GLOBAL SEA LEVEL RISE AND THE CONSEQUENCES FOR THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT

5 JUNE 2008

PROFESSORS MARTIN FISCHER AND BEN SCHWEGLERNATHAN CHASE, VIVIEN CHUA, DAVID NEWELL

Dammed if You Do,Damned if You Don’t

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Inundated areas resulting from 2m SLR

http://flood.firetree.net/

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Introduction

How we got here…

“With a little research and advice from the professors, putting together a basic dike design was fairly straightforward… after that, I was hooked! Countless hours later, the design process continues…” – Nathan Chase

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Some striking results…

David Newell

Gravel shortages 50+ years for China 65+ years for India

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Some striking results…

Vivien Chua

The first step in reliable engineering design is modeling - we are closer to creating a better world!

Background and Need6

Coastal Development & Ports

Over half of world’s population lives within 200km of the coast (UN, 2001)1

35% coastal pop. growth projected between 1995-2025 (Columbia U.)2

7.187 billion metric tons of seaborne trade in 2006 (AAPA)3

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Sea Level Rise – Fact or Fiction?

Model does not include “future dynamical changes in ice flow”

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Hurricane Katrina Hurricane Andrew

Natural Disasters9

Cyclone Nargis10

Project Overview11

Project Overview

Analyze coastal protection design alternatives Quantify current/projected capacity of design &

construction industry Model the response using 2D/3D/4D tools and

disseminate information Compare capacity to what is needed

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Limited understanding of DCI capacity

No official statistics for US Natural disasters can cause significant impact (e.g.,

Hurricane Katrina/Rita) Difficulty in compiling global data Resources are allocated on a regional or national basis

e.g. cranes, dredges, steel

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How to Protect Ports

Define the protection strategy and scope e.g. dikes, levees, landfill for port surface

Develop a “minimum reasonable design” for the scope Obtain cost data reflective of regional conditions Compare the design and scope to global data on

materials, weather, construction goods and services, etc.

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Why ports?

Fixed infrastructure that cannot be relocated easily High economic value, easy to measure Clear baseline of what will be protected Data availability Simplifying assumption (difficulties with

residential/commercial developments, undeveloped areas, etc.)

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Port Selection16

1 Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (TEU) is one 20-ft container

(one 40-ft container = 2 TEUs)

Methodology for Case Studies

Goal: evaluate and strengthen project by performing detailed case studies in different regions

Overall procedure: Site identification Conceptual design alternatives evaluation Schematic design development Incorporation of results in overall project

Tools have been developed to simplify the data collection and design element

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Current Status18

Current Status

Port Characteristics

World’s most important 177 ports, integrated into Google Earth

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Current Status

GIS model “automatically” determines:

- Protection length

- Average protection height

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Current Status

Cost and availability/capacity data (US, Asia, Europe) RS Means UN Countrywatch Etc.

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Current Status

Coastal Protection Design tool Offshore dike, navigation lock, pump station, maintenance

dredging

Dike

Lock

Pump

PortOpen OceanDredge

River flooding

Silt

Wave overtopping, scour

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Long Beach Harbor a Case Study

“Manual” design10.5 miles long25m high

- Cost: $1693 million

-Time to construct:21.1 years

“Model” design10 miles long9m high

- Cost: $712 million

- Time to construct:9.7 years

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1 meter sea level rise predicted by 2100!!!25

Sea level record at Golden Gate

Areas at risk in San Francisco Bay

• GIS modeling

• 2D hydrodynamic modeling

1 meter sea level risehttp://flood.firetree.net

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Sacramento-San Joaquin delta

Golden Gate channel

Calibration at NOAA station Golden Gate (9414290)

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What if we do nothing?

• 2D hydrodynamic modeling

Flooding risks

Changes to circulation patterns

Deterioration of water quality

Disappearing habitats/ecosystems

Modifications to sediment distributions

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Erosion of salt ponds & submerging tidal marshes

Average depth of tidal marshes and salt ponds = 0.1 m

1 m sea level rise

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Action plan: Partial intrusion barrage at Golden Gate

Regulate amount of sea water entering and leaving the bay

Sea water entering bay as flood tide

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A tidal power barrage?

Estimate of tidal power at Golden Gate

QghP where ρ = density of sea water = 1000 kg/m3, Q = flow rate, g = acceleration due to gravity = 9.81 m2/s, h = tidal amplitude

In a neap-spring cycle,

Max Q = 5000 m3/s

Max h = 2 m

Max P = 1x108W

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Results

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Measuring our Results35

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Google Earth Demonstration

Netherlands

Stanford/S.F. Bay

San Pedro Bay (L.A.)

Port Characteristics

Port Polygons

4D Model

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Future Directions44

Collaborations, Raising Awareness

New collaborations in Netherlands, India, etc. Stanford Engineering & Public Policy Framework

Project: Climate Change and its Impact on the Built Environment

Write journal articles Make GoogleEarth project data available

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Fall 2008 Undergrad/Grad Course

3 unit CEE course, but need students in economics, public policy, computer science

Focus: Principles & practices for designing a marine construction project, as applied to the Stanford Engineering Framework project Week 1: Introduction, project background, reading on case studies (Netherlands,

Japan, Hurricane Katrina) Week 2: Marine Construction industry: equipment, materials, labor (guest lecturer

from industry) Week 3: Site selection and characterization (guest lecture on coastal development) Week 4-6: Conceptual design (guest lecture) Week 7-9: Schematic design (guest lecture on hydrologic modeling) Week 10: Writing up and presenting results (in class presentations, final reports)

Other elements: intensive collaboration session with students from Delft, Madras/Chennai

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Acknowledgements

Fred Raichlen, California Institute of Technology Kyle Johnson, Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Bob Bittner, Ben C. Gerwick Inc. Andrew Peterman, Walt Disney Imagineering Chris Holm, Walt Disney Co. Austin Becker, Rhode Island Sea Grant Christian Brockmann, Bremen University of Applied

Sciences Prior Stanford students: Mike Dvorak, Lakshmi Alagappan,

Evridiki Fekka, Elisa Zhang

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Questions?

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