Post on 01-Jan-2016
description
Energy: Can We Get More? Can We Use Less
Amy Myers Jaffe
Wallace S. Wilson Fellow for Energy Studies
James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy
Houston MegaRegionsSeptember 24, 2009
Local Government
Annual Renewable
Energy Usage (kWh)
Percentage of Total
Electricity Use
Houston 438,000,000 34%
Dallas 333,659,840 40%
Chicago 333,659,840 20%
Los Angeles 214,635,000 54%
Laurel, MD 70,000,000 33%
Top 5 U.S. Renewable Energy Purchasers
Cement production
3.0%
Gas flaring0.7%
Non-fuel hydrocarbons
0.3%Bunker fuel (non-
inventory)4.0%
Gaseous fuels20.2%
Liquid fuels36.4%
Solid Fuels35.4%
Source: EIA
Sources of CO2 (2000-2005)
Road Petroleum UseUS and China (1980-2005)
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1980
1981
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1983
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1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
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1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Thous bbl/d
US
China
Carbon Emissions from Road Petroleum UseUS and China (1980-2005)
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1980
1981
1982
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1984
1985
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1987
1988
1989
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1991
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1996
1997
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1999
2000
2001
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2003
2004
2005
Million Metric Tons
US
China
• Privately owned registered cars and trucks in the United States has risen from 138 million vehicles in 1975 to 247 million vehicles in 2005.
• US road petroleum consumption represents 33% of all global use, compared to 5% for China and 17% for all of Europe.
• Low fuel prices in the US have contributed to urban sprawl and a high average number of miles driven rate. In the US, an average individual may spend up to 2 hours a day in stop and go traffic to travel 30 miles to work.
Climate and Energy Security Policy Will Focus Heavily on Promoting or Regulating Automobile
Efficiency and Other Policies Related to Reducing Fuel Use
• Most forecasts indicate that future growth in global oil demand will come almost entirely in the transportation sector
• The US Department of Energy predicts that the transport sector will generate almost half of the 40% rise in US carbon emissions projected for 2025. Road transportation emissions constitute 75% of transportation emissions globally and in the OECD. – European demand has been flat due to effective policies. Studies show that
fuel taxes are more effective than congestion taxes, biofuels mandates, or consumer incentive rebates for purchasing fuel efficient cars.
– U.S. is now trying to fashion an effective policy: Thoughtful changes in land use planning and sustainable energy policies are needed in major US cities
– If every American would drive about 45 miles less per vehicle per week, by living closer to work, telecommuting, commuting by carpool or by using public transportation, the US could shave 20% off its demand for imported oil and related GHG emissions
– The extent to which China and India, in particular, also adopt similar policies is very important to future trends in energy and climate security
Fuelslower CO2 per gallon
4
Vehicles increase mpg
1
Driving reduce miles driven
2
Taxation reduce miles driven
3
Biofuel content in fuel mix
Fuel and vehicle efficiency
Congestion charge, transit lanes, road tolls, telecommuting
Taxation on gasoline or reduced duty on cleaner fuels: Taxation on carbon of imported fuels
Potential Issues
BiodiversityFuel vs. Food
Rebound – consumers drive efficient vehicles further
Trade Relations Problems
Examples
In general, policy makers have a range of tools to affect demand
Replace
Reduce
Offset
Objectives
Carbon Markets
5 Emissions trading scheme, carbon neutral products and services
CO2 leakage problems; verification issues; market design problems
New U.S. Efficiency Standards will Reduce U.S. Oil Demand
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
million b/dU.S. Motor Fuel Use under 3 Scenarios
6.7 million b/d savings
5.6 million b/d savings
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
mpgU.S. Light Vehicle Fuel Efficiency
under 3 Scenarios
50 mpg for new vehicles by 2020**
35 mpg for new vehicles by 2020*
Notes:*CAFE phased in according to Senate bill by 2020** Efficiency improv ements accelerate in 2015In both cases, new v ehicles penetrate the stock at 6.5% per y ear
• Fuel efficiency improvements have significant benefit, but are offset by growth in vehicle stocks and miles driven (income and “rebound” effects)
– High prices are revealing a demand response as recent miles driven data are slightly lower
• Similar arguments hold in all countries, with potential for efficiency improvement varied across countries
• Policy is multi-pronged in its approach– A technological breakthrough, such as with plug-in hybrid vehicles, could push
demand lower farther into the future. Once these alternatives are adopted, the market is forever changed
– Biofuels can induce even further reductions in demand
Congestion in US cities is worsening at an alarming rateSource: Texas A&M 2007 Urban Mobility Report
Urban Congestion is a Major Contributor to GHG Emissions and Energy Waste
Source: US Bureau of Transportation Statistics
0
50
100
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450
1982
1985
1990
1991
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1995
1996
1997
1998
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2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Gal
lon
s W
aste
d (
mill
ion
s)
Years
Annual Wasted Fuel Due to CongestionAtlanta, GA
Boston, MA-NH-RI
Chicago, IL-IN
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Detroit, MI
Houston, TX
Las Vegas, NV
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA Miami, FL
New York-Newark, NY-NJ-CT
Philadelphia, PA-NJ-DE-MD
Phoenix, AZ
San Francisco-Oakland, CA
Portland, OR-WA
Seattle, WA
Washington, DC-MD-VA
Indianapolis, IN
Atlanta, GA
Boston, MA-NH-RI
Chicago, IL-IN
Greenhouse gas emission targets will be hard to meet without changing our commuting habits
Source: APTA
Adjusting commuting habits are the single largest thing individuals can do to lower their personal carbon footprint
Source: APTA