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Monthly StrategyDISSECTING THE HOPE RALLY
April 10, 2014
DISSECTING THE HOPE RALLY
In the end, that's what this election is about. Do we participate in a politics of cynicism or a politics of hope? – Barak Obama
Destimoney Research
Indian market shrugged global cues as the pre-election hope rally keeps the sentiments buoyant…
World Indices (% chg) were marred by negative cues in March 2014
DAX
ASX 200
NIKKIE 225
KOSPI
DOW
INDIAN NIFTY
� In U.S, Federal Reserve removed the 6.5%
unemployment rate threshold it has been gauging
since 2012 as a measure of improvement in the
economy. It Indicated that it and would rather monitor
a range of parameters for further policy action.
� In Japan, the govt increased the sales tax to 8% from
5% which will be reviewed again in Dec to further
increase it to 10%. Japan's public debt-to-GDP ratio is
well over 200%.
� IMF has downgraded its outlook on developing
2 April 10, 2014
Source: Bloomberg
-4% 0% 4% 7% 11%
FTSE 100
HANG SENG
NASDAQ
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE
TOPIX
CAC 40
� IMF has downgraded its outlook on developing
European countries, Australia and Russia.
Meanwhile, Moody’s has downgraded Ukraine to a
‘default imminent’ Caa3 rating. S&P downgraded
Brazil’s credit rating to BBB-, its lowest investment
grade rating.
…while historical evidence do not suggest coordination between election results and market movement
Historically a decisive mandate is well cheered by the market, although playing solely on the election outcome is a risky proposition
17%
34%
A major hope rally was built in post the series of corruption charges against the incumbent govt. Fractured mandate was not enough to cheer the market
A multi party coalition with outside support was not enough to cheer the market post elections
Part of the rally factors in the improved fiscal situation. A change in guard is largely anticipated, a clear mandate will lift the sentiments in the medium term.
3 April 10, 2014
-17%
0%
17%
1996 1999 2004 2009 2014
3 month pre-election 3 month post-election
Realignment of coalition among regional parties behind NDA led a hope rally. Crash of IT boom may have fizzled the post-election rally in 1999.
Pre-election rally coincided with first leg of global easing as central banks globally resorted to variations of quantitative easing. A stable govt may have been priced in as well.
� While we share the election outcome related optimism of the market, we are wary of a fractured mandate. Even
in case of a decisive government, the execution time lag for a new govt to take the economy back to growth path
is a possibility. Surplus capacities in sectors like cement, steel or higher than normal inventory in real estate would
require sizeable domestic or overseas demand, which in itself would take time to unwind.
� Meanwhile the market has rallied on election hopes coupled with reduction in the near term possibility of rate
hike in the U.S. The India VIX volatility index is up at 28.9 against 14.2 on 28 Feb 2014, with sharp rise in volatility.
We remain watchful of the market movement and recommend a balanced exposure to cyclical and defensive
stocks, as reflected in our model portfolios.
� On the inflation front, food inflation continued its downward spiral for the consecutive third month. Going
forward monsoon will remain a key determinant of the direction of food inflation. The timing and magnitude of
If electoral outcome fail to provide a stable government, the downside risks to growth could accentuate
4 April 10, 2014
forward monsoon will remain a key determinant of the direction of food inflation. The timing and magnitude of
revisions in administered prices, particularly electricity and coal, will also affect the trajectory of inflation in 2014-
15. However, excluding food and fuel segment, retail inflation has been sticky at around 8%. The course of the
CPI inflation will hinge on the strength of disinflationary impulses from policy actions, extent of the negative
output gap and movements in food prices.
� As part of a policy change the govt has removed the “guaranteed buyback” clause from the New Urea Investment
Policy. Also it has introduced a provision of hiking the fixed cost component in urea production. This increase, up
to `350 per tonne, would push up the subsidy burden on the Government by `9.8 bn.
� After a gap of 11 years, RBI awarded banking license to two new players IDFC Ltd and Bandhan Financial Services.
RBI has further stated that it will follow an ‘on tap’ policy implying that more and more licenses will be given to
private players. RBI is also keen on issuing differentiated license instead of full license to interested players going
forward.
Hope rally has been largely concentrated to capital goods while cyclicals like metals and auto are yet to join in
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
1999
2004
2009
2014
3 month pre-election 3 month post-election
Auto
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
1999
2004
2009
2014
3 month pre-election 3 month post-election
Capital Goods
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
1999
2004
2009
2014
3 month pre-election 3 month post-election
IT
5 April 10, 2014
Source: Bloomberg
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
1999
2004
2009
2014
3 month pre-election 3 month post-election
FMCG
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
1999
2004
2009
2014
3 month pre-election 3 month post-election
Metals
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
1999
2004
2009
2014
3 month pre-election 3 month post-election
Healthcare
There are selective pockets in auto and engineering space where run-up is possible
Universe of stocks in auto and engineering space having market capitalization over `̀̀̀1 bn
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
6 April 10, 2014
Source: Destimoney Research
-50%
Air Conditioners Auto Ancillary Auto OEM Bearings Castings/Forgings Compressors / Pumps Diesel Engines Electric Equipment Engineering
� In the Auto OEM space only 5 of the 16 companies have recorded over 15% gain in the pre-election rally.
