Post on 12-Jul-2015
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
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Key Digital Trends—15 Things to
Know for 2015
Noah Elkin
Executive Editor
December 11, 2014
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Agenda
5 key trends you need to know
5 emerging trends that might get big (but might not)
5 things you don’t have to worry about
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
5 Key Trends You Need
to Know
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
1) “Responsive”
is your
watchword
for 2015
Smartphones
Connected Consoles
Connected
Consoles
Desktop PCs
Smart Homes
Laptop PCs
Connected TVs
Ambient
Surfaces
Connected
Cars
Wearable
Technology
Tablets
Brands face the imperative to be present, actionable
and relevant across an ever-expanding array of devices,
interfaces and touchpoints
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Being
responsive is
a larger
metaphor for
what brands
need to do to
succeed in a
digitally
focused,
real-time
world
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
2) Mobile
touches
everything:
content,
commerce,
advertising,
industry
Context becomes a key attribute in a mobile-driven world
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
In a year
punctuated by
mobile-related
milestones,
one stands
out: 2015 will
see mobile
search reach
the tipping
point
By year-end 2015, mobile will
represent 70% of the total US
search audience
Mobile will come to dominate
nearly all key search metrics
– Share of organic traffic
– Paid clicks
– Search ad spending
The one exception: ROI
– ROI on mobile search is improving but it will
continue to trail desktop search ROI in 2015
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
3) The future of advertising lies with automation
Programmatic buying isn’t just for
digital display media anymore
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Small
investments
outside of
display today
will open the
door to big
opportunities
tomorrow
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
4) Cross-device targeting achieves scale
Facebook, with the relaunch of Atlas, has shown it can work
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Our ability
to reach and
target
consumers
still outpaces
our ability to
measure and
attribute their
actions
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
5) The
internet of
things (IoT) is
becoming … a
thing
It could quickly develop into a multitrillion-dollar market
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
The IoT could
soon be
integrated
into our
homes,
offices and
vehicles: Are
you prepared?
44% of business
executives worldwide
have never heard of the
internet of things
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
5 Emerging Trends That
Might Get Big
(But Might Not)
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
1) Wearables are not quite ready-to-wear
Wearable tech has a lot of potential, but the emphasis
has been more on the tech than the wearable
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
The market(s)
for wearable
devices could
be huge ...
depending on
what you
measure (and
when)
19MWearable band device
shipments worldwide
(Canalys)
What’s included:
Smart bands
Smart watches
22MSmart wearable device
shipments worldwide
(CCS Insight)
What’s included:
Smart watches
Wristbands
Wearable cameras
Glasswear
Tokens/Clip-ons
Jewelry
2014
Source: CCS Insight, Aug 2014; Canalys, Sep 2014
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
The market(s)
for wearable
devices could
be huge ...
depending on
what you
measure (and
when)
Forecasters are
betting on watches
being the category
standout
What’s included:
Smart watches
Wristbands
Wearable cameras
Glasswear
Tokens/Clip-ons
Jewelry
135MSmart wearable device
shipments worldwide
(CCS Insight)
330MSmart watch
shipments worldwide
(ON World)
What’s included:
Smart watches
2018
Source: ON World, June 2014; CCS Insight, Aug 2014
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
2) With mobile
payments, the
answer is still
“wait till next
year”
Apple’s entry into the proximity payments fray
makes it worth keeping a closer eye on
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Our prediction: Mobile point-of-sale payments
will hit their acceleration phase in 2016
$0
$23
$47
$70
2014 2015 2016 2017
$64.0
$27.5
$8.9$3.5
Proximity mobile payment transaction value (billions)
Source: eMarketer, Sep 2014
Ramp-up point
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
3) Social
commerce
offers promise
Look to the success of chat apps in Asia-Pacific
for a model of how things could go
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Apps like
China’s
WeChat have
evolved from
messaging to
commerce
Images courtesy of Counterpoint Technology Market Research
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
4) Consumers are so bombarded by content that
cutting through the clutter will become harder
We’re in danger of moving from “ads as content”
to “content as ads”
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Content budgets
are rising for
B2C and B2B
brands
More money
means more
pressure to
demonstrate
results
Keep an eye out for signs of “content overload”
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
5) Cord-
cutting: Still
more hype
than reality,
but for how
long?
US consumers are more likely to spend less on
pay TV than spend nothing at all … for now
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
That’s why you need to pay attention to
consumers’ evolving video consumption habits
5 hours 28 minutes
Total time spent/day with video by US adults
TV
4 hrs 33 min
83% of video time
Mobile
33 min
10% of video time
PC
22 min
7% of video time
Up 0.9%
vs. 2013
No change
vs. 2013
Up 50%
vs. 2013
Source: eMarketer, Sep 2014
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
5 Things You Don’t Need
to Worry About
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
The First Thing You Don’t
Need to Worry About in 2015
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
The desktop
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
The desktop-only
audience is in
decline
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
The Second Thing You Don’t
Need to Worry About in 2015
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
QR codes
They’re not going to be
the “next big thing”
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Adoption
among US
smartphone
owners has
begun to
plateau
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
The Third Thing You Don’t
Need to Worry About in 2015
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Social TV
The conversation is
pretty quiet
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Lack of
engagement
limits
marketer
commitment
Consumers’ top four
second-screen
activities have nothing
to do with the show
they’re watching
CONSUMERS MARKETERS
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
The Fourth Thing You Don’t
Need to Worry About in 2015
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Baby boomers
Unless you’re selling
healthcare, you don’t
need to worry about
boomers
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Healthcare is
the only major
expenditure
that increases
as consumers
age
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
The Fifth Thing You Don’t
Need to Worry About in 2015
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Privacy and
security
Wait: What?!?
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Concerns
about digital
privacy and
security have
risen without
affecting
usage
These trends are changing the discipline of marketing
Timeless
Marketers have always
been responsible for knowing
the customer.
Marketers have always been
responsible for defining what to
market, and how to market.
Marketers have always
protected the brand promise.
2012
Understanding each customer
as an individual.
Creating a system of engagement
that maximizes value creation
at every touch.
Designing your culture and brand
so they are authentically one.
2014
Know each customer in context.
Innovate and scale personally
relevant and rewarding
experiences.
Co-create with customers,
employees and partners.
@jay_henderson © 2014 IBM Corporation
@jay_henderson © 2014 IBM Corporation
Beyond marketing: Leaders are creating systems of engagement
@jay_henderson © 2014 IBM Corporation
Beyond marketing: Leaders are creating systems of engagement
@jay_henderson © 2014 IBM Corporation
Continuous customer engagement is challenging, but rewarding
Siloed systems and processes
Limited insight of acustomer’s behavioracross touch points—increasingly outsidethe company
Lack of skills
@jay_henderson © 2014 IBM Corporation
© 2014 eMarketer Inc.
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Noah Elkin
Key Digital Trends—15 Things
to Know for 2015
Key Digital Trends for 2015: What's in Store—and Not in
Store—for the Coming Year
Mobile Search Trends: Dominating SERPs While Venturing
into Apps and Anticipatory Search
2014 Programmatic Advertising Forecast: Digital Display
Spending Broadening Beyond Open Exchanges
Social Marketing Update: Eight Trends to Help Prepare for
2015