Cynefin, Knowledge Management and

Research

Simon Frenchsimon.french@warwick.ac.uk

2

Research projects differ• Some seek to explore issues

– field studies vs laboratory studies

• Some seek to confirm or disprove hypotheses– field studies vs laboratory studies

• Some seek to critically evaluate an area• Some seek to solve a problem and

implement a solution• Some design and implement new systems• Some seek to develop new theory or

algorithms

(Social)Sciences

Engineering & mathematics

Cynefin: a Welsh habitat

Cause and effect can be determined with

sufficient data

Knowable The realm of

Scientific Inquiry

Complex The realm of Social Systems

Cause and effect may be determined after the event

Chaotic Cause and effect not discernable

Known The realm of Scientific

Knowledge Cause and effect understood

and predicable

D. Snowden (2002). "Complex acts of knowing - paradox and descriptive self-awareness." Journal of Knowledge Management 6 pp. 100-11.

Cynefin:• physical environment• cultural environment• social environment• historical environment• …..

Cynefin: a Welsh habitat

Cause and effect can be determined with

sufficient data

K nowable The realm of

Scientific Inquiry

Complex The realm of Social Systems

Cause and effect may be determined after the event

Chaotic Cause and effect not discernable

K nown The realm of Scientific

Knowledge Cause and effect understood

and predicable

D. Snowden (2002). "Complex acts of knowing - paradox and descriptive self-awareness." Journal of Knowledge Management 6 pp. 100-11.

Cynefin:• physical environment• cultural environment• social environment• historical environment• …..

Cynefin: a Welsh habitat

Cause and effect can be determined with

sufficient data

Knowable The realm of

Scientific Inquiry

Complex The realm of Social Systems

Cause and effect may be determined after the event

Chaotic Cause and effect not discernable

Known The realm of Scientific

Knowledge Cause and effect understood

and predicable

D. Snowden (2002). "Complex acts of knowing - paradox and descriptive self-awareness." Journal of Knowledge Management 6 pp. 100-11.

Cynefin:• physical environment• cultural environment• social environment• historical environment• …..

Cynefin: a Welsh habitat

Cause and effect can be determined with

sufficient data

Knowable The realm of

Scientific Inquiry

Complex The realm of Social Systems

Cause and effect may be determined after the event

Chaotic Cause and effect not discernable

Known The realm of Scientific

Knowledge Cause and effect understood

and predicable

D. Snowden (2002). "Complex acts of knowing - paradox and descriptive self-awareness." Journal of Knowledge Management 6 pp. 100-11.

Cynefin:• physical environment• cultural environment• social environment• historical environment• …..

Cynefin: a Welsh habitat

Cause and effect can be determined with

sufficient data

Knowable The realm of

Scientific Inquiry

Complex The realm of Social Systems

Cause and effect may be determined after the event

Chaotic Cause and effect not discernable

Known The realm of Scientific

Knowledge Cause and effect understood

and predicable

D. Snowden (2002). "Complex acts of knowing - paradox and descriptive self-awareness." Journal of Knowledge Management 6 pp. 100-11.

Cynefin:• physical environment• cultural environment• social environment• historical environment• …..

Cynefin: a Welsh habitat

Cause and effect can be determined with

sufficient data

Knowable The realm of

Scientific Inquiry

Complex The realm of Social Systems

Cause and effect may be determined after the event

Chaotic Cause and effect not discernable

Known The realm of Scientific

Knowledge Cause and effect understood

and predicable

D. Snowden (2002). "Complex acts of knowing - paradox and descriptive self-awareness." Journal of Knowledge Management 6 pp. 100-11.

Cynefin:• physical environment• cultural environment• social environment• historical environment• …..

K nowable The realm of

Scientific Inquiry

Complex The realm of Social Systems

Chaotic

K nown The realm of Scientific

Knowledge

A conventional view of emergency management

K nowable The realm of

Scientific Inquiry

Complex The realm of Social Systems

Chaotic

K nown The realm of Scientific

Knowledge

A conventional view of emergency management

What can we learn from the past?

K nowable The realm of

Scientific Inquiry

Complex The realm of Social Systems

Chaotic

K nown The realm of Scientific

Knowledge

Chernobyl

K nowable The realm of

Scientific Inquiry

Complex The realm of Social Systems

Chaotic

K nown The realm of Scientific

Knowledge

Three Mile Island

K nowable The realm of

Scientific Inquiry

Complex The realm of Social Systems

Chaotic

K nown The realm of Scientific

Knowledge

More generally

ResponseRecovery

Threat

Knowledge Management and Nonaka’s SECI

tacit knowledge

explicit knowledge

Socialisation

Internalisation

Combination

Externalisation

Cynefin and Knowledge Management

Cause and effect can be determined with

sufficient data

K nowable The realm of

Scientific Inquiry

Complex The realm of Social Systems

Cause and effect may be determined after the event

Chaotic Cause and effect not discernable

K nown The realm of Scientific

Knowledge Cause and effect understood

and predicable

Tacit KnowledgeCollaboration tools

Explicit KnowledgeData/Information

Management

So

cial

isat

ion

Co

mb

inat

ion

Applications of Cynefin• Emergency Management• Categorisation of DSS and OR/DA

techniques• Human Reliability Analysis• High Reliability Organisations• Knowledge Management• Sensemaking• Research Methodology

