Ma rket Cap 52,875.77 Return on Equity 20.95Beta 1.41 Operating M argin 9.115 2- e e - g 700.00 e t at o 9.005 2- e e - o w 180.00 v en e 0.25
current ear 20.12 arn ngs ro wt current year 159.59at o 0.45 arn ngs ro wt next year n.a.
r ce / o o at o 4.26 s to r c a a rn ng s r o wt n.a.r ce / a es at o 1.30 s to r ca a es ro wt 17.22
RWE AG
Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
GAMESA S.A.
Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
Vestas Wind Systems
The Spanish manufac turer Gamesa is the market leader in
Spain and is pos itioned among the most important w ind
generator manuf acturers in the w orld w ith a market share
in 2007 upper 15%. Gamesa has i ts main produc t lines in
20 countries spread out over four continents. Good long
term potential. Buy.
RWE is one of Germany's top electricity s uppliers. It also ow ns
major UK-based utilities and domestic electr ic ity and gas supplier
RWE npow er, as w ell as operating div isions all over Europe.
Further RWE is reducing it's large overall CO2 exposure by
investing in new and existing Nuclear and alternative Energyplants. Buy.
The Danish Vestas Wind Systems A/S is present in 63 countries
and w ith a market share of 23% for years the w orlds largest
producer of w indturbines. The company has a solid order backlog
from Europe (62%) and the growth markets Americas (24%) and
Asia (14%). Due to the over proportional share price drop las t
year and the good growth outlook in the w ind indus try the s tock
has recovery and high long termpotential. Buy.
RWE
5055606570
7580
859095
100105
01/08 02/0803/08 04/ 0805/0806/ 08 07/ 0808/0809/08 10/08 11/08 12/ 0801/09
RWE MAV60 MAV30
Gamesa
10131619
222528
313437
01/08 02/0803/0804/08 05/0806/08 07/0808/08 09/ 08 10/08 11/08 12/08 01/09
GAMESA CORPN.TEGC. MAV 30 MAV60
Vestas Wind System s
120
320
520
01/08 02/0803/0804/08 05/08 06/0807/08 08/0809/08 10/08 11/08 12/08 01/ 09
Vestas MAV60 MAV30
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Europa - Core Investments
Ma rket Cap 1,843.38 Return on Equity 17.57et a 1.48 perat ng argn 29.16
5 2- e e - g 37.90 e t at o 48.115 2- e e - o w 10.80 v en e 1.28
c urrent e ar arn ngs ro wt cu rre nt year -16.81at o 0.44 arn ngs ro wt next year 52.28
r ce / o o at o 2.27 s to r c a a rn ng s r o wt n.a.r ce / a es at o 2.10 s to r ca a es ro wt 37.36
Ma rket Cap 141,142.40 Return on Equity 23.02et a 0.92 perat ng argn 31.36
5 2- e e - g 209.90 e t at o 11.415 2- e e - o w 140.10 v en e 3.51
current ear 14.47 arn ngs ro wt current year 23.21at o 1.64 arn ngs ro wt next year 15.94
r ce / o o at o 3.37 s to r c a a rn ng s r o wt n.a.r ce / a es at o 3.08 s to r ca a es ro wt 11.57
Solarworld AG
Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
Roche Holding AG
Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
Due to the increased oil prices and enhanced environmental
awareness chances arise for companies of the alternative
energy-sector. Solarw orld will be able to boost its earnings the
nex t years. As Solarw orld is one of the leaders in the indus try of
integrated solarcompanies w e recommend buying the stock.
In this diff icult economic environment for cyclical companies, a
defens ive va lue such as the Sw iss pharmaceutical giant is an
attractive investment. The core business is the production of
quality drugs in a higher pr ice segment for hospitals, w here the
f irm enjoys a solid pipeline. Through acquisitions , Roche is also
in a good posi tion in its medica l technique division. We select
the stock for our recommendation list.
