Post on 06-Apr-2018
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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Why Nuclear Electricity for India?
V S Arunachalam
Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy,
Bangalore, INDIA
&Department of Engineering & Public Policy
Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh PA, USA
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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Growth of India’s Power Sector
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I n s t a l l e d G e
n e r a t i o n C a p a c i t y ( G W )
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m b e r o f V i l l a g e s E l e c t r i f i e
d(Projected
• Serious Growth after 60’s• Generation 6th largest in world• Per capita consumption low• Close to 95% villages electrified
Ministry of Power, Government of India
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The Status
Coal
67166
Gas
11840
Diesel
1196
Hydro
30135
Nuclear
2720Wind
2488• Installed Capacity > 120 GW
• Gross Generation: 620 billion kWh
• Per Capita Consumption ~ 600 kWh
• Coal dominant energy source (58%)
Ministry of Power, Government of India
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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India’s Future Growth
• India needs sustained economicgrowth > 8% to radicallyimprove its HDI
• Growth in last few years ~ 5%-7%
• Growth hampered byinfrastructure: electric power – Peak shortfall – Average shortfall
– High T&D Losses: – Unscheduled black-outs,especially in rural areas
– Supply to agriculture sector notmetered and almost free
Source: Groningen Growth and Development Center Total Economy Database, http://www.ggdc.net/.
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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Growth Areas
• Present growth is skills or resource driven(exports: software, gems and jewels, garment manufacture)
• Future Growth will have to be on value addition & engineering
• Rural sector to play a major role
(agricultural and dairy produce; minimizing wastage and improvingefficiency)
• Infrastructure building(roads, buildings, railroads etc.,)
• Manufacturing
The elasticity has to be greater than 1 for powering future growth
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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Elasticity and Electric Power Needs
• Target economic growth ~ 8%
• Elasticity of electricity with GDPstabilizing at ~ 1.2
• Implications for future electric power requirements by 2015:
– Capacity addition
– Investments
– Fuel mix
– Pricing and Policies – T&D reforms
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E l a s t i c i t y o f G e
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Review of State Electricity Boards
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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Electric Power Requirements
G e n e r a t i o n ( b i l l i o n k W h )
Y e a r 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5
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K e y G D P G r o w th R a te0 .0 50 .0 60 .0 7
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Required for 8% economic growth by 2015:
Installed Capacity 250 GW
Generation 1500 billion kWh
Per Ca ita Consum tion 1000 kWh
C a p a c i t y N e e d e d ( G W )
Y e a r 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5
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8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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The Task Ahead
• Need to add 135 GW in ten years
– 13,500 MW required per annum
– ~ One power plant per month
– China adds one per week !!
– Maximum added till now is
4,600 MW (One in four months)0
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a l C a p a c i t y A d d i t i o n ( M W
Annual added capacity
Total Capacity addition required
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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Fuel Supply: Options for Future
• Coal – Conventional – Gasification
• Natural Gas• Hydro• Nuclear
– PHWR + FB + AHWR – PLWR
• Wind – On-shore – Off-shore
• Biomass• Solar
– Photo voltaic – Concentrating Solar Power
Fuel Present In 2015Coal 67,166 MW ?
Gas 11,840 MW ?
Hydro 30,135 MW ?
Nuclear 2,720 MW ?Wind 2,488 MW ?
Biomass 1,000 MW ?
Solar - ?
TOTAL 115,035 MW 250,000 MW
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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King Coal !
