1

• Degree of Electronic Engineer, National University of Mexico (UNAM), 1992

Thesis: Design and Development of a Strong Motion Acquisition System

• Diploma on “Management of Disaster Prevention and Civil Protection Programs”

National Institute of Public Administration (Mexico), 2002

Thesis: CENAPRED Operative Plan and Procedures for emergencies at

Popocatepetl volcano

• Head of Seismic Instrumentation Department, CENAPRED, 1990-1994

• Head of Volcanic Monitoring Department, CENAPRED, 1994-1996

• Operative Coordinator of the National Seismological Service, UNAM, 1997-2000

• Member of the Advisory Scientific Committee for Popocatepetl volcano

• Member of the Technical-Scientific Committee for the Natural Disaster Prevention

Fund

• Member of the Technical-Scientific Committee of the Mexican Seismic Network

Enrique Guevara

Director of Instrumentation, Monitoring and Computing

National Center for Disaster Prevention, CENAPRED

2

Volcanic Risk Managemet

The role of science and technology

Enrique Guevara Ortíz

Centro Nacional de Prevención de Desastres

Mayo, 2011

3http://nuestropensar.com/2011/04/28/los-comienzos-del-planeta-tierra/

• Volcanoes have

played a key role

in forming and

modifying the

planet where we

live.

• Volcanic eruptions

and gas

emissions have

produced oceans

and atmosphere

mountains,

plateaus, and

plains.

INTRODUCTION

4

Geyser, hotspring

• Today, about 500 million

people live on or close to

volcanoes

• Fertile soils and plenty of

water near volcanoes

• Precious Minerals

• Geothermal energy

• tourism

Why do people live near volcanoes ?

INTRODUCTION

5

Use, ravines

Why do people live near volcanoes ?

• For many people, the

benefits of living near

to a volcano outweigh

the potential dangers.

• Many people in areas

close to volcanoes

may not be able to

afford to move to

alternative areas.

INTRODUCTION

6

Population density and active volcanoes in México. (Macías, et al).

Map obtained from "Gridded Population of the World" (SEDAC) of Columbia

University.

INTRODUCTION

Approximately 75% of the population lives near a volcano.

7

People living in the shadow of volcanoes must live in

harmony with them and expect possible eruptions

INTRODUCTION

8

While the number of volcanoes active per year varies only slightly on average

worldwide (50–70 according to Simkin and Siebert (1994)), the risk from volcano

hazards grows because of continuing growth in world population and increasing

air traffic (from Tilling, 2003).

INTRODUCTION

Increase of volcanic risk

9

Natural and Social Science, Engineering, New information and

Communications Technologies, etc, are key actors and elements to help

decision making and policy makers to establish volcanic risk reduction

strategies.

The risk is a latent condition, ie something that may happen in the future,

then, there are many things that can be done before risk materializes into

a disaster.

To address the problem of damage caused by natural phenomena and find

solutions to reduce their impact, is necessary to proceed methodically. It is first

necessary to define and quantify the concepts of natural phenomena that relate to

their impact on society.

APPROACH

Volcanic risk is a complex problem that doesn‟t receive the importance that it

deserves mainly because of the volcanic recurrence rate in the same place

10

LOCATION OF VOLCANIC ACTIVITY

• Scientists have found that

volcanic activity is

controlled by plate tectonics

Map of the world‟s active volcanoes

• Active volcanoes are located

in different plate tectonic

settings

11

There are about 550 volcanoes on earth that

have erupted in historic times*

FREQUENCY AND SIZE OF ERUPTIONS

Size (cubic

meters)

Frecuency

(every…)

Example

0.001 – 0.01 Several months Kilauea, Unzen

0.01 – 0.1 5 years Etna

0.1 – 1 10 years St. Helen (1980)

1 – 10 100 years Pinatubo

10 – 100 1000 years Krakatoa (1883)

100 – 1000 10,000 years Tambora (1815)

> 1000 100,000 years Yellowstone

12http://www.uwsp.edu/geo/faculty/ozsvath/images/volcanic_explosivity_index.htm

VOLCANIC EXPLOSIVITY INDEX (VEI)

13

Pyroclastic Flow: Fast flowing clouds

of Volcanic ash and rock.

Gas: Often poisonous gases released

from the mantle during an eruption.

