Post on 22-Dec-2015
Curtin University Sustainability Policy (CUSP) Institute
PB-CUSP Alliancewww.sustainability.curtin.edu.au
Electric Vehicles and their Renewable Connection
How Australia Can Take Part in the Green Revolution
Dr Andrew Simpson, ASDI Conversation Series – 10 June 2009
Electric cars - Now! http://www.sahkoautot.fi/eng
Outline
• Background
• Short history of transport and energy systems
• A vision for plug-in electric-drive vehicles (EVs) in a new paradigm of sustainable communities
• Global enabling factors:– Lithium-ion batteries– Mass-market EVs– Smart grids– Renewable energy– Green stimulus packages
• Barriers and Opportunities for Australia
• How is CUSP pursuing this vision?
Andrew Background
20th Century:Age of the combustion engine
21st Century:Age of the electric vehicle
Lower population densities, large travel distances.Higher population densities, shrinking cities, falling
VKT, smart growth.
Larger vehicles with high performance and long endurance.
Smaller, pedestrian-friendly vehicles.
Abundant, indigenous petroleum. Peak oil and price volatility. Geo-political conflict.
Exhaust emissions soaked up by atmosphere.Car tailpipes less-smelly than horses.
Urban smog and chronic health problems.
Global warming hadn’t been invented yet Climate change mitigation and adaptation.
Nationalised electric grids, centralized and subsidized
Privatised electric grids, traded on open markets.
Electricity provided on-demand Extreme peak demand growth, T&D bottlenecks.
“Dirty” electricity – emissions soaked up by atmosphere
Mandatory targets for renewable energy
A vision for EVs in sustainable communities
Plug-in EVs
Transit-orienteddevelopment
Building efficiency and zero-waste
Onsite water and renewable energy
Smart grid
Enabling Factor: Travel Patterns
Cumulative Distribution of Daily Driving Distances in Australia
Sydney – 87% drive less than 100km
Adelaide – 98% drive less than 100km
Enabling Factor: Travel Patterns
US VMT plateau in 2006, reducing since 2008
Enabling Factor: Travel Patterns
0%
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100%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Uti
lity
Fact
or
Distance (miles)
Plug-In Vehicle Utility Factor - 2001 vs 1995
2001 NHTS
1995 NPTS
Plug-in vehicle utility is increasing as typical driving distances reduce.
Enabling Technology: Li-Ion BatteriesCARB expert panel (2007): “High energy Li-Ion technology has good
potential to meet all performance requirements of EVs with batteries of modest weight…cell and battery technology designed for these applications are likely to also meet cycle life goals.”
NB: Not all Li-Ion batteries are created equal.
Li-Ion Battery Charging and SafetyCharging• Li-ion battery charging rates depend
on chemistry and anode/cathode design
• Most batteries can charge in <60min, some batteries can charge in <10min.
• Charging supply is usually the bottleneck
Safety• Li-ion battery safety also depends on
chemistry and anode/cathode design• The preferred automotive chemistry
(Li-ion nanophosphate) is inherently safer and cannot go into thermal runaway.
• Monitoring/management is critical for some other Li-Ion chemistries
Enabling Factor: Mass-produced EVs
NB: Established car companies don’t always get it right.
Chevy Volt PHEV – 60km Toyota FT-EV – 80km Mitsubishi MiEV – 125km
Ford Focus EV – 160kmMini EV – 240kmMercedes BlueZERO EV – 200km
Enabling Factor: New EV Companies
TH!NK City EV – 180km Aptera 2e EV – 160km Tesla Roadster EV – 400km
BYD E6 EV – 300km Fisker Karma PHEV – 80km Reva EV – 160km
NB: There are tremendous barriers to entry for new car companies
EV/PHEV Production Ramp
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200,000
300,000
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To-date 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Ann
ual P
rodu
ction
Industry Plans for Global Production of EVs and PHEVs
EVs
PHEVs
Total
Production >600,000 units by 2012
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Price (AUD)
Forecast Pricing Distribution for Global Production EVs/HEVs(model launches during 2009-2012)
EV/PHEV Market Prices
Median price $42,000
EVs’ Lower Cost of Motoring
NB: Innovative business models can amortize EVs’ higher upfront cost.
Annual Motoring Cost Comparison – Small Sedan – 15,000km per Year
ICE HEV PHEV EVFuel cost - $1.00/L 1110 660 330 0Fuel cost - $1.50/L 1665 990 495 0 Elec cost - 5c/kWh 0 0 69 139Elec cost - 20c/kWh 0 0 278 555 Battery degradation1 0 0 377 583 Maintenance2 726 631 539 365 Totals – low $1836 $1291 $1316 $1087Totals – high $2391 $1621 $1689 $15031 CARB Expert Panel Review of ZEV Technology (2007) – assumes 80% residual capacity at end of life.
2 EPRI Study of EV/PHEV Lifecycle Costs (2004)
No oil required for EVs
NB: No oil required for EVs = energy independence
from Garnaut Review (2008)
NB: Cleaner electricity means cleaner EVs.
