Post on 20-Mar-2017
The environment for policing and
law enforcement out to 2030:
what do experts think?
ASPI Strategic Policing and Law Enforcement Program
Dr David ConnerySenior Analyst
Clare MurphyResearcher
Mercedes PageResearch Intern
Anticipating 2015:
a view from 2002
Sources: Intergenerational Report 2002, Intergenerational Report 2015
Budget Paper No 1 (2015)
75
80
85
90
95
100
Male Female
Life expectancy Australia 2042/45
Prediction for 2042 in 2002
Prediciton for 2045 in 2015
10
15
20
25
Millions
Australian population
Predicted 2002
Estimated 2015
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
Percent of GDP
Fiscal balance
Preducted 2002
Actual 2015
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
$Tr
Australian GDP
Predicted 2002
Actual 2015
Hot topics for 2015 – as seen from
2000
• Internet
– Innovation
– E-commerce
• Science
– Biotechnology
– Replacement of fossil fuels
• US-China relations
• Knowledge economy
– Business intelligence
– Disaggregation of business units
• Social values
– How people respond to disaster,
climate change
– Changing employment patters
and attitudes to jobs
– Social stability
– Inflation and unemployment
• Globalisation
– World commodity prices, esp. oil
– China’s changing role
– Leadership in business
– Ethics and transparency
– Life-long learning
– Immigration and migration
– Fundamentalism
– Exchange rate behaviour
What was not empathised or perhaps missed?
• Smartphones and connectivity
• Individualism, especially in social relationships
• Mass casualty and lone actor terrorism
• Cyber-crime
Source: Global Business Network, Alternative Scenarios for 2015 (1999)
Scope
• Futures thinking and decision-making
• Four key trends
• So what?
How do you make decisions
when there is no hard evidence?
• Making policy is about influencing future behaviour
– Topic and tools might differ, but the object is the same
• Futures thinking and decision-making are entwined
– ‘Educating the intellect’
– Analysis of alternate paths
– Maintaining agility: change faster than the competition
• Futures studies and intelligence: related but slightly different
– Intelligence as information analysed to meet a need, or a process
– Tends to be focused on immediate concerns (but note ‘strategic
intelligence’), less speculative hand seeking to advise, and classified
– Futures studies are techniques that can help illuminate uncertainty
• Some analysis is better than a SWAG
Horizon scanning
“A deliberate or purposeful strategic planning activity where
emerging changes and developments are analysed to
identify events, trends and drivers (collectively, ‘factors‘) that
may shape an organisation‘s future operating environment
and so its policy, research and strategic agendas”
Source: D. Connery, ‘Horizon Scanning: Enhancing Strategic
Insight for National Security Policymaking’ Security Challenges (2013)
Looking to 2030
•How might our definition of crime change?
•How might criminal activity change?
• What opportunities might technologyprovide?
• What threats might technology create?
• How quick will new technology manifest?
• How will international society change?
• What calls might this change make upon Australian law
enforcement?
• What will the Australian people expect of police and law enforcement?
• What will our society look like?
AustraliaInternational
system
CrimeTechnology
Australia in 2030:
a different kind of place
• Australian economy grows at 2.8%
• Labour force as a proportion of population: 3 workers to one retiree (currently 5:1)
• Manufacturing continues to decline, services increase
• Return to surplus?
Slower growth, fiscal challenges, services
economy
• 29 million people
• 43% have one parent born overseas
• 18 million live in cities
More and more diverse urban
dwellers
• Population aged over 65 will be twice that of today.
• 85 y.o. = three time today
• 75% obese or big boned
• 50% more Bachelors degrees
Greyer, fatter, smarter
• Greater role for civil society as watchdogs, policy analysts
• More online government services
• Greater transparency – intentional or not
Interconnected polity
So what?Public expectations
Funding base
Recruiting base
Health and ageing
Australian Government, 2015 Intergenerational report
Grattan Institute, Game changers: economic reform priorities for Australia, 2012
Group of 8, Future demand for higher education in Australia, 2012
World Economic Forum, The future role of civil society, 2013
The international system in 2030:
bigger, busier, less equal concrete jungles
Inequality
Climate change
UrbanisationInstability
Rising Asia: bigger, richer,
near
So what?New and expanded
law enforcement challenges
Influence sources and routes
for transnational crime
Increased goods and service
traffic
UK Ministry of Defence, Global strategic trends 2045
Australian and Canadian governments, The future of Asia: forces of change and potential surprises
Australian Army, Future land warfare report 2014
Australian Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development, Transport security outlook to 2025
Clingendael, An uncertain world: strategic threats monitor 2013
Jort Hemmer, Fragile states strategic monitor
KPMG, Future state 2030
Technology in 2030:
Out tech’d, not outgunned
1. Rapid changes in biotech,
nanotech and robotics
2. Convergence, connectivity,
collaboration
3. More sense from data,
structured or not
4. Better, faster decisions as
artificial intelligence approaches
5. Enhanced human performance
So what?
Technology alone will not drive competitive advantage
New operating methods will become possible: but useable?
In-house technology development likely to be increasingly problematic
Serious & Organised Crime in 2030:
crime, done differently
Hiding crime in plain sight
Exploiting new and emerging
technology
Global links –transnational relationships
So what?
SOC is not going away
Early adopters
Measure-countermeasure
Speed, depth, reach
Changing conceptions of crime
Trust as a critical enabler
Europol, Exploring tomorrow’s organised crime, 2015
FATF, Virtual currencies: key definitions and potential AML/CFT risks, 2014
RAND, Visions of law enforcement technology 2024–34, 2015
Lots we haven’t covered, like…
• New energy technologies
• Additive manufacturing (wait – that’s coming)
• Sharing economy
• Synthetic biology
• Breakthroughs in cryptology
• Crypto currency
• Resource and heritage crime
• Corruption
CSIRO, Our future world
Defence Science and Technology Organisation, Forward 2035
EMC Corporation, The digital universe in 2020
IBIS World, Australia’s digital future to 2050
RAND, Visions of law enforcement technology 2024–34
UK Ministry of Defence, Global strategic trends 2045
UK Government, Emerging technologies: big data
Discontinuities
Concept development
DELAYED
NOTIFICATION
ORGANISED CRIME
So what?
• Shaping the debate about the future of law
enforcement
• Investment plans needed
• International cooperation
• Partnering with business, academia and
think tanks
Like what you see?Be part of our conversation.
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