Development Hypothesis or Theory of ChangeM&E Capacity Strengthening Workshop, Maputo19 and 20 September 2011

Arif Rashid, TOPS

Development Hypothesis or Theory of Change

• ………….Is a systematic exploration of the links between activities, outcomes, goal and the context.

Slide # 1

DH or TC is a “Process and a “Product”

• A structured thinking PROCESS that allows groups to turn their theories about what needs to change and why into a “causal pathway”.

• A PRODUCT that illustrates the results of the change process.

Slide # 2

What is a “Causal Pathway”?

• A step-by-step backwards mapping process through which a group determines ALL the preconditions necessary to reach an ultimate goal. In USAID terminology this is called Development Hypothesis (ADS 201)

Low Per Capita Income

Low HH Income High dependency ratio

HH members have low level of skills

Limited employment opportunities

Limited access to financial resources

Large family size

Single income earner in the HH

Slide # 3

Elements of a Theory of Change/ Development Hypothesis

• A pathway of change that shows the connections between longterm, intermediate and early outcomes

• Statements that explain how the intervention fits along the pathway of change

• Justifications that explain why the initiative expects change to occur

Slide # 4

Why We Need One?

• Participatory process• Creates realistic program expectations• Create a safe place to be reflective• Can improve monitoring and evaluation• Improves understanding about the program

logic

Slide # 5

Uses

• Decision making: Whether to carry out an activity

• Align of program activities with goals• Monitor the results chain• Evaluation

Slide # 6

Other Advantages

• Gaps between steps and outcomes become evident

• Can refine project strategies to achieve the goal• Can revise the assumptions• Evaluations based on a theory carry more

weight• Improves transparency

Slide # 7

The Pathway of ChangeU

nderlying conditions

Intervention

Intervention

Intervention

Intervention

Output

Output

Output

Output

Outcome

Outcome

Outcome

Outcome

Higher level outcome

Higher level outcome

Long term goal

Influenced by our thinking

Learn from our actions

Refine our thinking

Pathway of change

Slide # 8

Development Hypothesis “Steps”

• Determine the Goal• Develop the Outcomes map• Identify which of the outcomes

your project will address• Identify activities that will help

achieve the outcomes

Slide # 9

Causal Pathway to Results Framework

Slide # 10

Approximate correlation between RF and indicator levels

Strategic Objective 1 Strategic Objective 2

OverarchingGoal

Intermediate Result 1.1

Intermediate Result 1.2

Activities:a)b)c)

Activities:a)b)c)

Activities:a)b)c)

Intermediate Result 2.1

OutputsProcessesInputs

Low – medium levelOutcome Indicators

Impact Indicators

Higher levelOutcome Indicators

Adapted from FANTA 2 presentation Slide # 11

Basic Purposes of Results Framework

Strategic Objective 1 Strategic Objective 2

OverarchingGoal

Intermediate Result 1.1

Intermediate Result 1.2

Activities:a)b)c)

Activities:a)b)c)

Activities:a)b)c)

Intermediate Result 2.1

OutputsProcessesInputs

Low – medium levelOutcome Indicators

Impact Indicators

Higher levelOutcome Indicators

Adapted from FANTA 2 presentation Slide # 11

PROJECT DESIGN/

PLANNING

MONITORING&

EVALUATIONCOMMUNICATION

How will you know if you have succeeded

• Identify indicators for each outcome you want to address.

Example:• Outcome: Improved HH food production

practices adopted and utilized– Change in yield (+)– Change in farm size (+)– Change in cropping intensity (+)

Slide # 12

What must be determined for each indicator?

• Who will be impacted?• How many will be impacted?• How much will it change?• When will it change by?

Slide # 13

How will you measure the indicator

• Determine:– What measurement tool to use?– When to measure?– Who will do the measurement?

Slide # 14

Design Interventions

• Determine the interventions (actions, strategies) to be used to achieve identified outcomes. What will be done, by who, how, and when?

• Test your assumptions (Will these actions really work? Do your organization have the capacity to implement them? )

Slide # 15

Production of non-traditional crops increased

Activities (Inputs)

IR

SO Farm incomes increased

We train farmers from 50 households to use new seeds, and

We distribute seeds and fertilizer

Goal Poverty reduced

1 bag of seed and 5 bags of fertilizer distributed to 50 households;

50 households trained in cultivation of new crop.

Only 5 of 50 households produced the new crop.

Household incomes remained unchanged

Monitoring at every level helps pinpoint where a barrier may exist

Families had to eat the seeds during the hungry months

Adapted from FANTA 2 presentation Slide # 16

This presentation was made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the responsibility of Save the Children and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.