Solarworld
10
15
2025
30
35
40
45
50
01/08 02/0803/0804/08 05/0806/0807/ 0808/0809/ 08 10/08 11/0812/08 01/09
SOLARWORLD MAV 30 MAV60
Roche
140
155
170
185
200
215
01/ 08 02/0803/0804/08 05/0806/0807/ 0808/0809/08 10/08 11/08 12/08 01/09
ROCHE HOLDING MAV60 MAV 30
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Asien - Core Investments
M a rke t C ap 14,038.67 Return on Equity 6.48Beta 0.72 Operating M argin 32.2452-Week-High 40.50 Debt Rat io 10.1852-Week-Lo w 16.55 Dividend Yield 0.47P E current Ye ar 95.09 Earnings Gro wth cu rre nt year 73.45P EG Rat io 2.86 Earnings G ro wth next year 360 .19Price/Book Rat io 4.36 Historical Ea rnings G rowth 2.60P rice/Sales Rat io 5.22 Historical Sales Growth 24.90
a r et ap 262,127.30 eturn on qu ty 286.27et a 1.00 perat ng argn 3.77
52-Week-High 297.00 Debt Rat io 60.225 2- e e - o w 110.00 v en e 0.00
current ear 34.37 arn ngs ro wt current year n.a.at o arn ngs ro wt ne xt yea r -271.31
r ce / o o at o 8.88 s to r c a a rn ng s r o wt n.a.r ce / a es at o 0.13 s to r ca a es ro wt -1.45
M a rke t C ap 905,859.30 Return on Equity 18.39Beta 1.22 Operating M argin 32.045 2- e e - g 7.29 e t at o 62.275 2- e e - o w 2.50 v en e 5.76P E current Ye ar 8.49 Earnings Gro wth cu rre nt year 42.86
at o 0.52 arn ngs ro wt next year 47.67r ce / o o at o 1.75 s to r c a a rn ng s r o wt 37.97
r ce / a es at o 2.13 s to r ca a es ro wt 15.87
NEWCREST MINING
Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
SANYO ELECTRIC
Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK
Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
Aus tralia's largest gold mine operator quadrupled it's last half-year
results, production rose last year by 10% to 1.75 million ounces.
New cres t has g old reserves amounting to 40 million ounces. The
valuation per oz is co nsiderably ch eaper than the industry average.
Af ter t he bitter losses w ithin the previous w eeks , the stock is now
valued very favorably .
Cancellation:
The company w ill be acquired by Panasonic Corp f or 140
Yen/share. We do not expect an increase for this of fer
and therefore cancel the stock f rom our recommendation list.
Sanyo Elec tric
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
01/08 02/0803/08 04/0805/0806/0807/08 08/0809/08 10/08 11/08 12/0801/09
SA NYOELECTRIC MA V 30 M AV60
CCB is our top-pick w ithin the Chinese banking sector. In our
view , CCB should be a key beneficiary of the rising rate
cyc le. Grow th, valuation as w ell as marg ins are more
attractive than the Peer Group. CCB ist currently evaluatingtakeover- targets w orldw ide, the trough-train program (DII
and QDII) f rom mainland China should also support the CCB's
stock.
China Cons truction Bank
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
01/08 02/0803/0804/08 05/ 08 06/0807/0808/0809/0810/08 11/08 12/08 01/09
CHINA CON.BANK' H' MAV30 M AV60
Ne wcrest Minin g
10
20
30
40
01/ 08 02/ 08 03/ 08 04/ 08 05/ 08 06/ 08 07/ 08 08/ 08 09/ 08 10/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 08
M AV60 MA V 3 0
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Asien - Core Investments
M arket Cap 1,413,834.00 Return o n Equity 25.14B e t a 1.08 Operating M argin 36.1852-Week-High 138.98 Debt Ratio 8.6652-Week-Low 50.50 Dividend Yield 4.61P E current Year 11.96 Earnings Growth current year 31.02P EG Rat io 0.67 Earnings Growth next ye ar 45.79P r ice /Book Rat io 3.06 Historica l Earnings Growth 20.67P rice/Sales Ratio 3.22 Historica l Sales Growth 21.59
M arket Cap 6,849.03 Return o n Equity -1.62B e t a 0.95 Operating M argin 21.8052-Week-High 4.39 Debt Ratio 0.0552-Week-Low 1.52 Dividend Yield 0.17P E current Year Earnings Gro wt h current year n.a.P EG Rat io 1.37 Earnings Growth next ye ar -871.43P r ice /Book Rat io 1.76 Historica l Earnings Growth n.a.P rice/Sales Ratio 6.96 Historica l Sales Growth n.a.