• Reserves
– Proven 91 billion Tons
– Indicated 116 billion Tons
– Inferred 37 billion Tons
– TOTAL 245 billion Tons
• Coal reserves:> 250 years at present
levels of consumption
• Concentrated in Eastern India
Madhya
Pradesh7%
Others
13%
Jharkhand
29%
Chattisgarh
16%
West Bengal
11%
Orissa
24%
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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Indian Coal Quality
• High ash: 25%-45%
• Low sulfur < 0.5%
• Low energy content
• CO2 emissions > 1 kg per kWh
•Issues with coal: – Ash disposal: annual ash
generation > 90 million tons
– CO2 emissions
Heating Value(BTU/lb)
Ash Content(%)
Sulfur
(%)
Illinois # 6 10,900 11.00 3.25
Wyodak 11,960 5.97 0.40
WPC Utah 11,240 5.32 0.61
Indian Coal 6,500 25-45 <0.5
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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Coal: Future Scenarios
• Projections of coal demand (2015):
– High growth : 580 MT
– BAU scenario : 380 MT
– Domestic production will not be
enough. Imports needed
• Issues:
– Ash generation > 200 million Tons
– CO2 emissions > 850 Million Tons
– Particulate and NOx emissions
(presently not regulated)
– Coal transportation bottleneck: Rail
transportation stagnation
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e r S e c t o r ( M i l l i o n T o n s )
Coal Transport by Railways
Business as Usual
Ac ce lerat ed gro wth sc enario
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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India’s CO2 Emissions
• India’s fossil based CO2 emissions in 2003: – Coal 666 MMT – Petroleum 305 MMT – Natural Gas53 MMT
• India’s CO2
emissions rapidly growing
– Trebled during 1981-2001
• India and China presently not subject tomandatory cuts in CO2
– However future may not be so
0%
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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
S h a r e o f G l o b a l C O 2 E m i s s i o n s ( % )
US
We stern Euro
Chin
India
EIA, US Department of Energy
India China Total
1980 1.64% 7.83% 9.47%
2003 5.60% 19.34% 24.93%
Share of global emissions
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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Options with Coal
• Coal’s dominance will undoubtedly continue. – Availability
– Cheap
• The question is: How much do we want to add with coal given the constraints of
quality, transportation, carbon emissions and environmental issues.
Installed Capacityof Coal (GW)
Coal Required(Million MT)
CO2 Emissions
(Million MT)
Upper Case Coal stillcontributes 60% of capacity
~ 150 GW 580 MMT 850 MMT
Lower Case Aggressivedeployment of nuclear and naturalgas technologies
~ 120 GW 470 MMT 690 MMT
Coal scenarios for high economic growth ~ 8%
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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Hydro-Electricity
• Inferred potential > 120 GW
• Installed capacity 30 GW
• Most big projects are in North-Eastern states of Arunachal
Pradesh, Sikkim, Uttaranchal and
J&K
• Problems of rehabilitation andresettlement with large projects
• Environmental issues
• Water sharing agreements withneighbors
National Hydro Power Corporation, Government of India
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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Hydro-Electric Potential
State Capacity(MW)
Dulhasti J&K 390
Dhauliganga Stage - I * Uttaranchal 140
Teesta Stage V Sikkim 510
Loktak Downstream Manipur 90
Parbati-II Himachal Pradesh 800
Sewa-II J&K 120
Subansiri Lower Arunachal Pradesh 2000
Teesta Lower Dam-III West Bengal 132
Omkareshwar Madhya Pradesh 520
TOTAL 4702
Details of projects under construction
Projects awaitingclearance andgovernment approval
2,570 MW
Projects at DPR andinfrastructuredevelopment stage
11,620 MW
Projects under surveyand investigation
11,000 MW
Ongoing and Planned Projects
Possible to add 10,000 MW by 2015
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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Natural Gas
• Fastest growing primary fuel, worldwide• Indian statistics (2004-05):
Consumption: > 31 BCM/year
Primary uses:
Power 41%
Fertilizer 32%
Sponge Iron 4%
Other 23%
Growing needs for transportation (and some cooking)
Latent demand estimated as high as 80 BCM (depends on price, of course)
CENTGASTurkmenistan
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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Natural Gas
Pipelines
Indore
- onwardsto India
TAPS
TAPS(across water)
CENTGAS
- to Pakistan
Indore
Baroda333333333
KarachiGwadar
222222222
444444444
Gas supplyConsumptioncenter
New Delhi
Multan
1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar 1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar 1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar 1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar 1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar 1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar 1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar 1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar 1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar
111111111
Pakistan
Afghanistan
Iran
Turkmenistan
Qatar India
Oman
Gas Authority of India Limited
India’s Gas Pipelines
Possible Gas Imports (Tongia & Arunachalam, 1999)
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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Imports of Gas
• LNG growing (5+ million tons/annum), but pricesremain high – 1 ton LNG can power ~ 1 GW of power
– 1 BCM gas ~ .8 GW of power
thus, 20 BCM ~ 16,000 MW of gas power
• Initial imports won’t necessarily add to elec. capacity
– Will substitute naphtha in power plants and find other usesas well• More than half the fertilizer feedstock is gas
• Industry has already claimed the bulk of current LNG supplies
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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Biomass
• India predominantly agriculturalcountry.
• Annual production of agro-forest and
processing residues: 350 million tons
• Power generation potential > 22,000
MW• Advantages:
– Decentralized generation: close to rural
load centers.
– Technology reasonably well developed
– Environmentally friendly: No net CO2 emissions
Feedstock Examples Potential Installed
Agro-forestresidues
Wood chips,mulberry,
coconut shells
17,000 MW 50 MW
Processingresidues
Rice husk,sugarcane
bagasse
5,000 MW 1000 MW
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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Biomass Conversion Technologies
• Gasifier-reciprocating engine – Power plants of 5 kW – 100 kW possible
– Diesel engine needs ~ 15%-20% for ignition
• Cost of electricity is high
– Gas engine can operate on 100% syngas
– Overall efficiency ~ 20%
– Largest gasifier 100 kW
• Fluidized bed combustion boilers
– Rice husk and bagasse
– 25%-30%
– Power plants of 5 MW – 35 MW operating invarious sugar mills
– Producing electricity is sweeter than sugar !!
50 kW biomass gasifier power plant in Karnataka
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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Biomass for Decentralized Rural
Power
• Electric power requirement of typical Indian village < 100 kW – ~ 75% is irrigation pumps
– Presently these get virtually free, un-metered grid supply of poor quality, few hours
a day
• Locally available biomass can sustain a plant of 25 kW-100 kW
– Gasifier-reciprocating engine technology is fairly robust
• Cost of generation reasonable
– $ 0.06-0.07 per kWh
• BUT, still widespread dissemination not visible:
– Economics unviable due to low PLF
– People not willing to pay when state gives free !
– Loss of organic fertilizer on land
• Good potential from bagasse and husk:
– Can expect to add 3000 MW by 2015.
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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Wind Energy
• Gross potential : 45,000 MW(assuming 1% land availability in potential areas)
• Technical potential : 13,000 MW(assuming 20% grid penetration in potential areas)
• Rapid growth in installed capacityfrom 1990s
• India ranks 5th in the world – Present installed capacity ~ 3000
MW
• Site selection issues:
– More from fiscal benefits than from power – Many plants not operating – Low average load factor~13%
0
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U K
J a p a n
C h i n a
I n s t a l l e d C a p a c
Global Wind Energy Council
World Wind Installed Capacity (2005)
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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Wind Speed Maps of Selected
Countries
Denmark
In general, wind speeds lower (~200W/m2)
in India as compared to Europe (350 W/m2)
and US US
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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Off-shore Wind in Europe
• Europe and US have taken up several off-shore projects.
• Wind speeds higher
• Distance from shore in some cases ~ 30 – 40 km !
