Post on 26-Mar-2015
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
Beyond Moore’s Law (and the web):What’s next?
Nets Everywherehttp://research.microsoft.com/~gbell/pubs.htm
Gordon Bell
Bay Area Research Center
Microsoft Corporation
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
Outline… pervasive computing from in body to world scale
Technology basis On, in, and around body… Mobility: essential for people, phone build out Storing everything you’ve ever… Home, personal, and media stores Scalable systems: what is central vs personal? .net: what does it mean?
– Ease of building reliable, scalable, secure, transaction & streaming apps
– .bCentral… creating on-line presence
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
Some ranked, important technology
Fortune Bluetooth Voice control of xx XML Peer-to-peer as in
Napster or Gnutella
Network Computing 802.11b Bluetooth Broadband Directory Services Voice over IP IPv6 Wave Div. Multiplex SAN & Fiber Chan. ASP QOS
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
Technologies
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
Moore’s Law
Performance/Price doubles every 18 months
100x per decade Progress in next 18 months
= ALL previous progress– New storage = sum of all past storage– New processing = sum of past processing.
E. coli double ever 20 minutes!
15 years ago
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
Desktop-desktop @ 1 gbps
2x 1GbE3x 1GbE
G8 Sonet
SC99NOCGigaPop
Juniper M40Cisco 12008
WestinGigaPop
Juniper M40
G2 SonetOC12 Sonet
Cisco 1800
G2 SonetOC12 Sonet
Juniper M40 NCSAUW
University of Washington Microsoft
Nortel NetworksNTON
SC99 @ Portland
1 Gbps5x 270 Mbps
HDTV streams= 1 Gbps
OC-48 = 2,488.32 Mbps = G2OC192 = 9,953.28 Mbps = G8
2x 1GbE3x 1GbE
G8 Sonet
SC99NOCGigaPop
Juniper M40Cisco 12008
WestinGigaPop
Juniper M40
G2 SonetOC12 Sonet
Cisco 1800
G2 SonetOC12 Sonet
Juniper M40 NCSAUW
University of Washington Microsoft
Nortel NetworksNTON
SC99 @ Portland
1 Gbps1 Gbps5x 270 Mbps
HDTV streams= 1 Gbps
OC-48 = 2,488.32 Mbps = G2OC192 = 9,953.28 Mbps = G8
http://research.microsoft.com/~gray/papers/Win2K_1Gbps.doc
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
500 mips System On A Chip for 10$
486 now 7$ 233 MHz ARM for 10$ system on a chiphttp://www.cirrus.com/news/products99/news-product14.html AMD/Celeron 266 ~ 30$
In 5 years, today’s leading edge will be– System on chip (cpu, cache, mem ctlr,
multiple IO)– Low cost– Low-power – Have integrated IO
High end is 5 BIPS cpus
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
1 GBps1 GBps
Ubiquitous 10 GBps SANs in 5 years
1Gbps Ethernet are reality now.– Also FiberChannel ,MyriNet, GigaNet,
ServerNet,, ATM,…
10 Gbps x4 WDM deployed now (OC192)
– 3 Tbps WDM working in lab In 5 years, expect 10x,
progress is astonishing Gilder’s law:
Bandwidth grows 3x/year http://www.forbes.com/asap/97/0407/090.htm
5 MBps20 Mbsp
40 MBps
80 MBps
120 MBps120 MBps(1Gbps)(1Gbps)
Bell’s Evolution Of Computer Classes
Technology enables two evolutionary paths:1. constant performance, decreasing cost2. constant price, increasing performance
1.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = .81.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = .81.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .621.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .62
MiniMini
TimeTime
Mainframes (central)Mainframes (central)
PCs (personals)PCs (personals)Lo
g p
rice
Lo
g p
rice
WSsWSs
Handheld…Handheld…AppliancesAppliances
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
Platform evolution: What do they do that’s useful?
How do they communicate?
Region/Region/IntranetIntranet
CampusCampusHome…Home… buildingsbuildings
BodyBody
WorldWorld
ContinentContinent
Everything cyberizable will be Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace and covered in Cyberspace and covered by a hierarchy of computers!by a hierarchy of computers!
Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms
Cars… Cars… phys. nets phys. nets
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
DataData
Cyberspace: one, two or three networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020
TelephonyTelephony
TelevisionTelevision
Or will we just have gateways?
