Post on 03-Apr-2018
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Junhua Wu
Economic and Political Outlook on
China Under the Xi-Li Era
WWICSSeminar,May 30,
2013
Senior ScholarWoodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
May 30, 2013
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Does it make sense to forecast theshort-term economy?
Is it true that the consumptiondemand is weak?
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Government determines short-term economic growth performance.
Q. Does it make sense to forecast the
short-term economy?
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2011
2012
Real GDP Growth Rate(%)
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
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Q. Is it true that the consumptiondemand is too weak?
Getting Rid of the Dependence on High Growth is Essential.
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Ratio to GDP GDP Consumption
Trend of Nominal GDP and Consumption Demand Growth(1979-2012)
(%) (%)
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.
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Bureaucratic Capitalism is an
Impediment to sustainable growth
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1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
GDO(left) Fical Revenu(right)
Central Gov't Revenue(right) Fiscal Revenue (left)
Central Gov't (left)
(1993=1) (Ratio to GDP)
Government Is the Biggest Beneficiary of Economic Growth
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RedGuard ()
Q. How Far Could Xi Go?-From Political Point of View
Features of Xi Jinping administration
Second Generation of Senior Officials () Maintaining current regime seen as their mission
Educated Youth () Destroyers of existent order as well as idealist
Better understanding to disadvantaged population
1966-68 Middle & High School ()/ 1977-79College Graduates ()
Advance education background
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Five Nos
No multi-party system
No alteration of ideology
No separation of powers & bicameral system
No federal system, and
No privatization
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Seven DontsDont talk about universal values.
Dont talk about freedom of press.
Dont talk about civil society.
Dont talk about civil rights.
Dont talk about mistakes in the Partys history.Dont talk about crony capitalism.
Dont talk about judicial independence.
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Two No-Repudiates
1. Dont use what happened after the1978 economic reform began to
repudiate what happened before it.
2. Dont use what happened before1978 to repudiate what came after.
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Three pillars that help
the Party survive
- Enhancing ideological control
- Chasing the Chinese dream to embrace
the nationalist sentiment, and- Cracking down corruptions
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Three pillars that help
the Party survive
- Enhancing ideological control
- Chasing the Chinese dream to embrace
the nationalist sentiment, and- Cracking down corruptions
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Take-away Question
How should the world deal with a wealthierand stronger China if it does notfundamentally change its political systembut keeps its door open to the world through
trade, investment and other economicactivities?
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Thank you!