Post on 29-Feb-2020
Emission Projections of GHGs and Air Pollutants in ASEAN: Toward the Global 2 ℃ Target
HANAOKA Tatsuya
Center for Social and Environmental SystemsNational Institute for Environmental Studies
0
International Regional Science Meeting “Land Cover/Land Use Changes and Impacts on Environment in South/Southeast Asia”
Johor Bahru, Malaysia2019 July 22-31
1
Greenhouse Gases,Short-Lived Climate Pollutants(SLCPs)
Air Pollutants
What are the situation in ASEANamong ASIA and the world?
Short-Lived Climate Pollutant Precursor of tropospheric O3
Global Anthropogenic Historical Emissions
2
CHN IND ASEAN Other Asia OECDLatin America Middle East & Afriga Economies in Transition Intl Aviation&Navigaiton
Source) made by author from EDGER 4.3.2
0
10
20
30
40
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
CO2 emission[Gt CO2]
020406080
100120140
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
SO2 emission[Mt SO2]
020406080
100120140
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
NOx emission[Mt NOx]
0100200300400500600700
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
CO emission[Mt CO]
0
100
200
300
400
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
CH4 emission[Mt CH4]
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
BC emission[Mt BC]
0
10
20
30
40
50
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
PM2.5 emission[Gt PM2.5]
0
50
100
150
200
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
NMVOC emission[Mt NMVOC]
SLCPs and air pollutants emissions from South-east and South Asia has been on the increase
Sectoral Anthropogenic Emissions in 2010 : Asia, ASEAN, OECD
3
Asia ASEAN OECD
20%
2%
24%
0%
40%
0%8%3%0%0%3%0%
2.4MtBCBC
11%1%
19%
0%
23%1%
33%
8%1%0%3%0%
0.4MtBC
2% 10%
17%
0%
42%
0%
14%
2%0%0%13% 0%
0.4MtBC
0%24%
0%0%6%
18%0%0%0%
51%
1%0%
142.3MtCH4
CH4
0%
28%
0%0%2%
28%0%0%0%
42%
0%0%
60.2MtCH4
0%25%
0%0%4%
17%0%0%0%
52%
2%0%
30.0MtCH4
CO248%
1%
34%
0%7%
0%8%1%0%1%0%0%
13.0GtCO2
39%
1%28%
1%7%0%
21%1%1%1%0%0%
1.2GtCO2
43%
0%15%1%
14%
0%
25%
0%2%0%0%0%
11.3GtCO2
Source) made by author from EDGER 4.3.2
Power
Mining
Industry
Solvent
Residential & Commercial
Waste
Transport:Road
Transport: Navigation
Transport: Aviation
Agriculture
Agricultural waste burning
Emission features between ASIA & OECD are different. (i.e. major emissions sources are different) Characteristics of ASEAN are in between ASIA and OECD.
Sectoral Anthropogenic Emissions in 2010 : Asia, ASEAN, OECD
4
Asia ASEAN OECD
NOx
CO
NMVOC
41%
0%22%
0%5%0%
21%
4%0%4%3%0%
43.3MtNOx
24%
0%
22%
0%5%0%
27%
4%0%4%
14% 0%
5.5MtNOx
27%
0%
13%0%7%0%
41%
4%3%4%1%0%
25.8MtNOx
1%5%
18%
0%
38%0%
23%
0%0%0%15% 0%
266.2MtCO
1%6%4%0%
22%
0%
33%
0%0%0%
34%
0%
70.3MtCO
3%1%7%0%
15%
0%
62%
4%0%0%8%0%
78.3MtCO
1%23%
12%
23%
23%
1%
13%0%0%0%4%0%
58.5MtVOC
0%
39%
5%13%
17%
1%
16%
0%0%0%9%0%
15.3MtVOC
1% 14%
14%
36%
6%5%
20%
2%0%0%2%0%
25.4MtVOC
Source) made by author from EDGER 4.3.2
Power
Mining
Industry
Solvent
Residential & Commercial
Waste
Transport:Road
Transport: Navigation
Transport: Aviation
Agriculture
Agricultural waste burning
To reduce tropospheric O3, combinations of mitigation measures are necessary but complicated Reduction measures on transport sector is primary important, next building sector, and next ???