Greenhouse Emissions
0
50
100
150
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250
ICE - 7.4L/100km HEV - 4.4L/100km PHEV - 50% UF EV - 185Wh/km
Emis
sion
s (gC
O2e
/km
)
Well-to-Wheel GHG Emissions for Petrol vs Electric Vehicles in Australia
MRET 20%
Electricity
Petrol
Small Sedan Platform
Evolution of
petroleum supply
Oil shaleTar sands
Gas-to-liquidsCoal-to-liquids
Evolution of
electricity supply
IGCCCO2 seq.
Wind/solarWave/tidal
Lifecycle Analysis for EVs/PHEVs
Toyota study of Prius HEV – a net winner after 20,000km.
MIT study of alt. vehicle technologies – EVs a net winner compared to ICE.
EV Recharging Infrastructure
NB: Standardized EV infrastructure is essential.
Coulomb Technologies / Charge Point
Better Place
Elektromotive
Toyota Industries
EV Battery Exchange
Better Place
Enabling Technology: Smart Grids(cars as appliances)
Courtesy of EPRI
EVs and Smart Grid: Capacity Expansion
• The existing US electricity grid can support a light-duty vehicle fleet that is composed of 73% EVs (160 million).
NB: No new capacity required to support mass-market EVs, but utility-optimized charging is preferred.
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (2007) “Impacts Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids”
EVs and Smart Grid: Capacity Factors
• EVs can increase capacity factors with low marginal cost of electricity supplied.
Letendre et al (2006) “Electric & Hybrid Cars – New Load, or New Resource?”
EVs and Smart Grid: Ancillary Services
• Ancillary services are a multi-billion-dollar market, and are also the most promising application of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology.
NB: “Back-feeding” of power is not essential to provide V2G services.
EVs and Utilities
• Utilities that ‘get it’ are incredibly supportive of EVs
• Southern California Edison (SCE)
Southern California Edison (SCE) Electric Vehicle Technical Center
SCE has operated a fleet of 320 Toyota RAV4 EVs since 1998
EVs and Utilities
• Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E)– Special EV tariffs– Early adopter of pre-
production EVs– Considering aftermarket
for used EV batteries
EVs and Utilities
• Xcel Energy– Field trials with 6 Ford Escape PHEVs with smart charging– Comprehensive service territory modelling with NREL
EVs and Utilities
• Electricite de France (EDF)– Prius PHEV field trials in Paris, London and soon, Spain
NB: Many utilities are still unfamiliar with EVs.
EVs and Smart Grid: V2G Aggregators
• Emerging business opportunities for EV “aggregators” who can pool EV resources, sell V2G services to utilities, and provide new commercial models for EV ownership to consumers.
Coulomb TechnologiesProject Better Place
EVs and Smart Grid: Enabling Renewables
Grid mix without EVs Grid mix with EVs
Doubling of installed wind capacity
Short & Denholm (2006) “A Preliminary Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles on Wind Energy Markets”
Enabling Renewables: Solar EV Charging
Enabling Technology: Maturing Renewables
Hunwick Consultants (2002)
Enabling Factor: Green Stimulus Packages
$11B for Smart Grids,$6B for Renewables,$2B for Plug-in Vehicles!
$2B for Renewables,$1B for Green Cars,$100M for Smart Grids!
It might happen first in our backyard!
North Port Quay: a carbon-free community development based on renewables, smart grids and electric vehicles.
Barriers to EVs in sustainable communities in Australia
• Lack of plug-in vehicles & components• Lack of plug-in infrastructure• Lack of plug-in vehicle standards and regulations• Misperceptions about EVs• Market distortions due to undersupply• Lack of green vehicle incentives• Regulatory constraints in the utility industry• Lack of truly smart grids• Lack of foresight in urban planning processes
Opportunities for EVs in sustainable communities in Australia
• Vehicles and charging infrastructure– components and systems– hardware and software– new and retrofit
• New automotive business models• Aggregators of V2G ancillary services• Demonstrations and pilot deployments• New communities (green and brown-
field)
Blade Electron (VIC)
How is CUSP pursuing its vision?The CUSP team:Peter Newman, Andrew Simpson, Walter James, Andrew Went and Peter Wolfs
Research projects:• Potential for EVs, smart grids and renewables (Walter James with Western Power)• Distribution impacts of EVs in smart grids (Andrew Went)• Transmission dynamics for EVs in smart grids (Prof Peter Wolfs with Western
Power)• Economics of EVs (Andrew Simpson)• Environmental benefits of EVs (team in conjunction with EV infrastructure
provider)
Stakeholder engagement and pilot deployments
• West Australian EV Reference Group (with UWA, Murdoch and CO2 Smart)
• Linking to AutoCRC and local EV conversion businesses for domestic EV supply• Advisors to green urban developments e.g. North Port Quay and Lochiel Park
CUSP Discussion Paper: Renewable Transport – How Renewable Energy and Electric Vehicles using Vehicle to Grid Technology can make Carbon Free Urban Developmenthttp://sustainability.curtin.edu.au/local/docs/cusp_discussion_paper.pdf
From this… …to this…
…or we’ll be stuck with this.
Any Questions?