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SOCIO-SPATIAL DYNAMICS OF INFORMAL SETTLEMENTS IN THE PACIFIC ISLAND

COUNTRIES

APPLICATION OF AN AGENT-BASED MODEL FOR WATER SUPPLY

IN FIJI AND VANUATU

Project SOSPADIS

PRESENTATION Overview & Methodology

PGRSC ConferenceUSP Japan ICT Auditorium

26th - 30th November 2018

Pascal DUMAS - Associate ProfessorResearch interests -> Geomatics, GIS, soil erosionand risk analysisEmai l : pascal.dumas@unc.ncPhone : +687 290 434

Gilles ENEE - Associate ProfessorResearch interests -> Computer Science, modeling,

ABMEmai l : gilles. ENEE@unc.ncPhone : +687 290 622

Frédéric FLOUVAT - Associate ProfessorResearch interests -> -> Data Sciences, Data Mining, Big DataEmai l : frederic.flouvat@unc.ncPhone : +687 290 315

Jean-Marie FOTSING - ProfessorResearch interests -> Geography, Planning and GeomaticsEmai l : jean-marie.FOTSING@unc.ncPhone : +687 290 435

Nazha SELMAOUI-FOLCHER - ProfessorResearch interests -> Data Sciences, Data Mining, BigDataEmai l : nazha.selmaoui@unc.ncPhone : +687 290 314

Camari KOTO - Assistant LecturerResearch interests -> livelihood dynamics in relation with socio-cultural & natural resouces systems, urbanpoverty, housing, social developmentEmai l : camari.koto@usp.ac.fjPhone : +679 323 2467

Eberhard WEBER- Associate ProfessorResearch interests -> geography of development, urbanplanning and housing, conflicts over natural resourcesand environmental security.

Emai l : eberhard.weber@usp.ac.fjPhone : +679 323 2222

Nick ROLLINGS - Associate ProfessorResearch interests -> Geoscientist specialised in the application of GIS, remote sensing and associatedgeospatial technologies.Emai l : nicholas.rollings@usp.ac.fjPhone : +679 323 2620

John LOWRY - Senior LecturerResearch interests -> Geospatial science applications in urban planning, environmental

management, urban landscape planning.Emai l : J.Lowry@massey.ac.nzPhone : +64 (06) 356 9099

Project SOSPADIS

Project partners

November 2018

1. Project objectives

- To understand the social and spatial forcesthat occur in informal settlements (IS) andtheir influence on the built morphology ofIS.

- To develop an agent-based simulation of ISspatial growth (= vector-based settlementgrowth model).

- To suggest different scenarios of watersupply provisions.

- To contribute to the knowledge andunderstanding of urban dynamics in thePacific region.

- To strenghten regional cooperationbetween the different universities involvedin the project and to create appliedresearch synergies with on-going projects.

Project SOSPADIS

November 2018

2. Informal settlement morphological growth

Initial morphologicalpattern (at time t)

Consolidation Infilling Expansion

Fig. Types of growth observed in settlements in Pacific towns and cities (Kiddle, 2011 ; UN-Habitat, 2016)

Morphological pattern at time t+1 = combination of these types of growth

The morphological pattern at t+1 results from :

- A set of individual decisions according to economical aspects (monthly incomes, land rentalpayments, ….) and a range of socio-cultural orders and interactions i.e. norms, values, practices and attitudes that give settlements their local distinctiveness.

- Interactions within the community and between the community and the outside world (proximity to jobs, infrastructures, service provisions, ….).

- The physical environment (slopes, flooding zones, vegetation, …)

Project SOSPADIS

November 2018

Phases of development in informal settlements differ from the central tenets of formal planning

Settlement development:

-A bottom-up and organicprocess

- Without any urban planning rules a priori,

- A self-organising system operated by individualdecisions, social interactions and interactions with the physical environment.

Source : ADB, 2016

How to plan these infrastructures ???

Can a better understanding of settlement dynamics contribute to a better efficiency for public service provision ?

Project SOSPADIS

2. Informal settlement morphological growth

November 2018

Project SOSPADIS

3. Research framework

November 2018

Focus of thispresentation-> Methodology usedto build the model

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Bousquet et al., 1996 :« Elaborating an ABM aims to reproduce an artificial world mimicking the observed world in thefact that it is composed of different agents. Each agent is computerised as an entity endowedwith self-governance, capable of acting locally in response to stimulations or communicationswith other agents, and able to visualize its environment. »

AGENT

AGENT

OBJETS OF THE ENVIRONMENT

PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT

perception

action

communication

OBJECTIVESLEARNING & KNOWLEDGE

RESOURCES

myenvironment him/her

me

representation

Project SOSPADIS

4. Agent-based modelling

November 2018

The challenge is to thoroughly describe all the parameters (social, environmental andeconomical) that are involved in the socio-spatial growing process of an IS and tocharacterise the interactions that will influence the morphological growth of a settlement.

