Design for Evaluation: Gordon & Betty Moore Foundation’s ... · Design for Evaluation: Gordon &...

2009 Environmental Evaluators Networking Forum

“Integrating Evaluation into a Program’s Design”

The George Washington University Trachtenberg School of Public Policy and Public Administration

Design for Evaluation:

Gordon & Betty Moore Foundation’s Andes Amazon Initiative

Luis A. Solórzano & Jared Hardner

Washington DC, June 8, 2009

Overview of Andes Amazon Initiative

Gordon & Betty Moore Foundation is a science-based, results-driven philanthropic organization. The Foundation operates proactively in three specific areas of focus: environmental conservation, science, and the San Francisco Bay Area. Distinct Initiatives have been created within these three Program areas. An Initiative employs a portfolio of grants that are expected to help achieve targeted, large-scale outcomes in a specific time frame.

Andes Amazon Initiative (AAI) is the largest private donor for conservation in the Andes and Amazon Basin. Its goal is to maintain sufficient natural habitat to preserve climate function and biodiversity in the region. AAI is currently engaged in a refresh of its strategic plan for the coming five years, with an expected budget of approximately $176-180 million.

Outcome Statement:Unconstrained

Net loss of forest cover in the Basin is reduced to zero or evenreversed.

Climatic function of the biome is secured by ensuring that 60-80% of forest cover in each ecoregion is maintained in appropriate land uses.

Representative biodiversity at the ecoregional level is maintained by ensuring that at least 10% of each ecoregion is effectively managed as IUCN Category I-III protected areas.

Outcome Statements:Constrained 2010-2014

Achieve the unconstrained outcomes for priority landscapes (a subset of ecoregions) within the Basin, while at the same time addressing issues that will benefit conservation across the basin over the longer term.

Designing for Evaluation

Through design, we attempt to address the most common problems we encounter in conservation programs. These are problems with design, and subsequently create problems for evaluation of performance:

– Prioritization of resource allocation

– Necessary and sufficient interventions

– Meaningful measures of performanceConcrete outcomesInterim measures of progressProgress against baseline & counterfactualAttribution

Plan Structure

Understanding context

Plan Structure

Detailed assessment of priority ecoregions and development of strategies

Plan Structure

• Final selection of priority landscapes

• Theory of change

• Action plan

• Implementation

Plan Structure

• Ongoing revision of targets

• Monitoring and evaluation

• Revise strategies as needed

• Select new geographies based on progress

Target Setting

Maintain climatic function– 60-80% forest cover target (each ecoregion)

Maintain representative biodiversity– Default target is 10% of each ecoregion in IUCN Category I-

III Reserves (Convention on Biological Diversity Commitment)

Progress towardsTargets

12 Climate Target

Options for achieving targets differ drastically among ecoregions

Many Options

Progress Towards Climate Targets

Few Options

No Options (Without Restoration)

Deforestation risk varies across basin

Vulnerabilityto Deforestation

Prioritization

Top Ten Ecoregions

Limiting Factors

Measures presence/absence of factors that threaten conservation, but vary according to geography– Examples

Economic: Agro-industry expansion, loggingPublic Policy: IIRSA (roads, dams)

Identifies and measures criteria necessary and sufficient to achieve conservation– Example

Strategy to address logging exclusively via Forestry Certification may miss essential complementary issues such as enforcement of environmental laws for those not persuaded by market incentives

Provides common basis to measure progress towards longer term outcomes, such as reduced deforestation

Limiting Factors

Example of limiting factor scoring…

pDetection x pProsecution x Penalty > Benefits of illegal activities -- sufficient as deterrent and violations do not occur, enabling conservation

pDetection x pProsecution x Penalty > Benefits of illegal activities -- sufficient as deterrent and violations occur with low frequency, not limiting conservation

pDetection x pProsecution x Penalty < Benefits of illegal activities -- insufficient as deterrent and violations occur with moderate frequency, limiting conservation

pDetection x pProsecution x Penalty = 0 -- no deterrence on illegal behaviorviolations occur with high frequency

Enforcement

-Penalty

1=Enabling0=Not Limiting-1=Limiting-2=PreventsLimiting Factor

Limiting Factors Scores

Public Policy, Legislation,and Regulatory Framework Enforcement Institutional Capacity

EconomicBalance

Stakeholder Engagement& Support Conservation Funding

IUCN CATEGORIES I-III LIMITING FACTORS

Which Strategies are Needed?

EconomicBalance

SE Amazon

Local Strategies:

Planning

Implementation

Stakeholder Engagement

Stakeholder Support

Cost Analysis

Set up Costs

National Strategies:

Prosecution

Penalty

Global Strategies:

Economic incentives

Long-term funding

Which Strategies are Needed?

EconomicBalance

Public Policy, Legislation,and Regulatory

Framework Enforcement Institutional CapacityEconomicBalance

SE Amazon

Brazilian Amazon

What Strategies are Needed?

EconomicBalance

SE Amazon

Amazon Basin

Who FundsStrategies?

Donor mapping– Donor database(s)

Donor collaboration– Formal vs Informal

Current Grants/Loans Active in Basin at Present (Order of Magnitu

$500.00

$1,000.00

$1,500.00

$2,000.00

$2,500.00

$3,000.00

$3,500.00

$4,000.00

$4,500.00

Brazil Colombia Ecuador Peru Bolivia Guyana Suriname Venezuela

Current Grants/Loans Active in Basin - no Brazil (Order of Magn

$50.00

$100.00

$150.00

$200.00

$250.00

$300.00

$350.00

Colombia Ecuador Peru Bolivia Guyana Suriname Venezuela

Who Funds Strategies?

Donor mapping & collaboration– Addressed by others (World Bank & Gov’t of Norway)– Addressed by Moore & others– Unaddressed

EconomicBalance

Who Implements Strategies?

Donor mapping & collaboration– State Government– Federal Government– NGO 1… n

EconomicBalance

Theory of Change

For each priority geography, an explanation of:

– How selected strategies address all relevant limiting factors

– How strategies are funded

– Who implements strategies

Monitoring &Evaluation

Outcome Metrics– Net deforestation (target = 0%)– % forest cover (target = 60-80%)– % natural habitat in IUCN Cat I-III (target = 10%)

Interim Metrics– Change in limiting factors (target = TBD by region, nation, basin)

Metrics include 4 elements– Baseline (via land use analysis, LF analysis)– Counterfactual (via land use change models, LF analysis)– Current status (via land use analysis, LF analysis)– Attribution (via donor mapping and systematic collaboration)

Interim Metrics: Change in limiting factors

Public Policy,Legislation, and

Regulatory Framework Enforcement Institutional CapacityEconomicBalance

StakeholderEngagement & Support Conservation Funding

Baseline

(2009)-2

Counterfactual

(2014)

Actual

(2014)

Attribution:

Major Role

Partial Role

No Role

Outcome Metrics:

Forest cover maintained (all land categories)

Habitat conserved (IUCN Cat I-III)

Baseline

(2009)

Counterfactual

(2014)Land use change

modeling

Actual

(2014)

Attribution: Major RolePartial RoleNo Role

Concluding Remarks, Questions, Suggestions…

Design for Evaluation: Gordon & Betty Moore Foundation’s ... · Design for Evaluation: Gordon &...

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