DROUGHT MONITORING IN SOUTHERN AFRICA DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

Bradwell J. Garanganga

SADC DROUGHT MONITORING CENTRE

e.mail: garangan@dmc.co.zw

Website: http://www.dmc.co.zw

International Workshop on Climate and Land Degradation

Lamgando Conference Hall, Impala Hotel,

ARUSHA, United Republic of Tanzania, 11-15 December 2006

SADC Drought Monitoring Centre

Responsible for monitoring and predicting of climatic extremes such as floods and droughts in a timely manner with respect to their intensity, geographical extent, duration and impact upon various socio-economic sectors and giving early warning for the formulation of appropriate

strategies to combat their adverse effects thus contributing to minimizing their negative impacts.

Presentation Format1. Introduction

2. History of the SADC DMC

3. Role of the SADC DMC

4. Tools / Products

• Climate monitoring

• Climate Prediction

5. Attachments/ Capacity building

6. Climate Outlook Fora, brief

7. Challenges & Opportunities

8. Planned activities

9. Summary

Location of SADC member countries

15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 55.00

-30.00

-25.00

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

Seychelles

Mauritius

DRC

Tanzania

AngolaZambia

MozambiqueZimbabwe

Namibia Botswana

South Africa Swaziland

Lesotho

Malawi

INTRODUCTION

The Drought Monitoring Centre (DMC) is an institution of Southern African Development Community (SADC) comprising 14 member states with well over 220 million inhabitants.

The SADC countries experience recurrent climatic extremes such as droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, which often result in negative impacts such as land degradation

The region is also susceptible to epidemiological diseases such as malaria and cholera that are influenced by climatic factors.

Extreme climate variation impact negatively socio-economic development of the Member States.

12/12/200612/12/2006 55

DroughtsDroughts

1 2 / 1 2 / 2 0 0 61 2 / 1 2 / 2 0 0 6 1 01 0

G u l l i e s c a u s e d b y C y c l o n e G u l l i e s c a u s e d b y C y c l o n e E l i n eE l i n e i n d u c e d F l o o d si n d u c e d F l o o d s

HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

Established in 1989/90 together with now ICPAC by African Gvtswith WMO as Executing Agency. Together responsible for 22 countries of Eastern and Southern Africa

Central objective to have regional approaches in mitigating adverse climate impacts to socioeconomic developments.

Initial funding from UNDP

Next funding from the Belgian Government, with a condition thatSADC gradually takes over the funding of DMC Harare.

Since April 2002, core activities are funded by SADC.

However, programme activities are still being funded by cooperating partners:WMO, USAID, NOAA and others.

ROLE OF THE SADC DMC

1) OBJECTIVE

To contribute to mitigation of adverse impacts of extreme climate variations on sustainable socioeconomic development.This is achieved through the monitoring of near real-time climatic trends and generating medium-range (10-14 days) and long-range climate outlook products on monthly and seasonal (3-6 months) timescales.

These products are disseminated in timely manner to the communities of the sub-region principally through the NMHSs, regional organizations, and also directly through email services to various users who include media agencies. Our products are readily available on our website: http://www.dmc.co.zw, e.mail address is: dmcgen@dmc.co.zw

The provision of early warning for the formulation of appropriate strategies to combat the adverse effects of climate extremes affords greater opportunity to decision-makers for development of prudent plans for mitigating the negative impacts on sustainable socio-economic development.

Since, establishment, the center has played an important and central role in providing the sub-region with weather and climate advisories and more importantly, timely early warning on drought, floods and other extreme climate events

SADCNMHSs

AngolaBotswana

Congo (DRC)

Lesotho

Malawi

Mauritius

Mozambique

Namibia

Seychelles

South Africa

Swaziland

Tanzania

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Data processing

& archiving

TechniquesDevelopment

GlobalClimateCentres

SADCDMC

Product Generation &

Dissemination

PRODUCT DISSEMINATION

EnvironmentMonitoring

AttachmentsWorkshops

ECMWFIRIUKMONOAABMRCWMOetc …

SADCNMHSs

AngolaBotswana

Congo (DRC)

Lesotho

Malawi

Mauritius

Mozambique

Namibia

Seychelles

South Africa

Swaziland

Tanzania

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Data processing

& archiving

TechniquesDevelopment

GlobalClimateCentres

SADCDMC

Product Generation &

Dissemination

EnvironmentMonitoring

AttachmentsWorkshops

ECMWFIRIUKMONOAABMRCWMOetc …

2. OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES

Developing and archiving of global, regional and national quality controlled climate databanks

Providing of climate monitoring, prediction and application services,

Conducting training and capacity building activities in the generation and application of climate products

Organizing the climate and malaria outlook forums for the SADC region, and

Enhancing the interactions with the user through regional users workshops and application pilot projects.

