Post on 17-Dec-2015
Crime and Cities
Edward L. GlaeserTaubman Center for State and Local
Government, Harvard University
Thank You For Coming
• The past week’s events in Rio’s Favela do Alemão reminds us that– despite much progress– crime in Latin America remains a major problem.
• The justification for the cause– the 19 alleged criminals killed in a violent police operation against drug dealers– reminds us that there is still much room for improvement in policing.
• This is why I am so excited about having so many terrific minds here to help us learn.
Overview of Presentation
• The Costs of Crime– Cross-Country Comparisons– Cross-City Comparisons– The Rebirth of New York
• Fighting Crime: What We Don’t Know– Social Causes of Crime– Optimal Policing and Corruption– Punishment, Incapacitation and Deterrence
The Costs of Crime: Direct Costs vs. Indirect Costs
• Direct Costs # 1: Destruction of Life and Property– Value of lives lost usually trumps other losses
• Direct Cost # 2: Public and private costs of self-protection– Self-protection and destruction of property
• Indirect Cost # 1: A Disincentive for Investment• Indirect Cost # 2: A Disamenity for a city or a
country
The Rise of the Consumer City
• The world is increasingly mobile, both within and across countries, and few places have innate production advatages– This has made consumer amenities more and
more important.– Crime destroys those consumer amenities by
being unpleasant in and of itself and by making it hard to enjoy public spaces
Cross-Country Evidence: Change in Murder and Growth
dmurder8090
growth80s Fitted values
-1.7879 5.11137
-.5894
.742268
Angola Albania
United A
Argentin
Australi
AustriaBurundi
Belgium
Burkina BangladeBahamas
Brunei D
Botswana
Canada Switzerl
Chile
China
Côte d'I
Cameroon
CongoColombia
Cyprus
GermanyDenmark
Dominica
Ecuador
EgyptSpainFinland
Fiji
France
GabonGhana
Greece
Guyana
Honduras
Hungary
Indonesi
IndiaIreland
Iceland IsraelItaly
Jamaica
Jordan
Japan
Kenya
Korea, R
Sri Lank
Lesotho
Luxembou
Morocco
Mali
Mauritiu
Malawi
Malaysia
Niger
NetherlaNorway
Nepal
New Zeal
Pakistan
Panama
Peru
PhilippiPapua Ne
Portugal
Paraguay
Rwanda
Saudi Ar
SudanSenegal
Singapor
Sweden
Swazilan
Syrian A
Thailand
Trinidad
Tunisia
Turkey
Uruguay
United S
VenezuelZambia
Zimbabwe
Rule of Law and Trade/GDP
Rule of law -- 1996-2002 -- Kauf
trade Fitted values
-1.82 2.165
13.8
318.07
Angola
United A
Argentin
Australi
Austria
Burundi
Belgium
Benin
Burkina
Banglade
Bulgaria
Bahamas
Belize
BoliviaBrazil
Bhutan
Botswana
Central Canada
Switzerl
Chile
China
Côte d'I
Cameroon
Congo
Colombia
Comoros
Cape Ver
Costa Ri
Cyprus
Germany
Djibouti
DenmarkDominica
AlgeriaEcuador EgyptSpain
Ethiopia
Finland
Fiji
France
Gabon
United K
Ghana
Guinea
Gambia
Guinea-BGreece
Guatemal
Guyana
Honduras
Haiti
Hungary
Indonesi
India
Ireland
Iran (Is
IcelandIsrael
Italy
Jamaica
Jordan
Japan
Kenya
Korea, R
Kuwait
Lao Peop
Liberia
Sri Lank
Lesotho
Luxembou
Morocco
MadagascMexico
MaliMongolia
Mozambiq
Mauritan
Mauritiu
Malawi
Malaysia
Namibia
Niger
NigeriaNicaragu
Netherla
Norway
Nepal
New Zeal
Oman
Pakistan
Panama
PeruPhilippi
Papua Ne
Poland
Portugal
ParaguayRomania
Rwanda
Saudi Ar
Sudan
Senegal
Singapor
Solomon
Sierra L
El Salva
Suriname
Sweden
Swazilan
Syrian A
Chad
Togo
ThailandTrinidad
Tunisia
Turkey
United RUganda
Uruguay
United S
Venezuel
Vanuatu
YemenSouth AfCongo, D
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Murder and Trade/GDPtr
ade
lmurder-1.95782 6.97452
13.8
318.07
Angola