Volcanic bombs: Large volcanic rocks

Lapilli/Tephra: Small volcanic stones

Lava: Liquid rock that reaches very

temperatures.

Landslides: Collapsing mountain

material.

Lahaar: A fast flowing river of volcanic

Mud.

Acid rain: Rain mixed with volcanic

gasses that can damage crops.

Tsunamis, atmospheric effects, famine,

diseases

VOLCANIC HAZARDS

14

COLIMA

VOLCANIC HAZARDS

15

VOLCANIC HAZARDS

16

VOLCANIC HAZARDS

17

VOLCANIC HAZARDS

18

The case of Eyjafjallajokökull, April 2010

VOLCANIC HAZARDS

19

• Hazards assessments,

volcano monitoring, and

effective

communications among

scientists, civil

authorities, and the

general public comprise

the core elements of

any successful program

to reduce risk from

volcano hazards

Essential elements of an effective program

to reduce volcano risk. Tilling, 1989b

VOLCANIC HAZARDS

VOLCANIC HAZARDS

20

What can

volcanoes

do?

How and

when?

Activity based on

the eruptive history

Likely scenarios

(occurrence rates)

Hazard Maps

Variation of param.

with respect to a base

level

Volcanic

Monitoring

Probabilities of different

manifestations from the

detected variations

Most probable scenarios

Analysis of exposure,

vulnerabilities and

capabilities

Risk Analysis

Understanding

volcanoes

21

Risk Analysis

Emergency

management

Forecast

Early warning

Alert, communication,

and information

procedures

Response:

implementation of

emergency measures

Prevention,

mitigation and

preparedness

Planning measures

Physical preventive

measures

Creating institutional

arrangements and

coordination

Environmental

management

Land use planning

Risk Transfer

Financial instruments

Emergency plans

Evacuation plans

Capacity building:

Policy development

Legislation, norms

Community

development

awareness raising

Recovery and

reconstruction

VOLCANIC HAZARDS

22

Studying the deposits of rock, geologists can determine how many times has

erupted a volcano which has been the most common. Geologists can also identify

areas that were affected by these previous eruptions.

1/100, 10/15000, 2/40000

HAZARD ASSESSMENT

Incorporate hazard

maps in land use

planning

23

Vulnerability

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

Vulnerability functions for buildings with pitched roofs and flexible tiles, and in the

case of buildings with flat roofs built with a concrete slab or similar

24

RISK ASSESSMENT

Risk= f ( Hazard Probabilities , Vulnerability , value or number of Exposed elements)

25

Visual surveillance

Visual observation and frequent

recording of the conditions of the

volcano

Seismic Monitoring

Measurement of seismic activity to

locate the source of energy release

and interpret physically the

phenomenon

Geodetic Monitoring

Measurement of deformation of the volcano due to changes in pressure inside the volcano

Geochemical monitoring

Chemical analysis of gases, ash, springs, lava and other volcanic products

Other

In addition to the types of monitoring described above, there are other instruments to detect

and measure a number of other physical manifestations in volcanoes (electric and magnetic

field, hidrology, remote sensig, infrasound, infrared cameras,

VOLCANO MONITORING

26

Monitoreo

VOLCANO MONITORING

27

El ascenso de magma

hacia el cráter provoca

una vibración en el

volcán

Al ascender los gases

volcánicos ejercen presión

sobre las paredes inernas

del volcán

La alta presión causa

rompimiento de las

rocas de las paredes

internas del volcán

Otros fenómenos

detectables:

• Explosiones

• Derrumbes

• Flujos

VOLCANO MONITORING

28

VOLCANO MONITORING -FORECAST

29USGS

P ej. St Helen incrementó en el

número de eventos antes de la

erupción de 2004

29

30

VOLCÁN ST. HELENS, SEPTIEMBRE 2004

Foto: USGS 30

31

The “decision window” confronting public officials after

the onset of a volcanic crisis; in general, the most likely outcome

of escalating volcano unrest is unknown (base diagram

courtesy of C. Dan Miller, USGS).

