Post on 19-Jan-2016
Developments in
Critical Loads and Dynamic Modelling
Maximilian Posch
Coordination Center for Effects (CCE)ICP Modelling & Mapping (ICP M&M)Working Group on Effects (WGE)
MNP, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
Update of CL and DM data in spring 2005:
2 calls for data:
1. CLs of heavy metals (Pb, Cd, Hg): - different criteria (ecosystem/health) - 18 NFCs responded - EMEP/MSC-E provided depositions/conc. (emission uncertainties!) - Health->agriculture->fertiliser inputs important - Pb more exceeded than Cd - use in review/revision of HM Protocol as yet undecided - CCE Report distributed; available on www
Update of CL and DM data in spring 2005 (2):
2. CLs of acidity & nutrient N and DynMod of acidity:
- 14/13 provided update (of 24 NFCs)- EMEP/MSC-W provided deposition data (also BC deposition!)- Overall, not many changes in CLs- DynMod clearly adds to complexity …- CCE Report being sent out; already available on www
Coverage:
Grid: CL data from NFCs – Green: Also DynMod – Red: Also Target Loads
Exceedance of acidity CLs (1):
Exceedance %: EU25: 17.9 11.0 7.0 4.1 3.7 3.4 1.8 Europe: 8.6 6.1 4.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 0.9
Exceedance of acidity CLs (2):
Exceedance %: EU25: 17.9 11.0 7.0 4.1 3.7 3.4 1.8 Europe: 8.6 6.1 4.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 0.9
Exceedance of eutrophication CLs (1):
Exceedance %: EU25: 65.2 60.4 55.9 45.7 40.9 38.6 24.6 Europe: 28.5 28.0 26.9 23.6 22.3 21.6 9.6
Exceedance of eutrophication CLs (2):
Exceedance %: EU25: 65.2 60.4 55.9 45.7 40.9 38.6 24.6 Europe: 28.5 28.0 26.9 23.6 22.3 21.6 9.6
Use to date (Gothenburg Protocol, NEC Directive):
- Within every 150x150 EMEP grid cell so-called (protection and) exceedance isolines were calculated by the CCE and provided to CIAM/TFIAM.- This is an approximation; and results in a large amount of data. Also, the implementation in optimization algorithms is non-trivial.
New challenges:
- 50x50 grid: number of grids 500 4,000- ecosystem-specific depositions (>= 3 per grid cell)
too many data and equations for optimisation …
The Use of CLs in Integrated Assessment (IA)i.e. how CL data are used by CIAM/TFIAM
KkEEafAAEAAEP
p
N
jjpjpjkpkk
p
,...1,1 1
,,,0..,0
AAEk is the AAE in receptor k for the new (or to be determined) emissions Ep,j of pollutant p in emitter area j;AAE0,k is the AAE for the reference emissions E0,p,j; Np is the number of emitter regions for pollutant p,P is the number of pollutants (P=3),f is a unit conversion factor, K is the number of receptor areas.ap,k,j are the coefficients – impact factors -- determining the linear model, characterising the ‘strength’ of the relationship between emissions of pollutant p in country j and AAE in region k.
… therefore new methodology:
Linearised relationship between AAE and emissions:
[Similar methodology used in Life Cycle Impact Assessment]
Graphical representation of impact coefficients for eutrophication:
Graphical representation of impact coefficients for acidity:
How good is the linear approximation? (1)
Country-to-country relationships (acidity & nutrient N):2 examples: BE NL and DE SE
SO2: red; NO2: green; NH3: blue
acidity
aciditynutrient N
nutrient N
How good is the linear approximation? (2)
(a) All countries GB(b) All countries to Europe
acidification: redeutrophication: green
Ongoing Work:
- Derive impact factors for Target Loads instead of CLs (exceedance non-attainment)
- Investigate how time information (RDT and DDT) can be used in IAM
More information:
CCE reports 2005: - Heavy Metals Report
- Status Report 2005
CCE website: www.mnp.nl/cce
Thank you for your attention!