United A
Argentin
Australi
Austria
Burundi
Belgium
Benin
Burkina
Banglade
Bulgaria
Bahamas
Belize
BoliviaBrazil
Botswana
Central Canada
Switzerl
Chile
China
Côte d'I
Cameroon
Congo
Colombia
Costa Ri
Cyprus
Germany
Djibouti
DenmarkDominica
Algeria EcuadorEgyptSpain
Ethiopia
Finland
Fiji
France
Gabon
Ghana
Guinea
Gambia
Guinea-BGreece
Guatemal
Guyana
Honduras
Hungary
Indonesi
India
Ireland
Iran (Is
Iceland Israel
Italy
Jamaica
Jordan
Japan
Kenya
Korea, R
Kuwait
Lao Peop
Sri Lank
Lesotho
Luxembou
Morocco
MadagascMexico
MaliMongolia
Mozambiq
Mauritan
Mauritiu
Malawi
Malaysia
Namibia
Niger
NigeriaNicaragu
Netherla
Norway
Nepal
New Zeal
Oman
Pakistan
Panama
PeruPhilippi
Papua Ne
Poland
Puerto R
Portugal
ParaguayRomania
Rwanda
Saudi Ar
Sudan
Senegal
Singapor
Solomon
Sierra L
El Salva
Suriname
Sweden
Swazilan
Syrian A
Chad
Togo
ThailandTrinidad
Tunisia
Turkey
United R Uganda
Uruguay
United S
VenezuelYemen
South AfCongo, D
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Advantages of Cross-City Work
• Fewer critical omitted variables– Think about everything else that changes at the
country level • Better and higher frequency measurement,
especially of crime.• The ability to use crimes other than murder.• The big difference: mobility of population• Population and housing price growth are the
two major measures of urban success.
Crime in 1980 and Urban Decline
Crimes (known) per 100,000 Popul
dpop8000 Fitted values
0 17930
-.39141
1.12156
Abilene
Akron ci
Albuquer
Alexandr
Allentow
Amarillo
Anaheim Anchorag
Ann Arbo
Arlingto
Arvada c
Atlanta
Aurora c
Austin c
Bakersfi
Baton Ro
Beaumont
Bellevue
Berkeley
Birmingh
Boise Ci
Boston c
Bridgepo
Brownsvi
Buffalo
Burbank
Cambridg
Charlott
Chattano
Chula Vi
Cincinna
Clarksvi
Clearwat
Clevelan
Colorado
Columbus
Concord Corpus C
Costa Me Dallas cDaly Cit
Dayton c
Denver c
Detroit
Downey c
Durham c
El Monte
El Paso
Elizabet
Erie cit
Escondid
Eugene c
Evansvil
Fayettev
Flint ci
Fort Col
Fort Lau
Fort Way
Fort Wor
Fremont
Fresno c
Fullerto
Garden G
Garland
Gary cit
Glendale
Glendale
Grand Pr
Green Ba
Greensbo
Hampton
Hartford
Hayward Hialeah
Hollywoo
Honolulu
Houston
Huntingt Huntsvil
Independ
Inglewoo
Irving c
Jackson
Jersey C
Kansas CKnoxvill
Lafayett
Lansing
Laredo c
Las Vega
Lincoln
Little R
Livonia
Long BeaLos Ange
Louisvil
Lubbock Madison
Manchest
McAllen
Memphis
Mesa cit
Mesquite
Miami ci
Milwauke
MinneapoMobile c
Modesto
Montgome
New Have
New Orle
New York
Newark c
Newport Oakland
Oceansid
OklahomaOmaha ci
Ontario
Orange cOrlando
Oxnard c
Pasadena
Pasadena
Paterson
Philadel
Phoenix
Pittsbur
Pomona c
Portland
Portsmou
Providen
Provo ci
Pueblo c
Raleigh Reno cit
Richmond
Riversid
Rocheste
SacramenSalem ci
Salinas
Salt Lak
San AntoSan Dieg
San Fran
San Jose
Santa An
Santa Cl
Santa Ro
Savannah
Scottsda
Seattle
Shrevepo
Sioux Fa
South Be
Spokane
Springfi
Springfi
St. Loui
St. PaulSt. Pete
StamfordSterling
Stockton
Sunnyval
Syracuse
Tacoma c
Tallahas
Tampa ci
Tempe ci
Toledo c
Topeka cTorrance
Tucson c
Tulsa ci
Vallejo
Virginia
Washingt
Waterbur
West Cov
Wichita
Wichita
Winston-
Yonkers
Aurora c
Baltimor
Cedar Ra
Chesapea
Chicago
Columbia
Des MoinGrand Ra
Irvine c
Joliet c
Kansas C
Lakewood
Lowell c
Norfolk
Norwalk
Overland
Peoria c
Plano ci
Rancho C
Rockford
San Bern
San BuenSimi Val
Springfi
Thousand
Waco cit
Warren c
Westmins
Worceste
Better Work on Crime and Migration: Levitt and Berry-Cullen
• A key issue in all of this work is causality: does crime cause urban decline or the reverse.