For other capital good players the ratio is as follows,
� Auto-ancillary(23/41), air-conditioners(4/5), bearings(3/4), castings/forgings(6/8), compressors/ pumps
(2/5), diesel engines(3/4), electric equipments(11/18), and engineering(8/15).
During March Metals, Realty and Banking space led the rally
Indian NIFTY Performance in March 2014Sector Wise Performance During the Month
6,150
6,300
6,450
6,600
6,750
3-M
ar
5-M
ar
7-M
ar
9-M
ar
11-M
ar
13-M
ar
15-M
ar
17-M
ar
19-M
ar
21-M
ar
23-M
ar
25-M
ar
27-M
ar
29-M
ar
31-M
ar
BSE Oil & Gas Index
BSE Power Index
BSE Capital Goods Index
BSE Metal Index
BSE Bankex
BSE Realty Index
7 April 10, 2014
Source: Bloomberg, CSO
-15% 0% 15% 30%
BSE IT Index
BSE Healthcare Index
BSE Auto Index
BSE FMCG Index
BSE Cons. Durable Index
BSE Oil & Gas Index
Although public sector banks have fallen out of favour in the current pre-poll buying despite trading below book value
Banks and financial companies with market capitalization over `̀̀̀1bn
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
8 April 10, 2014
Bank - Public Bank - Private Finance - Housing Finance Term Lending
Source: Destimoney Research
� In the Public Sector Banks space only 4 of the 24 companies considered have recorded over 15% gain in
the pre-election rally. For other financial sector players the ratio is as follows,
� Private-Banks (23/41), housing-finance (2/8) and term lending finance (3/5).
FII inflows in March surpassed inflows during previous four months combined
FIIs injected `̀̀̀252 bn in March 2013 DIIs withdrew worth `̀̀̀38 bn in March 2013
-60
-30
0
30
60
3-M
ar
4-M
ar
5-M
ar
6-M
ar
7-M
ar
10-M
ar
11-M
ar
12-M
ar
13-M
ar
14-M
ar
18-M
ar
19-M
ar
20-M
ar
21-M
ar
24-M
ar
25-M
ar
26-M
ar
27-M
ar
28-M
ar
31-M
ar
` B
n
-9
-6
-3
0
3
3-M
ar
4-M
ar
5-M
ar
6-M
ar
7-M
ar
10-M
ar
11-M
ar
12-M
ar
13-M
ar
14-M
ar
18-M
ar
19-M
ar
20-M
ar
21-M
ar
24-M
ar
25-M
ar
26-M
ar
27-M
ar
` B
n
9 April 10, 2014
-130
0
130
260
390
Mar-
13
Apr-
13
May-
13
Jun-1
3
Jul-13
Aug-1
3
Sep-1
3
Oct
-13
Nov-
13
Dec-
13
Jan-1
4
Feb-1
4
Mar-
14
` B
n
-60
-40
-20
0
20
Mar-
13
Apr-
13
May-
13
Jun-1
3
Jul-13
Aug-1
3
Sep-1
3
Oct
-13
Nov-
13
Dec-
13
Jan-1
4
Feb-1
4
Mar-
14
` B
n
Source: Bloomberg, Destimoney Research
Apr-Mar FII inflows amount to `̀̀̀849 bn Apr-Mar DII withdrawals amount to `̀̀̀217 bn
Deficit figures have improved
EXIM gap fell to $8.13 bn as imports fell by 18% YoY while exports fell 0.28% YoY
10
20
30
40
50
$ B
n
10 April 10, 2014
Source: Bloomberg
� Oil imports during February, 2014 were valued at $13,696.8 million which was 3.1% lower than oil
imports valued at $14,134.3 million in February, 2013.
� Non-oil imports during January, 2014 were estimated at $20,122.3 million which was 24.5% lower than
non-oil imports of US $26,657.7 million in February, 2013.
� In a signal that pressure on the external sector is easing, India’s current account deficit narrowed to a four-
year low in the fiscal third quarter, aided by a decline in gold imports and revival of exports.
