The Day Analog Died.

Brian Bridges

CLRN.org

I KNOW HOW MURDOCH GOT INTO TROUBLE.

Let’s play, “Guess your password.”

10 Most Common Passwords.

1998

10 Most Common Passwords.

1212

10 Most Common Passwords.

2222

10 Most Common Passwords.

0852

10 Most Common Passwords.

5683

10 Most Common Passwords.

5555

10 Most Common Passwords.

1111

10 Most Common Passwords.

2580

10 Most Common Passwords.

0000

10 Most Common Passwords.

1234

Disrupting Class: How Disruptive Innovation Will Change the Way the World Learns

Clayton Christensen and Michael Horn

Disruptive Innovation Theory

• Customers’ needs tend to be stable• Companies improve their products• Most innovations improve products for current customers

• Some sustaining innovations represent dramatic breakthroughs

Sustaining the Camera

Disruptive Innovations…

• NOT a breakthrough improvement

• Existing customers can not utilize it• And are not attracted to it

• Benefit “non consumers”

The Disruptive Cycle

• Competing for non-consumers• Technology improves / cost declines

• Compete for original customers

Digital Cameras

• When was the digital camera invented?

The Camera Disruption

• First digital camera by Kodak (1975)• .01 megapixels

The Camera Disruption

• First digital camera by Kodak (1975)• .01 megapixels

• Kodak DCS 100 (1991)• 1 Megapixel for $13K

• Film still thrived

1999: 2MB Camera

NY Times: Christmas, 2001

• “The digital camera market just exploded this year.”

• And Kodak stock began a long slide down

Change is a Process

Digital Books

• When was the first digital book created?

• 1971• Project Guttenberg

The First e-book

• When, in the course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another,

The First e-reader

E-book Timeline

Project Gutenberg

• www.gutenberg.org• > 33K free e-books• EPUB format (among others)• July 2010: Amazon.com reports e-book

sales have surpassed printed books.

Change is a Process

Textbook Deathwatch:

The Digital Textbook Revolution

Virginia

• Adopted CK-12 Physics book to supplement HS Physics book

Texas: H.B. 4294

• Allows state to adopt electronic textbooks

• Textbook funds may be used to purchase technological equipment necessary to support electronic textbooks

Texas H.B 4294

• eTextbook publishers may submit updated content for review

• Districts/schools may select a subscription-based electronic textbook

TexasH.B. 2488

• Authorizes colleges or the state to develop open source textbooks for use in classrooms

California Legislation

• AB 1398, relating to the use of textbook funds

• Redefines “technology-based materials” to include electronic equipment required to use them

California Legislation

• SB 247 relating to high school textbook purchases

• Textbook funds may be used to purchase electronic versions

• Districts must ensure all students have access at home & school

California Digital Textbook Initiative

• Phases 1 & 2: Free or Open Source• Phase 3: Online & Interactive• High School • Math, Science, & History-Social

Science

Phase 1 page

FDTI Results

THREE DIRECTIONS FOR DIGITAL TEXTBOOKS

Flat & Linear Digital Books

Comparing eReader Models

• Amazon Kindle Series• B&N Nook• Apple iPad

Amazon Kindle

• Introduced November 2007• Kindle 2, Feb 2009, $259• Current Price: $114/$139• Format: AZW (proprietary)

B&N Nook

• Introduced 2009 @ $259• Current Price: $139• Formats: ePub, PDF

Apple iPad

• Introduced 2010 @ $499• Format: DRM-enabled ePub

Online, Interactive

RENTING TEXTBOOKS

CourseSmart

CourseSmart

• Macroeconomics• List Price: $210• Amazon: $110• Kindle: $88• CourseSmart: $58

Rent Textbooks?

Never!!!

REALLY? YOU’VE BEEN HERE BEFORE

Discovery StreamingLearn 360Safari/Montage

Oregon & Hawaii Just Did

• Discover Education Science for K-8

• Online, subscription-based• Textbook, virtual labs, simulations, video clips, & assessments

Macmillan: DynamicBooks

• Digital Textbook• Downloadable or readable online

• Professors have full edit rights • Embed video, multimedia, & assessments• Receive royalties

• Priced at 40% of retail

Ipad-Centric

HMH FUSE Algebra I

• Interactive digital textbook• Direct instruction, • Support, • assessment & intervention

• 400 students / four district pilot

Digital Textbooks: Next Stop?

Electronic textbook = textbook - book

Electronic Textbook

• Electronic Textbook = (Textbook – book) + streamed lecture clips + streaming video clips + interactive apps + multimeda + assessment + “live” links

Benefit of Electronic/Interactive Resources

• Easily updated• Student centric• Address a variety of learning

modalities

Digital Textbook Growth

Online Course Revolution

Just as digital textbooks grew first in colleges, online course growth has preceded growth in K-12.

Online Learning

• When were online courses invented?

Online Correspondence

• 1728• Boston Gazette Ad• Teacher seeking students with lessons mailed weekly

A Long Evolution

• Correspondence Courses• Distance Learning (satellite) courses• Instructional Learning Systems • 1999: Florida Virtual School

Online Course Growth

• Allan & Seaman/Sloan Consortium

• Class Differences: Online Education in the United States, 2010

Students Learning Online

• 2002: 1.6 million students • 9.6% of enrollment

• 2005: 3.2 million students• 18% of enrollment

• 2009: 5.6 million students• 29% of enrollment

• Online learning increases by 20% each year

You see the train coming?

Comparing Learning Outcomes

• 75% believe that online courses are as good or better than face-to-face instruction.

• 60% of academic leaders believe that there is increasing competition for online students in higher education.