• Levitt and Berry-Cullen use ACLU suits against prisons as instruments
• These suits cause a release of criminals and an increase in crime.
• Each crime leads to one extra out-migration• Effect is five times larger for high income than
low income people.
The Exodus of the Skilled: Murder 1975 and Later Change in BAs
Murder Rate per 100,000 Populati
dba Fitted values
0 47.4
-1.38928
11.7243
Abilene
Akron ci
Albuquer
Alexandr
Allentow
Amarillo
Anaheim Anchorag
Ann Arbo
ArlingtoArvada c
Atlanta
Aurora c
Austin c
Bakersfi
Baton Ro
Beaumont
Bellevue
Berkeley
Birmingh
Boise Ci
Boston c
Bridgepo
Brownsvi
Buffalo
Burbank
Cambridg
Charlott
Chattano
Chula Vi
Cincinna
Clearwat
Clevelan
Colorado
Columbus
Concord
Corona c
Corpus C
Costa Me
Dallas c
Daly Cit
Dayton c
Denver c
Detroit
Downey c
Durham c
El MonteEl Paso
Elizabet
Erie cit
Escondid
Eugene c
Evansvil
Fayettev
Flint ci
Fort Col
Fort Lau
Fort Way
Fort Wor
Fremont
Fresno cFullertoGarden G
Garland
Gary cit
Glendale
GlendaleGrand Pr
Green Ba
Greensbo
Hampton
Hartford
Hayward
Hialeah
Hollywoo
Honolulu
Houston
Huntingt
Huntsvil
Independ Inglewoo
Irving c
Jackson
Jersey C
Kansas C
Knoxvill
Lafayett
Lansing
Laredo c
Las Vega
Lincoln
Little RLivonia
Long Bea
Los Ange
LouisvilLubbock
Madison
Manchest
McAllen Memphis Mesa cit
Mesquite
Miami ci
Milwauke
Minneapo
Mobile c
Modesto
Montgome
New Have
New Orle
New York
Newark cNewport
Oakland
Oceansid
Oklahoma
Omaha ci
Ontario
Orange cOrlando
Oxnard c
Pasadena
Pasadena
Paterson
Philadel
Phoenix
Pittsbur
Pomona c
Portland
Portsmou
Providen
Provo ci
Pueblo c
Raleigh
Reno cit
Richmond
Riversid
RochesteSacramen
Salem ciSalinas
Salt Lak
San Anto
San Dieg
San Fran
San Jose
Santa An
Santa Cl
Santa Ro
Savannah
Scottsda
Seattle
Shrevepo
Sioux FaSouth Be
Spokane Springfi
Springfi
St. Loui
St. Paul
St. Pete
Stamford
Sterling
Stockton
Sunnyval
Syracuse
Tacoma c
TallahasTampa ci
Tempe ci
Toledo c
Topeka c
Torrance
Tucson c
Tulsa ci
Vallejo
Vancouve
Virginia
Washingt
Waterbur
West Cov
Wichita
Wichita
Winston-
Yonkers
Aurora c
Baltimor
Carrollt
Cedar RaChesapea
Chicago Columbia
Des Moin
Grand Ra
Irvine c
Joliet c
Kansas C
Lakewood
Lowell c
Napervil
Norfolk
North La
Norwalk
Overland
Peoria c
Plano ci
Rockford
San Bern
Simi Val
Springfi
Waco citWarren c
Worceste
City Growth and Crime in Brazil: Henderson and Others (2005)
• Henderson and co-authors look at Brazilian city growth between 1970 and 2000.
• They use a panel and find that a ten percent increase in homicides is associated with a 1.1 percent decrease in population growth over each five year period.
• The ability of crime to hurt cities is not limited to the U.S.
Amenities and City Growth
• Urban success is ultimately driven by the demand of individuals to live in that location.
• Productivity (Income) and Amenities are thought to be the two drivers.
• As people have gotten richer and as transport costs have declined, amenities have gotten more important.
• Amenity Measure: Prices that are higher than they should be controlling for income.
Amenity Index: Housing Prices Controlling for Income Levels
Highest Lowest
Honolulu, HI Stamford, CTSanta Cruz, CA Norwalk, CTSanta Barbara-Santa Maria-Lompoc, CA Anchorage, AKSalinas-Seaside-Monterey, CA Rochester, MNLos Angeles-Long Beach, CA Detroit, MISan Francisco, CA Midland, TXSan Jose, CA Trenton, NJSanta Rosa-Petaluma, CA Minneapolis-St. Paul, MNOxnard-Ventura, CA Nassau-Suffolk, NYSan Diego, CA Bloomington-Normal, IL
Source:
Table 4:United States MSA with Highest and Lowest Estimated Amenity Values
Note: Estimated Amenity Value measured as residual from an OLS regression of log median house value on log median income in 1990.