Country Capacity Depth (m) Distance fromShore (km)
Remarks
Denmark 160 MW 6 – 12 m 14 – 20 km Completed
UK 60 MW 4 – 8 m 2.3 km Completed
Denmark 23 MW 20 m 3.5 km Completed
Denmark 5 MW 3 – 5 m 6 km Completed
Sweden 10 MW 6 – 10 m 5 km Completed
Germany 1040 MW 30 m 43 – 50 km Planned
Netherlands 120 MW 20 – 24 m 23 km Planned
Germany 240 MW 20 m 34 km Planned
Ireland 520 MW 2 – 5 m 10 km Partly complete
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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India: Off Shore Wind Scenario
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8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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Nuclear Power: The Present Status
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I n s t a l l e d C a p a c i t y ( M
W )
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Presently installe
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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Indian Nuclear Program: The Present
Status
• 12 PHWR & 2 BWR now under operation• 4 PHWR and 2 LWR under commission• 2950 MW generation & 3000 MW under
commission
• Successful experiments with Fast Breeder TestReactor (FBTR)
• Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) for 500MWe under construction
• Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR) using(Pu-Th) O2 MOX for 300MWe: advanced stage of design approval; construction soon to begin.
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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Indian Nuclear Program: The
Constraints
• Uranium ore reserves for only 10,000MWe for 40
years
• Non-signatory to NPT: no access to globaltechnologies, materials or services
• Slow growth of nuclear electric power: ~1000
MWe annually
• Major dependence on Pu and U233 MOX for fuel
• Complex fuel technologies. Total capacity limited
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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Why Cooperate?
• India needs electric power now, more thanever, for human development and growth
• It must generate power from all energy
sources• Excessive and continued dependence on
coal contributes to environmental
degradation & global warming• Limitations of renewable energy sources
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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Why Cooperate?
• Politics of Non-Proliferation: Power &Responsibility
• R&D: cooperation and Collaboration
• Bilateral trade & economic issues
• Sharing global energy resources
• Environmental concerns
• Shared vision: secular, democratic &
caring society
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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Why Cooperate?
Climate change is a greater threat to
humanity than terrorism, and no lessurgent.
--- David King, Science Advisor to Prime
Minister of UK
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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An Action Plan
Until Nuclear Fusion and Hydrogentechnologies mature
• Minimizing wastage; energy conservation;
Development of Energy Plan• Installation of nuclear power ( 34GW in 10
years)
• Investments in R&D to make renewabletechnologies efficient, sustainable&affordable
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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An Action Plan
• Strict enforcement of export controls of technologies, equipment and services
• Nuclear power reactors under international
safeguards• Collaboration in developing technologies
for utilizing MOX fuels for electric power
generation• Participation in Gen. 4 R&D initiatives
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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Indian Energy Scenarios: 2015
Coal
60.44%Gas
14.49%
Diesel
0.48%
Nuclear
5.06%
Hydro
15.96%
Solar thermal
0.40%
Biomass
1.19%Wind
1.99%
Gas
14.49%
Diesel
0.48%
Nuclear
14.60%
Hydro
15.96%
Solar thermal
0.40%
Biomass
1.19%Wind
1.99%
Coal
50.90%
Same Fuel Mix as now Aggressive Nuclear Capacity Addition
• Reduction in annual coal consumption ~ 100 Million Tons
• Reduction in annual CO2 Emissions > 170 Million Tons•
~ Total present CO2 emissions of Netherlands !
P i ti
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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Primary energy consumption per
capita
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What If ….India & China Were “Developed”by 2013?
• Expected Carbon Emission:
14,400 Million Tons (2.5 times
present global emissions !!)
• CO2 concentration > 400 ppm
• Temperature rise > 0.5 C0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
OECD India China Others
20022013
Global Carbon Emissions (Million Tons per Year)
US > 14,000
India 600
China 1300
Present Electricity Per Capita (kWh)
Target: 14,000 kWh by 2013
(Calculations Based on Data in Climate Change 2001, IPCC)
Wh If
8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation
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What If
India & China Guzzle Oil?
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OECD
Others
M i l l i o n B a r r e l s p e r D a y
2003
2013
Global Oil Consumption (Million Barrels per Day)
US > 750
India 4
China 8
Present Number of Cars per 1000
• World Oil Consumption: 387
Million Barrels a Day• At Present 77 Million Barrels a Day
• Oil reserves deplete in 8 years !!• At Present 42 years
Target: 250 Cars per 1000
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I saw God In the smile of the poor Mahatma Gandhi