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EconomicImpactsofCaltrain Modernization

DR.JONHAVEMANCHIEFECONOMIST

BAYAREACOUNCILECONOMICINSTITUTE

September10,2012

• LaunchedbySouthernPacificin1863,Caltrainpassesthrough17cities,spanning3countiesandservesover3millionresidents.

• Today,Caltrainprovidesover40,000dailytrips andisgrowingrapidlyalongwiththefast-growingtechnologycompaniesofSiliconValley,thePeninsulaandSanFrancisco.

THESYSTEM

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THEPROJECT• Replacementofexistingdiesellocomotivesandtraincarswith

ElectricMultipleUnit(EMU)trains.

• Constructionofassociatedpowerinfrastructure,knownastheOverheadContactSystem(OCS).

• InstallationofPositiveTrainControl(PTC),amodernsignalingandtraincontrolsystem.• FederalmandaterequiresPTCby2015.

ImagecourtesyofCaltrain

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COST

ProjectComponent EstimatedCost($Millions)

ElectrificationInfrastructure 785

AdvancedSignalSystem 231

EMUTrains 440

Total 1,456

BayAreaCouncilEconomicInstituteCalculationsbasedonCaltraindata.Figuresinyear-of-expendituredollars.

ECONOMICBENEFITSComeinthreecategories:

uLocaljobsandeconomicactivityduringconstruction,

uChangesinrealpropertyvalues,and

uTheeconomicvalueassociatedwithimprovedservice

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CONSTRUCTIONIMPACTS• Ofthe$1.456totalprojectcost,itisestimatedthataround

$1.11billionwillbespentintheBayArea.

• Theresultingimpactof$1.11billioninconstructionexpenditure:• 4,500FTEjob-yearsintheconstructionsectoralone.• Almost9,600FTEjob-yearsintotal.• $951millioninincreasedeconomicoutput(GDP).

PROPERTYVALUEIMPACTS• TheCaltrainModernizationProgramislikelytoincrease

propertyvaluesandpropertytaxesnearCaltrain:• Enhancedserviceintheformoffastertriptimesand/ormore

frequentservicewillaffectthedesirabilityofpropertiesnearCaltrainstations.

• Environmentalfactorssuchasimprovedairquality,reducedvibrationlevelsandalterednoisepatternswillaffectpropertiesnearthetracks,andnewpowerfacilitiesmayaestheticallyimpactadjacentproperties.

• Increasesinpropertyvalueswillalsohaveaneffectonoverallpropertytaxcollections.

• ThetotalvalueoftheCaltrainModernizationProgramonpropertyvaluesisapositive$904.5million.

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TOTALIMPACT• Overalleconomicbenefitsofupto$2.5billion.• Almost9,600FTEjob-years.• PropertyvaluesinlocationsnearCaltrainstationstoincreaseby

upto$1billion, stemmingfromenhancedservice.• Benefitstoridersofupto$371millionintimesavings• Increaseinpropertytaxrevenuesbyupto$59millionforlocal

governments.• Generationof$71millioninstateandlocaltaxes.

OTHERBENEFITS• Reducesgreenhousegasemissionsandunhealthydiesel

particlesbyreplacingexistingdieseltrainswithelectrictrains.

• Electrification/Modernizationincreasesridershipcapacityoftheoverallsystem,allowingCaltraintokeeppacewithrecord,growingridership.

• Improvedservicewillattractmoreridersandincreaserevenue,reducingtheannualsubsidyrequiredtooperatethesystem.

• IncreaseddemandforTransitOrientedDevelopment.

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TransbayTransitCentercross-section.RenderingcourtesyoftheTransbayJointPowersAuthority

DR.JONHAVEMANCHIEFECONOMIST

BAYAREACOUNCILECONOMICINSTITUTEBACEI@BAYAREACOUNCIL.ORG

WWW.BAYAREAECONOMY.ORG