Originally appeared in Glaeser, Edward L., Jed Kolko, and Albert Saiz. "Consumer City." Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press 1.1 (2001): 27-50.
Amenity Index and Population Growth
Figure 11: 1980-2000 Population Growth on Amenity IndexAmenity Index
1980-2000 Change in Population Fitted values
-.5 0 .5 1
-.5
0
.5
1
BeaumontSaginaw-
Detroit-Kalamazo
Johnstow
Grand RaIndianap
Fort WayCorpus C
YoungstoUtica-Ro
RochesteLansing-Syracuse
Duluth-S
Louisvil
Omaha, NMacon, G
McAllen-
San Anto
Rockford
Greenvil
Reading,
Jacksonv
St. Loui
Hickory-
Scranton
ChattanoEvansvil
Kansas CWichita,
Columbus
Buffalo-
SpringfiPhiladelAlbany-S
Augusta-
Allentow
Peoria-P
Appleton
Charlott
Pittsbur
Pensacol
Erie, PA
Biloxi-G
Canton-M
Davenpor
Harrisbu
Dayton-SToledo,
Greensbo
Shrevepo
OklahomaYork, PA
Binghamt
Richmond
Johnson
Memphis,Des Moin
Birmingh
Little R
Lakeland
Tulsa, O
Atlanta,
Montgome
Huntingt
CincinnaMobile,
Dallas-F
KnoxvillLancaste
Houston-
Columbia
Nashvill
ColumbusJackson,Charlest
Lafayett
El Paso,
Norfolk-
Charlest
Boston-W
Clevelan
Raleigh-
Orlando,
Providen
Melbourn
Tampa-St
Baton RoSpokane,
Milwauke
Minneapo
Austin-S
Lexingto
Chicago-Hartford
Boise Ci
Daytona
New Orle
Salt Lak
New York
Bakersfi
Madison,Albuquer
Phoenix-West Pal
Sarasota
Denver-BPortland
Washingt
StocktonColorado
New Have
Seattle-Miami-Fo
Tucson,
Las Vega
Modesto,
Eugene-S
SacramenFresno,
Los AngeSalinas,
San Dieg
Santa BaSan Fran
Honolulu
Crime as a Disamenity
• The hedonic literature has long documented the negative impact of crime on property values.
• Thaler (1975) is an early paper showing this connection.
• A vast number of studies have confirmed that higher crime rates are associated with lower property values (and hence amenities) within and across urban areas.
Housing Prices and Crime
1999 Crime Rate
median value of all owner-occup Fitted values
2944 13998
39577
422700
Albuquer
Anaheim
Anchorag
Arlingto
Atlanta Aurora c
Austin c
Boston c
Buffalo
Charlott
Cincinna
Clevelan
Colorado
Columbus
Corpus C
Dallas c
Denver c
Detroit El Paso Fort Wor
Fresno c
Honolulu
Houston Kansas C
Las Vega
Long Bea
Los Ange
LouisvilMemphis
Mesa cit Miami ci
Milwauke
Minneapo
New Orle
New York
Newark c
Oakland
OklahomaOmaha ci
Philadel
Phoenix
Pittsbur
PortlandRaleigh Riversid
Sacramen
San Anto
San Dieg
San Fran
San Jose
Santa An
Seattle
St. Loui
St. Paul
Tampa ciToledo c
Tucson cTulsa ci
Virginia
Washingt
Wichita
Chicago
Home Value Change and Crime Rate
Log Ch. Crime Rate 1980-2000
Log Ch. Home Values 1980-2000 Fitted values
-1.05487 .337192
-.280652
1.02699
Albuquer
Atlanta
Austin c
Birmingh
Boston c
Buffalo
Charlott
CincinnaClevelan
Columbus
Dallas c
Denver c
Detroit
El Paso
Fort Wor Honolulu
Houston
Kansas CLong Bea
Los Ange
Louisvil
Memphis
Miami ci
Milwauke
Minneapo
New Orle
New YorkNewark c
Oakland
Oklahoma
Omaha ciPhiladel
Phoenix Pittsbur
Portland
Sacramen
San AntoSan Dieg
San FranSan Jose Seattle
St. Loui
St. Paul
Tampa ci
Toledo c
Tucson cTulsa ci
Virginia
Washingt
Wichita
Chicago
Revival of NYC and Other US Cities• In the 1970s, almost all of the older American
cities looked like they were in trouble.• Economic decline, fiscal distress, and high crime
rates made them look like dinosaurs.• Since 1975, the high skilled cities have done quite
well, even in their downtowns.• One part of that is the rise of the older city as
consumer city (reverse commuting)• Crime can explain about 1/3 of NYC housing price
appreciation (Schwartz et al.)