In a decade we can/will have: more powerful personal computers
– processing 10-100x– 4x resolution (2K x 2K) displays to impact paper– Large, wall-sized and watch-sized displays– low cost, storage of one terabyte for personal use
adequate networking????– ubiquitous access = today’s fast LANs– Competitive wireless networking
One chip, networked platforms including light bulbs, cameras everywhere, etc.
Several well-defined platforms that compete with the PC for mind (time) and market sharewatch, pocket, body implant, home
Inevitable, continued cyberization… the challenge… interfacing platforms and people.
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
IP On Everything
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
In body, on body, and around body… how do they evolve?
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Your husband just died, … here’s his black box
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
MedronIc
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Audio, pix, T, P, ECG, location, physiological parameters…1 GB
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
1976: 6 oz. Watch, manual size > watch size
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
Casio GPS Watch
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Steve ManninCyberspaceMIT c1995
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Wearable PCc2000
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
The mobile network: key to personal use
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
Wirelessness and mobility… MMDS & LMDS… very likely non-starters
(bits will come via our installed Cu & new fiber) The crowded 2.4 GHz band
– Portable phones: the first, noisy settlers– 802.11b (11 Mbit Ethernet LAN) homesteading– HomeRF (Intel’s misguided effort at a home LAN) – Bluetooth… see the new world. How can 2,000 companies be
wrong?– 802.11a 50 Mbps LAN (TBD)
GSM & CDMA 2&3 G services…– Bets as the next Internet wave
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
Sony Personal IT Television
•10” Touch screen
•802.11b connect
•TV
•Internet connect
•Picture frame
•32cm x 20cm
•1.5 Kg
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell0
0.2
0.4
0.8
2.0
199719981999200020012002
Circuit data<9.6kbps
HSCSD57.6kbps
GPRS115kbps
EDGE384kbps
UMTS2Mbps
0.1
The evolution of wireless data standards… good news.
Bad news… too many,they lie!
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
GPRS Evolution
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
Internet Industry (circa 1999)Courtesy of Sheridan Forbes
TransportTransportNetwork Hardware/ProtocolsNetwork Hardware/Protocols
Computers & Operating Layer SoftwareComputers & Operating Layer SoftwareApplications & MiddlewareApplications & Middleware
Info
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Mar
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Internet Services$170B*
Infrastructure$171B*
AccessAccessPersonal/Employee DataPersonal/Employee Data
Go
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Content SyndicatorsContent SyndicatorsContent Syndication
$2B+ **
Web HostingWeb Hosting
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
Voice to WEBVoice to WEBBridgeBridge
Web ServerWeb Server
TheTheWebWeb
DataBaseDataBase
PSTNPSTN
The Next ConvergencePOTS connects to the Weba.k.a. Phone-Web Gateways
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
Cyber All: using on body computers to record and recall it all
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
Storing all we’ve read, heard, & seen
Human data-types /hr /day (/4yr) /lifetimeread text, few pictures 200 K 2 -10 M/G 60-300 G
speech text @120wpm 43 K 0.5 M/G 15 Gspeech @1KBps 3.6 M 40 M/G 1.2 T
stills w/voice @100KB 200 K 2 M/G 60 G
video-like 50Kb/s POTS 22 M .25 G/T 25 Tvideo 200Kb/s VHS-lite 90 M 1 G/T 100 T
video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G 20 G/T 1 P
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
Character of Cyber All UseUser
Context / Use(t)
Personal (ambiance,
entertainment, finance, etc.)
Professional (work related)
Archival (historical reference)
Documents, photos and photo albums, music, video memory-aid, entertainment, medical history, progeny
Books, papers, reference documents memory-aid and reference
Working (daily use)
Documents, email, photos, CDs, video communication, ambiance, entertainment, financial records
Documents, emailcontent for profession use to communication
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
My MbytesWhat Files MbytesArchival and working files 4708 729Scanned files with Tiff and PDF 2897 4665GB books (4 encoded) 2027 494Photos Digital 997 158Photos albums, pictures, slides 1430 960Mail 8 236GB Videos (lectures, 8mm) 20 4000CDs stored as mp3 16KBps 150 8640
12237 19882
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
Home Networks
Home IP networkHome IP network
CATVDist
Rec/AMP
CCCC.srv
Monitor
TVsetHDTV
Tuner
CATV Network
Servers:•Hold & deliver audio, photos, video•Encode TV content
Computers:•Control, get content from web, servers
Monitors: HDTV
TV-sets: receive encoded & CATV content
DSL, etc. input
broadcast
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
PCTV a.k.a. MilliBillgUsing PCs to drive large screens e.g. tv sets, Plasma Panels
Gordon BellJim Gemmell
Bay Area Research CenterMicrosoft Research
Copyright 1999 Microsoft Corporation
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
When will we have smart rooms? Life-sized displays for interaction
- and for being anywhere! Cameras that recognize people Mics and Speech based interface Total surround sound One IP net vs. four (data/a/v/phone) Coupled to all power, data, audio, and video/television
networks
Interval Research developed a technology to track individuals in stores!
