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Climate Vulnerable Forum
CLIMATE VULNERABILITY MONITOA GUIDE TO THE COLD CALCULUS OF A HOT PLAN2NDEDITION
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ACUTEW
HIGHU
MOZAMBIQUE2
KEY TO THE MONITOR
CLIMATE
CARBON
COMBINED
CLIMATE + CARBON
DEATHS ECONOMIC COST
ACUTE + ACUTE - SEVERE + SEVERE - HIGH + HIGH - MODERATE L
COUNTRY GROUP
MULTI-DIMENSIONALCAPACITY
HOTSPOTS
Countries estimated to experience among the largesttotal impacts of any country irrespec tive of overall size population or wealth/GDP in at least one of the indicato
ACUTE
SEVERE
HIGH
MODERATE
LOW
INCREASING
STABLE
DECREASING
W
P
U
VULNERABILITY
DEVELOPED
OTHER INDUSTRIALIZED
DEVELOPING COUNTRY HIGH EMITTERS
DEVELOPING COUNTRY LOW EMITTERS
COUNTRY GROUPS
EXTENSIVE
INTERMEDIARY
RESTRICTED
HIGHLY RESTRICTED
MULTI-DIMENSIONAL CAPACITY
4
3
2
1
MULTI-DIMENSIONALVULNERABILITY
CLIMATE
COUNTRY
CHANGE INVULNERABILITYCLIMATE
MULTI-DIMENSIONALVULNERABILITY
CARBON
CHANGE INVULNERABILITYCARBON
2010 2030 2010 2030YEAR YEAR
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COUNTRY GROUPS
List of countries by main Monitor country groups
DEVELOPED (ANNEX II)Australia, Austr ia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France,
Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg,
Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden,
Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States
OTHER INDUSTRIALIZED(ANNEX I OUTSIDE OF ANNEX II)Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia,
Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey,
Ukraine
DEVELOPING COUNTRY HIGH EMITTERS(NON-ANNEX I ABOVE 4 TONS CO
2E 2005)
Algeria, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Azerbaijan, Bahamas,
Bahrain, Belize, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil,
Brunei, Bulgaria, Cambodia, Central Afr ican Republic, Chile, China,
Congo, Cyprus, DR Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Grenanda,
Guatemala, Guinea, Guyana, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kazakhstan,
Kuwait, Laos, Libya, Macedonia, Malaysia, Mexico, Mongolia,
Myanmar, Namibia, North Korea, Oman, Papua New Guinea,
Paraguay, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Seychelles, Singapore, Solomon
Islands, South Africa, South Korea, Suriname, Thailand, Trinidad and
Tobago, Turkmenistan, United Arab Emirates, Uruguay, Uzbekistan,
Venezuela, Zambia
DEVELOPING COUNTRY LOW EMITTERS(NON-ANNEX I BELOW 4 TONS CO
2E 2005)
Afghanistan, Albania, Angola, Armenia, Bangladesh, Barbados,
Benin, Bhutan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cape Verde, Chad, Colombia,
Comoros, Costa Rica, Cuba, Djibouti, Dominica, Dominican Republic,
Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Fiji, Gambia, Georgia,
Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Honduras, India, Jamaica,
Jordan, Kenya, Kiribati, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia,
Madagascar, Malawi, Maldives, Mali, Marshall Islands, Mauritania,
Mauritius, Micronesia, Moldova, Morocco, Mozambique, Nepal,Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Palau, Panama, Peru, Philippines,
Rwanda, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent, Samoa, Sao Tome and Principe,
Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Sudan/South Sudan,
Swaziland, Syria, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Timor-Leste, Togo, Tonga,
Tunisia, Tuvalu, Uganda, Vanuatu, Vietnam, Yemen, Zimbabwe
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CLIMATE VULNERABILITY MONITOA GUIDE TO THE COLD CALCULUS OF A HOT PLAN2
NDEDITION
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DARA and the Climate Vulnerable ForumClimate Vulnerability Monitor 2ndEdition.A Guide to the Cold Calculus of a Hot Planet
This book was set in Heroic Condensed, Franklin Gothic and Uni Sans
Graphic Design: wearebold.es
Icons inspired in The Noun Project collectionPhotographs: Thinkstock/Getty Images
Includes bibliographical references
ISBN: 978-84-616-0567-5
(paper: offset 120 gr., interior; couch semimate 300 gr., cover)
LD: M-31813-2012
First published 2012
Copyright Fundacin DARA Internacional 2012
All rights reser ved. No reproduction, copy or transmissionof this publication may be made without written permission.
Printed and bound in Spain by Estudios Grcos Europeos, S.A.
HEADQUARTERS GENEVA OFFICEFelipe IV, 9 3 Izquierda Internat ional Environment House 2/MIE228014 Madrid Spain 7-9 Chemin de BalexertPhone: +34 91 531 03 72 Chtelaine CH-1219 Geneva SwitzerlandFax: +34 91 522 0039 Phone: +41 22 749 40 30cvm@daraint.org Fax: +41 22 797 40 31www.daraint.org
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DEDICATED TO THE INNOCENT VICTIMS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
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A GREAT DEALhas beenwritten on the influence of theabsorption of the atmosphereupon the climate.. Anotherside of the question that haslong attracted the attention ofphysicists, is this: Is the meantemperature of the groundin any way influenced by thepresence of heat-absorbinggases in the atmosphere? (..)