Cities and Skills in the Colder Regionscoef = .01169126, se = .00161765, t = 7.23
e(
dp
op
| X
)
e( bagrad90 | X )-10.4384 24.0572
-.310423
.311965
Steubenv
Johnstow
Altoona,
Lima, OH
Mansfiel
Youngsto
Williams
LewistonJackson,
Joplin,
Janesvil
Wausau,
St. Jose
Kokomo,
Sharon, Scranton
Sheboyga
Canton--
York, PA
Jamestow
Elkhart-
Decatur,
Evansvil
Reading,
Saginaw-Terre Ha
Elmira,
Glens FaRockford
Utica--R
Sioux Ci
Fort Way
Erie, PA
Muncie,
Lancaste
Benton HDubuque,
Duluth--
Eau Clai
Peoria--
St. ClouAppleton
Waterloo
Allentow
Davenpor
Toledo,
Green Ba
Bangor,
Grand Ra
Harrisbu
Detroit-
Springfi
Pittsbur
Clevelan
Buffalo-
Dayton--
South Be
CincinnaLa Cross
Binghamt
Indianap
Kalamazo
Providen
St. Loui
Sioux Fa
Milwauke
Syracuse
Springfi
Pittsfie
Rapid Ci
Grand Fo
Wichita,
Cedar Ra
New LondSpringfi
Bismarck
PhiladelTopeka,
Omaha, N
Des Moin
Rocheste
Kansas C
Columbus
Chicago-
Albany--Lansing-
Fargo--M
New York
Lafayett
Hartford
Minneapo
Portland
Lincoln,
Boston--
Barnstab
BloomingBurlingt
New Have
Rocheste
State CoBlooming
Champaig
Madison,Columbia
Lawrence
Iowa Cit
Crime and NYC: The Long Haul
Crime in NYC and Chicago since 1980
Homicide Rate and Real Estate Prices in NYC 1970 - 2000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Ho
mic
ides
per
100
,000
Res
iden
ts
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Rea
l Est
ate
Pri
ces
(In
dex
)
Economic and Social Roots of Crime
• What underlying societal factors explain the level of crime?
• Across countries, inequality seems important (Fajznlberger, Loayza and Lederman)– Overall wealth is less important
• Across cities, unemployment matters (Witte)• Urban size strongly predicts crime• Social multipliers seems to create crime waves
Inequality and Crime: Fajnzlberger, Lederman and Loayza (JLE)
Crime and Income: a weaker relationship
lngdppop80
lmurder Fitted values
4.99726 10.5927
-1.95782
6.97452
Angola
Albania
United A
Argentin
AustraliAustria
Burundi
BelgiumBenin
Burkina
Banglade
Bulgaria
BahamasBelizeBolivia
Brazil
Brunei D
Botswana
Central
Canada
Switzerl
Chile
China
Côte d'I
Cameroon
Congo
Colombia
Costa Ri Cyprus
GermanyDenmark
Dominica
Algeria
Ecuador
Egypt
Spain
Estonia
FinlandFiji France
Gabon
Georgia
Ghana
Gambia
Guinea-B
Greece
Guatemal
Guyana
Honduras
Hungary
Indonesi
India
Ireland
Iran (Is
Iceland
Israel
Italy
Jamaica
Jordan
Japan
Kenya
Korea, R
KuwaitSri Lank
Lesotho
Luxembou
Latvia
Morocco
Republic
Madagasc
Mexico
Mali
Mozambiq
Mauritan Mauritiu
MalawiMalaysia
Namibia
Niger
Nigeria
Nicaragu
Netherla
Norway
NepalNew ZealOman
Pakistan
Panama
Peru
Philippi
Papua Ne Puerto R
Portugal
Paraguay
Russian
Rwanda
Saudi Ar
Sudan
SenegalSingaporSolomon
Sierra L
El Salva
SurinameSweden
Swazilan
Syrian A
Chad
Togo
Thailand
Trinidad
Tunisia
Turkey
Uruguay
United SVenezuel
South Af
Congo, D
