Post on 19-Aug-2020
©"OECD/IEA"2014""
Dan"Dorner"Senior"Energy"Analyst,"IEA"Madrid,"28"January"2016"
©"OECD/IEA"2014""
Africa'Energy'Outlook'–'some'context'
! GDP'is'rising'–'rapidly'in'some'cases'–'but'a'large'share'of'a'fast>growing'popula@on's@ll'lives'in'extreme'poverty'
! Sub>Saharan'Africa'accounts'for'around'13%'of'global'popula@on,'but'only'4%'of'energy'use'
! Energy'is'vital'to'development'prospects'–'poor'electricity'infrastructure'is'a'key'impediment'to'growth'
! Large'energy'resource'base'has'been'exploited'only'in'part'for'oil,'gas'and'coal,'and'largely'untouched'in'the'case'of'renewables'
! Domes@c'energy'reforms'gaining'speed,'but'two>thirds'of'energy'investment'since'2000'went'to'develop'resources'for'export'
©"OECD/IEA"2014""
Rich'in'resources'
Major&oil&and&discoveries&in&sub1Saharan&Africa&in&recent&years;&&
&
Hydro'
Wind'Oil'
Oil'
Oil'
Oil'Gas'
Gas'
Oil'
Coal'
Gas'
Fossil'fuels'
Solar'
&
the®ion&has&vast&untapped&renewables&poten<al,¬ably&hydropower&and&solar&&
&
&
©"OECD/IEA"2014""
In&sub1Saharan&Africa,&630&million&people&–&two1thirds&of&the&popula<on&–&live&
without&electricity.&Only&a&handful&of&countries&have&electrifica<on&rates&above&50%&
&
Less"than"50% More"than"50%
Share&of&popula<on&with access&to&electricity:
Rich'in'resources,'but'poor'in'supply'
©"OECD/IEA"2014""
Back>up'generators'supplement'unreliable,'insufficient'grid>based'supply'
Electricity'demand'met'by'back>up'generators'in'sub>Saharan'Africa'by'sub>region,'2012'
Back1up&generators&consume&around&90&thousand&barrels&of&oil&per&day&
to&generate&electricity,&at&an&es<mated&cost&of&over&$5&billion&
2" 4" 6" 8" 10" 12"
Southern"
East"
Central"
Other"West"
Nigeria"
TWh"
Industry"
Services"
ResidenKal"
©"OECD/IEA"2014""
Energy'demand'by'sub>region'
Sub>Saharan'Africa'primary'energy'mix'by'sub>region,'2012'
Nigeria&and&South&Africa&are&sub1Saharan&Africa’s&largest&energy&demand¢res,&
accoun<ng&collec<vely&for&half&of&total&demand&
20%"
40%"
60%"
80%"
100%"
Nigeria" Other"West"
Central" East" Other"Southern"
South"Africa"
Other"renewables"Bioenergy"Hydro"Nuclear"Gas"Oil"Coal"
141"Mtoe" 56"Mtoe" 37"Mtoe" 112"Mtoe" 83"Mtoe" 141"Mtoe"
©"OECD/IEA"2014""
Biomass'remains'at'the'centre'of'the'sub>Saharan'energy'mix'
Total'primary'energy'demand'in'sub>Saharan'Africa'
Reliance&on&fuelwood&and&charcoal&remains&high,&even&as&incomes&grow;&&
650&million&people&s<ll&cook&with&biomass&in&an&inefficient,&hazardous&way&in&2040&