If the quantity of carbonicacid [CO
2] decreases from 1 to
0.67, the fall of temperatureis nearly the same as theincrease in temperature if thisquantity augments to 1.5. Andto get a new increase of thisorder of magnitude (3-4C), itwill be necessary to alter thequantity of carbonic acid till itreaches a value nearly midwaybetween 2 and 2.5.SVANTE AUGUST ARRHENIUS
April 1896
The London, Edinburgh,and Dublin PhilosophicalMagazine and Journalof Science
FEW OF THOSEfamiliar withthe natural heat exchangesof the atmosphere, whichgo into the making of ourclimates and weather,would be prepared to admitthat the activities of mancould have any influenceupon phenomena of sovast a scale.. I hope toshow that such influenceis not only possible, but itis actually occurring at thepresent time.GUY STEWART CALLENDAR
April 1938
Quarterly Journal of the RoyalMeteorological Society
IF AT THE ENDof thiscentury, measurementsshow that the carbondioxide content ofthe atmosphere hasrisen appreciably and
at the same timethe temperature hascontinued to risethroughout the world, itwill be firmly establishedthat carbon dioxide isan important factor in
causing climatic changeGILBERT NORMAN PLASSMay 1956
American Journal of Physics
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THE EARTHS CLIMATEsystem has demonstrablychanged on both globaland regional scales sincethe pre-industrial era.. Theatmospheric concentrationsof key anthropogenicgreenhouse gases (i.e.,carbon dioxide (CO
2)..)
reached their highestrecorded levels in the 1990s.THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL
PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
September 2001
A HUNDRED YEARSfrom now, lookingback, the only questio
that will appearimportant about thehistorical moment inwhich we now liveis the question ofwhether or not wedid anything to arrest
climate change.THE ECONOMISTDecember 2011
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MARY CHINERY-HESSE, Memberof the Panel of the Wise of theAfrican Union; Chief Advisor tothe Former President of Ghana;Former Deputy Director-Generalof the International LabourOrganization (ILO)
HELEN CLARK, Administrator,United Nations DevelopmentProgramme (UNDP)
JOS MARA FIGUERES, FormerPresident of Costa Rica; Chairmanof the Carbon War Room
ROBERT GLASSER, SecretaryGeneral, CARE International,Geneva
SALEEMUL HUQ, Director,International Institute forEnvironment and Development(IIED), Independent University,Dhaka
YOLANDA KAKABADSE,International President, WWF
ASHOK KHOSLA, President,
International Union forConservation of Nature (IUCN);Chairman of DevelopmentAlternatives, Co-Chair of the UNResources Panel
RICARDO LAGOS, FormerPresident of Chile; FormerPresident of the Club of Madrid
LOREN LEGARDA, Senator ofthe Philippines; UN InternationalStrategy for Disaster Reduction(ISDR) Regional Champion forDisaster Risk Reduction and
Climate Change Adaptation forAsia and the Pacic
MICHAEL MARMOT, Director,International Institute for Societyand Health, University College,London
SIMON MAXWELL, ExecutiveChair, Climate and DevelopmentKnowledge Network (CDKN)
DAVID NABARRO, SpecialRepresentative of the UNSecretary-General for FoodSecurity and Nutrition
ATIQ RAHMAN, Executive Director,Bangladesh Centre for AdvancedStudies (BCAS), Dhaka
TERESA RIBERA, FormerSecretary of State for ClimateChange of Spain
JOHAN ROCKSTRM, ExecutiveDirector, Stockholm EnvironmentInstitute (SEI) and StockholmResilience Centre
JEFFREY SACHS, Director,The Earth Institute, ColumbiaUniversity, New York
HANS JOACHIM SCHELLNHUBER,Founding Director of the PotsdamInstitute for Climate ImpactResearch (PIK)
JAVIER SOLANA, President,ESADE Center for Global Economyand Politics; Distinguished SeniorFellow, Brookings Institution;Chairman, Aspen Institute Espaa
ANDREW STEER, President,World Resources Institute,Washington, D.C.