ZambiaZimbabwe
Cross Cities: Crime and Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, 2000
1999 Crime Rate Fitted values
1.7 12.9
2878
13998
Akron ci
Albuquer
Anaheim
Anchorag
Arlingto
Atlanta
Aurora c
Austin c
Bakersfi
Baton Ro
Birmingh
Boston c
Buffalo
Charlott
CincinnaClevelan
Colorado
Columbus
Corpus C
Dallas c
Denver c
Detroit
El Paso
Fort Way
Fort Wor
Fremont
Fresno c
Garland
Glendale
Greensbo
Hialeah
Honolulu
Houston
Jersey C
Kansas C
Las Vega
Lincoln
Long BeaLos Ange
Louisvil
Madison
Memphis
Mesa cit
Miami ci
Milwauke
Minneapo
Montgome New Orle
New York
Newark c
Oakland
Oklahoma
Omaha ciPhiladel
Phoenix
Pittsbur
Portland
Raleigh
Riversid
Rocheste
SacramenSan Anto
San Dieg
San Fran
San Jose
Santa An
Scottsda
Seattle
Shrevepo
St. Loui
St. Paul
St. Pete
Stockton
Tampa ci
Toledo c
Tucson c
Tulsa ci
Virginia
Washingt
Wichita
Chicago
Plano ci
Crime and Schooling
% persons 25+ with HS or higher,
SERIOUS CRIMES PER 100,000 POPU Fitted values
44.3 95.1
2829
18953
Abilene
Akron ci
Albuquer
Alexandr
Allentow
Amarillo
Anaheim Anchorag
Ann Arbo
Arlingto
Arvada c
Atlanta
Aurora c
Austin c
Bakersfi
Baton Ro
Beaumont
Bellevue
BerkeleyBirmingh
Boise Ci
Boston c
Bridgepo
Brownsvi Buffalo
Burbank
Cambridg
CharlottChattano
Chula Vi
Cincinna
Clarksvi
ClearwatClevelan
Colorado
Columbus
Concord
Corona c
Corpus C
Costa Me
Dallas c
Daly Cit
Dayton c
Denver c
Detroit
Downey c
Durham c
El Monte
El Paso
Elizabet
Erie cit
Escondid Eugene c
Evansvil
FayettevFlint ci
Fort Col
Fort Lau
Fort Way
Fort Wor
Fremont
Fresno c
FullertoGarden GGarland
Gary cit
Glendale
Glendale
Grand Pr
Green Ba
Greensbo
Hampton
Hartford
Hayward
Hialeah
Hollywoo
Honolulu
Houston
Huntingt
Huntsvil
Independ
Inglewoo Irving c
Jackson
Jersey C
Kansas C
Knoxvill Lafayett
Lansing
Laredo c
Las VegaLincoln
Little R
Livonia
Long BeaLos Ange
Louisvil Lubbock Madison Manchest
McAllen Memphis
Mesa citMesquite
Miami ci
Milwauke
Minneapo
Mobile c
Modesto
Montgome
New Have
New Orle
New York
Newark c
Newport
Oakland
Oceansid
Oklahoma
Omaha ci
Ontario
Orange cOrlando Oxnard cPasadena
Pasadena
Paterson
Philadel
Phoenix
PittsburPomona c
Portland
PortsmouProviden
Provo ci
Pueblo c Raleigh Reno cit
Richmond
Riversid
Rocheste
Sacramen
Salem ci
Salinas
Salt LakSan Anto
San Dieg
San Fran
San Jose
Santa An
Santa ClSanta Ro
Savannah
Scottsda
Seattle
Shrevepo
Sioux FaSouth Be
Spokane
Springfi
Springfi
St. Loui
St. Paul
St. Pete
Stamford
Sterling
Stockton
Sunnyval
Syracuse
Tacoma c
Tallahas
Tampa ci
Tempe ci
Toledo c
Topeka c
Torrance
Tucson c
Tulsa ci
Vallejo
Virginia
Washingt
Waterbur
West Cov
Wichita Wichita
Winston-
Yonkers
Baltimor
Cape Cor
CarrolltChandler
Chesapea
Columbia
Coral Sp
Fontana
Grand Ra
HendersoIrvine c
Kansas C
Lakewood
Lancaste
LexingtoMoreno V
Norfolk
Norwalk Overland
Palmdale
PembrokePeoria c
Plano ci
Port St.
