Post on 11-Apr-2017
The 2015 Free Agent Pitching
MarketDiamond Dollars Case Competition
Columbia 2015
Syracuse UniversityWillie Kniesner | Brandon Lane | Olivia Lavelle
Jeremy Losak | Evan Weiss
Table of Contents1.Methodology2.Player Pages3.Final Rankings 4.Contracts and Years Pre Qualifying Offer5.After The Qualifying Offer6.After Accounting For Market Depth
Methodology
Definitions
• fWAR used in all references of WAR. Steamer used for all WAR projections of 2015 FA.
• Aging Curve: -0.4 WAR per year
• FA Score:
ARaWeightedWwWAR
AgeaAge )(
Value Modely = Value Variable
x1 = Projected WAR Per Season x2 = Agex3 = Qualifying Offerx4 = Past Injuriesx5 = Pitches Thrown In The Majorsx6 = Pitches Thrown/Season x7 = Consistency Variable (season to season)
Value Variable:• 1-10 rating where the higher
the rating, the better you are compared to the other individuals on this list.
• Model uses free agents who made over $10M AAV dating back to 2010.
• $10M cutoff to analyze a subset of top quality free agents.
Value Modely = Value Variable
x1 = Projected WAR Per Season x2 = Agex3 = Qualifying Offerx4 = Past Injuriesx5 = Pitches Thrown In The Majorsx6 = Pitches Thrown/Season x7 = Consistency Variable (season to season)
Projected WAR Per Season• WAR per season throughout
the contract. • For 2015 FA, Steamer WAR
used. 0.4 WAR is subtracted per projected year of the contract.
• For previous year FA where projected Steamer WAR is not available, projected WAR is calculated as part of a projection model using the two previous season WARs.
Value Modely = Value Variable
x1 = Projected WAR Per Season x2 = Agex3 = Qualifying Offerx4 = Past Injuriesx5 = Pitches Thrown In The Majorsx6 = Pitches Thrown/Season x7 = Consistency Variable (season to season)
Age:• Age entering the season you
signed the contract.
Value Modely = Value Variable
x1 = Projected WAR Per Season x2 = Agex3 = Qualifying Offerx4 = Past Injuriesx5 = Pitches Thrown In The Majorsx6 = Pitches Thrown/Season x7 = Consistency Variable (season to season)
Qualifying Offer:• Yes/No variable. • For players under the Type A/B
FA, Yes/No dummy variable if the player was designated a Type A FA.
• For 2015 FA:• Average free agent score
calculated for all free agents 2010-2014 receiving a qualifying offer.
• A free agent that has a FA Score greater than one standard deviation below the mean is projected to receive a qualifying offer for this analysis.
Value Modely = Value Variable
x1 = Projected WAR Per Season x2 = Agex3 = Qualifying Offerx4 = Past Injuriesx5 = Pitches Thrown In The Majorsx6 = Pitches Thrown/Season x7 = Consistency Variable (season to season)
Past Injuries:• Yes/No variable used to
determine if a player has a history of chronic injuries.
• Player has the same injury two times in a three year span prior to free agency.
Value Modely = Value Variable
x1 = Projected WAR Per Season x2 = Agex3 = Qualifying Offerx4 = Past Injuriesx5 = Pitches Thrown In The Majorsx6 = Pitches Thrown/Season x7 = Consistency Variable (season to season)
Pitches Thrown:• Used to measure mileage on
arm leading up to free agency. • Pitches thrown measures total
mileage while pitches thrown per season measures how much of a workhorse that player is.
• Total pitches only available since 2002.
• Pitches thrown per season only includes player seasons with at least 15 starts.
Value Modely = Value Variable
x1 = Projected WAR Per Season x2 = Agex3 = Qualifying Offerx4 = Past Injuriesx5 = Pitches Thrown In The Majorsx6 = Pitches Thrown/Season x7 = Consistency Variable (season to season)
Consistency:• WAR Variance between seasons.• How consistent is a player? Do
you know what you’re going to get?
Player Profiles
Value Score 8.82Projected WAR
3.7 (1)
Age 30Qualifying Offer
No
Injury Risk NoPitches Thrown In Majors
22,725 (10)
Pitches Thrown/Season
2,840 (2)
Consistency 2.79 (13)The Good:
• Consistent workhorse
• Multiple Top Pitches
• High K’s low BB’s
The Bad?:• Mileage? • The Price Tag
David Price
Value Score 8.44Projected WAR
1.9 (7)
Age 30Qualifying Offer
No
Injury Risk YesPitches Thrown In Majors
22,785 (11)
Pitches Thrown/Season
2,848 (1)
Consistency 1.82 (8)
The Good:• Consistently top pitcher• Top production for
relatively lower contract
The Bad?:• Delivery raises health
questions• Kansas City Struggles?