0
Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14
…and WPI and CPI have trended lower…
Food, Fuel, Core & WPI Inflation (%) YoY Trend
CPI has been on downward trend
-8
0
8
16
24
Jun-1
1
Aug-1
1
Oct
-11
Dec-
11
Feb-1
2
Apr-
12
Jun-1
2
Aug-1
2
Oct
-12
Dec-
12
Feb-1
3
Apr-
13
Jun-1
3
Aug-1
3
Oct
-13
Dec-
13
Feb-1
4
%
Food Fuel Core WPI Inflation
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
Apr-
12
Jul-12
Oct
-12
Jan-1
3
Apr-
13
Jul-13
Oct
-13
Jan-1
4
11 April 10, 2014
Source: RBI, Bloomberg, CSO
� WPI Inflation fell to 4.68% in February 2014 against 5.05% in January 2014. Core inflation rose
marginally at 3.15% in Feb against 3.02% in Jan. Fuel inflation fell sharply at 8.75% in Feb against
10.03% in Jan 2014. Food inflation also came down at 8.12%. CPI inflation has come down to
8.77%, RBI is targeting to slowly glide the same to 8% by the end of current fiscal.
� Going forward, inflation may moderate in the context of relatively stable crude oil and range-bound global
commodity prices next year. On the other hand, food inflation will depend on the onset and spatial and
temporal distribution of the south-west monsoon.
-62.8%
-24.5%-18.8% -16.5% -15.9%
-10.4% -9.2% -9.0% -6.8% -6.2%-1.4%
0.3% 0.8%
-22.7%
-0.6%
1.4%
-8.2% -5.7% -1.1%
2.8% 5.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0.0%
-2.6% -0.5%
-90%
-60%
-30%
0%
30%
Argentine Peso
S.A. Rand Turkish Lira Russian Ruble
Chilean Peso
Colombian Peso
Indian Rupee
Brazilian Real
Malaysian Ringit
Thai Bhat Mexican Peso
Chinese Renmibi
S.Korea Won
Since Jan 2013 YTD
This resulted in Rupee appreciation in March
Currency Depreciation Across Emerging Economies
12 April 10, 2014
Source: Bloomberg
270
290
310
330
Mar-
14
Feb-1
4
Jan-1
4
Dec-
13
Nov-
13
Oct
-13
Sep-1
3
Aug-1
3
Jul-13
Jun-1
3
May-
13
Apr-
13
Mar-
13
Feb-1
3
Jan-1
3
Dec-
12
Nov-
12
Oct
-12
Sep-1
2
Aug-1
2
Jul-12
Jun-1
2
May-
12
Apr-
12
Mar-
12
Feb-1
2
Jan-1
2
Dec-
11
Nov-
11
Oct
-11
Sep-1
1
Aug-1
1
Jul-11
Jun-1
1
May-
11
Apr-
11
Mar-
11
Feb-1
1
Jan-1
1
Dec-
10
Nov-
10
Oct
-10
Sep-1
0
Aug-1
0
Jul-10
Jun-1
0
May-
10
In $
bn
RBI guided to use the reserves to manage currency volatility once further QE tapering sets in
Source: RBI
RBI maintained status quo and is watching the sustainability of further reduction in inflation…
Key rate movement over the years
0
3
6
9
12
Jan-1
1
Feb-1
1
Mar-
11
Apr-
11
May-
11
Jun-1
1
Jul-11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct
-11
Nov-
11
Dec-
11
Jan-1
2
Feb-1
2
Mar-
12
Apr-
12
May-
12
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct
-12
Nov-
12
Dec-
12
Jan-1
3
Feb-1
3
Mar-
13
Apr-
13
May-
13
Jun-1
3
Jul-13
Aug-1
3
Sep-1
3
Oct
-13
Nov-
13
Dec-
13
Jan-1
4
Feb-1
4
Mar-
14
%
REPO REVERSE REPO CRR MSF
13 April 10, 2014
Source: RBI
� In its first bi-monthly policy review on Apr 1, RBI governor kept the key rates unchanged in line with the
market expectation. Repo, Reverse Repo and MSF rate stand at 8%, 7% and 9% respectively. Bank Rate
remains at 9%, and the CRR has also been kept unchanged at 4% of net demand and time liability (NDTL).
� RBI has also decided to increase the liquidity provided under 7-day and 14-day term repos from 0.5% of NDTL
of the banking system to 0.75%, and decrease the liquidity provided under overnight repos under the LAF
from 0.5% of bank-wise NDTL to 0.25% with immediate effect.
� Elsewhere, RBI gave in principle nod to IDFC Ltd and Bandhan Financial Services, a microfinance institution to
set up banks. RBI last month had sought clearance from the Election Commission of India to issue the licenses
as the model code of conduct is in order.
Call money rates close to repo rates
Aiming to Improve the Transmission of Monetary Policy
-2,550
-1,700
-850
0
850
Jan-1
3
Feb-1
3
Mar-
13
Apr-
13
May-
13
Jun-1
3
Jul-13
Aug-1
3
Sep-1
3
Oct
-13
Nov-
13
Dec-
13
Jan-1
4
Feb-1
4
Mar-
14
`Bn
LAF Term Repo MSF Standing liquidity facility availed from RBI
14 April 10, 2014
Source: RBI, Bloomberg
� RBI is largely successful in bringing call money rate close to the repo rate with the exception of volatility introduced
by extreme changes in government balances in tax payments and bank actions at the year end.
