Post on 06-Jan-2022
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Climate science is the only scientific discipline with such
an authorative boundary organisation between science
and policy
Why do we need an IPCC?
Glaciers smelt very fast at
Antarctica
22-05-2015 de Volkskrant
Nederlands emit much more CO2
22-04-2015 Trouw
Sea level rises faster
12-05-2015 de Volkskrant
Snow fall slows down
sea level rise
17-03-2015 de Volkskrant
More ice on Antarctica due to climate
change
31-03-2015 Nu.nl
Sea level rises slower than
expected
11-07-2014 de Volkskrant
Nederlands emit less CO2
29-05-2013 Nu.nl
Global warming has already
stopped for 16 years
16-10-2012 Telegraaf
Global warming
slower than expected
21-09-2013 Trouw
Global warming faster than
expected
06-10-2014 New Scientist
Dangerous tropical cyclones have sloweddown because of global warming. Independent, june, 2018
Climate Change likley worsedue to observational errorsAD, 26-10-17
Left-wing climate change histerica is nonsense
NRC, 19-01-2018
No, the Earth cannot get fever
Telegraph, 20-06-2018
WHAT IS THE TASK OF THE IPCC?
Providing an assessment of the scientific knowledge of climate change: the physical basis, the vulnerability, socio-economic impacts and adaptation – mitigation options
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WAT IS THE IPCC?A panel with government representatives of all UN member states
• WHAT THE IPCC DOES
Organising the writing process
Determining which rapports should appear
Determines the index
Determines the rules
Approves the reports
• WHAT IT DOES NOT
Ordering reseaerch
Prescribing the scientici content
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Impact of IPCC assessments
1990 1995 2001 2007
SARFAR AR4
SR Emission scenarios
SR Technology Transfer
SR CO2 capture and
storage
SR Ozone and Climate
20052000
UNFCCC
agreed
Kyoto Protocol
agreed
TAR
Kyoto Protocol
in force
UNFCCC
in force
Doha
agreement
2010 2012 2015
SR Renawbles
SR Managing
risks on
Extreme Events
AR5
IPCC
created
Paris 2015
Publications
Main report:
•Assessment
•Technical summary
•Summary for policy makers
•Synthesis
Extra:
•Special assessments
•Technical publications
•Supporting material
Approval of the IPCC assessment
By approving the Summary forPolicy Makers, the assessmentis approved
Approval process
• Panel consists of government representatives of 195 UN countries
• Official 6 UN languages: English, Arabic, Chinese, Spanish, French, en Russian
• All countries have speaking rights by interventions or bynotes
• There are observers (zoals as the EU Commisson , WMO, WHO, UNESCO, FAO, World bank, etc.), but without speaking rightt. They can ask for speaking time
Line by line
•The SPM is approved line by line
•Conflicts can be solved through (in)formal groups(countriesand authors)
•Authors always have the last word
• Interventions: – upon request by raising your flag and wait for your turn– by motions through notes submitted to the board
• Intervention strategy: – let other countries make your intervention– form coalitions for a joined intervention– persuade dissenters off-line
• Discussion with science panel (authors) is
not allowed during formal plenary
• Text changes can only formally be approved
after the authors approval
Approval session rules
Approval process
• Text approval by consensus
• Handling of conflicts:
✓ In small groups during the plenary
✓ In a larger group in a separated room (informal consultation)
✓ In formel contact groups (with chair and secretary)
• Sessions within UN translator timeslots
• Exceeding timeslots: the panel must agree upon English as the formal language
• Nights-long sessions .....
If was painfull from the start
Monday: 15:00
Discussion about credibility of climate science:
model projections: ‘assumptions’
The very first conclusionafter day 1 not even approved
Tuesday: 10:00
This was the start of a 3-day long difficult discussion
Time pressure is extremely high
Day 3Day2 Day 4
WG1, Stockholm
September 2013
SyR, Copenhagen
Oktober 2014
Approval SPM WGIII Berlincomplete figures where removed from the SPM
2500
3000
3500
OECD 1990
Economies in Transition
Asia
Latin America
Middle East and Africa
CO
2em
issio
n f
ossil
fuels
and land u
se (
Gt)
Political tensions
• The OPEC countries, Russia and Baltic States try to weaken the conclusions
• China is very critical with anti-Western attitude
• Germany pushes its sustainable energy political agenda
• US is tight by national political constraints and geo-political interests
• Developing countries and small Island states try to strengthen the conclusions for more investments
Affects the formulation of the conclusions
Saudi Arabia - ‘This is inflammatory language written to give Reuters a headline’
Bolivia - ‘When a change is suggested by the South it is ignored but when the same suggestion is made by a country from the North it is accepted’
Venezuela – ‘It is unfair to make decisions in contact groups and expect the plenary to accept them without question’
Challenges for policy assessmentsWish Pitfall
Sound scientific quality Internal process(group thinking)
political ownership Political prescriptive
Transparant Public engagement
Chaotic and unreliable
Policy relevant Policy prescriptive(alarmism)