Socio-economic: historical trend and future projections in Asia
5
0
20
40
60
80
100
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
GDP
per
cap
ita
(100
0 U
S$20
05/p
erso
n)Japan
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
GDP
(Tril
lion
US$
2005
) Japan
0
5
10
15
20
25
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
GDP
(Tril
lion
US$
2005
) India
05
10152025303540
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
GDP
(Tril
lion
US$
2005
) China
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Popu
latio
n (m
illio
n)
Japan600800
1000120014001600180020002200
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060Po
pula
tion
(mill
ion)
India900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Popu
latio
n (m
illio
n)
China
Historical SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5
0
4
8
12
16
1990 2010 2030 2050
GDP
per
cap
ita
(100
0 U
S$20
05/p
erso
n) ASEAN
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
GDP
(Tril
lion
US$
2005
) ASEAN
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Popu
latio
n (m
illio
n)
ASEAN
POP
GDP
GDP/POP
Characteristics of socio-economic dynamics are different depending on countries & scenariosSouth-east and South Asia has been rapidly increasing, following the past China.
05
10152025303540
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
GDP
per
cap
ita
(100
0 U
S$20
05/p
erso
n) China
0
4
8
12
16
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
GDP
per
cap
ita
(100
0 U
S$20
05/p
erso
n) India
6
Greenhouse Gases,Short-Lived Climate Pollutants(SLCPs)
Air Pollutants
How much we need to reduce?What are Science-Policy agenda?
Meaning of Stay Below 2 ℃IPCC AR5 WG3(2014) Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
7
Without more mitigation, global mean surface temperature might increase by 3.7 – 4.8℃ by 2100. To stay below 2℃, the range of GHG emissions are roughly between 30-50 Gt CO2eq in 2030. To stay below 2℃, 41–72% reductions by 2050 compared to the 2010 level are required.
Different colors show different categories which achieve the same CO2-eq concentration at the point in 2100
Corresponding to 2 ℃
41%~72%reduction
Relative to 2010 Reaching to ZERO emission in the end of the century
20502010
Source) IPCC AR5 WG3 (2014), Figure SPM.4
Comparison of NDCs and Paris Agreement Climate Proposals
8
Even if the NDCs collectively lower GHGs emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6–3.1 ℃ by 2100
Emission gaps between the INDCs and 2℃ median pathway are 14 Gt CO2eq by the unconditional INDCs, 11 Gt CO2eq by the conditional INDCs, in 2030
Source) Rogelj, J. et al (2016) Nature
In 2030Around 11-14 GtCO2eq emission GAP
Submitted (Intended) Nationally Determined
Contributions by UNFCCC nations are not enough for
achieving the 2℃ target
note) CO2emission in Asia in 2010 = around 10GtCO2
CO2emission in OECD in 2010 = around12GtCO2
For achieving 2 degree target, it is important to accelerate Low Carbon measures and SLCP measures
9
Q1:How can we fill the Gap between NDCs and 2 degree target in Asia and ASEAN?
Q2: What kinds of advantage and disadvantage, from the view points of air pollutants and SLCPs reduction, when considering deep decarbonization?
Research Questions
AIM/Enduse[Global] – Major characteristics
10
◆ Bottom-up type model with detailed technology selection framework with optimizing the total system cost, assessing technological transition
◆ Recursive dynamic model (=Calculating year by year)◆ Analyzing effects of policies such as carbon/energy tax, subsidy, regulation and so on.
World 32 regions
12 Asian regions
CO2 CH4 N2O SO2 NOx BC OC PM10 PM2.5 CO NMVOC NH3 HFCs PFCs SF6 CFCs HCFCsEnergy supply ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
Fuel mining ✔ ✔
Industry ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
Transport ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
Building ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
Waste ✔ ✔ ✔
Agriculture ✔ ✔ ✔
Others ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
✔ shows most major emitting sector✔ shows 2nd major emitting sectors✔ shows relatively emitting sectors✔ shows minor sectors
Note2) Within the same gas-type, Note1) ✔ shows the coverage of target gases in the model
Overview of Bottom-up type methodology : AIM/Endues model
11
This analysis consists of three parts;1) setting future socio-economic growths, 2) estimating future service demands of each demand sector by using service demand models, 3) analyzing combinations of mitigation options by using a technology bottom-up model
Socio-economic settings (POP,
GDP etc)
Estimation of service demands in each sectors
Selections of mitigation technologies in each
sectors
Energy consumptionNon-energy consumption
Emissions0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050GH
G e
mis
sion
s in
Asia
(Gt C
O2e
q)
Overview of mitigation measures
12
Four major groups of 200 – 300 mitigation measures on GHG and air pollutants
① End-of-pipe mitigation measures desulfurization equipment [=SO2 reduction], denitrification equipment [=NOx reduciton], dust-collecting equipment [=BC, PM reduction], fertilization management in agriculture [=N2O reduciton], manure management [=CH4, N2O reduction], waste management [=CH4 reduction]
② Improvement of quality of fuels shifting from high sulfur-content fuel to low-sulfur content fuel [=SO2 reduction]
③ Improvement of energy efficiency high-energy efficient technologies and reduction of energy [=CO2・APs・ BC reduction], Low-carbon power supply and electrification in demand side [=CO2・APs・ BC reduction]
④ Drastic energy shifting shifting from coal to renewables or natural gas [=CO2・APs・ BC reduction], diffusion of hydrogen-fuel from renewables [=CO2・APs・ BC reduction]
Effective for reducing (a) specific gas(es)
Effective for reducing a specific gas
Effective for reducing multiple gases
Effective for reducing multiple gases
Around 200 - 300 mitigation measures are set in the AIM/Enduse model. Mitigation measures are selected depending on policy push and regulation, carbon pricing, subsidy.