6
8
10
12
Jan-1
3
Jan-1
3
Feb-1
3
Feb-1
3
Mar-
13
Apr-
13
Apr-
13
May-
13
Jun-1
3
Jun-1
3
Jul-13
Jul-13
Aug-1
3
Sep-1
3
Sep-1
3
Oct
-13
Nov-
13
Nov-
13
Dec-
13
Dec-
13
Jan-1
4
Feb-1
4
Feb-1
4
Mar-
14
Apr-
14
%
CP-12M CD-12M MSF Gsec10Y Call Money Repo
IIP Growth (%) Trend (2004-05 base)
Industrial output continue to remain disappointing
-3.2%
0.0%
3.2%
6.4%
9.6%
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct
-12
Nov-
12
Dec-
12
Jan-1
3
Feb-1
3
Mar-
13
Apr-
13
May-
13
Jun-1
3
Jul-13
Aug-1
3
Sep-1
3
Oct
-13
Nov-
13
Dec-
13
Jan-1
4
15 April 10, 2014
Source: CSO
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
� Manufacturing sector, which contributes almost 75.5% of the overall IIP index, de-grew by 0.67% in
January 2014 against a de-growth of 1.2% in December 2013.
� Capital goods output de-grew by 4.23% YoY in January 2014 as compared to de-growth of 2.45% in
December 2013.
� Non-durables rose by 4.43% in January 2014 against 2.51% growth in December 2013.
� Consumer durables continued its downtrend, declining 8.34% in January 2014 following the 16.1% de-
growth in December 2013, registering fall in fourteenth straight month.
Domestic Passenger Vehicle Sales (Units)
On the auto demand side, excise duty reduction did not boost sales in March, YOY growth remained weak except for Honda and Ford Motors
Company Mar-14 Mar-13 %Chg YOY FY14 FY13 %Chg YOY
Maruti Suzuki 102,269 107,890 -5.2% 1,054,499 1,051,006 0.3%
Hyundai Motors 35,003 33,858 3.4% 373,700 383,611 -2.6%
Mahindra & Mahindra 23,433 25,847 -9.3% 229,155 279,270 -17.9%
Honda Cars India 18,426 10,044 83.5% 134,299 73,483 82.8%
Tata Motors 12,640 12,347 2.4% 138,495 222,112 -37.6%
Toyota Kirloskar 8,206 19,452 -57.8% 131,606 167,944 -21.6%
Ford Motors 6,356 5,271 20.6% 84,469 81,999 3.0%
GM India 6,356 9,066 -29.9% 80,199 88,465 -9.3%
16 April 10, 2014
� In FY14, most of the major passenger vehicle companies posted drop in YOY sales owing to slowdown in
country. Honda Cars remained exception with its launches like Amaze and new City. Consumer demand
towards Mini SUV cars remained buoyant, hurting sedan sales in similar price bands.
Source: Company, Destimoney Research
� Commercial Vehicles sales continued to post lower sales due to lower economic activity in the country.
Commercial Vehicle Sales (Units)
CV sales continued to fall , while three wheelers sales also lower YOY except for Mahindra & Mahindra
Company Mar-14 Mar-13 %Chg YOY FY14 FY13 %Chg YOY
Tata Motors 33,356 56,813 -41.3% 378,244 537,143 -29.6%
Mahindra & Mahindra 18,752 18,547 1.1% 185,748 186,135 -0.2%
Ashok Leyland 10,286 14,020 -26.6% 89,342 114,611 -22.0%
17 April 10, 2014
Source: Company
Company Mar-14 Mar-13 %Chg YOY FY14 FY13 %Chg YOY
Bajaj Auto 33,739 34,194 -1.3% 447,674 480,057 -6.7%
Mahindra & Mahindra 6,305 4,831 30.5% 62,614 65,510 -4.4%
TVS Motors 5,076 5,076 0.0% 86,273 54,266 59.0%
Three Wheeler Vehicle Sales (Units)
� M&M posted good growth in three wheeler sales.
Two Wheeler Sales (Units)
Source: Company^ includes exports sales
Two wheeler sales showed good growth in March
Company Mar-14 Mar-13 %Chg YOY FY14 FY13 %Chg YOY
Hero MotoCorp 524,028 468,283 11.9% 6,245,895 6,073,581 2.8%
HMSI 392,148 252,773 55.1% 3,772,960 2,751,196 37.1%
Bajaj Auto ^ 270,591 267,037 1.3% 3,422,416 3,757,105 -8.9%
TVS Motors 47,766 143,239 -66.7% 1,999,319 1,983,427 0.8%
Yamaha India 46,052 35,782 28.7% 657,971 488,847 34.6%
Mahindra 2W 19,591 18,953 3.4% 215,902 123,457 74.9%
18 April 10, 2014
� Two wheeler sales witnessed improvement as inventory build up was seen with dealers, eyeing high
demand on the occasion of Gudhi Padwa (on March 31).