M arket Cap 748,241.40 Return o n Equity 37.20B e t a 0.69 Operating M argin 27.9252-Week-High 2,046.50 Debt Ratio 0.0052-Week-Low 1,040.00 Dividend Yield 2.12P E current Year 16.03 Earnings Growth current year 17.75P EG Rat io 1.04 Earnings Growth next ye ar 32.40P r ice /Book Rat io 5.42 Historica l Earnings Growth 35.24P rice/Sales Ratio 4.47 Historical S ales Growth 33.57
CHINA MOBILE
Market Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
Lihir Gold
Market Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES LTD
Market Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
China Mobile is the leading force in the worlds biggest mobile
phone market. The company, through its subsidiaries, provides
cellulartelecommunication servic es in the People's Republic of
China. It has a solid balance sheet and is expected to showstrong growth rates in the c oming years. We recommend China
Mobile as a Buy.
The Indian IT service provider is one of the biggest
beneficiaries of globalization. In the past quarter, turnover
exceeded the USD 1 billion mark f or the f irs t time, EBIT-
margin increased to 28.8 %. For the current fis cal year, thecompany expects nearly 30% of prof it and s ales grow th,
due to the current record backlog certainly a realistic
expectation. Af ter the recent price declines, w e see the
stock now at an attractive entry- level.
The w ell establis hed gold producer, based in Papua New
Guinea, has recently announced the acquisition of Equigold.
The company now has 3.4 million ounces of additional
resources. Production is scheduled f or 2008 at 900,000
ounces of g old, at cash costs of USD 360 per ounce. 2009 a
produc tion of 1.28 million ounces at cash costs of $ 357 per
oz expected. Conclusion: Lihir should be extended f rom the
current falling energy and commodity prices and by the
sharp rise in gold prices above benefit.
China Mobile
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
01/08 02/08 03/08 04/08 05/08 06/ 08 07/ 08 08/ 08 09/0810/08 11/08 12/08 01/09
CHINA MOB ILE MAV30 MA V60
Infosys Technologies Ltd.
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
01/08 02/0803/0804/ 0805/0806/0807/ 0808/0809/0810/08 11/08 12/08 01/ 09
INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES MAV 30 MAV60
Lihir Gold
1
2
3
4
5
01/08 02/0803/08 04/ 08 05/08 06/0807/08 08/0809/08 10/08 11/08 12/08 01/09
Li hir Gol d MAV 30 MAV60
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Asien - Core Investments
M arket Cap 451,84 9.10 Return o n Equity 30.04B e t a 1.24 Operating M argin 7.7952-Week-High 382.00 Debt Ratio 36.3252-Week-Low 134.00 Dividend Yield 5.79P E current Year 4.59 Earnings Growth current year 1.99P EG Rat io 1.77 Earnings Growth next ye ar -28.28P r ice /Book Rat io 1.11 Historica l Earnings Growth 31.81P rice/Sales Ratio 0.22 Historica l Sales Growth 30.10
M arket Cap 76,773.48 Return o n Equity 56.78B e t a 1.60 Operating M argin 32.0552-Week-High 10.96 Debt Ratio 47.5152-Week-Low 1.39 Dividend Yield 3.04P E current Year 15.99 Earnings Growth current year 48.44P EG Rat io 1.08 Earnings Growth next ye ar 16.32
P r ice /Book Rat io 3.15 Historica l Earnings Growth 67.06P rice/Sales Ratio 3.10 Historica l Sales Growth 78.54
PTT PCL
Market Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
ZIJIN MINING
Market Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
The Thai oil and gas company benef its from high oil prices,
strong gas demand as w ell as significantly higher c ontract
status in the petrochemica ls division. The quality of PTT's
balance sheet is ou tstanding, due to the PE-ratio of 10x, adividend yield of 3.6 %and high prof itability w e see significant
upside potential.
Due to a aggres sive expansion strategy, China's largestgold company advanced to the fourth largest gold
producer w or ldw ide. The company is characterized by
low mining costs and a promising exploration pipeline.
Valuation and grow th prospects are favourable
compared to the peergroup, the planned A-share listing in
Shanghai should support the s tock price.