Rancho C
San Buen
Santa ClSimi ValThousand
Waco cit
Warren c
West Val
Westmins
Crime and City Size
lpop80
Crimes (known) per 100,000 Popu Fitted values
10.1008 15.7716
0
17930
Abilene
Akron ci
AlbuquerAlexandr
AllentowAmarillo
Anaheim Anchorag
Ann Arbo
Arlingto
Arvada c
Atlanta
Aurora c
Austin c
BakersfiBaton Ro
Beaumont
Bellevue
Berkeley
Birmingh
Boise Ci
Boston c
Bridgepo
Brownsvi
Buffalo
Burbank
Cambridg Charlott
Chattano
Chula Vi
Cincinna
Clarksvi
Clearwat
Clevelan
Colorado
Columbus
Concord Corona c
Corpus CCosta Me
Dallas c
Daly Cit
Dayton c
Denver c Detroit
Downey c
Durham c
El Monte
El Paso
Elizabet
Erie cit
Escondid
Eugene c
Evansvil
Fayettev
Flint ci
Fort Col
Fort Lau
Fort Way
Fort Wor
Fremont
Fresno c
Fullerto
Garden G
Garland
Gary cit
GlendaleGlendale
Grand Pr
Green Ba
Greensbo
Hampton
Hartford
Hayward
Hialeah
Hollywoo
Honolulu Houston
Huntingt
Huntsvil
Independ
Inglewoo
Irving c
Jackson Jersey C
Kansas C
Knoxvill
LafayettLansing
Laredo c
Las Vega
Lincoln
Little R
Livonia
Long Bea
Los Ange
Louisvil
Lubbock Madison
Manchest
McAllen Memphis
Mesa citMesquite
Miami ci
Milwauke
MinneapoMobile c
Modesto
Montgome
New Have
New Orle
New York
Newark c
Newport
Oakland
Oceansid
Oklahoma
Omaha ci
Ontario
Orange c
Orlando
Oxnard c
Pasadena
Pasadena
Paterson
Philadel
Phoenix
Pittsbur
Pomona c
Portland
Portsmou
Providen
Provo ci
Pueblo cRaleigh
Reno cit
Richmond
Riversid
Rocheste
Sacramen
Salem ci
Salinas
Salt Lak
San AntoSan Dieg
San Fran
San Jose
Santa An
Santa ClSanta Ro
Savannah
Scottsda
Seattle
Shrevepo
Sioux Fa
South Be
Spokane Springfi
Springfi
St. Loui
St. PaulSt. Pete
Stamford
Sterling
Stockton
Sunnyval
Syracuse
Tacoma c
Tallahas
Tampa ci
Tempe ciToledo c
Topeka c
Torrance
Tucson c
Tulsa ci
Vallejo Vancouve
Virginia
Washingt
Waterbur
West CovWichita
Wichita Winston-
Yonkers
Aurora c
Baltimor
Cape Cor
Carrollt Cedar RaChandler
Chesapea
Chicago
Columbia
Coral Sp
Des MoinFontana
Grand Ra
Irvine c
Joliet c
Kansas C
Lakewood
Lancaste
Lowell c
Napervil
Norfolk
North La
Norwalk Overland
Pembroke
Peoria c
Plano ci
Rancho C
Rockford
San Bern
San Buen
Simi Val
Springfi
Thousand
Waco citWarren c
Westmins
Worceste
Why is there more crime in cities?• Cities have more available victims (about 1/5 of
the effect)– Distance between criminal and victim declines
• Enforcement is harder in cities (about ¼)– The poor of suspects is much larger
• Cities attract people who are crime-prone (about ½ of the relationship in the U.S.)– Cities have good amenities for the poor, like public
transportation– Cities might particularly have more weaker traditional
rules
Crime and Social Interactions• For many reasons crime appears to be
contagious. • Overcrowding of police (riots)• Transfer of crime-related human capital
(evidence from prisons by Bayer)• Legitimization of criminal activity• Standard peer effects work (Case and Katz)• High variance of crime rates (GSS)• If so, then there is a social multiplier in anti-crime
activities
Fighting Crime: Social Policy vs. Crime Policy
• The connection between social distress and crime does suggest that social policy has some role to play in fighting crime.
• Donahue and Siegelman review a series of interventions (like head start) and argue that some are cost effective relative to prisons (which cost around 40k/year).
• But there are many reasons to doubt the social policy will be effective on its own.
The Limitations of Social Policy
• The ability to create widespread social change is quite limited and surely takes decades.
• By contrast, many cities have been able to change its crime policy over a few years.
• Moreover, the elasticities of crime with respect to poverty are not all that strong.
• Without increasing the costs of crime, there is unlikely to be a major reduction in crime.
Crime and Punishment
• The economic approach to criminal policy has emphasized deterrence and incapacitation. – Little faith has been put in rehabilitation both
because of theory and high recidivism rates.
• The traditional theory (Becker, 1968) has particularly emphasized deterrence and has called for more fines than prisons.
• More recent work (Levitt) has emphasized incapacitation (prisons and abortion).
Crime and Incarceration
• Typical estimates of the elasticity of crime with respect to incarceration rates run from .15-.25.
• Levitt’s work using ACLU-forced prison releases suggests higher estimates (.3).
• The time series of incarceration certainly does seem to support the view that locking people up is effective, but at a terrible cost.
Two Graphs from Levitt
Incarceration and Homicides in Sao Paulo
Prisoners and Criminal Homicide in the State of São Paulo
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Source: Secretaria de Segurança Pública
20
00
= 1
00
Prisoners
Criminal Homicides
Theory on Incapacitation and Deterrence
• The relative importance of incapacitation and deterrence depends mainly on the specialization of the criminal.
• If criminals are specialized, the punishment should work through incapacitation.
• When they are amateurs, then deterrence is more important.
• Could the division of labor explain the 19th century rise in prisons (Foucault).