- Why an agent has decided to settle in the actual plot rather than somewhere elsewithin the settlement?

- What are the reasons for an agent to build an additional room? Where and how?

- Why some houseshave disappeared ?

2005 2017

- What water supply infrastructures are installed? What are the consumer water uses?

Project SOSPADIS

4. Agent-based modelling– The conceptual phase

November 2018

The purpose of the model is to identify trends and patterns leading to a specificmorphology

GIS environmental data

+

GIS social data

Agents

Household agentsLandowner agentCBO agentsWater Manager agent

Population sizeEthnic distribution

Slope, DEMRivers, streamsRoads and pathsAnnual rainfall

Habitat suitability map

= Agent-based model

Project SOSPADIS

4. Agent-based modelling– The conceptual phase

November 2018

*Schematic representation adapted from Rebaudo et al., 2011

To caracterise the dynamics of growth, the present study is inspired by the Housing model developed by Augustijn-Beckers et al., 2011

MULTI-AGENT ORGANIZATION OF BASECO INFORMAL

SETTLEMENT IN MANILA, PHILIPPINES

Jason HEINRICH. 2016(https://www.youtube.com/

watch?v=85xzOa23Xdg)

Construction of a probability map :

- Water infrastructures- access

- soil stability- risks of typhoons

Project SOSPADIS

4. Agent-based modelling– The conceptual phase

November 2018

4. Agent-based modelling

SPATIAL COMPONENT

- Spatial metrics & morphology- Habitat suitability map

SOCIAL COMPONENT

- Agent attributes- Agents’ Behaviour rules

MODEL SCRIPTING(NETLOGO language)

MODEL IMPLEMENTATION&VALIDATION

1

2

3

Project SOSPADIS

November 2018

CONCEPTUAL PHASE - ABM

Step 1 : Data acquisition (aerial photos and satellite images at different date + drone data acquisition)

Objectives:- Spatio-temporal analysis of IS morphologies (geometry).- A set of indicators (spatial metrics) that will be used in the establishment of rules or thresholds in the model. - A Habitat (probability) suitability map -> environmental matrix.

Project SOSPADIS

5. Spatial component of the project

November 2018

Step 2 : Image treatment-> extraction of different elements (built, roads&footpaths, vegetation, ...) -> segmentation and object classification

2004 2015 2017©Google Earth ©Google Earth ©Google Earth

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Step 3 : The use of spatial metrics at different scales :- Settlement scale (size, shape, morphology, density, terrain….)- Object scale (size and shape of dwellings, road & footpath characteristics, access and proximityto resources)

Step 4 : Development of a habitat suitability map

Project SOSPADIS

5. Spatial component of the project

Methodology of work to be established during USP-UNC workshopSupervised Research Project (USP student Aleen Prasad)

November 2018

6. Site selection - Fiji Islands

Lautoka

Nadi

Sigatoka Lami

SUVA

Ba

Annual rainfall (mm)

Site selection (UN-Habitat, 2016)

- No formal water connectionsValenicina = 49% dwellingsTauvegavega = 27% dwellings

- Different locations in Viti Levu withdifferent rainfall

- Different ethnic communitiesValenicina = majority iTaukeiTauvegavega = majority Indo-Fijians

Pop. : 1140Households : 307

Pop. : 721Households : 106Project SOSPADIS

November 2018

6. Site selection– Vanuatu

Source : UN-Habitat. 2015. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment - Greater Port-Vila

Project SOSPADIS

November 2018

14. Sali li

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Minsitry of European and ForeignAffairsPermanent Seretariat for the Pacific Region

« Fonds Pacifique » (Pacific Fund)

Governement of New CaledoniaDepartment of regional cooperation & external relations

Convention n°CS118-3007-000019

Internal UNC-PIURN Call for proposals

Coordinator : F. FLOUVAT

Funding request for strengtheningUNC-USP collaboration (workshops), drone campaign in Vanuatu, satellite images, spatial analysis internship ….

Project SOSPADIS

7. Funding sources

November 2018

Vinakavaka levu