Effect of interventions in vehicular sector on air quality

TERI, New Delhi

Scope

Traffic congestion and Traffic congestion and pollution pollution

Older fleetsOlder fleets

Sprawling citiesSprawling cities

Smaller cities- even less Smaller cities- even less managedmanaged

Upcoming cities-PanjimUpcoming cities-Panjim

Different types and usage of vehiclesDifferent types and usage of vehicles

• Unregistered vehicles• Overloading• Limited maintenance

Debate

• Contribution of vehicular sector

• Which vehicles for which pollutants

• Road map for future norms

• Effect on air quality

Are the current BS norms enough to meet air quality standards ?

Do we need to continually advance them ?

What is the effect of introducing better quality fuel in India and its cities ?

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TERI integrated modelling approach

Objective : To study the impact of improvement of fuel quality and vehicular emission norms in India on the ambient air quality, and subsequently on the human health

Sumit Sharma, Suresh Jain, C Sitalakshami, Richa Mahtta, Anju Goel, Atul Kumar, Divya Datt, Seema Kundu, Prateek Sharma , TERI, New Delhi

Vehicle-wise energy consumption and projections (2010-2030)

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Scenario analysis

Scenario Description BAU Based on the current plans and policies of the government

without any further intervention. BS-III all across the country and BS-IV in 13 cities

ALT-I Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 ALT-II Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2020 ALT-III Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-V

in 2020 ALT-IV Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-VI

in 2020

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Effect of advancement of vehicular emission norms

Scenario DescriptionBAU Based on the current plans and policies of the government without any

further intervention. BS-III all across the country and BS-IV in 13 citiesALT-I Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015ALT-II Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2020ALT-III Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-V in 2020ALT-IV Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-VI in 2020

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Reduction in PM2.5 conc. (ALT-IV-2030)

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Avoided mortalities- ALT-IV scenario

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Benefits could be larger ..

• Health impacts of only PM • NOx, CO, VOCs and O3 may additionally or

synergistically aggravate the impacts

• Agricultural impacts of Ozone and other pollutants

• Climate benefits are additional• Reduction in PM will reduce black carbon

concentrations too

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• Aim- To assess the improvement in air quality due to interventions in transport sector

• City: Bangalore

• Air quality model – CMAQ

• Emission inventory – Source apportionment study (2x2 km²)• PM, NOx, CO, SO2, VOCs

• Meteorological fields – WRF models runs

• Boundary conditions- from National scale runs

• Period – December, 2010 (to assess worst season air quality)

City level analysisSumit Sharma, V. Ramanathan

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Emission Inventory – Source apportionment study

• Total pollution load

• PM10 - 54.4 T/d

• NOX – 217.4 T/d

• SO2 – 14.6 T/d

PM10

Transport42%

Road Dust20%

Domestic 3%

DG Set7%

Industry14%

Hotel0%

Construction14%

NOx

Transport68%

Domestic 1%

DG Set23%

Hotel0%Industry

8%

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Air quality modelling- Dec, 2010 (baseyear)

Widespread violation of PM2.5 standard in Bangalore

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Model comparison

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Future projections

• Future year 2030

• Growth assessed based on city development plans, mobility plans

• Annual growth of 3-4% assumed based on projected demands

• Domestic sector projections based on population growth • Rest other emissions assumed to be same as current

• BAU scenario• Transport sector emissions remained almost same as current

levels • Introduction of BS-IV norms negated the growth in emissions

caused by incerased number of vehicles

• ALT scenario • BS-VI introduced from 2020• Transport sector emissions reduced by 50%.

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Future projections : Effect on air quality

• 20% reduction in PM2.5 concentrations• Many areas start meeting the standards

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Future projections : EC also reduced . may affect the local climate

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Conclusions

• Uniform fuel quality ‘One country, one fuel and one standard’ in India helps in reducing emissions

• Effects of advancing the norms are substantial at both National and urban scales

• A city like Bangalore, can achieve the standards with introduction of advanced norms.

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Thanks