300" 400" 500"Mtoe"
100" 200"
Nuclear"
Gas"
Modern"renewables"
Coal"
Oil"
Biomass"
2012"
AddiKonal""demand"in"2040"
Mtoe"
©"OECD/IEA"2014""
Power'to'shape'the'future'
Installed'power'genera@on'capacity'by'fuel'in'sub>Saharan'Africa'
Renewables&account&for&almost&half&the&growth&in&overall&power&supply,&&
but&fossil&fuels&are&prominent&in&some&countries&
Coal"45%"
Gas,"14%"
Oil,"17%"
Nuclear,"2%"
Hydro"22%"
Other"renewables"0%"
2012'capacity:'90'GW"
2040'capacity:'380'GW"
Coal"22%"
Gas"25%"
Oil"7%"
Hydro"24%"
Solar"12%"
Nuclear"2%"
Bioenergy,"wind"geothermal"8%"
©"OECD/IEA"2014""
Different'paths'to'power''across'the'con@nent''
The&power&mix&by&sub1region&reflects&local&resource&endowments;&well1func<oning&
regional&power&pools&help&to&unlock&new&projects,&lower&costs&&&improve&reliability&
100"
200"
300"
400"
500"
600"
2000" 2020" 2040"
West"
TWh"
30"
60"
90"
120"
150"
2000" 2020" 2040"
Central"
TWh"
50"
100"
150"
200"
250"
300"
2000" 2020" 2040"
East"
TWh"
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear
Hydro Solar"PV
Other"renewables
"200"
"400"
"600"
"800"
1"000"
2000" 2020" 2040"
Southern"
TWh"
©"OECD/IEA"2014""
Important'role'for'renewables''beyond'the'grid'
Technology'mix'for'mini>grids'and'off'grids'in'sub>Saharan'Africa,'2040'
Renewables&–&led&by&solar&and&hydro&–&account&for&two1thirds&of&the&&
electricity&supplied&by&mini1grid&and&off1grid&systems&
35%"
47%"
12%"4%"2%"
Off">"grid:'12'TWh"
32%"
37%"
20%"
8%"3%"
Oil"
Solar"PV"
Hydro"
Wind"
Bioenergy"
Mini">"grid:'26'TWh"
©"OECD/IEA"2014""
The'most'cost>effec@ve'way'to'expand'electrifica@on'varies'
Op@mal'split'by'grid'type'in'Nigeria,'given'expected'expansion'of'transmission'lines''
In&Nigeria,&higher&popula<on&density&and&wider&grid&coverage&favour&on1grid&supply;&
where&grid&extensions&are¬&cost1effec<ve,&mini1grids&tend&to&be&preferred&
Source:"IEA"in"collaboraKon"with"the"KTH"Royal"InsKtute"of"Technology,"division"of"Energy"Systems"Analysis."
©"OECD/IEA"2014""
The'most'cost>effec@ve'way'to'expand'electrifica@on'varies'
Op@mal'split'by'grid'type'in'Ethiopia,'given'expected'expansion'of'transmission'lines'
The&overall&popula<on&density&of&Ethiopia&is&half&that&of&Nigeria&meaning&that&mini1&
and,&especially,&off1grid&solu<ons&play&a&much&more&prominent&role&
Source:"IEA"in"collaboraKon"with"the"KTH"Royal"InsKtute"of"Technology,"division"of"Energy"Systems"Analysis."
