Demographic Dividend:

Education and Occupations

Laveesh BhandariAparna Panwar

Indicus Analytics

Growing Population

• 2005 – 1,076 million• 2020 - 1,341 million• 2050 - 1,592 million

Age distribution

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

140,000,000

'0-4 '10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

 Working Age Population

20-60 Total Population %

2005 539,935 1,076,934 50.14

2020 744,941 1,341,031 55.552050 872,337 1,592,703 54.77

So what?

• Large Numbers in working age group

• Likely to remain till about 2050• Low but changing dependency

• But what about their educational backgrounds?

Some things well known

• Between 40-50% of those enrolled drop out of school before completing upper primary

• Quality of schooling extremely poor• Most who are ‘literate’ can barely read

and write their own name

• What is likely to be the ‘quality of the dividend’?

Educational Distribution (20-60 Age Group)

  0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Illite

rate &

< P

rimary

Primary

Midd

le

Secon

dary

Highe

r Sec

onda

ry

Gradu

ate &

Abo

ve

2005 2020

Would the dividend be realized?

• What will the hundreds of millions of poorly educated do?

• Not Agriculture given expected productivity improvements

• Not organized manufacturing• Not IT, not BPO, not R&D, not Financial

sector, not sales and marketing

• Are things really that bleak?

Occupations and Growth2 Dig NOC Description Millions 6 yr. Growth

22 Working Proprietors, Wholesale & Retail Trade 2.6 155%41 Manufacturers, Agents' 1.2 71%95 Bricklayers & Other Construction Workers 9.9 54%24 Working Proprietors, Directors & Managers 4.5 44%08 Nursing & Other Medical & Health Technicians 1.0 42%50 Hotel & Restaurant Keepers 1.5 41%98 Transport Equipment Operators 8.6 40%26 Working Proprietors, Directors & Managers, Other Serv ices 1.5 38%52 Cooks, Waiters, Bartenders & Related Workers 1.8 33%94 Production & Related Workers, n.e.c. 2.5 31%55 Launderers, Dry-Cleaners & Pressers 2.2 30%85 Electrical Fitters & Related Electrical & Electronic Workers 2.7 25%54 Building Caretakers, Sweepers, Cleaners & Realted 1.9 24%84 Machinary Fitters, Assemblers & Instrument Makers 3.7 24%99 Labourers, n.e.c. 11.3 23%30 Clerical & Other Superv isors 1.9 23%

What can we predict?

• High growth can create opportunities for all

• Better educational/skill attainment would open many more opportunities

• Numbers too large for the govt. to subsidize

• Yes there is a dividend coming• But it could have been much larger

Thank You