PTT
140180
220
260
300
340
380
420
01/08 02/0803/0804/08 05/0806/0807/08 08/0809/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
PTT MAV 30 MA V60
Zijin Mi ning
1
6
11
01/ 08 02/08 03/08 04/08 05/08 06/0807/08 08/08 09/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
ZIJI N MININGGROUP 'H' MAV30 MAV60
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sterreich XetraCore Investments
a r et ap 1,950.86 eturn on qu ty 6.8et a 0.61 perat ng argn 6.8
5 2- e e - g 23.07 e t at o 50.4%5 2- e e - o w 10.00 v en e 3.4P E current Ye ar 9.71 Earnings Gro wth cu rre nt year 7.2
at o -- arn ngs ro wt next year 22.1r ce / o o at o 0.67 s to r c a a rn ng s r o wt -3.3r ce / a es at o 0.72 s to r ca a es ro wt 8.9
a r et ap 3,130.88 eturn on qu ty 10.8et a 0.90 perat ng argn --
5 2- e e - g 59.00 e t at o --5 2- e e - o w 15.41 v en e 5.4
current ear 7.39 arn ngs ro wt current year 0.9at o -- arn ngs ro wt next year 5.9
r ce / o o at o 0.78 s to r c a a rn ng s r o wt 9.7r ce / a es at o n.m. s to r ca a es ro wt --
a r et ap 1,205.90 eturn on qu ty 3.6et a 0.88 perat ng argn 11.2
5 2- e e - g 33.18 e t at o 24.7%5 2- e e - o w 15.70 v en e 0.0
current ear 98.91 arn ngs ro wt current year 17.7at o -- arn ngs ro wt next year 257.3
r ce / o o at o 3.50 s to r c a a rn ng s r o wt -182.9r ce / a es at o 11.56 s to r ca a es ro wt 62.9%
EVN
Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
Vienna Insurance Group
Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
Intercell
Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
The earnings development of EVN is robust due to its geographical
expansion into Centra l and Eastern Europe. Apart f rom the geogra-
phical diversification and the mult i-utility approach (w ater and
w aste), w e like the 12.5% stake in Verbund, w hich contributes
enormously to the value of the EVN stock. Including the c ompanies
consolidated at-equity, w hich have been recognized at 1.0x book
value, this is another enhancement for the value of the stock. The
company 's communicat ion policy and the stock's low liquidity are
some kind of burden, unfortunately. Our recommendation: Buy ,
target price: EUR 18.9.
Austrias largest insurance company sets great store by the
expans ion into CEE. More than one-third of the premium volume is
already being earned in the region. In Romania, the c ompany is
number one, and in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Bulgaria i t
ranks second in the market. The co mpany has a total of 20 million
customers in 20 countries. The GDP of the CEE region is low er GDP
in comparison to Wes tern Europe and the region has an enormous
grow th potential w ith respect to insurance density. The stock
currently suf fers f rom the weak sentiment tow ards CEE. Our target
price: EUR 44.
Intercell is the f irst biotech company listed on Wiener Brs e
specialized in the development of therapeutic and prophy lactic
vaccines. The vaccine market offe rs excellent growth pers pec -
tives. The main development projects are a prophylac tic vaccine
against Japanese encephalitis (in the phase of market approval
currently) and a therapeutic com-pound against hepatitis C. The
company has a lot more projects in the pipeline and projects in the
clinical testing phase w ith cooperation partners (esp.
Novartis/Merck). Our target price: EUR 39,5.