Johnny Cueto
Zack Greinke
Value Score 8.31Projected WAR
3.0 (2)
Age 32Qualifying Offer
Yes
Injury Risk NoPitches Thrown In Majors
33,193 (14)
Pitches Thrown/Season
2,766 (5)
Consistency 2.66 (12)
The Good:• Command makes
up for average velocity
• Has elite movement on his pitches
• Limits baserunners and contact
• He can hit
The Bad?:• Wrong side of 30
long-term contract
• Will continuing decrease in velocity be an issue down the line?
Jordan Zimmermann
Value Score 7.13Projected WAR
1.8 (8)
Age 29Qualifying Offer
Yes
Injury Risk NoPitches Thrown In Majors
16,794 (7)
Pitches Thrown/Season
2,399 (8)
Consistency 1.22 (7)The Good:• No lingering effects
from 2009 Tommy John surgery
• Low BB%• Fastball sets up
breaking pitches
The Bad:• Fastball was not
particularly effective last season
Value Score 6.95Projected WAR
2.1 (4)
Age 29Qualifying Offer
Yes
Injury Risk YesPitches Thrown In Majors
10,930 (2)
Pitches Thrown/Season
1,561 (13)
Consistency 7.52 (14)
Name Team ERA FIP GB% K% BB% HR/FBJaime Garcia Cardinals 2.43 3.00 61.20% 19.00% 5.90% 7.10%Dallas Keuchel Astros 2.48 2.91 61.70% 23.70% 5.60% 13.60%
Jaime Garcia
The Good:• Low risk/high reward• Lives and dies (but
mostly lives) on the ground ball
• Slider as a potential out pitch
The Bad:• Injury history• Waiting for a
complete season
Value Score 6.86Projected WAR
1.7 (9)
Age 30Qualifying Offer
Yes
Injury Risk NoPitches Thrown In Majors
11,316 (3)
Pitches Thrown/Season
2829 (3)
Consistency 0.11 (1)
Wei-Yin Chen
The Good:• CONSISTENT
The Bad:• CONSISTENT
Value Score 6.86Projected WAR
2.9 (3)
Age 34Qualifying Offer
Yes
Injury Risk NoPitches Thrown In Majors
9428 (1)
Pitches Thrown/Season
2357 (9)
Consistency 1.85 (9)
Hisashi Iwakuma
The Good:• Consistently above
average pitcher• Finesse stuff• Lowest BB% on
this list
The Bad:• Age (but with
low MLB mileage)
• High contact percentage against
Value Score 5.98Projected WAR
1.6 (11)
Age 31Qualifying Offer
Yes
Injury Risk NoPitches Thrown In Majors
15,907 (5)
Pitches Thrown/Season
1,988 (11)
Consistency 0.49 (4)Jeff Samardzija
The Good:• Workhorse• Four pitches, each with
above average movement and velocity
• Clear value The Bad:• Significant decrease in K%• Allows plenty of HRs
Value Score 5.87Projected WAR
1.4 (12)
Age 28Qualifying Offer
No
Injury Risk NoPitches Thrown In Majors
16,277 (6)
Pitches Thrown/Season
2,713 (6)
Consistency 0.27 (3)The Good:• Age• Low mileage on
arm• ConsistentThe Bad:• Too much contact• Low strikeouts• Low Velocity
Mike Leake
Value Score 5.71Projected WAR
0.9 (13)
Age 30Qualifying Offer
Yes
Injury Risk NoPitches Thrown In Majors
24,992 (12)
Pitches Thrown/Season
2,777 (4)
Consistency 0.72 (5)
The Good:• All of his pitches
have above average movement
The Bad:• K% decreasing• Allowing plenty of
baserunners
Yovani Gallardo
Yovani Gallardo
The Good:• All of his pitches
have above average movement
The Bad:• K% decreasing• Allowing plenty of
baserunners
Value Score 5.71Projected WAR
0.9 (13)
Age 30Qualifying Offer
Yes
Injury Risk NoPitches Thrown In Majors
24,992 (12)
Pitches Thrown/Season
2,777 (4)
Consistency 0.72 (5)
