ITU-KADODigital Bridges Symposium

by George Sciadas

Busan, Korea, September 10-11, 2004

Monitoring the

Digital Divide…and beyond

An ORBICOM project

in collaboration with

- CIDA

- infoDev, World Bank

- UNESCO

and contributions from: ITU, MIMOS, UIS, Statistics Canada, NRC

Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond

● The Information Society

● ICTs for development

● The Digital Divide

● The need for a monitoring instrument

Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond

Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond

Objectiveso Quantify the Digital Divide across countries

o Monitor its evolution over time

Terms of referenceo Place emphasis on developing countries

o Policy relevance

o Broader scope than connectivity

Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond

The Conceptual Framework

The notion of Infostate

Infodensity (ICT stocks indicative of productive capacity)

ICT capital, ICT skills

Info-use (current ICT consumption flows)

ICT uptake, ICT intensity of use

o Infostates are ever-evolving and unbounded

- interplay between absolutes and relatives

Socio-economic, geopolitical and cultural environment

Economy

capital labour

ICT uptakeICT intensity of use

ICT infrastructure ICT skillsInfodensity

Info-useINFOSTATE

Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond

The Digital Divide is defined as the difference among countries’ Infostates

o Model conducive to detailed analytical linkages - impacts of policies on performance

- benchmarking, best practice, specific context, etc.

o Methodology robust for comparisons between ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’, but not intended for comparisons among top countries

Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond

The Empirical ApplicationAn indicators model

indicators: 21

countries: ranging from 192 for Networks to 139 for overall Infostate

coverage: 95%-99% of global population

years: 6 (1996-2001)

Reference year and country

2001 – data driven

Hypothetica – the average country

Planetia – the planet (viewed as one country)

Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond

Findings

o How big is the Digital Divide?

- Its magnitude is huge

- Differences between top and bottom are staggering

- With the average country at 100, in 2001,

Infostate values ranged from 231 to 5!

Infostates 2001

ChadEthiopiaMyanmarCentral African Rep.EritreaMalawiBangladeshMaliMozambiqueAngolaBurkina FasoCambodiaUgandaGuineaMadagascarSudanTanzaniaNigeriaNepalBeninGhanaYemenLao P.D.R.ZambiaCameroonDjiboutiMauritaniaPapua New GuineaKenyaPakistanSyriaGambiaCote d'IvoireIndiaTogoAlgeriaViet NamSenegalZimbabweSri LankaAlbaniaCubaGabonHondurasMoroccoIndonesiaNicaraguaMongoliaEgyptKyrgyzstanGuatemalaArmeniaParaguayBoliviaTunisiaMoldovaIran (Islamic Rep. of)GuyanaBotswanaPhilippinesChinaEl SalvadorNamibiaEcuadorSamoaGeorgiaUkraineFijiSaudi ArabiaPeruOmanThailandJordanColombiaYugoslaviaJamaicaVenezuelaPanamaRussiaRomaniaSouth AfricaBelizeTurkeyMexicoCosta RicaBulgariaLebanonKuwaitTrinidad and TobagoQatarBarbadosBrazilMauritiusLithuaniaHYPOTHETICAPLANETIAMalaysiaCroatiaLatviaPolandArgentinaUruguayChileMacauSlovak RepublicBrunei DarussalamBahrainGreeceUnited Arab EmiratesHungaryCyprusCzech RepublicEstoniaMaltaSpainItalySloveniaPortugalIsraelFranceIrelandJapanKorea (Rep. of)AustriaNew ZealandAustraliaUnited KingdomGermanySingaporeIcelandLuxembourgFinlandHongkongBelgiumNorwaySwitzerlandUnited StatesNetherlandsCanadaDenmarkSweden

2315 27 99 16958

Hypothetica = 100

E

D

C

B

A

Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond

Findings

o What are the main causes of the Digital Divide?

- All components contribute……but differ across countries and ICTs

- Generally, major causes are:

Networks, particularly newer technologies (Internet, cell phones)

Uptake – mostly PCs and Internet use

Skills - as we move to higher levels

Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond

Findings

o How is the Digital Divide evolving?

Generally closing but…

…due to middle countries catching up

…countries at the bottom- close slightly only against the top - continue to lose ground against all other countries

A (generally) closing Digital Divide

-150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200

`1996

2001

A closing Digital Divide

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Evolution of the Digital Divide between country groups

0

50

100

150

200

250

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

A-E

A-D

A-CB-E

A-BC-E

D-E

Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond

Findings

o At what speed is the Digital Divide evolving?

- at a painfully slow pace

- all things equal, it will take generations for countries at the bottom to achieve today’s Infostate levels of countries in the middle…

…which, by then, will have move upwards

Patterns of closing divides

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Mauritania

Zambia

Sudan

JordanBotswana

Argentina

Brazil

Slovak Republic

Malaysia

Hypothetica

normalizedInfostates

Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond

Findings

o What contributes most to the slow overall

closing of the Digital Divide?

Mostly the newer technologies

- Internet use

- mobile telephony

- Internet networks

2001/1996 ratios

A/E Hypothetica

Contributors to the closing Divide

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

PCs

literac

yenr

ollment

tertia

ry

wireline

TV househ

olds

res.ph

ones

Intern

et

mobile

Intern

et use

Evolution - Brazil

2001 1996 Hypothetica

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140wireline

mobile

Internet

literacy

enrollment

TV households

residential phones

PCs

Internet users

int'l telephone traffic

Evolution - Senegal

2001 1996 Hypothetica

0

20

40

60

80

100wireline

mobile

Internet

literacy

enrollment

TV households

residential phones

PCs

Internet users

int'l telephone traffic

Evolution - Estonia

2001 1996 Hypothetica

0

50

100

150

200

250

300wireline

mobile

Internet

literacy

enrollment

TV households

residential phones

PCs

Internet users

int'l telephone traffic

Evolution - Ghana

2001 1996 Hypothetica

0

20

40

60

80

100wireline

mobile

Internet

literacy

enrollment

TV households

residential phones

PCs

Internet users

int'l telephone traffic

Evolution - Ireland

2001 1996 Hypothetica

0

100

200

300

400wireline

mobile

Internet

literacy

enrollment

TV households

residential phones

PCs

Internet users

int'l telephone traffic

Macro linkages

o Correlation between Infostates and GDP

Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond

o The relationship is more complicated, though, and there are exceptions

In the 1996-2001 period, the marginal effect of an increase by one point in Infodensity is an increase of $124-$164 in per capita GDP

Infostate and per capita GDP, 2001

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

50

150

200

250

100

GDP per capita, $US, PPP

average

Infostate

- Knowledge vs. information

- Knowledge confers capacity for action

- Knowledge comes in many forms, valued differently in different cultures and times

- ICTs conducive to codified knowledge

- Mode 1 and Mode 2 knowledge

- Social dimensions in addition to personal

Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond

From Digital to Knowledge Divide

From Digital to Knowledge Divide

- Knowledge in the context of development

- Knowledge vs. knower, East vs. West, thing vs. process

- Knowledge creation

- Transferring knowledge and de-contextualization

- Local/indigenous knowledge and its integration

- Absorptive capacity is key – serious policy implications

Refers to the capability to track, understand and assimilate externally sourced knowledge

Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond

� Need to monitor progress for Tunis- continue empirical application

Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond

Document available at:

www.orbicom.uqam.ca

What’s next

� Intensify analytical activities- expand linkages, derive detailed insights

� Disseminate widely, solidify and expand partnerships