CLIMATE INFORMATION

• Climate variability– The basic driving mechanism of steady-state climate: solar radiation and

the rotation of the earth– The circulation patterns of the atmosphere in southern Africa– Important for application in socio-economic sectors: extremes in climate

states often lead to the dislocation of socio-economic developments. Droughts/floods have wreaked havoc in the region from time to time.

• Climate Change– The impacts of industrialization on climate system– Important for application in socio-economic sectors

EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION

• Southern African region socioeconomic development is influenced by climate variability.

• The El Niño/southern Oscillation phenomenon has impacts on the region

• Trends in global climate change have implications in the region

Impacts of ENSO phases in SADC

• Droughts /Floods• Unprecedented crop failures• Decimation of livestock• Virtual collapse of industries since both water shortage and

hydropower failures are frequently likely • Incidences of epidemiological diseases• Mass destruction of infrastructures: roads; bridges; houses,

etcWidespread suffering with loss of livestock and crops

SOI for selected years

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month

SO

I

SOI_19 91/9 2 SOI_ 19 97/9 8 SOI_ 19 99 /20 00 SOI_2 002 /2 00 3

SADC DMC TOOLS

The SADC DMC uses several tools to realize its objective and they are listed below:

A

30 Year Mean OND and JFM rainfall

Composite El Nino SST mean (top); anomalies(bottom)

Composite La Nina SST mean (top); anomalies(bottom)

Pacific Basin – SST (IRI)

B

C

Selected Atmospheric Patterns Zonal wind Indian / Atlantic (IRI)

D

PRODUCTS

Fig. 1 Rainfall total for 1 Jan—20 MAR 2003.

Pictures above indicate flooding in Malawi and Mozam-bique-January 2003, food crisis in Lesotho - October 2002

S AD C D R OUGHT MON I TOR IN G CEN TR E P . O . B OX B E 1 5 0 , B ELVED ER E, HA R AR E, ZIMB AB WE T E L / F A X : + 2 6 3 4 7 7 8 1 7 2 E M A I L : D M C G E N @ D M C . C O . Z W W E B : W W W . D M C . C O . Z W

Outlook Highlights

• Normal to above normal rains over Seychelles.

• Northern and eastern SADC expected to receive normal rainfall.

• Normal to below normal rain-fall across the rest of the sub-region.

Rainfall review over the SADC

region for 1 January-20 March 2003

Rainfall performance improved across central and eastern SADC during the second part of the rainfall season. Most of the rains occurred during March associated mainly with the pas-sage of tropical cyclone ‘Japhet’.

On the other hand, dry conditions persisted over extreme southern and northeastern areas during much of the period with rainfall totals below 200 mm. The rest of the sub-region had rainfall totals ranging from 200 to above 600 mm. fig. 1.

The percentage of normal rainfall map shows that the bulk of the sub-region had normal rainfall, except the extreme southern and northeastern parts which had below normal conditions. (Fig. 2).

HIGHLIGHTS

EL-NIÑO UP -DATE`

• Neutral condition most likely to follow

• Moderate El-Niñ0 conditions will con-tinue through March-April 2003.

• SOI index main-tained negative val-ues but decrease to –1.2 in Feb 2003

OUTLOOK (APRIL — JUNE 2003)

Is s ue no . 05

31 MARCH, 2003

El-Niño Update 2

Tropical cyclone forma-tion over Southern Africa

2

SO I and SST anomalies 2

Mean rainfall for AMJ 3

Forecast details 4

Rainfall outlook map 4

Inside this issue:

Fig.2.Percentage of normal rainfall for 1 Jan– 20 Mar 2003.

Standardised mean Southern Africa rainfall anomalies with SOI

-4-3-2-10123

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Rainfall AnomaliesSOI Anomalies

RAINFALL PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS

• Significant rainfall deficits across the southern half of the SADC region .Countries mostly affected BY deficits were Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, southern half of Mozambique and South Africa .

October 2004 Dekadal cumulative rainfallOctober 2004 Dekadal cumulative rainfall

Trend: Most area had little rainfall.Country with the highest rainfall over this period (>150mm): DRC

October circulation feature(s): ITCZ to the north, middle level high-pressure dominating southern parts.

November 2004 Dekadal cumulative rainfall

Trend: First dekad was quite dry. Northern half had some decent rains. Areas with the highest rainfall over this period(>150mm): Northern Malawi Seychelles & Southern Tanzania.Most of southern half experienced little rain. November circulation feature(s): Depression over Mozambique Channel and ITCZ active over the northern parts.

December 2004 Dekadal cumulative rainfall

Trend: Most areas had widespread rainfall, the s’western sector had little rainfall. Countries with the highest rainfall over this period(>90mm): DRC, Seychelles, Zambia, Zimbabwe & Malawi.

December circulation feature(s): Depressions over Mozambique Channel, ITCZ over the North and central part and middle level high-pressure system over the south/southwest.

OND TOTALS

Overall, most of the SADC region experienced largely normal rains during the OND 2004. However, parts of the southern sections, the bulk of central South Africa, had well below-normal rainfall, less than 65%.Greater than 125 % was observed over Malawi, Northern Mozambique, northeastern coast of Tanzania.

Cumulative rains during OND 2004 for selected stations in the SADC

Rainfall was well below normal from October to December for Bulawayoin Zimbabwe, Maun in Botswana, Queensland in South Africa.

Parts of Malawi and north Mozambique had rains picking up sharply in Dec 2004

Rainfall was well below normal from October to December in DRC & Tanzaniaalso.

CLIMATE PREDICTION

• Prediction of future state of Atmosphere– Understanding the physics of the atmosphere– Using computer models (high power)– Important for application in socio-economic sectors

• Basic approaches – Analogue, Statistical and Dynamical

Prediction

What do we need to know to make a good prediction?

the current state (initial conditions)

how the current state will evolve

El Niño Normal La Niña

Boreal winter

Boreal spring

Uncertainty in How the Current State will Evolve

Uncertainty in How the Current State will Evolve

Sea surface temperatures in the global oceans (but primarily in the

tropics) can affect the overlying atmosphere by warming or cooling the

air and affecting the amount of atmospheric moisture. Since these sea

temperatures change fairly slowly, and can themselves be predicted, an

influence on the atmosphere can be anticipated up to a few months in

advance.

Communicating Uncertainty

Uncertainty is indicated by the probability that rainfall will be within a specified range. Uncertainty is high when the probability is high and the range is narrow.

HOMOGENOUS REGIONS FOR OND OVER

SOUTHERN AFRICA

Graph of Observed and Forecasted for the region 1 DJF SEASON

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010YEAR

-20

-10

0

10

20

Valu

e

FORECASTREG1

70%

SADC SEASONAL FORECAST OUTLOOK DJF 2006-2007

MODELDJF

ANOVA

MR (%) R2 (%) F-RATIO

P

REGION 1 74.1 54.9 14.591 0.000

REGION 2 60.3 36.3 10.559 0.000

REGION 3 59.8 35.7 6.668 0.001

MAP1: Probabilities of WetMAP1: Probabilities of Wet

DJF 2005/06 Rainfall For Malaria Outlook

DJF 2005/06 Rainfall For Malaria Outlook

REGIONS REGIONS I,VII & IX I,VII & IX HAS HIGH HAS HIGH %GE OF %GE OF EXCEEDING EXCEEDING 75%NTILE75%NTILE

MAP2: Probabilities of DryMAP2: Probabilities of Dry

DJF 2005/06 Rainfall Malaria Outlook

DJF 2005/06 Rainfall Malaria Outlook

REGIONS IIREGIONS II--VI VI & VIII HAVE & VIII HAVE HIGH PROB OF HIGH PROB OF DRY DRY INCIDENCESINCIDENCES

OND 2005 OBSERVED RAINFALL vs OUTLOOK

OND 2005 VERIFICATION

JFM 2006 OBSERVED RAINFALL vs

OUTLOOK

JFM 2006 OUTLOOK VERIFICATION

ATTACHMENT PROGRAMME

The DMC has over the years hosted many scientists from mostly the subregion. It has also facilitated secondment of scientists to other global centres. Typically the scientists are hosted for a period of six months at a time at the DMC.