MARGARETA WAHLSTRM,
United Nations AssistantSecretary-General for DisasterRisk Reduction
MICHAEL ZAMMIT CUTAJAR,Former Executive Secretary,United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)
YASEMIN AYSAN, Former UnderSecretary General, InternationalFederation of Red Cross and RedCrescent Societies (IFRC)
SURUCHI BHADWAL, AssociateDirector, Earth Sciences andClimate Change Division, TheEnergy and Resources Institute(TERI), New Delhi
DIARMID CAMPBELL-LENDRUM,Senior Scientist, Public Health
and Environment, World HealthOrganization (WHO)
MANUEL CARBALLO, ExecutiveDirector, International Centrefor Migration, Health andDevelopment (ICMHD), Geneva
IAN CHRISTOPLOS, Senior ProjectResearcher, Danish Institutefor International Studies (DIIS),Copenhagen
JOSHUA COOPER, Director,Hawaii Institute for Human Rights
MARIANE DIOP KANE, Head of
Forecasting, Agence Nationalede la Mtorologie du Sngal(ANAMS)
SEAN DOOLAN, Climate Change& Environmental GovernanceAdvisor, United KingdomDepartment for InternationalDevelopment (DfID), Ghana
PIERRE ENCONTRE, Chief, SpecialProgrammes, Division for Africa,Least Developed Countriesand Special Programmes,UN Conference on Trade and
Investment (UNCTAD)HANS-MARTIN FSSEL, ProjectManager for Climate Impacts,Vulnerability, and Adaptationat the European EnvironmentAgency (EEA)
TIM GORE, International PolicyAdvisor for Climate Change,Oxfam International AdvocacyOfce, New York
ANNE HAMMILL, SeniorResearcher, Climate Change andEnergy, International Institute foSustainable Development (IISD)Geneva
RANDOLPH KENT, Director,Humanitarian Futures ProgrammKings College, London
TORD KJELLSTROM, SeniorProfessor, Department of PublicHealth and Clinical Medicine,
Umea University; Visiting Fellow,Honorary Professor, AustraliaNational University, Canberra,and University College, London
ISABEL KREISLER, ClimatePolicy Specialist, Environmentand Energy Group, Bureau forDevelopment Policy, Bureaufor Development Policy, UnitedNations Development Programm(UNDP)
JUERGEN KROPP, Head, North-South Research Group, Potsdam
Institute for Climate ImpactResearch (PIK)
ALLAN LAVELL, Coordinator,Programme for Disaster RiskManagement, Secretary GeneraOfce, Latin America SocialScience Faculty (FLASCO), SanJos
MARC LEVY, Deputy Director,Center for International EarthScience Information Network(CIESIN), Earth Institute atColumbia University, New York
FILIPE LCIO, Head of the GlobaFramework for Climate Services,World Meteorological (WMO)
URS LUTERBACHER, Chairman,Environmental Studies Unit,Graduate Institute of Internationaand Development Studies, Genev
COLLABORATORSADVISORYPANEL
PEER REVIEWCOMMITTEE
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ANDREW MASKREY, Coordinator,Global Assessment Report (GAR),UN International Strategy forDisaster Reduction (UNISDR)
BENITO MLLER, Director Energyand Environment, Oxford Institutefor Energy Studies
MICHELE DE NEVERS, VisitingSenior Associate, Center for GlobalDevelopment, Washington, D.C.
MARTIN PARRY, Fellow, GranthamInstitute for Climate Change,Imperial College, London
JAMES ROOP, Climate ChangeAdvisor for Asia and Pacic,Climate Change Branch, AusAID
BEN RAMALINGAM, VisitingFellow, Institute of DevelopmentStudies (IDS) and ResearchAssociate, Overseas DevelopmentInstitute (ODI), London
CARLO SCARAMELLA,Coordinator, Ofce for ClimateChange, Environment and
Disaster Risk Reduction, UNWorld Food Programme (WFP)
MATTHIAS SCHMALE, UnderSecretary General, NationalSociety and KnowledgeDevelopment, InternationalFederation of Red Cross and RedCrescent Societies (IFRC)
HANSJOERG STROHMEYER,Chief, Policy Development andStudies Branch, UN Ofce for theCoordination of HumanitarianAffairs (OCHA)
FARHANA YAMIN, ResearchFellow, Institute of DevelopmentStudies, Brighton
EDITORMatthew McKinnon
PROJECT COORDINATORLuca Fernndez Surez
PRINCIPAL PROJECT ADVIS0RSren Peter Andreasen
LEAD TECHNICAL RESEARCHERSBeatriz Asensio (Coordination)Cristian Conteduca (Modeling)Dominik Hlse (Quantitative)
TECHNICAL ADVIS0RPeter Utzon BergSENIOR AID ADVIS0RMagda Ninaber van Eyben
FIELD STUDIES COORDINATORBeln Paley
COUNTRY STUDY RESEARCHERSNguyen Huong TraNguyen Quang ThanhNguyen Thuy HangEmmanuel Tachie-ObengTran Chung Chau
RESEARCH ASSISTANTS
Daniel Barnes (Coordination)Johanna BarthRachel ClancyAna ChamberlainBosco LlisoAbby MoranRachad NassarJenena OliverAna Rodrguez SecoEmily Schuckert
PUBLICATION MANAGERRebecca B. Moy
COMMUNICATIONS AND VISUALSFiona Guy (Advisor)
Christina SamsonNacho WilhelmiBegoa Yage
GRAPHIC DESIGNERSMariano Sarmiento (Lead)Mara LasaRuth OteroMarta San Marn
COPYEDITINGMorwenna MarshallTim Morris
CO-CHAIRSROSS MOUNTAIN, Director General,DARA
SUFIUR RAHMAN, Director General,Economic Affairs, Ministry of ForeignAffairs, Bangladesh
MEMBERSJAVIER DAZ CARMONA, Ambassadorfor Climate Change and GlobalEnvironmental Affairs, Costa Rica
SALAHUDDIN NOMAN CHOWDHURY,Director, Economic Affairs, Ministryof Foreign Affairs, Bangladesh
MATTHEW MCKINNON, Head ofClimate Vulnerability Initiative, DARA
The Advisory Panel and the Peer Review Committeemembers serve in their personal capacity, providing inputto the Climate Vulnerability Initiative that informs thedevelopment of the Climate Vulnerability Monitor. DARA issolely responsible for the nal content of this report .