Business Climate Index
Eurozone indicators continue to improve…
Industrial Confidence (YoY %) Services Confidence (YoY %)
-1.8
-1.2
-0.6
0.0
0.6
Mar-
12
Jun-1
2
Sep-1
2
Dec-
12
Mar-
13
Jun-1
3
Sep-1
3
Dec-
13
Mar-
14
%
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
Mar-
12
Jun-1
2
Sep-1
2
Dec-
12
Mar-
13
Jun-1
3
Sep-1
3
Dec-
13
Mar-
14
%
-18.0
-12.0
-6.0
0.0
6.0
Mar-
12
Jun-1
2
Sep-1
2
Dec-
12
Mar-
13
Jun-1
3
Sep-1
3
Dec-
13
Mar-
14
%
19 April 10, 2014
Source: Bloomberg
ISM PMI – Manufacturing Trend
…and signs of recovery in U.S. is helping to keep sentiment buoyant
ISM PMI – Non Manufacturing Trend
48
51
53
56
58
Sep-1
1
Dec-
11
Mar-
12
Jun-1
2
Sep-1
2
Dec-
12
Mar-
13
Jun-1
3
Sep-1
3
Dec-
13
Mar-
14
%
51
53
55
57
59
Sep-1
1
Dec-
11
Mar-
12
Jun-1
2
Sep-1
2
Dec-
12
Mar-
13
Jun-1
3
Sep-1
3
Dec-
13
Mar-
14
%
20 April 10, 2014
Source: Bloomberg
ISM – New Orders Index Net Employment Addition – Monthly (‘000)
45
51
56
62
67
Sep-1
1
Dec-
11
Mar-
12
Jun-1
2
Sep-1
2
Dec-
12
Mar-
13
Jun-1
3
Sep-1
3
Dec-
13
Mar-
14
%
0
100
200
300
400
Sep-1
1
Dec-
11
Mar-
12
Jun-1
2
Sep-1
2
Dec-
12
Mar-
13
Jun-1
3
Sep-1
3
Dec-
13
%
NIFTY Historical P/E Multiple (x)
We remain cautious in the short-term
TTM 12M Monthly Performance
8
13
18
23
28
Mar-
09
Sep-0
9
Mar-
10
Sep-1
0
Mar-
11
Sep-1
1
Mar-
12
Sep-1
2
Mar-
13
Sep-1
3
Mar-
14
-14%
-7%
0%
7%
14%
Apr-
13
May-
13
Jun-1
3
Jul-13
Aug-1
3
Sep-1
3
Oct
-13
Nov-
13
Dec-
13
Jan-1
4
Feb-1
4
Mar-
14
NIFTY Jr Nifty INDEX Midcap Index Smallcap Index
21 April 10, 2014
Source: Bloomberg
� The market has rallied on election hopes coupled
with reduction in possibility of rate hike in the
U.S. The India VIX volatility index is up at 28.9
against 14.2 on 28 Feb 2014, with sharp rise in
volatility. We remain watchful of the market
movement and recommend a balanced exposure
to cyclical and defensive stocks as could be seen
in our model portfolios.10
15
20
25
30
Jan-14 Jan-14 Mar-14 Apr-14
Volatility Index (VIX)
Model Portfolio Update
22 April 10, 2014
Model Portfolio Update
All the three portfolios continue to outperform NIFTY and average mutual fund performance
Model Portfolios Performance Summary
44.2%
0%
17%
34%
51%
68%
3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y Incpt
Moderate Nifty
54.3%
0%
17%
34%
51%
68%
3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y Incpt
Aggressive Nifty
44.7%
0%
17%
34%
51%
68%
3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y Incpt
Conservative Nifty
Absolute Performance
23 April 10, 2014
� Ahead of the benchmark NIFTY Index and average mutual funds. Also, all the three model portfolios are inthe top quartile of mutual fund performance.
