Post on 22-May-2015
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Corn, Cattle, ConfusionTim Petry – Livestock Economistwww.ndsu.edu/livestockeconomicsOctober 16, 2013
Photo courtesy of Judy Jacobson, Watford City
corn,cattle,confusion-Oct2013.pptx
Corn Cattle Confusion
2012NOV FC vs DEC CORN
2013NOV FC vs DEC CORN
Omaha Corn PricesWeekly
JAN APR JUL OCT0123456789
2013
2012
2011
Avg. 2006-010
Avg. 2002-06
$ per bu
Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-AMS
G-P-02
CORN: Sun Prairie Grain - Minot
Government ShutdownOct. 1-16, 2013
Government Shutdown
• Cash market not reported by USDA-AMS• CME Feeder Cattle Index (avg. of AMS prices)
– used to settle feeder cattle futures– used to settle LRP contracts– the last reported Index was record high $159.89 on Sep.
30• LRP insurance (USDA-RMA) not available and
existing contracts not settled• No Oct. COF (USDA-NASS) report (rescheduled Oct.
31)
Calf and Feeder Cattle Prices• Under 600 lb. - very good demand supported by winter wheat grazing
10/17/13 – Valentine, NE243 head, fancy, 493 lb. @ $220.25100 head, fancy, 553 lb. @ $198.75
• 600 – 700 lb. - weaker demand – especially unweaned
• Over 700 lb. - very good demand supported by record corn crop, farmer feeder, and excess feedlot capacity
10/17/13 – Green City, MO318 head, 800-850 lb. @ $170.76 avg.
• Heifers - steep season discounts with light receipts but premiums for replacement quality
Nebraska- Replacement Quality500-550 @ $199.49700-750 @ $175.50
MED. FRAME #1 STEER CALF PRICES550-600 Pounds, N.D., Weekly
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
JAN APR JUL OCT
Projected
2013
2012
2011
2007-2011 AVG
MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES750-800 Pounds, N.D., Weekly
8090
100110120130140150160170
JAN APR JUL OCT
Fut 2014
Fut 2013
Projected
2013
2012
2011
2007-2011 AVG2
CME Feeder Cattle Index
859095
100105110115120125130135140145150155160
9/1/
0511
/1/0
51/
1/06
3/1/
065/
1/06
7/1/
069/
1/06
11/1
/06
1/1/
073/
1/07
5/1/
077/
1/07
9/1/
0711
/1/0
71/
1/08
3/1/
085/
1/08
7/1/
089/
1/08
11/1
/08
1/1/
093/
1/09
5/1/
097/
1/09
9/1/
0911
/1/0
91/
1/10
3/1/
105/
1/10
7/1/
109/
1/10
11/1
/10
1/1/
113/
1/11
5/1/
117/
1/11
9/1/
1111
/1/1
11/
1/12
3/1/
125/
1/12
7/1/
129/
1/12
11/1
/12
1/1/
133/
1/13
5/1/
137/
1/13
9/1/
13
16% 21% 19%22% 10%
?+17%
19%
0%
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Profit from Backgrounding $174 Calves550 lb. to 750 lb.ADG = 2.77 lbs.
72 Days on Feed (Example: Oct. 30 – Jan. 11)$/Head
Price750 lb. Steer Corn ($/bu.)($/cwt) 3.50 3.70 3.90 4.10 4.30 4.50150 24 21 17 13 9 5155 60 56 53 49 45 41160 96 92 89 85 81 77165 132 128 125 121 117 113170 168 164 161 157 153 149
Harvest usually bringsout the bears
Questions?