EVN
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
01/08 02/0803/ 08 04/0805/08 06/0807/08 08/0809/08 10/08 11/08 12/0801/09
EVN MA V 30 MA V60
Vienna Insur anc Group
10152025303540455055
60
01/08 02/0803/08 04/0805/08 06/0807/0808/08 09/ 08 10/08 11/08 12/0801/09
VIENNA INS URANCEGROUP A MAV30 MAV60
Intercell
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
01/08 02/0803/08 04/0805/08 06/0807/08 08/0809/ 08 10/08 11/08 12/0801/09
INTERCELL MAV 30 M AV60
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M a rke t C ap 475.98 Return on Equity 23.6%Beta 0.85 Operating M argin 7.0%52-Week-High 34.45 Debt Rat io 75.3%52-Week-Lo w 10.60 Dividend Yield 0.0%P E current Ye ar 7.96 Earnings Gro wth cu rre nt year - 55.5%P EG Rat io -- Earnings G ro wth next year -4.4%Price/Book Rat io 1.68 Historical Ea rnings G rowth - 35.6%P rice/Sales Rat io 0.35 Historical Sa les Growth 1.9%
a r et ap 1,70 1.00 eturn on qu ty 18.6et a 0.49 perat ng argn 7.2
5 2- e e - g 28.66 e t at o 68.0%5 2- e e - o w 19.61 v en e 10.7current ear 12.19 arn ngs ro wt current year 8.6
at o -- arn ngs ro wt next year 10.8r ce / o o at o 2.47 s to r c a a rn ng s r o wt 12.0r ce / a es at o 0.62 s to r ca a es ro wt 12.5
a r et ap 6,456.00 eturn on qu ty 21.7et a 0.97 perat ng argn 13.7
5 2- e e - g 56.90 e t at o 48.2%5 2- e e - o w 16.70 v en e 12.8
current ear 2.74 arn ngs ro wt current year 1.5%at o -- arn ngs ro wt next year 0.8
r ce / o o at o 0.56 s to r c a a rn ng s r o wt 18.9r ce / a es at o 0.25 s to r ca a es ro wt 10.2
RHI
Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
sterreichische Post AG
Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
OMV
Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
RHI is a global player and has a w orldw ide number one position
in the refractories business . The most important customer
indus tries are iron & steel, cement & lime, nonferrous metals and
glass. The group's current targets are the strengthening of the
leading market pos ition also through acquisitions. It targets EUR2bn revenues and 12% EBIT margin by 2010. The further
backw ard integration w ith start up of its new raw material JV in
China in the course of 2008 w ill have a significant positive
margin impact. Our 12-month target price: EUR 19.
RHI
10
15
20
25
30
35
01/08 02/0803/08 04/ 08 05/0806/08 07/ 0808/0809/08 10/08 11/08 12/08 01/09
RHI MAV 30 MAV60
Austrian Post is the leading logist ics company in Austria, w ith a
nationw ide s ervice obligation. In recent years, the f irm has been
transformed into a modern and successful company w ith high-
quality standards. Austrian Post intends to grow through
selective acquisitions, mainly in the CEE region. Recently, the
company w as facing problems in its parce l div ision. How ever,
w e see still ups ide potential for the share price. The div idend
yield of around 10% ( incl. the special dividend) should act as
support . Our target price: EUR 30.
sterreichische Post AG
20
23
26
29
01/08 02/0803/0804/08 05/0806/08 07/0808/08 09/ 08 10/08 11/08 12/08 01/09
OSTERREICHISCHEPOST MAV 30 MAV60
OMV currently suffers signif icantly from the recent decline in
the oil pr ice. The s tock is s till suitable as a "hedge" for the
portfolio against possible oil pr ice increases and is also a good
means to divers ify into the commodity sector. The va luation of
the stock is currently quite low , in our opinion, and does not
consider the strong substance of the company. Our target
price: under review .
OMV
152025
30
354045
50
5560
01/08 02/0803/0804/08 05/0806/08 07/0808/08 09/ 08 10/08 11/08 12/08 01/09
OMV MAV 30 MAV60
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M a rke t C ap 344.65 Return on Equity 14.3%Beta n.a. Operating M argin 18.1%52-Week-High 43.75 Debt Rat io 46.6%52-Week-Lo w 24.55 Dividend Yield 3.5%P E current Ye ar 8.46 Earnings Gro wth cu rre nt year -23.4%
at o -- arn ngs ro wt next year 6.2r ce / o o at o 1.16 s to r c a a rn ng s r o wt 0.3r ce / a es at o 1.14 s to r ca a es ro wt -5.9
a r et ap 9,119.64 eturn on qu ty 28.0%Beta 0.84 Operating M argin 33.9%
5 2- e e - g 61.72 e t at o 55.2%5 2- e e - o w 26.80 v en e 4.3
current ear 10.50 arn ngs ro wt current year 17.6at o -- arn ngs ro wt next year 11.8
r ce / o o at o 2.70 s to r c a a rn ng s r o wt 20.7%r ce / a es at o 2.31 s to r ca a es ro wt 11.5
a r et ap 123.86 eturn on qu ty -18.2%et a 0.78 perat ng argn -169.2
5 2- e e - g 11.00 e t at o 46.4%5 2- e e - o w 1.75 v en e 0.0
current ear -1.21 arn ngs ro wt current year 530.1at o -- arn ngs ro wt next year -19.5%
r ce / o o at o 0.24 s to r c a a rn ng s r o wt -208.4%r ce / a es at o 2.32 s to r ca a es ro wt n.a.
