Post on 22-Jul-2018
Co-benefits of reducing air-pollution in ASEAN by 2050
while achieving 2 ℃ global temperature limit target
Tatsuya Hanaoka National Institute for Environmental Studies
International Workshop on Air Quality in AsiaM.O.D. Palace Hotel, Ha Noi, Viet Nam
24-26 June 2014
Topics
1. Introduction of AIM (Asia-pacific Integrated Model )
2. Role of the AIM models in S-12 project
3. Co-benefits of reducing air pollutants emissions in ASEAN while achieving 2 degree global temperature limit target
Toward Low Carbon Society
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AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model)
AIM is an integrated assessment model -to assess mitigation measures to reduce GHG emissions-to assess impact/adaptation to avoid severe climate change damages
Impact/Adaptation Models
Emission Models
【Country】
【Global】
【Enduse model】
【Economic model】
【Account model】
【sequentialdynamics】
【dynamicoptimization】
【Local】
Agriculture
Water
Human health
Simple Climate Model
Other Models
future society
Population Transportation Residential
GHG emissions
temperature
【Global】 【National/Local】
feedback
AIM/Impact[Policy]
Burden share Stock-flow
IPCC/WG3
IPCC/integrated scenario
Macro-economics
IPCC/WG2
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AIM (Asia-pacific Integrated Model) - International research network -
Japan National Institute for Environmental StudiesKyoto UniversityMizuho Information Research Institute
China Energy Research Institute, NDRCInstitute of Geog. Sci. & Nat. Res. Research, CASInstitute of Env. & Sus. Dev. in Agri, CAASGuangzhou Institute of Ene. Conversion, CAS
India Indian Institute of Management, AhmedabadSchool of Planning and Architecture, Bhopal
Korea Seoul National Univ. Korea Environment Institute
Thailand Asian Institute of Tech.Thammasat Univ.King Mongkut’s Univ.
Malaysia Univ. Tech. MalaysiaIndonesia Bogor Agri. Univ.
Bandung Institute of Tech.Austria IIASANetherlands PBLUSA Pacific Northwest National Lab.
Energy Modeling Forum, Stanford Univ.In addition, collaborating with Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh, Nepal, Taiwan, ... 5
Global scale
National scaleTop-down approach
Bottom-up approach
Hybrid approach
AIM family for mitigation analysisOutput
Global emission paths to climate stabilization
AIM/Impact[Policy]
AIM/CGE[Global]
Mitigation potentials and costs curves
AIM/Enduse[Global]
model
AIM/CGE[Country]
Mitigation potentials and costs curves
AIM/Enduse[Country]AIM/Energy Snapshot
AIM/Extended Snapshot
Macro-economic driving forces
Macro-economic driving forces
Industrial production,transportation volume, etc
Element / transition(service demand)
Industrial production,transportation volume, etc
Element / transition(service demand)
AIM/Backcast
AIM/Material
The role of AIM models in the S-12 project
MOEJ-S12: Promotion of climate policies by assessing environmental impacts of SLCP and seeking LLGHG emissions pathways (FY2014-FY2018)
Goal: To develop an integrated evaluation system for LLGHG and SLCP mitigation policy, by interconnecting emission inventory, integrated assessment models, and climate models.
Theme 1: Air quality change event analysis・Analysis on regional AQ change・Development of emission inventory ・Inversion algorithms of emission
estimation
Theme 2: Integrated model and future scenarios・Global socio-economic scenarios・National & regional emissions
scenarios・Urban & household emissions AQ
assessment
Theme 3: SLCP impacts on climate& environment・Impact assessment of aerosols & GHG・Assessment of health, agriculture,
water cycle, sea level rise
SLCP emissions scenariosImproved emission inventory
Feedback of impactsAssessment of activities/policies
Regional EmissionInventories and
Chemical Transfer Model
Integrated Assessment Model (AIM)
Climate and Environment
Model
Chemical transfer model and emission inventory in Asia
AIM/Enduse modelSocio-economical & emissions scenario
Climate model, earth system model Climate change impact & adaptation
Theme 4: Integrated operation system (Toolkits, data archive)
MDG・SDG・Future Earth
StakeholdersPolicy makers
Society
Information transmissionSystem utilization
CCAC, UNFCC, IPCC, EANETProposal and assessment of climate and
air pollution policies
Regional strategy
⇅Global
strategy
Science
Experiment setupDatabase development
Metric definitions
Model improvement
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Challenges of S-12 Theme 2
1. indicating socio-economic scenarios considering climate change and environmental impacts and emissions scenarios of Long-lived GHGs(LLGHG) and Short lived Climate Pollutants (SLCP).【global/national/regional scales】
2. Evaluating co-benefits of LLGHG mitigation measures and SLCP reduction measures, and analyzing regional characteristics in detail, in a manner consistent with long-term global scenarios such as 2℃ target. 【national/regional scales in Asia】
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Sub-theme (3)
Sub-theme (1)
Future scenarios AIM
Global CGEModel
Global EnduseModel
National EnduseModel
Household Model
Local Air Pollution Model
Theme 3Env. & Climate
ImpactsGlobal Emission
Scenarios on LLGHG & SLCP
Theme 1EmissionInventory
Theme 4Synthesis
System
Local Emission Scenarios on LLGHG & SLCP
National Emission Scenarios on LLGHG & SLCP
Air P
ollu
tion
Man
agem
ent
Tech
nolo
gies
Nat
iona
l/Loc
al S
cale
Air
Pollu
tion
Man
agem
ent
Polic
ies &
Eve
nt s
Information for Negotiation to
reduce GHG
Env. & Climate Policy in Japan
Assessment of Env. & ClimatePolicies in Asia Green: relation to other
Yellow: relation to env. p
Improvement of Enduse Model(Local Activities & Pollution Management Technologies)
Assessment of Actions & PoliciesFuture scenarios
Impr
oved
Inve
ntor
y
Assessment of Mitigation Costs & Climate Change Impacts
Global LLGHG & SLCP Emission Scenarios
Future Socio-Economic Scenarios
Env. & Climate Impacts
Socio-economic Scenarios Considering Climate & Env. Impacts
Theme 2: Improvement of Integrated Assessment Model and Quantification of Future Scenarios
model
scenario
research goals
Sub-theme (2)
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the AIM/Enduse[Global] model
- analysis at the global scale-Co-benefits of reducing air pollutants emissions
in ASEAN while achieving 2 degree global temperature limit target
Background information- transition from IPCC AR4 to IPCC AR5 -
Three papers discussed how to achieve 450 CO2eq ppm concentration target which is equivalent to 2℃ global temperature limit above pre-industrial levels
Policy makers in COP15 paid attention to the 2℃ global temperature limit above pre-industrial levels in the Copenhagen Accord in 2009
Various papers analysed the role of negative CO2 emissions for achieving GHG emission pathways consistent with the 2℃ target Biomass energy with CCS (BECCS) is one of the essential technologies
and it is difficult to achieve the 2℃ target without BECCS Energy efficiency improvement plays a key role. But the rate of change
toward the 2℃ target is not in line with the current trends, much faster.
IPCC AR4
IPCC AR5
One of the missing discussions is integrated analyses on ancillary benefits of reducing air pollutants, short-lived climate forces(SLCF), and ozone depleting substances(ODS), combined with GHG mitigations, in the context of sustainable development. 12
Objective of this study
1) Estimating technological mitigation potentials and costs of the Kyoto six GHGs to reduce 50 % global GHG emissions by 2050 for achieving GHG emission pathways consistent with the 2℃ target in the long term.
2) Assessing effects of ancillary benefits of reducing air pollutants, SLCF, ODS by achieving the 2℃ target, and analyzing its attribution by sector and region
This study discusses co-benefits of reducing air-pollution in ASEAN by 2050, while achieving 2 degree temperature limit target
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Characteristics of AIM/Enduse model
◆ Bottom-up type model with detailed technology selection framework with optimization
◆ Recursive dynamic model◆ Assessing technological transition over time ◆ Analyzing effect of policies such as carbon/energy tax,
subsidy, regulation and so on.◆ Target Gas :CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, CFCs,
HCFCs, SO2, NOx, BC, etc◆ Target Sectors : multiple sectors
power generation sector, industry sector, residential sector, commercial sector, transport sector, agriculture sector, municipal solid waste sector, fugitive emissions sector, F-gas sector(each of these can be further disaggregated into sub-sectors)
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Regional classification
JPN (Japan)
AUS (Australia)
NZL (New Zealand)
RUS (Russia)
CHN (China)
IND (India)
IDN (Indonesia)
THA (Thailand)
World 32 regions
USA (United States)
XE15 (Western EU-15)
XE10 (Eastern EU-10)
XE2 (Other EU-2)
XSA (Other South Asia)
XEA (Other East Asia)
XSE (Other South-East Asia)
MYS (Malaysia)
CAN (Canada)
TUR (Turkey)
XEWI (Other Western EU in Annex I)
XEEI (Other Eastern EU in Annex I)
XENI (Other EU)
XCS (Central Asia)
XOC (Other Oceania)
VNM (Viet Nam)
KOR (Korea)
MEX (Mexico)
BRA (Brazil)
ARG (Argentine)
XLM (Other Latin America)
ZAF (South Africa)
XAF (Other Africa)
XME (Middle East)
Annex I OECD
ASEAN 15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050GH
G e
mis
sion
s in
Asia
(Gt C
O2e
q)
Cement production
Value added of 2nd industry
Agricultural production
Fluorocarbon emission
Transport volume (Freight)
Energy service (Residential)
Municipal solid waste generation
Energy service (Commercial)
Transportation Demand Model
Household Lifestyle Model
Municipal Solid Waste Model
Cement Production Model
Building sector
Energy Supply sector
Socio-economicscenario
Agricultural Prod & Trade model
FluorocarbonEmission Model
Agriculture sector
Model DatabaseVariable
Solid waste management sector
Transport volume (Passenger)
Crude steelproduction
Steel Production & Trade Model
Gas fuel
Heat
Liquid fuel
Solid fuel
Hydrogen
Energy balance
Primaryenergy
Energy price
Emission factor
EnergyDB
Nuclear Hydro Geothermal
Solar Wind Biomass
Emissions
Energy mining sector
GasCoal Oil
Bottom-up model (i.e. AIM/Enduse)
Macro Economic
frame Model
Population & Household number
GDP & Sector value added
Macro-economic model
Iron and steelsector
Cementsector
Other industries sector
Transport sector
Fluorocarbon sector
Energy Resource DB
Cost
Lifetime
Technology DB
Efficiency
Diffusion rate
Relations of AIM/Enduse model and element models
Service demand models
Electricity
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Results of future emissions scenarios up to 2050
CO2 emissions in Baseline scenario- from fuel combustion and industry -
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
GtCO
2
EDGER4.2
AIM/Enduse0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050Gt
CO2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
GtCO
2
World Annex I Asia
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
GtCO
2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
GtCO
2
China India
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050G
tCO
2
ASEAN
18
SO2
NOx
SO2 & NOx emissions in Baseline- from fuel combustion and industry -
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
MtN
Ox
EDGER4.2
AIM/Enduse
0
50
100
150
200
250
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
MtS
O2
EDGER4.2AIM/Enduse
World
020406080
100120140160180200
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050M
tSO
2
World
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
MtN
Ox
Asia
Asia
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
MtS
O2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050M
tNO
x
ASEAN
ASEAN
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Mitigation scenario for achieving 2℃ target- carbon price settings -
The current useful references of carbon pricing such as: EU-ETS carbon prices fluctuated due to global economic change, and
varied around 15-30 EURO/tCO2. The price of CER for CDM projects also fluctuated around 10-20
EURO/tCO2. Due to the economic recession, the carbon price has been on the
decrease, around 5 EURO/tCO2.IEA (2010) reported carbon price is at 175 US$/tCO2 in the 450 ppmv
scenario.
Scenario name 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050Reference 0 0 0 0 0
T50 3.75 12.5 25 37.5 50T100 7.5 25 50 75 100T200 15 50 100 150 200T400 30 100 200 300 400
Future global economy-wide carbon prices scenarios (US$/tCO2)
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Global GHG emissions constraint scenario
Sources)Rogelj, J. et al., (2011), UNEP The Emission Gap Report (2012)
Tota
l GHG
em
issi
ons [
GtC
O2
eq]
2020年 2030年2050年
Around 50% reduction
of staying below 2.5 degree compared to pre-industrial levels
of staying below 3 degree compared to pre-industrial levels
of staying below 2 degree compared to pre-industrial levels
Dotted lines show “The median global GHG emissions pathway in the range of global GHG emissions pathwayswith a "likely" probability (greater than 66%)”
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Global GHG emissions pathwaysand comparison with 2 ℃ target pathways
The global GHG emissions pathways by AIM/Enduse[Global] are compared with the emissions pathways consistent with the 2℃ target scenarios. Transitions toward the 2℃ target are not in line with the current trend. T400 scenario can only achieve the 2℃ target scenario. It requires high carbon price around 400 US$/tCO2 in 2050 (T400 scenario),
which is necessary to consider comprehensive strategies to promote mitigation technologies to achieve the maximum potentials of energy savings.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Glo
bal G
HG e
mis
sion
s (G
t CO
2eq)
Reference
T50
T100
T200
T400
2 ℃
2.5 ℃
3 ℃
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GHG emissions pathways in ASEANand comparison with 2 ℃ target pathways
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SO2 & NOx emissions pathways in ASEAN- Cobenefits of implementing CO2 mitigation policies-
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BC & PM emissions pathways in ASEAN- Cobenefits of implementing CO2 mitigation policies-
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Conclusion
Mitigation measures of energy efficiency improvement on the demand side and the shift to less-or non-carbon energies on the supply side play important roles in reducing CO2 emissions as well as increasing cobenefits of air pollutant emissions reductions.
400 US$/tCO2 carbon tax scenario can achieve pathways in the range of 2℃ target scenarios and global emissions of GHGs, SO2 and NOx are largely reduced around 60-90% compared to baseline in 2050.
Energy shift in the energy supply sector largely contribute to reducing GHGs as well as SO2 in ASEAN. However, NOx are derived from transport as well as energy supply, and there are limitations to shifting from fuel vehicles to Hybrid, plug-in Hybrid, electric vehicles in developing countries.
One caveat is that, to focus on cobenefits of reducing air pollutants by introducing GHG mitigation measures, air pollutant removal devices are not considered.
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