STEERINGGROUP
EDITORIAL ANDRESEARCH TEAM
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8IPREFACE
Climate change is already with us. It k ills.It steals livelihoods. And it takes the mostfrom those who have the least. But the costsare largely hidden from our understanding.Inaction on climate change actually takes frous all. Only together can we plot a different
course: one of greater prosperity and well-being.Technical barriers no longer hold back our transition toa low-carbon world, and technological solutions exist tmanage risks. We struggle instead with other barriers.There are polit ical barr iers: while some countries arecommitted to change and making progress, there isstill a lack of conviction among the governments of tomany industrialized and developing nations.Social and cultural barriers also exist: lack ofunderstanding causes popular indifference or evenhostility to sensible change.And nancial barriers mean that only a fraction of theresources needed for low-carbon development and tosupport worst-hit communities are being made availableTo tackle all these barriers, 20 countries highlyvulnerable to climate change came together to formthe Climate Vulnerable Forum.Our countries favour action on climate change. We arefrustrated with the inadequacy of the global responseand a world economy that continues to price carbonirresponsibly. We bear witness to the extremes at theclimate frontlines of today. Despite having contributed thleast to climate change, we are forced, almost unaided,to take costly measures to protect our people and oureconomies. We know the world is rapidly becoming morenot less vulnerable, and that all our fates are tied.
PREFACE
THIS REPORT CHALLENGES A CONVENTIONAL VIEW: THATGLOBAL ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE IS A COST TO SOCIETY.INSTEAD, IT ENLIGHTENS OUR UNDERSTANDING OF HOWTACKLING CLIMATE CHANGE THROUGH COORDINATEDEFFORTS BETWEEN NATIONS WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE
MUCH-NEEDED BENEFITS FOR ALL.
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PREFA
Farmers face more hot days as they set to work.Families are sleeping outside in mosquito-infestedareas because their homes are unbearable in the heatof the night. Roads and buildings on permanentlyfrozen land in the cooler regions are being damaged asmelting sets in. Rivers are drying up, causing transportshocks, while unprecedented oods are devastating otherareas. Salt from rising seas harms fertile land and freshwater supplies. Coastlines erode. Land is submerged.Populations fail to make a living. People move.Pollution also kills. It acidies lakes and oceans,poisons plants and animal life, corrodes infrast ructureand contaminates the air we breathe.We pay for each of these damages in lives, sufferingand dollars. Yet the world has struggled to see how allthese concerns are interlinked. That is why this reporthas sought to tackle our knowledge barriers.With a better understanding of the full array of issuesand the causes behind them, nobody should remainindifferent or inactive.The Climate Vulnerable Forum commissioned thissecond Climate Vulnerability Monitor at its MinisterialMeeting at Dhaka in November 2011. The report wasagain mandated to DARA for independent developmentand was reviewed by an external Advisory Panel andPeer Review Committee comprised of internat ionalauthorities on this subject.Against a struggling world economy, its main ndingsoffer sobering news: climate change is already loweringeconomic output globally and will increasingly holdback growth unless strong action is urgently taken.Its pages seek to move us to act by highlighting the
SHEIKH HASINAPrime Minister of BangladeshJOS MARA FIGUERESTrustee of DARA, Former Presidentof Costa Rica
human plight of an increasingly hotter and morepolluted planet. Severe impacts on livelihoods, hand the worlds poorest g roups speak of fundameinjustices that simply cannot go unaddressed.The report relies on the incredible wealth of somethe most recently published research and scientiknowledge, assimilating literally hundreds of studand bodies of data into a common framework thamakes its collective meaning clear. More researcis plainly needed and will continuously enrich our
understanding, but improving knowledge should na premise to refrain from acting when so muchis at stake.In the past, humanity has prevailed against recogthreats to our security and prosperity. Today therare two wars we must win: the continued ght agpoverty, and the new challenge of climate changeBoth can be tackled simultaneously with the sampolicy framework that would shif t our developmepath to a low-carbon foot ing. Taking action, we clessen the social, economic and environmentaldamages of a carbon-intensive economy.We would create jobs, investment opportunities,new possibilities for international cooperation antechnological deployment to the benet of all.Despite capacity constraints, many Forumgovernments are already embracing the call toaction: Bangladesh has committed never to excethe average per capita emissions of the developicountries. Costa Rica aims to be carbon neutralby 2021. But there are limits to what individualcountries can achieve.Solving the climate challenge requires broadestinternational cooperation. And yet countries stillargue economic barriers to change. This report ainstead that strong measures on climate changereap the most monetary benets for society.Indeed, building global partnerships where all nacan fully participate in the transition to a low-careconomy will lessen costs and heighten the socienvironmental and economic dividends for all. Juas supporting vulnerable communities will ult imaimprove the well-being of society as a whole.Divided, we face declining prosperity and immensuffering. Together, we have the chance to strengglobal welfare and safeguard the fate of the nati
"Many Forum governments are already embracingthe call to action: Bangladesh has committednever to exceed the average per capita emissions
of the developing countries. Costa Rica aims to becarbon neutral by 2021. But there are limits to whatindividual countries can achieve."
