Post on 03-Jan-2016
Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form
• Upon completion of this course, students will be able to:– identify and explain the role of formal
(congressional) institutions and their effect on policy. – to understand and interpret the United States
Constitution and apply it to present policy dilemmas. – have a better understanding of why our national
government works and why the American system of government is unique.
Name Recognition
• To Be Known, is to be known favorably
• Media focuses on known candidates
• Means more money spent elswehere
Who Has Name Recognition
• Incumbents
• Lower Level office holders
• Prominent people in the community
Actors
• From the Love Boat
• From the Dukes of Hazzard
• Stuart Smalley
You need to raise and spend money
• There is no public money available
• It keeps getting more expensive
• Winning a seat
– 1.1 Million in the House– 6.5 Million in the Senate
Incumbency
• It is a great job, and you want to keep it
• Incumbency gives you both money and name recognition
Why Do Incumbents Win?
• Gerrymandering in the House
• Name Recognition in House and Senate– Credit Claiming on bills
Why do incumbents win: Constituency Services
• Helping out the people back home
• Earmarks
• Traditional Service
Why Incumbents Win: Homestyle
• We vote for people like us
• We vote for people we trust
• You have to learn to match the district
You Can’t Beat Somebody with no body
• Weak Challengers
• People Who Spend their own money
• They Run Unopposed
Why Else do you lose
• Redistricting
• National Trends and Coat-tails
• Out of Touch/Too Old
• First Re-election bid
What Creates an Open Seat
• Reapportionment in the House
• Strategic Retirements – Win>Not Run>Lose
• Ambition
Open Seat Elections
• Home of the Real Fights
• Parties and Pacs pour in money
• Parties believe if they can win, they can keep the seat forever
• Strategic Candidates
Factor 2 Issues favored the GOP
• Economy Trumps Everything and GOP has the Edge
• Health Care is a push
• No One Cares about Afghanistan
Factor 3 Mid Year Elections Serve as Referendums on the President
• President Obama is not unpopular (e.g. Bush 2006)
• But he is not popular either (e.g. Clinton 1998)
• The Result is the Dems lose seats
Factor 4: Midyear Elections favor the Outparty
• Turnout decreases among president’s party
• Bandwagon effect is less among independents
• Angry voters more than satisfied voters
The House Results
• GOP Gets– 100% of leaning GOP
Seats (29)– 30 of 42 Tossups– 6 “safe/leaning”
Democratic seats
The Senate Results
• The Democrats Hold
• The Tea Party takes 3 seats, but loses 3 other
In the Senate
• 33 Senate Races
• The Class of “2006”
• The GOP needs 4 seats (51)
• There are 10 Toss-ups