Electricity Sector Reforms and the Impact of Demand Side Management (DSM) in

Sri Lanka

Minoli D. Amarasinghe1, John Foster1 Colin Brown1 and Liam Wagner2

University of Queensland1

and

Griffith University2

IAEE Conference

20 June, 2017

1

Outline

1. Background of Sri Lanka Electricity Sector

2. Future projections of Demand and Generation Growth

3. Introduction of DSM and its implementation to decrease diesel generation

4. Methodology of research paper

5. Analyse DSM results received for 2012 – 2015 and how DSM could decrease high costly thermal liquid fuel generation, and overall generation cost

6. Bulk Supply Consumption by Industry, Hotel and General Purpose

Targeting Bulk Consumption to implement DSM

2

3Source: Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) Statistical Digest 2015

Background of Sri Lanka’s Electricity Sector

Composition of Installed Generation Capacity (MW)-2015

GDP Growth (%) and Gross Sales (GWh)

4

Demand: Compilation of data from CEB GDP: Compilation of data from the World Bank Data Base

Growth in Electricity Generation and Sales in Sri Lanka

Source: Compilation of data from the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB)

Demand and Generation Projection

5

Source: Compilation of data from the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) LTGEP (2015)

Peak Demand Projections and Corresponding Growth Rate (%)

Concepts of Demand Side Management (DSM)

Clark W. Gellings View• Peak Clipping

• Load Shifting

• Conservation

• Flexibility of load shape

6

Source: Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB); http://www.ceb.lk/sub/knowledge/demandside.html

Methodology: DSM to Decrease Generation Costs & Emissions

• Q* = Sum of total dispatch of power plants in each Half Hour.

• Demand = Demand for 48 half hours segments a day, for 365 days and for 4 years

• Price = Prices is based on the least marginal cost dispatch method. Dispatch of each generator with respect to the Marginal Cost (ascending)

𝑖 ∈ 𝐺𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑠

𝑆𝑝𝑜𝑡 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 = 𝑀𝐶𝑖 𝑡ℎ

• This will provide the Half Hourly Spot price.

𝑆𝑃𝐷 =

𝑖=1

𝑛

𝑔𝜌𝑖 ∗ 𝑆𝑃𝐻𝐻

• This will provide the emissions curtailed

𝐸𝐻𝐻 =

𝑖=1

𝑛

𝑔𝜌𝑖 ∗ 𝐸𝐼𝐹𝑖

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Methodology

• Implementing Demand Side Management (DSM) would enable to determine new price for each half hour (HH) dispatch generators based on the marginal cost of each generating unit

𝑄𝑑1 = 𝑄𝑠1 = 𝑄𝑠 −

𝑗=1

𝑛

𝐷𝑆𝑀𝑗

8

𝑸𝒔

𝑸𝒔 = 𝑸𝒅

𝑬𝒔&𝒅 = 𝑸𝒔𝟏 = 𝑸𝒅 − 𝑫𝑴𝑺𝒅 = 𝑸𝒅𝟏

P

P1

P2

DQ1Q2

Electricity System Installed Generation Capacity by Marginal Cost

9Source: Compilation of data from the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) during field work of 2015 & 2016

2012 – Half Hourly Dispatch based on Marginal Cost of Generators

10Source: Compilation of data from the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) during field work of 2015 & 2016

2012 Generation Costs and Weighted Average DSM (%)

11Source: Results Based on Electricity Market Modelling and Analysis

2012 - 2015 Monthly Generation Cost and DSM (%)

12Source: Results Based on Electricity Market Modelling and Analysis

2012 Monthly Emissions Reduction due to DSM

13Source: Results Based on Electricity Market Modelling and Analysis

2012 - 2015 Monthly Emissions Reduction due to DSM

14Source: Results Based on Electricity Market Modelling and Analysis

Bulk Consumption By Time of Use (TOU)

15Source: Compilation of data from the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) during field work of 2015 & 2016

Sri Lanka Electricity Distribution Region

Source: Compilation of data from the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB)

Industry Bulk Consumption Composition By TOU and Region

17Source: Compilation of data from the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) during field work of 2015 & 2016

2012 – 2015 – DSM (%) Contribution from Industry Bulk Consumers

18Source: Results Based on Electricity Market Modelling and Analysis

How to implement DMS with Bulk Supply Customers• Regions with well developed districts/provinces

dominate the electricity consumption

Industry, GP and Hotel sector dominated by a particular province/district

Within each Region there are very developed districts/provinces and quite under developed districts/provinces.

Target industries in quite well developed districts/provinces with discriminatory DMS programs, including effective tariffs systems (prince incentives) and other financial incentives to reduce the load particular during peak times

There could also be programs to incentivize industrial customers in developed districts to invest on roof-top solar panels with good battery capacity to reduce the on-peak load taken from the national grid

Thank you

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Demand Curve of Varying Days

21Source: Compilation of data from the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB)