InstituteforSustainableDevelopmentandInternationalRelations41rueduFour– 75006Paris- France

www.iddri.org

CoalTransitions:ResearchandDialogueontheFutureofCoal

ProjectOverviewPresentation

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ThomasSpencerthomas.spencer@iddri.org

Contents

1. Whythisproject?

2. Whoisparticipating?

3. Whatwillwedo?

4. Whatroleforstakeholderengagement?

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1. Why this project? • Coalmakesup28.1%ofglobalprimaryenergydemand

• Anumberofmajorcountriesarehighlydependentoncoal

• Addressingclimatechangeandotherenvironmentalissueswillrequireasignificanttransitioninthecoalsector

• Thereisincreasingrecognitionthatclimatepolicymustinvolvestrategiestogethighcarbonassetsoffline

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1. Why this project? • Forclimatepolicytobepoliticallyandsociallyfeasible,potential

social,politicalandeconomicimpactsmustbemanaged

• Currently,thereisalackofjoinedupandcomprehensiveresearchon:

• Effectivepoliciestodriveandaccompanystructuralcoalsectortransition

• Internationalmarketimplicationsofdifferentcountrytransitions

• Thereisalackofnationalandinternationaldialoguebetweenpolicy-makers,privatesectorandcivilsocietydialogueontheseissues

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1. Why this project?

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2030FossilFuelDemandinINDCscenario,bridge2Cscenario,and2Cscenario

Source:IDDRI,2015

2. Who is participating?

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FundedbytheKRFoundation

Plusadditionalcountrypartners:MelbourneUniversity

IndianInstituteofInformationTechnology

ProjectCoordinatorsIDDRI France

ClimateStrategies UK

CountryTeamsIndianInstituteofManagementAhmedabad

IIMA

TsinghuaUniversity

China

AustralianNationalUniversity

Australia

UniversityofCapeTown ,EnergyResearchCentre

SouthAfrica

GermanInstituteforEconomicResearch

Germany

InstituteforStructuralResearch

Poland

3. What will we do?

• Theprojectconsistsof2interlinkedcomponents:

• Multidisciplinaryresearchatnationalandinternationallevel• Stakeholderengagementanddialogue

• Theresearchagenda

• Quantifiednationalpathwaysforcoaldemand,production,tradeforAustralia,SouthAfrica,India,China,GermanyandPoland

• Quantitativeandqualitativenationalcasestudiesonissuesrelatedtocoalsectortransition

• Areportonlessonslearnedfrompreviousstructuraltransitions• Globalquantitativescenariosforglobalsteamcoaltrade

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3. What will we do? • Countryscenariosfor“(I)NDC”and

“2C”developedusingnationalmodellingtoolsandexpertjudgement

• Acommonreportingtemplatewillensuretransparency,comparabilityand“dialogue”betweenmodels

• GlobalcoalsectormodellingwillbeconductedusingCOAL-MOD

• Severaliterationstoexploreconsistencyandinteractionsbetweennationalandglobalscalecompositepicture

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Countrypathways

Globalcoalsectormodelling

3. What will we do?

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3. What will we do?

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3. What will we do?

• Nationalcasestudies:• Australia:policyapproachesandpoliticaleconomyofcoal

sectortransitionintheLatrobeValley• SouthAfrica:justtransitionforSouthAfrica'scoaleconomy:

optimizingconstrainedresourceextractionandusefordevelopment

• China:strategicapproachestomanagingcoalovercapacityinthepowersector

• Germany:policyapproachesandpoliticaleconomyofcoalsectortransitionintheLausitz region

• India:energysectortransitionoptionstomanagecoaldependence

• Poland:managinglabour marketimpactsofcoalsectortransition

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3. What will we do

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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

GW

Risk ofovercapacity incoal generation – actual investment versusscenariosforChina

Historicalinvestment- Netchange2010-2015

Futureaggregateinvestmentbenchmarks- Netchange2010-2020

Futureaggregateinvestmentbenchmarks- Netchange2020-2030

3. What will we do?

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Nosupport

Compensationorgrandfathering

(backward-looking)

Structuraladjustment

assistance(forward-looking,narrow)

Adaptivesupport(forward-looking,broad)

Consum

ers/h

ouseho

ldsNosuppo

rt

Newpoliciesthatraiseconsumerpricesortaxesarefullyorpartiallyoffsetforallorsome(e.g.low-income)households

Consumers(orasub-set,eg.low-income)aresupportedtoadapttothenewpolicy

-

Workers

Nosupport

Compensationforlosses Workersaregivencashorin-kindassistancetoassistingthemtoretrainintonewjobsand/orrelocate

Workersaregivenstrongsupportnotonlytofindnewjobsbuttomaintainexistingordevelopnewvaluedattachments(ofthekindthatcannoteasilybecompensated),e.g.workofasimilarsocialstanding,inthesameindustryand/orsameplace.

Comm

uniti

es

Nosupport

- - Communitiesinwhichindustrieshavedeclinedaresupported(e.g.throughpublicinvestmentininfrastructure,skills,industrypolicy)

Corporati

ons Nosupport

Newpoliciesthatadverselyaffectthevalueofcorporateassetsareaccompaniedbycompensationforlostassetvalueorexistingassetsare“grandfathered”

Businessesareprovidedcashorin-kindassistancetoadapttonewpolicy

-

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4. What role for stakeholder engagement

• Aprojectwithnotaboos,no“aprioris”,andbasedontrusteddialogue• Stakeholderengagementisatthecoreoftheproject• AllstakeholderinteractionswillbeunderChathamHouseRules

• TheenvironmentalconstraintandtheParisAgreementformanimportantpointofdeparture

• Therewillbe:• Threestakeholdermeetings(likethisone),plusin-country

stakeholderengagement• Aprojectadvisorygroupwillestablished• Alarge-scaleinternationalroundtabletowardstheendoftheproject• Awebsitewillbeupandrunningsoon:www.coaltransitions.org

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