Post on 11-Mar-2020
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13th November 2006 GOCE-CT-2004-505420
Effects of climate change on the hydrological cycle: Flood risk
management Dr. Steven Wade & Prof. Paul SamuelsHR Wallingford
European Commission COP12 Side Event Climate change and the impact on waterNovember 13th 2006, EU Pavilion
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Climate impacts on the hydrological cycle and rising sea levels
Evidence of intensification of the global hydrological cycle (e.g. Huntington, 2005)Increase in intense rainfall and floods in some regions Some estimate 150 - 200 million people displaced by the middle of the century due to rising sea levels, more frequent floods and more intense droughts (Stern Review, 2006)
Source: Stern, 2006
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Changes between the control period (1961-1990) and future projection (2070-2099). HIRHAM, 12 km spatial resolution, SRES A2 scenario
Impacts of climate change in EuropeWarmer and wetter winters Increase in magnitude and frequency of intense rainfall
After Feyen (2006)
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UK changes in rainfall and river flows (2020s A2 – based on 6 GCMs, Vidal and Wade, 2006)
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Flash Flooding
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Lowland Flooding
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Estuary flooding
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Human impactsLargest risk to life in an event
Storm surgeMost frequent cause of fatalities
Flash FloodsLargest scale of evacuation
Major river basin floodsGreatest economic damage
Major city?
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ScalesCatchments
less than 20 km2 to over 200,000 km2
Storm surgeRegional (Atlantic) to multinational (N Sea)
Time scale (development / warning / duration)
Minutes - pluvial in urban areasHours – flash floods, surgesDays – major basins, surgesWeeks - E.g. Elbe and Odra floods
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Major natural disasters 1950-2002
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Source: European
Environment Agency
River floods 1998-2002
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Impacts of some European Floods
1953 DE,NL,UK N Sea 2200+ ? ? C1994 IT R.Po 64 10,000 12.5 F,P1995 DE, NL Rhine 28 200,000? 3.5 P1997 IT Sarno 300 ? ? F1997 CZ, PL Odra 100 200,000 4.5 F,P2002 CZ, DE Elbe 37 85,000+ 21.1 F,P2003 FR Rhône 6 27,000 0.7 F
Damages in € BillionC - Coastal surge, F - Flash flood, P - Lowland Plains flood
Date Countries Location Deaths Evacuees Damage Type
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FLOODsite OverviewEC grant to budget of €10 MillionComplemented by other fundsStart date 1 March 2004Duration of 5 years35 “Tasks”36 PartnersOver 150 research team members13 Countries (BE, CZ, DE, ES, FR, GR, HU, IT, NL, PL, PT, SE, UK)
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Project VisionOur research will improve the management of flood risks in the EU and more broadly. FLOODsite will benefit the citizens of Europe, by reducing flood risks and improving resilience in the face of floods. The partners will work together to implement the research results in practice.The team will produce peer-reviewed scientific publications from their research
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Theme 1 – Advancing Scientific Knowledge & Understanding
Theme 1 – Advancing Scientific Knowledge & Understanding
Project StructureTh
eme
6 –
Proj
ect
Net
wor
king
& H
arm
onis
atio
nThem
e 7 –Project M
anagement
Theme 5 – Training ActivitiesKnowledge Transfer, Training and Uptake, Guidance & Tools
Theme 3 – Integration(Rivers, Estuaries & Coasts)
Theme 4 – Pilot Application SitesEstuaries
Rivers &
estuaries Coas
ts &
est
uari
es
Ris
k A
nal
ysis
1.1 – Hazard (Sources)
1.2 – Hazard (Pathways)
1.3 – Vulnerability: receptor exposure & consequences
Theme 2 – Innovative Mitigation & Sustainable Management
Risk M
anagem
ent
2.1 – Pre-Flood Measures
2.2 – Flood Event Management
2.3 – Post-Event Activities
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Shared definition of risk
Risk = Probability “x” Consequence
Hazard(intensity,
probability)
Vulnerability(social, economic,ecological values,
susceptibility)
Risk(probability of
social, economic and ecological
damages)
Exposure
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Flood Risk Analysis Pathway(e.g. beach, defence and floodplain)
Source(river or sea)
Receptor(e.g. people in the floodplain)
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Flood Risk Management Practice
Post-flood measures
Flood event measures
Real time risk management
Pre-flood measures Preventive risk management
Forecasting and warning, reservoir control, evacuation, rescue, etc.
Spatial planning, contingency plans,
flood defence (mitigation) measures,
asset management insurance,
preparedness, etc.
Relief, clean-up, reconstruction, regeneration,
etc.
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hydrological
cycle
socio-economic system
Defences
vulnerability
exposureland use
climate
flood hazard
Interactions in flood risk systemFlood R
isk
After Feyen (2006)
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Flood research challengesData
European data on these extreme eventsMulti-hazards
Debris and sediments in floods– Generation, transport, fate, pollutantsJoint probability of occurrenceManagement options
Uncertainty assessment and modellingInfrastructure performance
Condition assessment, real-time of strength
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Flood research challengesFlood movement in urban areas
All sources of water, pathogens, pollutants, system performance under climate change
Scenarios for hazard and riskLinking social, governance, technology & policy scenarios; scaling issues, feed-backs
Socio-economic and institutional factorsLink to spatial planning & land use, adaptive strategies, resilience, tolerable risk
Implementation of research knowledge
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Pilot Study Sitesof FLOODsite
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1. River Elbe Basin
2. River Tisza Basin
3. Flash flood Basins
4. River Thames Estuary
5. River Scheldt Estuary
6. River Ebro Delta Coast
7. German Bight Coast
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7
2
4
6
3
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Foreseen productsBest Practice Guide on Flood risk Analysis and Flood Risk Management aimed at communicating all the relevant findingsPublic education material (= summary)Book on pilots foreseen (Schanze (ed.))
Well-functioning website (www.floodsite.net)Games, role plays a/o public DSS-demos
FLOODmaster (master courses Dresden & Padova)
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Networking and disseminationMapped the project links
About 150 projectsNational and EUIn dialogue with CRUE
Communication and dissemination planRecognises 7 categories of “user”Different dissemination routesUptake and implementation is separate
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Relationship to EU (proposal) directive for flood risk management
Preliminary assessment (Art. 4-6), e.g.Likelihood of future floods Consequences of floods security of flood defences
Flood risk maps (Art. 7 & 8), a.o.Guidelines on flood hazard mapping Flood probabilityProjected depths and velocityPotential damages
Flood risk management plans (Art.9 to 12), incl.The flood risk management cycle Preparedness Spatial planning and land use International rivers
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FLOODsite: What are the benefits?Robust and defensible policyImproved public safety
Reduction of riskMitigation of residual risks
More reliable methodsBetter use of expenditure
On researchOn operation and maintenanceOn design and construction
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Limpopo
Zambezi
Save
Xai Xai
Mozambique
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Implementation of flood risk management
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To conclude …Europe is leading the world with FLOODsiteFLOODsite will improve the management of all types of floodingHowever ...
Floods are natural and randomWe cannot eliminate floods but we can prepare for themFLOODSite will provide tools for adapting to climate change For further information www.floodsite.net
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www.floodsite.net
sdw@hrwallingford.co.uk