Kapsch TrafficCom
Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
Verbund
Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
CA Immo Int.
Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
KTC benef its in the long-term from budget cons traints of
governments and from the ever r ising traf f ic volume. We see
plenty of p rojects globally in the long term. The valuation of the
stock is only based on existing projects, the disputed projec t inSlovakia is completely excluded f rom our model. Our target
price: EUR 32.7.
Due to rising cons truction costs for new pow er plants, w e
expect the electricity prices to remain at least at high levels.
90% of Verbund's current ouput is generated by hydropower.
Assuming an average w ater supply, Verbund will be able to
present another record year in 2009. However, 2010 could
bring a declining result. Our target price: under review.
Ca Immo Int.(CAII) has rece ntly cut back its development pipeline
and also stated that they w ould only do bargain hunting in the
case re al market if opportunities arise. The stock is not perfectly
liquid, but w e believe it has the perfect c onservative strategy
for this diff icult market s ituation with an estimated LTV ra tio of
only 12% at the end of 2008 and good contacts to Bank Austria
(10% ow ner of CA Immo) . Addtionally, CA Immo is constantly
increasing its stake in the company. Our target price: EUR 6.0.
Verbund
20
30
40
50
60
01/08 02/ 08 03/0804/0805/08 06/08 07/ 0808/0809/0810/08 11/0812/08 01/ 09
VERBUNDGESELLS CHAFT MA V30 MAV60
Kapsch TrafficCom
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
01/08 02/0803/0804/08 05/ 08 06/0807/0808/0809/0810/08 11/08 12/08 01/09
KAPSCH TRAFFIC COM MAV30 MAV60
CA Imm o International
1
4
7
10
13
01/08 02/08 03/08 04/ 08 05/0806/08 07/0808/08 09/08 10/08 11/08 12/08 01/09
CA Immo MAV 30 MAV60
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a r et ap 1,222.00 eturn on qu ty 23.1et a 1.03 perat ng argn 5.7
5 2- e e - g 44.24 e t at o 77.0%5 2- e e - o w 15.91 v en e 5.3
P E current Ye ar 8.35 Earnings Gro wth cu rre nt year -7.7%P EG Rat io -- Earnings G ro wth next year 1.9%Price/Book Rat io 1.83 Historical Ea rnings G rowth 14.0%P rice/Sales Rat io 0.34 Historical Sales Growth 9.0%
a r et ap 288.79 eturn on qu ty 1.7%et a 0.65 perat ng argn 3.0
5 2- e e - g 20.90 e t at o 52.9%5 2- e e - o w 5.10 v en e 1.6%current ear 30.46 arn ngs ro wt current year -84.1%
at o -- arn ngs ro wt next year 50.2%r ce / o o at o 0.52 s to r c a a rn ng s r o wt - 55.7r ce / a es at o 0.25 s to r ca a es ro wt -4.5
Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
Andritz
Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth
Zumtobel
Andritz has re cently announced new ambitous long-term
targets. Andritz now targets a sustainable EBITA-margin level of
7% (af ter 5.9%) and a sa les vo lume of EUR 4.5bn by 2010/11.
Based on the track record investors can expect that promises
w ill be delivered. We thinkt that Andritz is a good investmentcase in a recessionary environment due to a f lexible cost
strucutre and its strong exposure to the market f or renew able
energy (+40%). Our target price: EUR 40.0.
Zumtobel is the leading pure player in the highly fragmented
lighting business in Europe and a global player in the component
bus iness w ith a core competence on state-of -the-art products.
The f ocus is on components ("TridonicAtco"), professional
lighting solutions , luminaires and lighting management, primari ly
in the non-residential sector. The company is currently facing a
very tough environment but wi th the EUR 480mn, 5-year credit
agreement concluded mid 2008 it should be able to w eather the
storm. Our target price: EUR 8.0.
Andritz
10 .0
20.0
30.0
40.0
01/08 02/0803/0804/ 0805/0806/0807/ 08 08/0809/0810/08 11/08 12/0801/09
ANDRITZ MAV60 MAV30
Zumtobel
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
01/08 02/08 03/ 08 04/08 05/ 0806/08 07/08 08/ 08 09/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
Zumt obel MAV60 MAV 30
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