Application to Latin America
• The lack of national, systematic victimization surveys and crime report statistics compromise clearance rate estimates.
• Still the available data shows that homicides clearance rates in Rio de Janeiro are about 2.7% and about 12% in São Paulo (Piquet)
• Compared to 64% in the USA in 2002.
Can the difference in punishment explain the difference in crime?
• If we take an average clearance rate of 7.5% for Rio and Sao Paulo vs. 64% in the U.S.
• A typical large U.S. city might have about 15 murders per 100,000
• With an elasticity of .3, this predicts that the murder rate in the Brazilian cities should be about double the murder rate in the U.S.
• But the actual murder rate is about closer to four times as high
Reconciling the Figures
• Theory # 1: there is a lot more other than clearance rates that makes Brazil have a higher crime problem (inequality, etc.).
• There are many U.S. with a homicide rate that is far more than ½ of the rate in Brazil.
• Theory # 2: the crime elasticities are higher for more professional types of murders, and much of the difference between the regions reflects those more professional murders.
Effective Policing
• To economists, who know little about the business of policing, crime policy tends to come down to the probability of arrest and the length of sentence.
• To policing experts, much more matters and they are surely right.– Better Information Technology– Community policing– Corruption
Information Technology and Crime
• There is a long history of police using new information technology to fight crime– Dial 911 was a particularly dramatic innovation
• In the 1990s, information became used both to target responses and to evaluate precinct commanders (CompStat)
• Incentives tied to actual crime• NYPD Real Time Crime Center (opens in 2005)
The Rise of Community Policing
• Boston and NYC both had significant crime reductions in the 1990s, but followed different crime strategies (Chris Stone).
• NYC was police-centered; Boston focused on community partnership (Ten Point Coalition).
• Basic idea is to leverage police by using community resources.
• Reduces crime while building trust– but is it sustainable or transferable?
Corruption, Violence and Law Enforcement
• In 2004, 983 people were killed by the police at the State of Rio de Janeiro.
• This number is twice the number of justifiable homicides perpetrated by all US police departments together (about 450 a year according to NBJS).
Violence against Police
• Police officers are also at severe risk of being killed in the line of duty: in this same year (2004),
• 111 police officers were killed at Rio de Janeiro and 27 in São Paulo from a total of 50 thousand police officers in Rio and 120 thousand in São Paulo.
• At the US, 54 officers were killed in 2004 from approximately 796 thousand.
Corruption in Brazil
• From 1996 to 2006, 5567 police officers were placed under investigation and 4923 were dismissed from their positions.
• Officers dismissed from Sao Paulo over time:Year Number of Officers
Dismissed2000 3522001 4312002 5262003 8782004 4972005 427
Corruption and Murders
Corruption -- 1996-2002 -- Kaufm
lmurder Fitted values
-1.5625 2.39
-1.95782
6.97452
Angola
Albania
United A
ArgentinArmenia
AustraliAustria
Azerbaij
Burundi
BelgiumBenin
Burkina
Banglade
Bulgaria
Bahamas
Bosnia H
Belarus
BelizeBolivia
Brazil
Brunei D
Botswana
Central
Canada
Switzerl
Chile
China
Côte d'I
Cameroon
Congo
Colombia
Costa Ri Cyprus
Czech Re Germany
DjiboutiDenmark
Dominica
Algeria
Ecuador
EgyptEritrea
Spain
EstoniaEthiopia
FinlandFiji France
Gabon
Georgia
Ghana
GuineaGambia
Guinea-B
Greece
Guatemal
Guyana
Honduras
Croatia
Hungary
Indonesi
India
Ireland
Iran (Is
Iceland
Israel
Italy
Jamaica
Jordan
Japan
Kazaksta
Kenya
Kyrgyzst
Cambodia
Korea, R
Kuwait
Lao Peop
LebanonSri Lank
Lesotho
Lithuani
Luxembou
Latvia
Morocco
Republic
Madagasc
Mexico
The form
Mali
Mongolia
Mozambiq
Mauritan Mauritiu
MalawiMalaysia
Namibia
Niger
Nigeria
Nicaragu
Netherla
Norway
NepalNew ZealOman
Pakistan
Panama
Peru
Philippi
Papua Ne
Poland
Portugal
Paraguay
Romania
Russian
Rwanda
Saudi Ar
Sudan
SenegalSingaporSolomon
Sierra L
El Salva
Sao TomeSuriname
Slovakia
Slovenia Sweden
Swazilan
Syrian A
Chad
Togo
Thailand
Trinidad
Tunisia
Turkey
United R
Uganda
Ukraine
Uruguay
United S
Uzbekist
Venezuel
Viet Nam
Yemen
South Af
Congo, D
ZambiaZimbabwe
Improving Police Work