Cynefin: learning, repeatability

Cause and effect can be determined with

sufficient data

K nowable The realm of

Scientific Inquiry

Complex The realm of Social Systems

Cause and effect may be determined after the event

Chaotic Cause and effect not discernable

K nown The realm of Scientific

Knowledge Cause and effect understood

and predicable Repeatability and increasing familiarity

Cause and effect can be determined with

sufficient data

K nowable The realm of

Scientific Inquiry

Complex The realm of Social Systems

Cause and effect may be determined after the event

Chaotic Cause and effect not discernable

K nown The realm of Scientific

Knowledge Cause and effect understood

and predicable

Cynefin and data collection

Exper

imen

ts

and

trials

Case

studie

s,

inter

views,

and

surv

eys

Cause and effect can be determined with

sufficient data

K nowable The realm of

Scientific Inquiry

Complex The realm of Social Systems

Cause and effect may be determined after the event

Chaotic Cause and effect not discernable

K nown The realm of Scientific

Knowledge Cause and effect understood

and predicable

Cynefin and statistics

Repea

table

even

ts

Uniqueevents

Events?

Estim

ation

and

conf

irmat

ory

analy

sis

explo

rato

ry

analy

ses

So ...

... why do we see so many articles in social science and management journals dealing with issues that are clearly in the complex space but using confirmatory methods:

– Analysis of variance/covariance– Structural equation modelling– Precise p-values– ...

Cause and effect can be determined with

sufficient data

K nowable The realm of

Scientific Inquiry

Complex The realm of Social Systems

Cause and effect may be determined after the event

Chaotic Cause and effect not discernable

K nown The realm of Scientific

Knowledge Cause and effect understood

and predicable

Cynefin and Values

Repea

table

even

ts

Uniqueevents

Events?

Values

/pre

fere

nces

unde

rsto

od &

rehe

arse

d

Values

/pre

fere

nces

not f

ully u

nder

stood

Thank you

Complexity vs Complicated

• Confusingly complexity science does not relate primarily to the complex space!

• It is about computationally intensive models: i.e. complicated modelsModels understanding cause and effect

• So complexity science applies to the knowable space much more than the complex space.

K nowable The realm of

Scientific Inquiry

Complex The realm of Social Systems

Chaotic

K nown The realm of Scientific

Knowledge

Human Reliability Modelling

Mos

t HR

A

met

hods

focu

s on

sim

ple

task

s

Hum

an b

ehav

iour

cont

ribut

ing

to

maj

or s

yste

m fa

ilure

aris

es in

com

plex

circ

umst

ance

s

K nowable The realm of

Scientific Inquiry

Complex The realm of Social Systems

Chaotic

K nown The realm of Scientific

Knowledge

High reliability organisations

Empi

rical

bas

is

e.g.

airc

raft

carri

er

oper

atio

ns

Pres

crip

tion:

how

to re

spon

d to

unfo

rese

en is

sues

Do preferences exist?

• DeFinetti famously said – “Probabilities do not exist”

• Do preferences exist?• or better

– When do preferences come into existence?

Cynefin and decision making

categorise and respond

Sense, analyseandrespond

probe,sense,respond

actsenserespond

Cause and effect can be determined with

sufficient data

K nowable The realm of

Scientific Inquiry

Complex The realm of Social Systems

Cause and effect may be determined after the event

Chaotic Cause and effect not discernable

K nown The realm of Scientific

Knowledge Cause and effect understood

and predicable

Chaotic

Level 0: Level 1: Level 2: Level 3:

exploration, trial and error, building hypotheses.

}{ Known

Level 0: database systems Level 1: forecasting Level 2: simulation Level 3: AI, e.g. expert systems,

neural nets

Knowable

Level 0: databases, MIS Level 1: statistical inference,

forecasting Level 2: OR models e.g. LP

simulation Level 3: decision trees,

influence diagrams

Complex

Level 0: soft OR, PSM, EDA, EIS, data-mining

Level 1: expert judgement Level 2: scenario planning Level 3: simpler MCDM models,

simpler decision trees, influence diagrams

Data and model based systems (cf. combination cycle of SECI) Collaboration

tools, GDSS, decision conferencing, etc. (cf. socialisation cycle of SECI)

Level 0: Acquisition, checking and presentation of data, directly or with minimal analysis, to DMs

Level 1: Analysis and forecasting of the current and future environment.

Level 2: Simulation and analysis of the consequences of potential strategies; determination of their feasibility and quantification of their benefits and disadvantages.

Level 3: Evaluation and ranking of alternative strategies in the face of uncertainty by balancing their respective benefits and disadvantages.