Moderate Nifty Aggressive NiftyConservative Nifty
(Since Mar 31, 2011) Conservative Moderate Aggressive
Relative to NIFTY 28.2% 27.7% 37.9%
Relative to Top Quartile 12.0% 11.5% 21.7%
Relative to Av. MF 20.4% 19.9% 30.1%
Relative Performance
Conservative Portfolio
Sectoral AllocationNIFTY
Sector Company Model Portfolio Wt.Agri 6.2%
Bayer Cropscience Ltd 6.2%
Auto 4.5%
Bosch Ltd 4.5%
Capital Goods 21.1%
ABB India Ltd 5.1%
Larsen & Toubro Ltd 9.6%
Siemens Ltd 6.3%
Chemicals 10.7%
Asian Paints Ltd 4.9%
Pidilite Industries Ltd 5.8%
Financials 14.0%
HDFC 5.5%
HDFC Bank Ltd 8.5%
FMCG 21.3%
Auto7.8% Capital Goods
3.6%
Cement 2.6%
Chemicals1.1%
Construction0.8%
Diversified0.6%
Financials18.5%
FMCG9.7%
Metals & Mining8.5%
Oil & Gas15.8%
Pharma5.4%
Power3.9%
Technology19.0%
Telecom2.8%
24 April 10, 2014
Conservative Portfolio
FMCG 21.3%
GSK Consumer Healthcare 5.2%
Hindustan Unilever Ltd 7.7%
ITC Ltd 4.3%
Nestle India Ltd 4.1%
Hotels 6.3%
EIH Ltd 6.3%
Pharma 11.3%
Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals 6.7%
Sanofi India Ltd 4.6%
Cash 4.6%
100.0%
Agri6.2%
Auto4.5%
Capital Goods21.1%
Chemicals10.7%Financials
14.0%
FMCG21.3%
Hotels6.3%
Pharma11.3%
Cash4.6%
Moderate Portfolio
Sectoral AllocationNIFTY
Sector Company Model Portfolio Wt.Agri 2.9%
Bayer Cropscience Ltd 2.9%
Auto 7.1%
Ashok Leyland Ltd 7.1%
Capital Goods 14.8%
Kalpataru Power Transmission 5.4%
Larsen & Toubro Ltd 9.4%
Chemicals 18.1%
Asian Paints Ltd 9.4%
Pidilite Industries Ltd 8.7%
Education 3.1%
MT Educare Ltd 3.1%
Financials 18.2%
HDFC 6.7%
HDFC Bank Ltd 5.0%
Auto7.8% Capital Goods
3.6%
Cement 2.6%
Chemicals1.1%
Construction0.8%
Diversified0.6%
Financials18.5%
FMCG9.7%
Metals & Mining8.5%
Oil & Gas15.8%
Pharma5.4%
Power3.9%
Technology19.0%
Telecom2.8%
25 April 10, 2014
Moderate Portfolio
Agri2.9%
Auto7.1%
Capital Goods14.8%
Chemicals18.1%
Education3.1%
Financials18.2%
FMCG12.7%
Logistics4.8%
Pharma9.9%
Technology5.4%
Cash3.0%
IDFC Ltd 6.6%
FMCG 12.7%
ITC Ltd 5.0%
Nestle India Ltd 7.7%
Logistics 4.8%
Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd 4.8%
Pharma 9.9%
Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals 6.4%
Merck Ltd 3.4%
Technology 5.4%
Just Dial Ltd 5.4%
Cash 3.0%
100.0%
Aggressive Portfolio
Sectoral AllocationNIFTY
Sector Company Model Portfolio Wt.Agri 3.7%
Bayer Cropscience Ltd 3.7%
Auto 5.3%
Ashok Leyland Ltd 5.3%
Capital Goods 17.3%
Alstom India Ltd 7.6%
Siemens Ltd 9.7%
Chemicals 13.8%
Asian Paints Ltd 5.0%
Pidilite Industries Ltd 8.8%
Construction 6.5%
HCC 6.5%
Financials 21.4%
HDFC Bank Ltd 7.2%
Auto7.8% Capital Goods
3.6%
Cement 2.6%
Chemicals1.1%
Construction0.8%
Diversified0.6%
Financials18.5%
FMCG9.7%
Metals & Mining8.5%
Oil & Gas15.8%
Pharma5.4%
Power3.9%
Technology19.0%
Telecom2.8%
26 April 10, 2014
Aggressive Portfolio
Agri3.7%
Auto5.3%
Capital Goods17.3%
Chemicals13.8%
Construction6.5%
Financials21.4%
FMCG13.1%
Logistics4.4%
Technology6.6%
Cash7.9%
ICRA Ltd 6.2%
IDFC Ltd 8.0%
FMCG 13.1%
Colgate Palmolive (India) 3.1%
ITC Ltd 3.8%
Nestle India Ltd 6.2%
Logistics 4.4%
Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd 4.4%
Technology 6.6%
Just Dial Ltd 6.6%
Cash 7.9%
100.0%
Portfolio Changes Summary
Date Conservative Moderate Aggressive
5-Mar-14 Exited - Cipla Ltd
Increased - Glaxo Pharma to 7.8% of AUM
Exited - Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd
Increased - IDFC to 7.3% of AUM
8-Jan-14 Exited - NTPC
Increased -LT to 8% of AUM
Exited - NTPC
Increased -LT to 8%, IDFC to 6% of AUM
Increased - Siemens to 9% of AUM
1-Jan-14 Replacing Godrej Consumer Products Ltd with
Colgate Palmolive (India) Ltd
3-Dec-13 Exited - Bluedart
Added - EIH Ltd with 5% allocation
Added - Kalpataru Power with 5% allocation Exited - Pfizer Ltd
Added - HCC with 5% allocation
