Developing Strategies to Manage Mountain Bike Culture and Demand

National Outdoor Recreation ConferenceMay 7, 2019Debbie Caffin: Trails Program Leader, USDA Forest Service Southern RegionMargaret Bailey: CHM Government Services

Vision Drives Strategy

Tools Are Developed

Outcomes Are

Measured

Need to Understand

Mt. Biking Industry

User Preferences

Supply and Demand Dynamics

Analysis Framework

Demand

Demand

38,457 38,940 38,11440,140 39,320 40,349 39,232

40,888 39,72538,280 38,365

6,751 6,892 7,592 7,142 7,161 6,816 7,714 8,542 8,044 8,316 8,615

1,655 1,887 1,904 1,811 2,369 1,547 2,175 2,168 2,350 2,690 3,104

03,0006,0009,000

12,00015,00018,00021,00024,00027,00030,00033,00036,00039,00042,00045,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Total Biking Industry Participation (Thousands)

Bicycling (Road/Paved Surface) Mountain biking (Mountain/Non Paved Surface BMX Biking

5 year 10 year2006-2011 2011 to 2016

Adventure Racing 2.9% 3.5%Backpacking Overnight - More Than 1/4 Mile From Vehicle/Home 0.07% 3.7%Hiking (Day) 4.2% 6.5%Trail Running 9.0% 15.2%

Bicycling (Road/Paved Surface 0.96% -1.0%Mountain Biking (Mountain/Non Paved) 0.19% 4.1%BMX Biking -1.34% 11.6%

Activity

Compound Annual Growth Rate

Demand

Total Mt. Bike Supply

# of Total Mtn Bike

Trails %

Total Trail Mtn Bike Mileage %

USFS # of Trails for

Mtn Bikes

USFS Trail Mtn Bike Mileage

USFS % of Total Trail Inventory

USFS % of Total Trail Mileage

# of Trails Minus Forest Service

# of Trail Miles Minus

Forest Service

Virginia 745 32% 1,942 33% 316 1276 42% 66% 429 666 North Carolina 579 25% 1,315 22% 142 365 25% 28% 437 950 South Carolina 160 7% 552 9% N/A N/A N/A N/ATennessee 440 19% 899 15% 85 269 19% 30% 355 630 Georgia 379 16% 1,148 20% 246 219 65% 19% 133 929 Total 2,303 100% 5,856 100% 789 2,129 34% 36% 1,354 3,175

Supply Characteristics

40% 40%

20% 20%

30%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

VA NC SC TN GA

Perc

ent o

f Tra

ils o

wne

d by

NF

Percent of Top Ten Trail Systems that are Owned by NF

Supply: # of Mt. Bike Trails by Location

Supply: Density and Trail Lengths

Demand: Distribution

Supply and Demand

120 Minute Drive Time from Population Centers to National Forests

Capacity Competency CIP O&MStrategic

Plan NEPA Design Build For ProfitNon Profit - University/FoundationsCountyState Federal (USFS/BLM)

Internal Internal Time Time Standards Standards

External External Systems Systems External External

Standards VolunteersExternal

Highly LikelySomewhat LikelyUnlikely

People Fiscal Processes

Owner

Resource Inputs Needed for Supply Additions/Improvements

Volunteers

FoundationsIMBA/SORBA

User Receation Fees

Resources Needed and Available to Support InputsFederal: RTP/TAP/TIGER

Federal: Annual Appropriations: Trails and Recreation & Natural Federal: Appalachian Regional

Commission Power Grants

County& State: Budgets as well as Hotel&Restaurant Taxes

Private Equity/Debt

Next Steps

• Brief Forest Supervisors (Decision Makers)

• One on One Calls with District Rangers (Public Interface)

• Share with Partners (Southern Off Road Bicycle Association)

Lessons Learned

• Good Data Makes a Difference

• Value of Comprehensive Independent Review

• All Lands Approach, Better Decisions

• Collaborate Around Results with Providers

• Remember Role of Resource Managers

Deb CaffinTrails Program Lead, USFS Southern Regiondcaffin@fs.fed.us404.347.4033

Margaret BaileySr. Vice PresidentCHM Government Servicesmbailey@chmgov.com978.232.3608