©"OECD/IEA"2014""
A'changing'balance'to'oil'produc@on'
Oil'produc@on'in'sub>Saharan'Africa'
The®ion&remains&a&major&global&supplier,&although&the&role&of&the&&
two&biggest&producers&(Nigeria&and&Angola)&ebbs&and&flows&
Other"
Angola"
Nigeria"
Produc@on:'
1"
2"
3"
4"
5"
6"
7"
2000" 2014" 2020" 2030" 2040"
mb/d"
©"OECD/IEA"2014""
A'new'global'gas'player'
Increase'in'gas'produc@on'in'selected'countries'&'regions,'2013>2040''
LNG&export&is&the&anchor&for&the&east&coast&gas&discoveries,&but&a&major&share&of&the&
increase&in&overall&gas&output&goes&to&domes<c&power&genera<on&and&industry&
50" 100" 150" 200" 250"
North"Africa"
Australia"
Russia"
Sub[Saharan"Africa"
United"States"
bcm"
Mozambique' Nigeria' Other'Angola'
Tanzania'
©"OECD/IEA"2014""
Investment'has'to'come'home'
Fuels"
Electricity"
For"export"
For$consump+on$within$sub1Saharan$Africa:$
In&a&reversal&of¤t&trends,&2&out&of&3&future&investment&dollars&produce&energy&
for&sub1Saharan&consumers,&but&this&is&s<ll¬&enough&to&meet&their&needs&in&full&
Average'annual'investment'in'sub>Saharan'energy'supply'
20"
40"
60"
80"
100"
120"
2000[2013" 2014[2040"
Billion
"dollars"(2
013)"
⅓'
⅔' ⅓'
⅔'
©"OECD/IEA"2014""
A'large'step'towards'universal''access,'but's@ll'a'long'way'to'go'
Access'to'electricity'in'sub>Saharan'Africa'
2012" 2020" 2025" 2030" 2035" 2040"
"300"
"600"
"900"
1"200"
1"500"
1"800"Million"
Popula@on'with'electricity'access'
Popula@on'without'electricity'access'
Nearly&one&billion&people&gain&access&to&electricity,&but&over&500&million&remain&
without&power&in&2040&–&primarily&in&rural&communi<es&
©"OECD/IEA"2014""
Biomass'con@nues'to'dominate'energy'demand'for'cooking'
Primary'fuel/technology'used'by'household'for'cooking'in'sub>Saharan'Africa'in'the'New'Policies'Scenario'
In&urban&areas,&access&to&clean&cooking&facili<es&is&mainly&by&fuel&switching,&&
while&in&rural&areas&it&is&mainly&via&improved&biomass&cookstoves&
Urban"Electricity"
LPG,"Gas"
Kerosene"
TradiKonal"stoves"
Improved"cookstoves"
Other"renewables"
20%" 40%" 60%" 80%"100%"
Rural"
West"
Central"
East"
Southern"2012"2040"
2012"2040"
2012"2040"
2012"2040"
20%" 40%" 60%" 80%"100%"
©"OECD/IEA"2014""
How'could'energy'make'the'21st'century''an'African'century?'
! Energy'could'do'more'to'act'as'an'engine'of'inclusive'economic'and'social'development'
! An'African'Century'Case'assesses'the'impact'of'faster'movement'in'three'key'areas:'
" An&upgraded&power§or;$reducing$power$outages$by$half$and$achieving$universal$access$in$urban$areas$
" Deeper®ional&co1opera<on;$expanding$markets$and$unlocking$a$greater$share$of$the$con+nent’s$hydropower$poten+al$
" Be`er&management&of&resources&and&revenues;$more$efficiency$and$transparency$in$financing$essen+al$infrastructure$
©"OECD/IEA"2014""
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Million"pe
ople
Without"access"to"electricity"
Energy'can'build'a'path'to'prosperity'
Outcomes'in'the'African'Century'Case,'2040'
By&increasing&the&coverage&and&reliability&of&energy&supply,&the&African&Century&Case&
unlocks&an&extra&decade’s&worth&of&growth&in&per1capita&incomes&by&2040&
Main"Scenario"
African"Century"Case"
"1"
"2"
"3"
"4"
"5"
Thou
sand
"dollars"(2
013,"M
ER)"
GDP"per"capita"
Gigaw
acs"
Renewables[based""power"generaKon"capacity"
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
©"OECD/IEA"2014""
Conclusions'
! Energy'is'a'cornerstone'of'sub>Saharan'strategies'for'poverty'reduc@on'and'economic'growth'
! Improvements'in'sector'governance'are'needed'to'bring'in'new'energy'investors'and'kick>start'development'
! The'shortest'route'to'power'is'a'combina@on'of'regional'and'na@onal'level'grid'projects,'and'mini>off'grid'projects'
! Renewables'are'central'to'the'regions'energy'outlook,'while'more'efficient'and'sustainable'use'of'biomass'will'create'a'healthier'domes@c'energy'balance'
! Concerted'ac@on'to'improve'the'func@oning'of'the'energy'sector'is'essen@al'if'the'21st'century'is'to'become'an'African'century'
©"OECD/IEA"2014""
Available'to'download'for'free'at'www.worldenergyoutlook.org'