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10IACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This report was a project that took on a life almost of itsown. Unrivalled is a word that comes to mind when describingthe energy, interest and dedication of our core partners: donors,advisors, researchers, reviewers, the team within DARA, expertsat Commons Consultants, or the celebrated graphic designers wearebold.es who made the measles you generally love(and less often disprove of) as readers.
We set out to improve the 2010 report and ended up withsomething that struggles to bear a passing resemblance to whatwe thought was a useful contribution back in 2010. Somehow
four maps turned into fty-nine, a methodology note of twenty-ve pages became a tome of well over one hundred that weultimately couldnt print in the book (the reader will nd itonline: www.daraint.org/cvm2). Expert workshops in Accraand Hanoi developed into fully-edged policy exchanges, whiledelegates of the Climate Vulnerable Forum crowded Side Eventrooms in Durban, Bonn and Rio. We hope you all appreciate thenal result and cannot thank you enough for helping us to pullthis unusual new work together.
Some much warranted apologies go to our close families andthose of the core collaborators on this project. Thanks next toLuca Fernndez Surez and the whole team and house in DARA,
all of whom have helped make this report what it is included ofcourse are DARAs Board of Trustees, in particular our keybenefactor Diego Hidalgo, and our Trustee Jos Mara Figueres.
May we also extend our utmost gratitude to friends andcolleagues at Kings Colleges Humanitarian Futures Programmeat the helm of the FOREWARN project, of which this report isone part: Randolph Kent, Hugh Macleman, Jonathan Paz, EmmaVisman and Okey Uzoechina.
We would like to thank the members of our Advisory Panel fortheir generous insight and contributions to this effort over many,many months: Mary Chinery-Hesse, Helen Clark, Jos MaraFigueres, Robert Glasser, Saleemul Huq, Yolanda Kakabadse,Ashok Khosla, Ricardo Lagos, Loren Legarda, Michael Marmot,Simon Maxwell, David Nabarro, Atiq Rahman, Teresa Ribera,Johan Rockstrm, Jeffrey Sachs, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber,Javier Solana, Andrew Steer, Margareta Wahlstrm, and MichaelZammit Cutajar. And also to Jan Eliasson, even though you had totake up a new role part way through the endeavour, we were andwill continue to be most grateful for your encouragementand support.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMEN
The Peer Review Committee continually challenged us andsuggested innovations, adjustments and corrections we neverwould have thought of ourselves. We certainly hope the nalreport meets your high expectations of it: Yasemin Aysan, SuruchiBhadwal, Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, Manuel Carballo, IanChristoplos, Joshua Cooper, Mariane Diop Kane, Sean Doolan,Pierre Encontre, Hans-Martin Fssel, Tim Gore, Anne Hammil,Randolph Kent, Tord Kjellstrom, Isabel Kreisler, Juergen Kropp,Allan Lavell, Marc Levy, Filipe Lcio, Urs Luterbacher, AndrewMaskrey, Benito Mller, Michele de Nevers, Martin Parry, JamesRoop, Ben Ramalingam, Carlo Scaramella, Matthias Schmale,
Hansjoerg Strohmeyer, and Farhana Yamin.
The Government of Bangladesh as Chair of the ClimateVulnerable Forum has not ceased to drive forward the climatecause with energy and dynamism in a truly international spirit.Thank you for your openness to the research teams fresh ideason this topic, and your willingness to explore where they mightlead. Thanks goes in particular to Dr. Dipu Moni, The HonorableForeign Minister of Bangladesh; Dr. Hasan Mahmud, TheHonorable Minister of Environment and Forests of Bangladesh;Ambassador Mohamed Mijarul Quayes, Foreign Secretary ofBangladesh; Mr. Mesbah ul Alam, Secretary of Ministry ofEnvironment and Forests; Ambassador Abdul Hannan, Permanent
Representative to the United Nations Ofce at Geneva; Dr. S.M.Munjurul Khan, Deputy Secretary of Ministry of Environment andForests; Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations,Mr. Rahman Mustazur; and Mr Faiyaz Murshid Kazi of theBangladesh Foreign Ministry. Finally, thanks so much to two ofthe leading doyens of international macro-economic diplomacyin South Asia: Mr. Md. Suur Rahman, Director General and Mr.Salahuddin Noman Chowdhury, Director, each of Economic AffairsWing of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Bangaldesh may youcontinue to think and lead the way forward.