20-Nov-13 Reduced - Justdial to 7.5% and Pfizer to 6.4% of
AUM
Added - Alstom India with 8% allocation
14-Nov-13 Added - ABB Ltd with 4% allocation
Added - L&T with 4% allocation
Added - Ashok Leyland with 5% allocation Added -Siemens Ltd with 5% allocation
12-Nov-13 Exited - Cummins India Ltd
Added - Siemens with 5% allocation
Exited - Elgi Equipment Ltd
Added - L&T with 5% allocation
Exited - Glenmark Pharma
Added - Ashok Leyland with 4% allocation
9-Oct-13 Exited - Bluedart Express Ltd
Added - IDFC Ltd with 3% allocation
Exited - Bluedart Express Ltd
Added - IDFC Ltd with 5% allocation
27 April 10, 2014
Continued…
Added - IDFC Ltd with 3% allocation Added - IDFC Ltd with 5% allocation
7-Oct-13 Reduced - NTPC by 3% of AUM
Added - GPPL with 3% allocation
Exited - Jubilant Foodworks
Reduced - Bayer Cropscience to 5% of AUM
Added - GPPL, M&M with 3% allocation each
30-Sep-13 Exited - SBI
Added - MT Educare with 4% allocation
16-Aug-13 Increased - HDFC Bank to 8% Added - HDFC Bank with 5% allocation Increased - HDFC Bank to 8%
31-Jul-13 Exited- BHEL
Reduced - HUL, GSK Consumer, HDFC, Nestle, ITC
by 1% each
Added - HDFC Bank with 5% allocation
Exited - L&T, Procter & Gamble Hygiene and
Healthcare
Increased - NTPC to 10% of AUM
Exited - L&T, Sobha Developers, PNB
Reduced - Pidilite to 10%, Nestle to 9%, ITC to
5% of AUM
Increased - Pfizer to 10% of AUM
Added - HDFC Bank with 5% allocation
23-Jul-13 Increased- Just Dial Ltd to 7% of AUM
19-Jul-13 Exited - Mahindra & Mahindra, Trent Ltd
Added - Cummins India Ltd with 5% allocation
Exited - Mahindra & Mahindra
Added - Just Dial Ltd with 3% allocation
Exited - Mahindra & Mahindra, Wipro Ltd
Added - Just Dial Ltd with 3.5% allocation
Portfolio Changes Summary
25-Jun-13 Exiting Marico as stoploss got triggered
7-Jun-13 Replaced - Hindustan Unilever by Nestle India Replaced - Hindustan Unilever by Nestle India
31-May-13 Added - GCPL with 4% allocation
10-May-13 Reduced -Bluedart by 2% of AUM Reduced -Bluedart by 2% of AUM Reduced -Bluedart by 2% of AUM
14-Mar-13 Exited- HDFC Bank Exited - Titan Industries
8-Mar-13 Added -Glenmark Pharma(5% )
1-Mar-13 Replaced - Dabur India by Titan Industries
12-Feb-13 Exited - Jyothy Labs, Speciality Restaurants
Increased - HDFC to 7.5%,Asian Paints to 10%
Exited - Jyothy Labs, Merck, Speciality Restaurants
6-Feb-13 Exited- Crisil Exited- Crisil
31-Jan-13 Exited -Power Grid Corporation, State Bank of
India, Tata Power
Added -Asian Paints (5%),HDFC Bank (5%)
Exited - Pfizer, TCS
Reduced - Bayer Cropscience to 3% of AUM
Increased - Asian Paints to 8%,Pidilite Industries
to 8% of AUM
Exited -Tube Investments of India
Added - Pidilite Industries (10%)
23-Jan-13 Exited -Infosys
Added - Hindustan Unilever (8%)
Increased- Hindustan Unilever to 8% of AUM Increased- Hindustan Unilever to 8% of AUM
Date Conservative Moderate Aggressive
28 April 10, 2014
Added - Hindustan Unilever (8%)
11-Jan-13 Exited - Gail India ,Merck
Reduced - ITC to 5% of AUM
Added - Pidilite Industries , Glaxosmithkline
Pharmaceuticals, Bosch with 5% each
Reduced - ITC to 5%
Increased - Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals to 6%
Added - Pidilite Industries (4%), Elgi Equipments
(4%)
Reduced- ITC to 5% of AUM
Added - Pidilite Industries (5%), Jubilant
Foodworks (5%)
30-Aug-12 Reduced - Bluedart to 4%, M&M to 3% Reduced- Bluedart to 4%, M&M to 3%, Jyothy
Labs to 4%
Exited -Tube Investments, Gillette India, IFCI
Added - Asian Paints(5%), Specialty Restaurant
(5%),Procter & Gamble Hygiene and Healthcare
(4%)
Added -Specialty Restaurant (5%) and Marico (4%)
Reduced - Bluedart to 4%, M&M to 3%,Jyothy
Labs to 5%, Tube Investments to 2.5%,Sobha
Developers to 2%
Exited - Gillette India, IFCI
Increased -Asian Paints to 5%