DECISION WINDOW

There is a need to understand and accept that Uncertainty exist

32

Inte

ns

ity

of

mo

nit

ori

ng

pa

ram

ete

rs

Tiempo

ErupciónErupción

Retorno a

La calma

Retorno a

La calma

Nivel de erupcion Estado Sostenido

De erupción permanente

Basado en Chris Newhall

32

DECISION WINDOW

33

An example of urban design used to

mitigate the effects of ash fall in

Kagoshima, Japan. The design of the

housing includes gutter-free roofs (which

have a storm water channel located

directly beneath), ash-resistant tiles,

heavy-duty rubber window and door seals

(to aid air tightness to prevent ash

entering houses) and large overhanging

roofs over balconies (Photo: David

Johnston).

PREVENTION : REDUCING VULNERABILITY

34

Construction of engineering works designed to protect people and property.

Examples: construction of containment or diversion of the course in case of

flows.

Volcán Unzen

Seven lahar dams have been built on the Boyong River

by the Indonesian Department of Public Works with

assistance from the Japanese government. The dams

slow down the lahars, remove much of the debris they

carry, and reduce the energy of the lahars. The dam is

10.5 m high and can capture 380,000 cubic meters of

lahar material. 34

PREVENTION : REDUCING VULNERABILITY

35

PREPARDNESS

36

MT. PINATUBO, JUNIO 1991

The USGS and PHIVOLCS estimate

that their forecasts saved at least 5,000 lives

and perhaps as many as 20,000.

36

37

• The challenge to scientists involved with volcano research is to mitigate the

short-term adverse impacts of eruptions, so that society may continue to enjoy

the long-term benefits of volcanism.

• They must continue to improve the capability for predicting eruptions and to

provide decision makers and the general public with the best possible

information on high-risk volcanoes for sound decisions on land-use planning

and public safety.

• Engineering also have an important role and can contribute working on

reducing vulnerability and construction of preventive works

• Evidence suggests that the current „multidisciplinary‟ approach within physical

science needs a broader scope to include sociological knowledge and

techniques.

CONCLUSIONS

38

Enrique Guevara

CENAPRED, MEXICO

ego@cenapred.unam.mx

http://www.cenapred.unam.mx

FOTO: ALEJANDRO BONETA

39

RADIO

60 km km

Centro de adquisición y procesamiento de datos en el

CENAPRED

64 señales de telemetría, 16 computadoras

dedicadas, sistema de alertamiento y comunicación

• 20 puntos remotos de medición

9 sismómetgros

4 inclinómetros

3 Detectores de flujos

1 Cámara de video en tiempo real

1 Camara infraroja

1 Sistema automático EDM

con 4 puntos de medición

1 Radiómetros

1 Sensor infrasónico

• Otras medicionesSO2 , COSPEC

CO2 , LICOR

análisis químico de cenizas y manantiales

imágenes satelitales

MONITOREO:

• Visual

• Sísmico

• Geodésico

• Geoquímico

POPOCATEPETL MONITORING SYSTEM

40

PUESTO CENTRAL DE REGISTRO

EN CENAPRED

INSTRUMENTACION

Y MONITORE0

COMITÉ CIENTÍFICO ASESOR

POPOTEL

INTERNET

AUTORIDADES

SENEAM

PROTECCIÓN CIVIL

SEMÁFORO

VOLCÁNICO

POPOBIP

ALERT, COMUNICATION

41

POPOCATEPETL – FORECAST , DECEMBER 2000

42

POPOCATEPET ACTIVITY, DECEMBER 2000

43

DECEMBER 2000

44

The critical role of volcano monitoring in risk reduction R. I. Tilling

Scientist Emeritus, Volcano Hazards Team, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo

Park, California 94025-3591, USA, 2 January 2008

Mitigation of Volcanic Disasters in Densely Populated Areas

Flavio Dobran

A synthesis of challenges and opportunities, for reducing volcanic risk

through Land use planning in New Zealand Julia S. Becker, GNS Science,

et al

Volcanic hazards, vulnerability and risk assessment, Peter Dunkley,

Keyworth

Enciclopedya of volcanoes, Editor-in-Chief Haraldur Sigurdsson, University

of Rhode Island, U.S.A. ACADEMIC PRESS

San Diego State University, Department of geology. How volcanoes work

http://www.geology.sdsu.edu/how_volcanoes_work/Variability.html

United States Geological Survey, web page

SOME BIBLIOGRAPHY USED