To our donors at AECID, AusAID and Fundacin Biodiversidad:thank you for your many efforts to support this project and yourhelpful assistance in coordinating and realizing the wide-rangingactivities involved. Thank you Juan Ovejero Dohn for looking afterthe team in Hanoi and Vietnam. To the Australian (and Italian)team in Accra, we hope you also enjoyed the experience of thecountry study: Sarah Willis and Azzurra Chiarini.
This report would not have been possible without the analyticalexpertise and dedicated work of Commons Consultants, the mainresearch and production partner of DARA in this effort, a teamled by Sren Peter Andreasen as Principal Advisor to the project
and Peter Utzon Berg as the primary Technical Advisor to theendeavour. Your honed creativity and technical precision allowedthis project to achieve its close to outlandish aims.Mariano Sarmiento, lead designer and his dedicated andtalented team are responsible for all of the extremely helpful ortoo complex graphics in this report, depending on your viewpoint.However, the complexity is all our fault and not Mariano's norhis teams what you see is much, much better than anythingwe would have subjected you to without their help. MorwennaMarshall, thanks once again for being there even at the mostinconvenient moments, and to Tim Morris, our copy editors who
each receive a special vote of thanks.
We particularly owe our thanks to additional scientists andexperts who provided strong guidance and assistance with modelselection of which there are simply too many to list here. You mayhave just thought you were just doing our chief modeller, CristianConteduca, a favour (you were) but your assistance in helping usto track down the knowledge which forms the foundation of thiswork was absolutely fundamental to helping this report makewhat we hope is a meaningful contribution to the debate. AntoniaPraetorius, Sebastian Strempel, YiWei Ng, we thank you.
Many thanks also to the governments of Ghana and Vietnam and
to the UNDP country ofces there, as well as UNDP headquartersin New York, for your most helpful support. In Vietnam, Live&Learn,Hang Nguyen and colleagues were tremendous in supporting ourcountry research, and in Ghana, the Environmental ProtectionAgency-Ghana with expert support from Emmanuel Tachie-Obengdid a highly effective job of facilitating our trip and national andcommunity activities and for which credit is deserved. Mary Chinery-Hesse, thank you so much for welcoming us and taking part.
Finally, many thanks goes to Christer Elfverson, Magda Ninabervan Eyben, Marc Limon and Erik Keus, all of whom went out oftheir way to help see this project achieve its objectives. Thanksadditionally to John Cuddy, Christiana Figueres, William Hare andNicholas Stern for your sage advice, and to the Asia Society andfriends at TckTckTck for your kind support behind the Monitorlaunch.
ROSS MOUNTAINDARA Director General
MATTHEW MCKINNONEditor
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INTRODUCTION 14EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 16FINDINGS AND OBSERVATIONS 24RECOMMENDATIONS 28RESEARCH PROCESS 36
KEY ISSUES 40
A VERY SHORT HISTORY OF CLIMATE SCIENCE 58
THE MONITOR 60
CLIMATE 104ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTERS 106HABITAT CHANGE 124HEALTH IMPACT 154INDUSTRY STRESS 176
COUNTRY STUDIES 202GHANA 204VIETNAM 216
CARBON 228ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTERS 230HABITAT CHANGE 240HEALTH IMPACT 254INDUSTRY STRESS 272
METHODOLOGY 286
MONITOR DATA TABLES 292
PARTNERS 302ABBREVIATIONS 303GLOSSARY 304BIBLIOGRAPHY 308
CONTENTS
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TWO DECADES OF FAILURE TO ACT
DECISIVELY ON CLIMATE CHANGE
HAVE MADE THE EARTH HOTTER
AND MORE POLLUTED.1 There isstill a window of opportunity, fastclosing, to scale back pollution andtame the rising heat. But the worldeconomy is locked onto a differentcourse: fossil fuel consumptionis expected to continue its rapid
growth in the coming decades.2
Major economies not committed tolow-carbon development would needto enact policy changes to alter thisfact. Current frontline stockpilesof hydrocarbons of oil, coal, andgas are multiples of what couldpossibly be consumed this centuryif the climate is to be kept undercontrol, despite being valued as if alland more of these will be burnt.3The cold calculus of a hot planetis that millions of people already
suffer from the failure of the worldeconomy to embark on a low-carbontransition. This report estimates that5 million lives are lost each yeartoday as a result of climate changeand a carbon-based economy,with detailed explanations forwhy this is the case found in therelevant chapters that follow. Inparticular, effects are most severefor the worlds poorest groupswhose struggle against poverty is
worsened.4 Although no country isspared the impact: a depleted ozonelayer for instance also causedby potent greenhouse gases hassignicantly increased the incidenceof skin cancer, above all in thewealthiest of countries. The USwill lose more than 2% of its GDPby 2030 according to this reportsestimates.5
On the basis of t his reportscomprehensive reassessment ofthe incremental costs and benetsof a hotter, more polluted planet,a second cold calculus canalso be made.Climate change is found to havealready set back global developmentby close to 1% of world GDP.This impact is felt, but rarelycounted, in the bottom lines ofcompanies, industries and majoreconomies, and is already playing
a role in determining the wealthor poverty of nations. Inactionon climate change cost LeastDeveloped Countries an average of7% of their GDP for the year 2010 with losses that will greatly increasein the years ahead. Indeed, theexplosive increase in heat expectedover the coming decades will onlylead to a corresponding escalationin these costs, increasingly holdingback growth as emissions go
unabated and efforts to support theworst-affected communities fail tomeet the challenges at hand.The losses incurred already exceedby a signicant margin any costsof reducing emissions in line witha low-carbon transition.6 Actionon climate change would thereforealready reap monetary benetsfor the world, both globally and for
major economies like the US, Chinaand India.So the second cold, bottom-linecalculus of a hot planet is thattackling climate change is alreadysensible in economic termstoday. The step will also minimizewidespread illness and mortalitythat inaction causes. And it wouldbolster the ght against povertywhile helping to safeguard a naturalworld in steep decline.7The ndings of this report differ
from previous studies that largelyunderstand climate change as a netbenet or minimal cost to societytoday (or prior to mid-century), andwhich inform current economicdecision-making on climate change,making it easier for governments toavoid serious action.8While the methods of this studyresemble previous research, threekey distinctions in the approach haveled to fundamentally different results.