Baseline Anthropogenic Emissions Scenario in ASEAN
13
0
1
2
3
1990 2010 2030 2050
CO2
Emis
sion
(GtC
O2)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 2010 2030 2050
CH4
Emis
sion
(MtC
H 4)
01234567
1990 2010 2030 2050SO
2Em
issi
on (M
tSO
2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 2010 2030 2050
NO
x Em
issi
on (M
tNO
x)
0
1
2
3
4
5
1990 2010 2030 2050
PM2.
5Em
issi
on (M
tPM
2.5)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
1990 2010 2030 2050
BC E
mis
sion
(MtB
C)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1990 2010 2030 2050
CO E
mis
sion
(MtC
O)
02468
1012141618
1990 2010 2030 2050
VOC
Emis
sion
(MtV
OC)
0
5
10
15
1990 2010 2030 2050
PM10
Emis
sion
(MtP
M10
)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1990 2010 2030 2050
OC
Emis
sion
(MtO
C)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
1990 2010 2030 2050
NH 3
Emis
sion
(MtN
H 3)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
1990 2010 2030 2050
N2O
Em
issi
on (M
tN2O
)
EDGER4.3 REAS 2D scenarioReference
1) Uncertainty of PM emissions is large, 2) emissions related to non-energy are necessary to be calibrated
2 ℃Mitigation Scenario in ASEAN
14
0
1
2
3
1990 2010 2030 2050
CO2
Emis
sion
(GtC
O2)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 2010 2030 2050
CH4
Emis
sion
(MtC
H 4)
01234567
1990 2010 2030 2050SO
2Em
issi
on (M
tSO
2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 2010 2030 2050
NO
x Em
issi
on (M
tNO
x)
0
1
2
3
4
5
1990 2010 2030 2050
PM2.
5Em
issi
on (M
tPM
2.5)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
1990 2010 2030 2050
BC E
mis
sion
(MtB
C)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1990 2010 2030 2050
CO E
mis
sion
(MtC
O)
02468
1012141618
1990 2010 2030 2050
VOC
Emis
sion
(MtV
OC)
0
5
10
15
1990 2010 2030 2050
PM10
Emis
sion
(MtP
M10
)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1990 2010 2030 2050
OC
Emis
sion
(MtO
C)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
1990 2010 2030 2050
NH 3
Emis
sion
(MtN
H 3)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
1990 2010 2030 2050
N2O
Em
issi
on (M
tN2O
)
Deep decarbonization measures have multiple effect for reducing large amount of air pollutants & SLCPs
EDGER4.3 REAS 2D scenarioReference
2 ℃Mitigation Scenario in ASEAN
15
Major mitigation sectors are different by gas, i.e. combination of multi-sector measures are important. Caveats are that 1) emissions from natural sources are out of scope, 2) technology database in this
model does not consider some innovative technologies and non-energy related technologies due to the lack of information about cost, efficiency, etc.
Power & Mining Industry
Transport:road Transport:Ship & Air
Residential & Commercial Waste
Agriculture
0
1
2
3
1990 2010 2030 2050
CO2
Emis
sion
(MtC
O2)
01234567
1990 2010 2030 2050SO
2Em
issi
on (M
tSO
2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 2010 2030 2050
NO
x Em
issi
on (M
tNO
x)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1990 2010 2030 2050
CO E
mis
sion
(MtC
O)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
1990 2010 2030 2050
BC E
mis
sion
(MtB
C)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
PM2.
5Em
issi
on (M
tPM
2.5)
02468
1012141618
1990 2010 2030 2050
VOC
Emis
sion
(MtV
OC)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 2010 2030 2050
CH4
Emis
sion
(MtC
H 4)
EDGER4.3 REAS 2D scenarioReference
Asia-Pacific Integrated Modelhttp://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/index.html
ご清聴ありがとうございましたThank you for your attention
This research was supported by the previous Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund (S-12) and the current Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund (2-1908), of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, Japan.
Acknowledgment