Post on 05-Jan-2016
Emission Projections
National RPO MeetingSt. Louis, MO
November 6, 2003
Presented by:Gregory Stella
VISTAS Technical Advisor – Emission Inventories
VISTAS - Regional Haze Timeline
2004 2005 2006 200820072002 20031999 2000 2001
Regional Haze Rule
PM2.5
Designation Feb/Dec 2004
PM2.5 &Haze SIPsDec 2007
Air Quality Monitoring
Emissions Inventory
Atmospheric Modeling
VISTAS Planning
States Develop Haze SIPs
Strategy Design
Policy Interpretation
Baseline and natural conditions
BART Sources
Reasonable Progress Goals
Base year and future year strategies
Base year and future year air quality
Aug 2003:Emissions InventoryBase 2002
Dec 2003:RevisedEm InvBase 2002
Dec 2003:Modeling Protocol
Mar 2004:DraftEm Inv 2018
July 2004:Revised State Em InvBase 2002
Sept 2004:Annual Base YearModel Runs
Dec 2004:Annual Run 2018
Apr 2004:DDM in CMAQ
Oct 2004:SensitivityRuns 20183 episodes
Nov 2003:Met, Em, AQmodel testing3 episodes
Sept 2004:Revised Em Inv2018
Oct-Dec 2004:Control Strategy Inventories
Jan 2005:Sensitivity Runs 2018 episodes
Jan-Jun 2005:Control Strategy Runs 2018
Mar 2004:CART:selectsensitivityepisodes
July-Dec 2005:ObservationsConclusionsRecommendations
After Jun 2005Model Runs: e.g. Power Plant Turnover
Before Jun 2005Other Inventory: e.g. Power Plant Turnover
VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Deliverables
State Regulatory Activities
Jan-Mar 2004Define BART sources
Optional Optional
June 2004Identify BART controls
Draft 08/18/03
VISTAS Plan:Emission Inventories
Objective: Provide inventories for modeling speciated PM-2.5 and regional haze State and local agencies review, revise
2002 base year inventory Draft delivered August 2003 Revised delivered December 2003
Based on data States will submit to CERR 2018 inventory (RFP closed October 31)
Draft due Mar 2004 Revised due September 2004
Other RPO Inventory Plans
Base Year Inventory (2002) Most looking at fall 2004 (after CERR submittal)
Future Year Base Case Inventory Unplanned to date
EPA’s New“Modeling Platform”
EI, Models, and Analyses Base Year Emissions (2001) Future Year Emissions
2015 and 2020 now, but no 2018 scheduled To be available by PMTR final analysis
Eventual coordination with Section 812 Study Under review by SAB Latest state-of-knowledge for growth & control
http://www.epa.gov/air/sect812/blueprint.html
Emission Projection Coordination Needs
Common Inventories 2002 NEI Submittal RPO Data Exchange Format Canada & Mexico
Common Future Year(s) 2010 (2009 ?) & 2018
Common Base Case Controls Clear Skies, Nonroad Diesel, BART, etc.
Common Growth Methods EGAS, IPM, NONROAD, VMT, etc.
Key Issues to Resolve
Methods for projection Model or ad hoc calculation
Available growth & control information Federal, Regional, or Local Regulation Growth Rates
EGAS 4.0 (+), New VMT methods Model specific input data
IPM, MOBILE6, NONROAD, CMU-NH3 Source specific data
Enforcement action & consent decrees Retirements & planned units
Proposed Plan (Preliminary “Base Case”)
Use as much existing information as possible Start with latest available projection
documentation and control assumptionsEPA’s Nonroad Diesel / HDD / Clear Skies or
Preview of PM Transport Rule (PMTR)Use growth & control programs as starting pointMake VISTAS-specific where local input available
EGU, Non-EGU Point, Highway, Nonroad, NH3
Coordinate with other RPOs
Proposed Plan (Preliminary “Base Case” – 2)
Use stakeholder review for preliminary “Base Case” laugh test issues Are we *WAY* off on any factors?
Example: Furniture Manufacturing in NC
Enables cursory review of assumptions and tees up data for more extensive final “Base Case” development
Proposed Plan (Preliminary “Base Case” – 3)
What about BART? Identify sources by January 2004
Opportunity to include rough estimate of sources and controls in preliminary “Base Case”
Define BART controls by June 2004Fine tune for final “Base Case”Stakeholder participation in further identification of
sources and controls
Proposed Plan (Final “Base Case”)
Build on preliminary “Base Case” Utilize “interest groups” by source sector Groups to review, assess, and modify
Methods, models, and factors for projection
No impact on preliminary “Base Case” generation or planned sensitivity runs
VISTAS Next Steps
Award Projections RFP Initiate work in November
Define Issues for “Special Interest” Teams EGU Non-EGU Point Agriculture Fires Mobile (On and Off-Road) Stationary Area
Special Interest Issues EGU Sources
method for projection (IPM, Haiku, Facility provided, other?) growth rates / energy efficiency assumed control programs / emission rates
base and future year BART identification
shared generation demands planned units / capacity / retirements utilization rates “typical” operation for base & projection year usage of CEM stack parameters
making sure correct variable stack parameters (hourly differences) changes in stack parameters due to scrubber application
Special Interest Issues (2)
Non-EGU Point Sources growth rates / energy efficiency assumed control programs
base and future year BART identification
stack parameters making sure correct
planned units / retirements
Special Interest Issues (3)
Agriculture improved NH3 estimates from animal / crop
operations growth rates / moratoriums temporal schedule for VISTAS states CAFOs
Special Interest Issues (4)
Fires temporal and spatial distribution in base year “typical” fire inventory for use in base and
projection year changes in fuel loadings / forest types
Special Interest Issues (5)
Mobile Sources (On and Offroad) VMT or engine growth control programs
I/M, LEV, RFP, fuel characteristics Vehicle/fleet mix
Hybrid introduction Speed data Temperature application (same in base as is future) 3-D aircraft emissions nonroad distribution issues (e.g., CMV in WV) shipping lane information
Special Interest Issues (6)
Stationary Area growth rates / energy efficiency assumed control programs
base and future year PM transport factor application paved / unpaved road estimate improvements urban sprawl
Canadian Emission Projections
Based on 1995 CAC version 2 Collaboration of EC and provinces & territories Still maintains point source confidentiality
2010 / 2020 Projections: Transport Modeling Province / source sector growth rates
Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) report “Canada's Emissions Outlook: An Update, December 1999”.
National CAC forecast is the sum of the provincial and territorial forecasts
Equivalent to a “Control Case” or “Clear Skies Case” (i.e., not yet on the books)
Canadian Emission Projections (2)
“Base Case” was backed out Incorporates all the emissions reduction
measures that are already in place Tier 1 and NLEV vehicles Tier 2 and heavy duty vehicle NMHC, NOx, PM
standards Low sulfur on-road diesel and gasoline
Inputs from provincial and territorial governments and private industry have been incorporated into the forecast
Canadian Emission Projections (3)
“Control Case” includes: Canadian Standards for PM and Ozone
Reductions in emissions of SO2 and NOx Canadian Acid Rain strategy
In both Base and Control, NH3 held constant in all years
Mexican Emission Projections
No known inventories of projected Mexican data
Most likely will hold constant in future years
Proposed Plan (To Work)
Stakeholder participation a must! Nothing is better than local specific data VISTAS working with our sources to best define
activity and emissions in our area
Utilize other data (RPO/EPA/FLM) as available to aide in coordinated decisions Where can we coordinate IMMEDIATELY or
preface our plans to allow coordinated effort?