First, this report draws on the mostrecent science and research intodifferent climate-related impacts,taking advantage of the incrediblegrowth in understanding on thisissue since the 1990s era researchthat provides the basis of almost alother studies of this kind.9
Second, building on freshly availabresearch, a number of new effects
are considered here. Chief amongthese is the impact that increasingheat has on labour productivity, orthe fact that workers (especiallyoutdoors) produce less in a givenhour when it is very hot. Fractionalincreases in global temperature cantranslate into tens of additional hotdays with each passing decade.10
Labour productivity is estimated toresult in the largest cost to the worleconomy of any effects analysedin this report. Other effects newly
considered here include the thawinof permafrost in cold regions andthe accelerated depreciation ofinfrastructure that results as frozenland shifts when it thaws.11
Finally, this report also considers afull range of the closely inter-linkedcosts and benets of the carboneconomy, independent of anyclimate change impacts. Whenaccounting for the large-scalecosts imposed by carbon-intensivehazards to human health, the
environment and economic sectorssuch as the sheries industry, the fucosts of inaction are laid bare.Human society and the naturalworld, it turns out, are fundamentalsusceptible to changes in ambientheat. Civilization itself emergedduring an age subsequent to the lasglacial era that was characterizedby a uniquely stable and mild
14IINTRODUCTION
A GUIDE TO THE COLD CALCULUS
OF A HOT PLANET
INTRO-
DUCTION
THE CLIMATE VULNERABLE FORUMThe Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) is an international cooperation group for coordination, advocacy and knowledge-building among countries that face significant insecurity due to climate change. The Forum has distinguished itselfthrough a determination to catalyze more effective and broad-based action for tackling the global climate challenge,internationally and nationally. Founded in 2009 by the Maldives, it now includes 20 governments and is a major foreignpolicy initiative of its current chair, Bangladesh. The Climate Vulnerability Monitors second edition was commissionedat the November 2011 Ministerial Meeting of the Forum at Dhaka, Bangladesh.
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INTRODUCTIO
climate. The balance is delicate:a few degrees cooler and much ofthe northern hemisphere freezes.12Several degrees hotter and partsof the planet exceed the thermalmaximum at which human beingscan exist outdoors.13
The world is just one degreeCelsius (1.8 F) hotter than priorto industrialization the principalcause of climate change.14But smallchanges count: Ghana for instance,a focus country in this report, haswarmed faster than others. Injust 50 years, the number of veryhot days in Ghana has increasedby 50 in number.15 Inaction onclimate change would see Ghanaexperience three to ve timesthat increase in heat this century
alone.16
It goes almost without sayingthat changes of this proportionhave profound effects for humanbeings, the natural environmentand the market economy. Releasinggigatonnes of carbon dioxide andother pollutants and gases into theatmosphere every year is neithera safe, sound nor healthy practicewhen cleaner, safer and moreenvironmentally sound alternativesso readily exist. Low-carbon energy
solutions such as wind, solar,tidal or geothermal power involve10 to 100 times less negativeexternalities than carbon-intensivealternatives.17Even for the sceptically minded,the argument for switching to safer,less damaging energy sources canbe justied on account of the heavycosts of the prevailing carbon-intensive means.The Climate Vulnerability Monitor(hereafter: the Monitor) was
commissioned by the ClimateVulnerable Forum, an internationalcooperation group of climate-insecure countries, and mandatedto DARA as an independent globalstudy into precisely these effects.As its name indicates, the reportserves to monitor the evolution ofchanges related to the climate asthey are already being felt around
the world. Its role is to shed light onhow society experiences inactionon the climate crisis today in orderthat the insight might assist inenhancing the contemporary globalresponse to this most serious ofsocietal concerns. The study has
benetted from the input of wide-ranging external advisory bodiesand eld research undertaken inGhana and Vietnam.Governments like those of theClimate Vulnerable Forum arealready allocating signicanttaxpayer funds to deal withthe local effects of climatechange as they are taking hold.Governments worldwide areweighing macroeconomic energyand environmental policies, from
infrastructure incentives to low-carbon regulation, nuclear energyreliance, or the exploitation ofhazardous unconventional fuelreserves. In doing so, decisionsare being made to allocate highlyspecic sums of money, human andintellectual capacities, and otherresources of all kinds.The Monitor helps to inform thesedecisions by presenting a snapshotof what current knowledge onclimate change issues in their
