Coming to Grips with Political Bias

Eric Merkley

Ph.D. CandidateDepartment of Political ScienceUniversity of British Columbia

America has a problem

America has a problem

1) Rejection of traditional institutions (e.g. mass media)

America has a problem

1) Rejection of traditional institutions (e.g. mass media)

2) Rise of misinformation

6

7

America has a problem

1) Rejection of traditional institutions (e.g. mass media)

2) Rise of misinformation

3) Rise of news/social media echo chambers

America has a problem

1) Rejection of traditional institutions (e.g. mass media)

2) Rise of misinformation

3) Rise of news/social media echo chambers

4) Rejection of expertise

Issue Experts (%) U.S. Adults (%) Gap (%)

GMOs are safe 88 37 51

Favor nuclear power 65 45 20

Mandate childhood vaccinations 86 68 18

Climate change is real and man-

made

87 50 37

Carbon tax > car standards 92 22 70

Buy American => employment 11 76 65

NAFTA increased welfare 95 46 49

Changes in gas prices due to

market forces

92 54 38

Sources: Pew Research (2015); Sapienza and Zingales (2013). Science experts

are AAAS members, economists are IGM panel members

Why is this happening?

Disconfirmation bias:

Tendency to reject information incongruent with

group goals

Confirmation bias:

Tendency to seek out and accept information

congruent with group goals

(Strickland, Taber, & Lodge 2011)

Driven by affect – the stronger the likes and

dislikes one has in the political environment, the

stronger the tendency towards bias.

Not a conscious process.

Likes and dislikes in politics are largely a function of

our social identities.

(Taber & Lodge 2014)

What about human reason?

Some people can apply reason to politics even

when they have strong social identities.

The problem is one of motivation.

Directional goals dominate accuracy goals in

mass democratic politics.

Bias is (boundedly) rational

Bias impacts our judgment across more strains of

our lives than politics.

19

NowThen

20

What most people think about Tom

Brady

21

What I think about Tom Brady

But bias is most strongly prevalent in our political

lives and leads to some pretty peculiar political

behaviour

Source: Pew Research Centre

-23

+27

+9

Source: Gallup

Source: YouGov

Feelings Towards Godfather’s Pizza

Source: The Monkey Cage

Partisanship is a helluva drug

Okay, but why are things getting worse?

Source: Carroll et al. (2016)

Source: Carroll et al. (2016)

Source: Pew Research Centre

Source: Abramowitz and Weber (2016)

2008 20101960

Proportion Displeased by Inter-Party Marriage

Iyengar et al. (2012)

What about Canada?

More Right-Wing

More Left-WingSource: Adapted from Cochrane (2008)

and the Comparative Manifesto Project

72 74 79/80 84 88 93 97 00 04 06 08

Election

More Right-Wing

More Left-WingSource: Adapted from Cochrane (2008)

and the Comparative Manifesto Project

72 74 79/80 84 88 93 97 00 04 06 08

Election

More Right-Wing

More Left-WingSource: Adapted from Cochrane (2008)

and the Comparative Manifesto Project

72 74 79/80 84 88 93 97 00 04 06 08

Election

More Right-Wing

More Left-WingSource: Adapted from Cochrane (2008)

and the Comparative Manifesto Project

72 74 79/80 84 88 93 97 00 04 06 08

Election

In the United States…

Source: Abramowitz

and Weber (2016)

46

-0.6

0

0.6

Positive (+) Negative (-)

47

-0.6

0

0.6

Positive (+) Negative (-)

Opinion Change about

Canada’s Economy

48

-0.6

0

0.6

Positive (+) Negative (-)

Opinion Change about

Canada’s Economy

49

-0.6

0

0.6

Positive (+) Negative (-)

Opinion Change about

Canada’s Economy

50

-0.6

0

0.6

Positive (+) Negative (-)

Opinion Change about

Canada’s Economy

52% of Canadians think GMOs are bad for your health

47% of Canadians think the science of climate change is still unclear

19% of Canadians think there is a link between autism and vaccines

Source: Leger (2017)

What can be done?

Institutional change

1) Deliberative democracy (Habermas 1996; Warren 1996, 2017)

2) Journalistic norms (Bennett 1988)

Social change

1) Changes in persuasion tactics (i.e. the message matters)

Moral reframing (Feinberg and Willer 2012)

Feinberg and Willer (2012)

Social change

1) Changes in persuasion tactics (i.e. the message matters)

Moral reframing (Feinberg & Willer 2012)

Bridging arguments(Dixon, Hmielowski, & Ma 2012)

Dixon, Hmielowski, and Ma (2012)

2) Building bridges across the political divide(i.e. the messenger matters)

Importance of trust(Lupia & McCubbins 1998)

And affect (Lodge & Taber 2014)

Climate Polarization in United States

Source: Merkley & Stecula (2016)

3) Recognize your own biases and engage with others in good faith

Beware of the backfire effect (Nyhan & Reifler 2010)

Thanks!

Contact: eric.merkley@alumni.ubc.ca