30-Apr-12 Replaced - Colgate Pamolive by Gillette India Replaced - Britannia Industries by Dabur India,
Colgate Pamolive by Gillette, Jain Irrigation by
Asian Paints
Continued…
Portfolio Changes Summary
Date Conservative Moderate Aggressive
31-Jan-12 Exited Jain Irrigation DVR
30-Nov-11 Added - Colgate Pamolive (5%)
Exited - Asian Paints
Added - Colgate Palmolive (5%)
25-Nov-11 Exited -Maruti, Pantaloon Retail Exited -Pantaloon Retail
16-Nov-11 Exited - Ajanta Pharma
15-Nov-11 Increased - M&M to 6% Increased - M&M to 6% Increased - M&M to 6%
1-Nov-11 Added - Bayer Crop Science (5%) Added - Bayer Crop Science (5%), Pfizer (5%) Added - Bayer Crop Science (5%), Pfizer (7%)
1-Nov-11 Exited -DLF, HDFC Bank,ICRA Exited- BHEL, Sobha Developers, PNB, Reilance
Industries
Exited -Crompton Greaves, Allahbad Bank, HDFC
Bank,Tamilnadu Newsprint
Increased - Britannia by 3%
31-Oct-11 Added - M&M (5%), Merck (5%) Added - M&M (5%), Merck (5%) Added - Merck (5%), Britannia Industries (3%)
Increased - M&M to 6%
Replaced - Grasim by Ajanta Pharma
Reduced - Hindustan Unilever to 3.7% of AUM
30-Sep-11 Replaced - GSK Consumer Healthcare by Asian
Paints
Replaced - Dabur India by Hindustan Unilever, Sun
Pharmaceuticals by Grasim
29 April 10, 2014
Paints Pharmaceuticals by Grasim
19-Sep-11 Exited - Maruti Suzuki Exited - Maruti Suzuki Exited - Maruti Suzuki
30-Aug-11 Replaced -Gillette India by GSK Consumer
Healthcare
Replaced - Apollo Hospital Enterprises by Sun
Pharma, P&G Hygine and Healthcare by Dabur
India
9-Aug-11 Exited - ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank
Reduced- IFCI , PNB and SBI by 1% each
Introduced - HDFC (4%) and HUL (4%)
Increased - NTPC by 2.5% of AUM
Exited - ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank
Reduced - Allahabad Bank by 2%, PNB by 3%
Introduced -HDFC Bank (4%) and ITC (6%)
Increased- P&G Hygiene by 1% of AUM
29-Jul-11 Replaced- Tata Power by Gillette India Replaced- Lupin byApollo Hospital Enterprises, EIH
by P&G Hygine and Healthcare
20-Jul-11 Reduced-DLF by 2% of AUM Reduced - Sobha Developers by 2% of AUM Reduced - Crompton Greaves by 2% and L&T by
2% of AUM
30-Jun-11 Replaced - Dabur by Tata Power Replaced - Pfizer by Lupin, Aditya Birla Nuvo by EIH
Continued…
Portfolio Changes Summary
Date Conservative Moderate Aggressive
27-Jun-11 Reduced- Maruti Suzuki to 2% of AUM Added - PNB 4% of AUM
Reduced -Maruti Suzuki to 2% of AUM
Exited - Suprajit Engineering
Increased - SBI 7%, NTPC 6% of AUM
Reduced - Maruti Suzuki to 2%, M&M to 2% of
AUM
Exited - GEI Industrial Systems
Added - PNB 7% of AUM
16-Jun-11 Replaced - Britannia Industries by Dabur Replaced - Godrej Consumer Products by Pfizer
31-May-11 Added - Tube Investments of India 3.2% of AUM
Replaced - Exide by Britannia Industries
Added - Tube Investments of India 4.3% of AUM
Replaced- Lupin by Aditya Birla Nuvo,Colgate
Palmolive Godrej Consumer Products
19-May-11 Exited - Dr Reddy's Lab
18-May-11 Exited - ONGC
5-May-11 Replaced - Deepak Fertilizers by Lupin
29-Apr-11 Reduced - Blue Dart to 4.5% of AUM Reduced - Blue Dart to 4.5% of AUM
Replaced - Biocon by ONGC, Onmobile by Suprajit
Engineering
Reduced - Bluedart to 4.5% of AUM
Replaced - Elder Pharma by Jain Irrigation,
Onmobile by GEI Industrial, Godrej Industries by
Dr. Reddy' lab, Opto Circuits by Deepak Fertilisers,
30 April 10, 2014
Gitanjali Gems by Colgate Palmolive
31-Mar-11 Portfolio Incorporated Portfolio Incorporated Portfolio Incorporated
Destimoney Securities Private Limited6th Floor, "A" Wing, Tech-Web Centre, New Link Road, Oshiwara, Near Behram Baug, Jogeshwari (West), Mumbai - 400102
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31 April 10, 2014
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