Post on 03-Apr-2018
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Ahurastan DissidentGroup Analysis
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Dissident AnalysisKDPA (AH) SANAM Mugan Military wing of Taylsh
Leader Mustava Hijri Cherengalli Ali Humbatov
Goal Independent Mahabad
Republic (Ahurastan
provinces of West AZ &
Kurdestan)
Regime change
Wants AH as semi-
autonomous region in
Iran for econ
prosperity
Separate state for Taylsh clan (in so. AZ &
no. AH)
Support
LiaisonBorders
Iraq border
Support from PUK (brokewith KDP)
Along AZ/AH border
Russian support viaArmenia
No longer supports SAPA (unconfirmed)
Along Caspian Sea
Assets Approx 10.5K KDPI
Other affil w/ Shikak
Confederacy 100 house
=10-20 peshmerga
Several 20-25PAX
militia
Several OSC-E key
leaders
(Influence increasesw/time.. P(coup) incr)
BN (3 companies)
Squad-size militia in almost all villages
Much local support
No more SAPA support makes OSC-E
eastern AA difficult
Issue
Liability
Support PKK in Turkey
TU fears greater
Kurdestan
KDPI and Talysh
territory claims from
AH
Taylsh state would take territory from AZ &
AH
Value Occupies SSM region
(including Salmas)
Can influence OSC-E
commanders
Opposes SAPA; makes OSC-E eastern
axis of advance more difficult
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KDP/PUK/KDPI AOs
KDPI
Ahurastan
ODA 051 & NILE
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Goal of KDPI
Mustafa Hijri
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KDPI & Shikak Confederacy Forces
City Militia
Mahabad 150-200
Orumieh 75-125
Bukan 100-125
Sardasht 50-75
Maku 150-175
Khoy 50-75
Nagadeh 50-75
Baneh 100-125
Salmas 50-75
Non-tribal KDPI
10.5K fighters
SSMs w/WMD
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SANAM Areas
Marand (HQ?)
Kalibar
Haris
Chehreganli
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Talysh Insurgency
Crosses AZ/AH border
Possible break from SAPA
Affects OSC-E AA