Post on 28-Dec-2015
Energy and the Environment in the next Millennium
Talk at Seminar on
Planetary Emergencies
Erice, Sicily. August 20th 2010
Richard Wilson
Harvard University
Introduction
We have been asked to consider the role of science in the next millenium
All too often our role has been pessimistic and critical. I will be deliberately optimistic
In 18th century Ned Ludd destroyed machinery because it was destroying jobs. The Luddites failed to stop the Industrial Revolution
We must distinguish the real from the imaginary complaints
Brief History
4000 years ago man used 300 watts limited to what he ate.
3000 years ago man discovered fire, wood and charcoal for steel making.
2000 years ago man domesticated animals . A horse does 10 times the work of a man and eats more foods than a man can.
1000 years ago man used water wheels and windmills for milling corn
The last millenium
1250 Dutch windmills 20% efficient 2010 Modern windmills 40% efficient 1000 UK bought “sea-coales” Sunderland to
London 1712 Newcomen’s Steam engine 1750+ James Watt improved engine 1830 “Portable” steam engine RailRoads 1880 Internal combustion engine used oil
Cars 1939-45 Nuclear fission opened new source
King Coal’s Long Reign
1307 King Edward I of England objected to Coal“ …We instruct you to make public proclamation in the aforesaid of
Southwark that all those who wish to operate kilns…should bake them in the customary fashion from brushwood or charcoal and henceforth should make absolutely no use of sea-coal”
~1327 King Edward II tortured the people fouling the air
~1390 King Richard II tried Taxing coal
~1420 King Henry V established Commission to study the matter
I know of no commission report!
After this, only talk for 5 centuries!
King Coal still powerfulothers talk
1600 England ran out of wood, coal took over 1610 King James I (of England VI of Scotland) objected to
“tobacco-drinking” 1661 John Evelyn wrote :“this horrible smoake” 1780 William Blake in his famous poem “ Jerusalem” talks
about “ dark satanic mills” ~ 1850 the Church talks too: “From hell, Hull and Halifax, Good Lord Deliver us.” 1920 Hetherington: “ the solution to pollution is dilution” (tall chimney stacks) ~ 1935 Real Measurements begin December 1952: London Air pollution “incident”
Controlling the Environment
1952 December air pollution “incident”
Daily Mean Pollution Concentration and Daily Numbers of Deaths During the London Fog Episode
~1960 A wave of optimism
Nino and Dick Garwin measure g – 2 Russia builds first apartments since 1914 USSR- USA scientists talk and make friends Russian Astrophysicist Nicolai Kardashev
proposes a scale Carl Sagan and Freeman Dyson support
him
The Kardashev Scale
Type I a civilization harness all of the power
available on planet
Type II a civilization harness all of the power
available on a star
Type III a civilization harness all of the power
available on a single galaxy
Aim for Type I by year 3000 AD
Using more fossil fuelsRunning out? Environmental problems?
Using more nuclear fissionPublic opposition and nuclear bombs
Large scale application of fusion powerFar more optimistic than our colleagues Jeff Ongena and
MiyaharaAntimatter
The technological ability to collect antimatter in large quantities is unknown
Solar EnergyConverting sunlight into electricity by solar cells is inefficientThe 100% efficiency would still demand coating the earth’s
surface with man-made structures10% conversion efficiency and covering 10% of the earth
raise the Kardashev number to beyond 0.8Collect solar energy in stratosphere and re-radiate to earth?
(proposed by NASA in 1985)
Dyson spheres and stormsHypothetical mega structures originally described by Freeman
Dyson to completely enclose a star
Social and Environmental Upheaval
Few historians have expressed that: Kardashev scale could potentially describe
periods of social upheaval Strong risk of self-destruction
Nuclear fission gets out of control
Andrei Dimitreyvich Sakharov 1979:
“ we must not stop progress”
he thought that man kind is bright enough
to control its’ progress.
A Return to the Present Century The human race can accomplish such things.
I admit to having been pessimistic! In 1939, Arthur Clark wrote about going to the moon
I thought he was talking nonsense
This was achieved (1939-1969) in 0.03 millenia Difficulty of going to the nearest galaxy
We need a high velocity -v/c about 0.5 to get there in a lifetime
Passing at that speed through of interstellar sea of hydrogen gives immense radiation damage
This seems Insuperable
Environmental concerns
Scientists must distinguish between real concerns and neo-Luddism:
”stop the world. I want to get off”. NIMBY: Not In My Back Yard NIMNBY: Not in My Neighbor’s Back Yard BANANA: Build Absolutely Nothing
Anywhere Near Anybody” Avoid Tilting at Windmills (Cervantes):
I suggest that we can and should try to control the environment: whether man made or not
Kardashev Scale might be helpful in Major environmental catastrophes
Threat of Nuclear war Threat of Major pandemic
References
Kardashev, Nikolai (1964). "http://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi‑bin/nph‑iarticle_query?db_key=AST&bibcode=1964SvA.....8..217K&letter=.&classic=YES&defaultprint
Sagan, Carl (October 2000) [1973]. Jerome Agel. ed. Cosmic Connection: An Extraterrestrial Perspective. Freeman J. Dyson, David Morrison. Cambridge Press. ISBN 05‑21‑7830‑38. http://books.google.com/?id=lL57o9YB0mAC&pg=PA156. Retrieved 2008‑01‑01.
World Energy Outlook. Paris, France: International Energy Agency. pp. 82. ISBN 92‑64‑1094‑98. http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/2005/weo2005.pdf. Retrieved 2008‑01‑01. ]
"Key World Energy Statistics" (PDF). International Energy Agency. 2004. http://www.iea.org/dbtw‑wpd/textbase/nppdf/free/2004/keyworld2004.pdf. Retrieved 2006‑08‑10.
Quads: 1 quadrillion BTU Mtoes: Million tonnes (metric tons) of oil equivalents Dyson, Freeman J. (1966). "The Search for Extraterrestrial Technology". Perspectives in
Modern Physics (New York: John Wiley & Sons). Kaku, Michio (2005). Parallel Worlds: The Science of Alternative Universes and Our Future
in the Cosmos. New York: Doubleday. pp. 317. ISBN 0713997281. Dyson, Freeman J. Energy in the Universe Article in September 1971 Scientific American
magazine (Special September Issue on Energy)