Training SADC National Meteorological and Hydrological Services' (NMHSs) staff on attachment at the DMC through guidance in conducting research in climate monitoring and prediction techniques.

After undergoing the training, scientists in prediction and producing climate bulletins, they return to their countries to share their new skills with other colleagues.

3. CAPACITY BUILDING

In addition to training SADC (NMHSs) staff on attachment DMC with assistance from other scientists, develop climate monitoring and prediction techniques for developing Southern Africa Region Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) products.

Providing training to SADC NMHSs staff through capacity 1-2 week building workshops and SARCOF.

Strengthening links with users from sectors such as health, food security (early warning systems), water resources management, media, tourism industry, etc.

The aim of the pre-SARCOF capacity building workshops is to enhance the capacity of the NMHSs in generating climate outlook products at national level.

User workshops (e.g. media and water-resources) have been incorporated into the process so as to enhance the effective dissemination and application of climate monitoring and prediction information, and to create good working relations between the climate scientists and the various weather-sensitive sectors.

Since August 1999, the SADC DMC has organized 9 pre-SARCOF capacity building workshops, including two media water resources and livestock workshops.

In each workshop, inadequacies in the forecasting system are identified from previous experiences and attempts are made to address already recognised weaknesses.

4. CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUMS

The SADC DMC has organized nine Southern Africa Climate Outlook forums (SARCOF),

To provide a consensus seasonal climate outlook form for the SADC region.

Create a platform for interaction between the users and the climate scientists to enhance the application of meteorology to the reduction of climate related risks to food security, water resources and health for sustainable socio-economic development in the SADC region

Aug - Sept Sept

CAPACITY BUILDING WORKSHOP

CONSENSUS MEETING

In Addition

User (e.g. Media, Health, Agric, Water and Disaster) Workshops

The SARCOF Process

The SARCOF9 Consensus Climate Outlook for the October to December 2005 had a hit rate of 48% and Heidke Hit Skill Score of 22% . For January to March 2006 season had a hit rate of 69% and Heidke Hit Skill Score of 54%.

A good model evaluated over a period of more than ten years has a Heidke Hit Skill Score of 20.0%

The SARCOF9 Consensus Climate Outlook therefore was useful as its skill scores were within the skill score ranges of a good model.

Verification of SARCOFVerification of SARCOF

This will immensely benefit users of climate services in the subregion, i.e. individuals and institutions from both public and private sectors.

CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

Inadequate infrastructure and appropriate capacity (human and equipment),

Lack of coordination and communication between meteorologists and various users group,

Limited communication opportunities between countries, and

Unavailability of advanced technologies.

Challenges and Opportunities

• Climate Monitoring and Prediction– Consultation with end users– Improved delivery systems– Training in the use of information– Incorporating user feedback

Challenges and Opportunities

Climate Monitoring and Prediction

Improved Seasonal Climate Forecasts– Increased reliability– Spatial scale– Temporal scale

PLANNED ACTIVITIES

The DMC will continue to build on the successes it made in climate analysis and prediction, and strive to improve areas of its weakness.

It will empower regional experts involved in climate diagnosis and prediction through on-the-job training, workshops and secondment of these experts to advanced climate centres overseas.

This will result in, among other things:

• research focused on long-lead seasonal climate predictability in order to systematically produce useful forecasts; and

•effective use of these experimental forecasts by scientists fromparticipating countries in order to meet their particular social and economic needs.

SUMMARY

Climate extremes have profound impacts in SADC

DMC has contributed to the understanding of these extreme variations in SADC through consistent climate monitoring.

DMC generates and disseminates important prediction products.

These products are important in providing early warning for mitigation of adverse impacts of extremes in weather and climate.

There are still challenges: inadequate resources.

DMC have contributed to building capacity in SADC for climate prediction and applications through Climate outlook Forums.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!!