Bottom Four: Scott Kazmir, Ian Kennedy, J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada
Scott Kazmir
Ian Kennedy
J.A. Happ Marco Estrada
Value Score 5.46 5.38 4.16 3.48Projected WAR 2.1 (6) 2.1 (5) 1.6 (10) 0.2 (14)Age 32 31 33 32Qualifying Offer No Yes No NoInjury Risk No No No NoPitches Thrown In Majors
26,835 (13) 20,469 (9) 17,643 (8) 11,866 (4)
Pitches Thrown/Season
2,440 (7) 2,274 (10) 1,960 (12) 1,483 (14)
Consistency 0.16 (2) 2.60 (11) 0.83 (6) 1.94 (10)
Rankings And Contract Projections
Final Player Rankings1.David Price (8.82)2. Johnny Cueto (8.44)3.Zack Greinke (8.31)4. Jordan Zimmermann (7.13)5. Jaime Garcia (6.95)6.Wei-Yin Chen (6.861)7.Hisashi Iwakuma (6.857)
8. Jeff Samardzija (5.98)9.Mike Leake (5.87)10. Yovani Gallardo (5.72)11. Scott Kazmir (5.46)12. Ian Kennedy (5.38)13. J.A. Happ (4.16)14. Marco Estrada (3.48)
Initial Contract Projections
Rank
Name Years
Total Dollars
AAV
8 Jeff Samardzija
4 $78.0 M $19.5 M
9 Mike Leake 3 $42.0 M $14.0 M
10 Yovani Gallardo
3 $45.0 M $15.0 M
11 Scott Kazmir 3 $49.5 M $16.5 M
12 Ian Kennedy 2 $22.0 M $11.0 M
13 J.A. Happ 3 $39.0 M $13.0 M
14 Marco Estrada
2 $15.0 M $7.5 M
Rank
Name Years
Total Dollars
AAV
1 David Price 7 $227.5 M $32.5 M
2 Johnny Cueto 5 $115.0 M $23.0 M
3 Zack Greinke 6 $165.0 M $27.5 M
4 Jordan Zimmermann
5 $122.5 M $24.5 M
5 Jaime Garcia 2 $23.0 M $11.5 M
6 Wei-Yin Chen 4 $66.0 M $16.5 M
7 Hisashi Iwakuma 3 $43.5 M $14.5 M
Contract Projections After Qualifying Offer
Rank
Name Years
Total Dollars
AAV
8 Jeff Samardzija
4 $76.0 M $19.0 M
9 Mike Leake 3 $42.0 M $14.0 M
10 Yovani Gallardo
3 $42.0 M $14.0 M
11 Scott Kazmir 3 $49.5 M $16.5 M
12 Ian Kennedy 2 $20.0 M $10.0 M
13 J.A. Happ 3 $39.0 M $13.0 M
14 Marco Estrada
2 $15.0 M $7.5 M
Rank
Name Years
Total Dollars
AAV
1 David Price 7 $227.5 M $32.5 M
2 Johnny Cueto 5 $115.0 M $23.0 M
3 Zack Greinke 6 $162.0 M $27.0 M
4 Jordan Zimmermann
5 $120.0 M $24.0 M
5 Jaime Garcia 2 $20.0 M $10.0 M
6 Wei-Yin Chen 4 $63.5 M $16.0 M
7 Hisashi Iwakuma 3 $42.0 M $14.0 M
Contract Projections After Market Depth
Rank
Name Years
Total Dollars
AAV
8 Jeff Samardzija
4 $68.0 M $17.0 M
9 Mike Leake 3 $39.75 M $13.25 M
10 Yovani Gallardo
3 $39.75 M $13.25 M
11 Scott Kazmir 3 $45.75 M $15.25 M
12 Ian Kennedy 2 $19.0 M $9.5 M13 J.A. Happ 3 $38.25 M $12.75
M14 Marco
Estrada2 $15.0 M $7.5 M
Rank
Name Years
Total Dollars
AAV
1 David Price 7 $196.0 M $28.0 M
2 Johnny Cueto 5 $105.0 M $21.0 M
3 Zack Greinke 6 $141.0 M $23.5 M
4 Jordan Zimmermann
5 $106.25 M $21.25 M
5 Jaime Garcia 2 $20.0 M $10.0 M
6 Wei-Yin Chen 4 $61.0 M $15.25 M
7 Hisashi Iwakuma 3 $39.75 M $13.25 M 8586.0)(
WARpaWeightedawWAR
aAgepaAge
Change In Contract AAV After Adjustments
• David Price $32.5 M $28.0 M• Johnny Cueto $23.0 M $21.0 M• Zack Greinke $27.5 M $23.5 M• Jordan Zimmermann $24.5 M $21.25 M• Jaime Garcia $11.5 M $10.0 M• Wei-Yin Chen $16.5 M $15.25 M• Hisashi Iwakuma $14.5 M
$13.25 M
• Jeff Samardzija $19.5 M $17.0 M
• Mike Leake $14.0 M $13.25 M• Yovani Gallardo $15.0 M
$13.25 M • Scott Kazmir $16.5 M $15.25 M• Ian Kennedy $11.0 M $9.5 M • J.A. Happ $13.0 M $12.75 M• Marco Estrada $7.5 M $7.5 M
Any Questions?