Survey of Online Learning Preparedness, 2010

Education Week/Blackboard

Survey Demographics

• August 2010• 9400 responses, across all district sizes, and states• 18% from Superintendents and Asst.

Superintendents• 12% from Directors of Curriculum or

Instruction

Students are NOT able to take all the courses they want.

“lack of available staff”

Students need personalized pacingStudents need more learning time outside school

Students need additional or alternative credit recovery opportunities

Your district meets students online learning needs

Denial

Your districts wants to deliver courses virtually

Only non-consumers like the menu at the Disruptive Innovation restaurant

Project Tomorrow

Why are Students choosing online courses?

Why are Students Choosing Online Courses?

• Earn college credit• Work at my own pace• Class not offered at my school• Complete HS requirements• Better fits my schedule

Online Course Non-Consumers• Orphan Courses

• AP anything / World languages

• Independent Study• Credit Recovery• College Credit• Summer School• Home School

DISRUPTING CLASS @ ONLINE COURSES

2013: Tipping point2019: 50% of all

The US Market for Self-paced eLearning Products and Services: 2010-2015 Forecast and Analysis

Ambient Insight

Summary posted at T.H.E. Journal

Product Substitution

• When consumers begin buying the disruption instead of the original product.

2010-2015 Growth

How do you know if it’s any good?

Self- Reviewing Resources

Just like you do now for high school textbooks.

CCSESA TTSC Survey

Online Credit Recovery Programs

August 2010

Describe the Selection Process

• Vendor demonstrations• Open bid to vendors• Cost

CLRN Online Course Reviews

• CLRN reviews HS ELA & Math courses

• Common Core and the original recipe standards.

• National standards for quality online courses

Individual Course Review

Who are the Players?

• From Keeping Pace 2010

Multi-District Full-Time Online Schools

• Charter or District Run• Offering Full Time Courses• State-wide Reach

• California Virtual Academy• Flex Academies• Connections Academy

Single District Programs

• Run by a Single District• Full Time or Supplemental• Offering Courses only to District Students

Commercial Players

• Florida Virtual School / Pearson• K12.com

• Aventa, Kaplan, A+, …• Connections Academy/Pearson• Advanced Academics• Plato• Apex• Odysseyware• And on and on

Florida Virtual School

• Founded 1997• Internet-based public high school• FLVS gets the ADA

• 100 courses available to all students in Florida

• Licensed by Pearson in the other 49

FLVS Growth Data

K12.com Courses

• Math• English• History• Science• World Languages• Electives

K.12 Math Courses

• Math Foundations

• Algebra I & II• Geometry• Pre-Calculus/Trig• AP Calculus• AP Statistics

• Independent Study• $30/month

• Teacher-supported• $375/semester

California Virtual Academy

• Virtual charter school• 10, district sponsored charter schools around CA.

• Curriculum provided by K12.com

California’s Virtual Academies

• >50 CA Virtual Schools• 2010/11 enrollment: 20,000 students

• $120,000,000 ADA lost

Will Online Courses Put K-12 Schools Out of Business?

• Stock Price• January 1999 – January 2011

The Kodak Slide

1999: $63/share

1/2002: iPhoto Released

1/2011: $5.50/Share

92% decrease over 12 yearsThis could be the trend line for your ADA the next 12 years.

Established vs. Disruptive

• Digital cameras destroyed Polaroid, Fuji, and nearly Kodak.

• Charter school competition.• Online Schools- State-led Virtual

Schools w/o boundaries.

Disruptive in Florida

7K Students / No Teacher

• 54 schools & 7,000 students• Virtual Classrooms/e-learning labs

• 40 students. One class “facilitator.”

• Curriculum from Florida Virtual School

Play to your strengths

• But prepare for the future.• What do you offer that online

schools/courses can’t?• Non-consumer students at your

school• Offer online courses that meet your

students’ needs.

THE RISE OF K-12 BLENDED LEARNING

January 2011Michael Horn & Heather Staker

Blended Learning

• Only 10% of students will join virtual schools.

• Blended learning (blended/hybrid) will dominate

• Six probable models

Six Blended Models

• 1. Face-to Face Driver• Face-to-face teachers deliver most of

the courses.• Teacher utilizes online learning on a

case-by-case basis to supplement or remediate.

• 2. Rotation• Students rotate on a fixed schedule

between online learning and face-to-face.

Six Blended Models

• 3. Flex• Online platform delivers most of the

curriculum.• Teachers provide on-site support as-

needed.

• 4. Online Lab• Online platform delivers the entire

course.• Paraprofessionals supervise.

Six Blended Models

• 5. Self-Blend• Students choose to take one or more

courses online to supplement the school’s catalog.

• 6. Online Driver• An online platform and remote teacher

delivers all the curricula.• Students work remotely.

The Rise of K-12 Blended Learning

Online learning has the potential to be a disruptive force that will transform … America’s schools into a new model that is student-centric, highly personalized for each learner, and more productive…

Michael Horn

Independence Days

• 1743• 1971• 1975

10 Reasons Why Students Prefer Learning Online

Virtual School Symposium Panel

10 Reasons

1. I can sleep in.2. I can pursue my passions.3. I can focus on my work

without distractions from my classmates.

4. I can move at my own pace.5. I don’t have to compete to

share my thoughts and ideas.

10 Reasons

6. I can take more interesting classes.

7. I can learn with a schedule that meets my needs.

8. I can learn despite health issues that might get in a way of a traditional class setting.

9. I can easily communicate with my teacher when I need to.

10.I can easily communicate with my classmates whenever I want.

Links and Contact

http://brianbridges.org

The Day Analog Died.

Brian Bridges

CLRN.org