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
Scalable Systems:
What is central, distributed (scaled) at a central site, or personal?
Scalaing beyond a single facility?
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
High Performance Computing
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Bell Prize and Future Peak Tflops (t)
Petaflops study target
NEC
XMP NCube
CM2
*IBM
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
Modern scalable switches … also hide a supercomputer(converging switching, computing, and storing?) Scale from <1 to 120 Tbps 1 Gbps ethernet switches scale to
10s of Gbps, scaling upward SP2 scales from 1.2 - 40 tera-ops
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
Interesting “cluster” in a cabinet
366 servers per 44U cabinet– Single processor– 2 - 30 GB/computer (24 TBytes)– 2 - 100 Mbps Ethernets
~10x perf*, power, disk, I/O per cabinet ~3x price/perf Network services… Linux based
*42, 2 processors, 84 Ethernet, 3 TBytes
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
GB with NT, Compaq, & HP cluster
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
Top 10 tpc-c
Top two Compaq systems are:Top two Compaq systems are:1.1 & 1.5X faster than IBM SPs;1.1 & 1.5X faster than IBM SPs;1/3 price of IBM1/3 price of IBM1/5 price of SUN1/5 price of SUN
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
Clusters, the Grid, Napster, and Gnutela: going beyond Clusters allow build your own system of any size The Grid has provided facilities, like .NET for
computers to communicate, and share resources (programs & data).
Seti@home: – Scan 30% of the Northern sky every 6 mos. – Get 50 GB/day– 2 million computers– 15 tera-flops– 417 exa-flops delivered over
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
The Grid GRID was/is an exciting concept …
– They can/must work within a community, organization, or project. What binds it?
– “Necessity is the mother of invention.” Taxonomy… interesting vs necessity
– Cycle scavenging and object evaluation (e.g. seti@home, QCD, factoring)
– File distribution/sharing aka IP theft (e.g. Napster, Gnutella)
– Databases &/or programs and experiments(astronomy, genome, NCAR, CERN)
– Workbenches: web workflow chem, bio…– Single, large problem pipeline… e.g. NASA.– Exchanges… many sites operating together– Transparent web access aka load balancing– Facilities managed PCs operating as cluster!
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
.Net… shifting from client to server
Beyond Browsing: Computer can use the web. Human accessible services can be accessed by other computers on the web.
Directory services: e.g. UDDI, Terraserver XML is the core
– Widely accepted open, naming standard– Universal data exchange enable distributed apps– Enables agents
Supports all types of devices
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A natural evolution
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Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
The End
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Things get cheaper: ala Christiansen & Microprocessors
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
Was Digital a Victim of Innovator’s Dilemma?
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
Exponential change of 10X per decade causes real turmoil!100000
10000
1000
100
$K 10
1
0.1
0.01 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
8 MB8 MB
1 MB1 MB
256 KB256 KB
64 KB64 KB
16 KB16 KB
Timeshared Timeshared systemssystems
Single-userSingle-usersystemssystems
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
VAX Planning Model 1975:It was very hard to believe it The model was very good
– 1978 timeshared $250K VAXencost about $8K in 1997!
– Minicomputers stayed at the 100K-1M priceSUN Microsystems exploited this.
Costs declined > 20% – users get more memory than predicted
Single user systems didn’t come down as fast, unless you consider PDAs
VAX ran out of address bits!
Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell
Was Digital a Victim of Innovator’s Dilemma? Absolutely NOT! Otherwise HP, IBM would have failed and
SUN wouldn’t have replaced DEC as the minicomputer supplier.
IBM AS400 (mini), the most profitable computer every built
Miss- understanding the industry Destroying its channels Out of control… billion buck boners