aggregate can reasonably beassumed to imply for the world. Theanalysis includes monetary, humanand ecological estimations of theramications of inaction on climatechange. These estimations arethe result of this specic researcheffort and provide a reference ofinterest when considering whatsocietal benets might result fromdifferent policy strategies. Theexercise enables the comparisonof costs with benets in order to
judge the overall merits of differentendeavours.The reports structure has threemain parts. The front matter ofthe report provides an executivesummary, context to and details ofthis study, as well as an overviewof key ndings and a seriesof detailed recommendationstargeted at specic groups. The
Monitor itself is then presented,with the results of the assessmentprovided for every country andeach of the different indicatorsused detailed one-by-one with keyinformation provided each timeat the country level, for different
groups and overall. Finally, anumber of special focus sectionsare also contained in this report,including independent chapterson the country-based researchundertaken in Ghana and Vietnam.It is the hope that this report willspur debate and awareness ofthe double-sided cold calculus ofaction versus inaction on climatechange with which the world nowdesperately struggles.The choice for society is critical but
hardly difcult if the externalitiesof inaction on climate changehave indeed been underestimatedby the world economy. Business-as-usual impacts would for thiscentury be multiples of any costsassociated with a transition to alow-carbon economy and implyunthinkable human suffering.All but the rmest responsesleave the door wide open tocatastrophic risks and threats tothe planets ability to support life,
none of which even enter into theMonitors assessment of costs.According to the InternationalEnergy Agency, just ve yearsremain for the worlds majoreconomies to enact structuraleconomic transformations inorder to break out of a dead endbusiness-as-usual trap. If not,planned investments in high-carboninfrastructure would from 2017 ruleout keeping the global temperaturerise below the internationally agreed
on level of 2 Celsius (3.6 F).18Technological barriers no longerhold back the transition. Prolongingchange only increases costs.Firm, urgent and internationallycooperative action heightensbenets for all. The best wayforward is quite obviously clear.
DARAFounded in 2003, DARA is anindependent organisationheadquartered in Madrid, Spain,committed to improving the
quality and effectiveness of aidvulnerable populations sufferingfrom conflict, disasters and climchange. DARA was mandated bythe Climate Vulnerable Forum asindependent developer of theClimate Vulnerability Monitor in first and second editions.
1The UN Framework Convention on ClimaChange was signed in 1992 (UNFCCC, 192 US EIA, 2011; IEA, 20113 BP, 2011; US EIA, 2011; CTI, 20114UNDP, 20075 Martens, 1998; UNEP, 20026For mitigation costs, see: Edenhofer et 2010 and IPCC, 2012b7 Butchart et al., 2010; Crutzen, 20108Tol, 2011; Nordhaus, 20119Tol, 2011; Exceptions include: NordhauRehdanz and Maddison, 200510Kjellstrom et al., 200911Nelson et al., 200212Petit et al., 199913Sherwood and Huber, 201014IPCC, 2007a15McSweeney et al., 2012: "A 'Hot' day onight is dened by the temperature excee10% of days or nights in the current climathat region and season."16 Ibid17IPCC, 2012a18IAE, 2011
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EXECUTIVE SUMMA
This report estimates that c limate change causes400,000 deaths on average each year today, mainlydue to hunger and communicable diseases thataffect above all children in developing countries.Our present carbon-intensive energy system andrelated activities cause an estimated 4.5 milliondeaths each year linked to air pollution, hazardousoccupations and cancer.
Climate change caused economic losses estimatedclose to 1% of global GDP for the year 2010, or 700billion dollars (2010 PPP). The carbon-intensiveeconomy cost the world another 0.7% of GDP in thatyear, independent of any climate change losses.Together, carbon economy- and climate change-related losses amounted to over 1.2 trillion dollarsin 2010.The wor ld is already commit ted to a subs tantialincrease in global temperatures at least another0.5 C (1 F) due to a combination of the inertia of
the worlds oceans, the slow response of the carboncycle to reduced CO
2emission and limitations
on how fast emissions can actually be reduced.1The world economy therefore faces an increase inpressures that are estimated to lead to more than adoubling in the costs of climate change by 2030 toan estimated 2.5% of global GDP. Carbon economycosts also increase over this same period so that
global GDP in 2030 is estimated to be well over3% lower than it would have been in the absence ofclimate change and harmful carbon-intensive energypractices.Continuing todays patterns of carbon-intensiveenergy use is estimated, together with climatechange, to cause 6 million deaths per year by 2030,close to 700,000 of which would be due to climatechange. This implies that a combined climate-carboncrisis is estimated to claim 100 million lives betweennow and the end of the next decade. A signicant
TECHNICAL SUMMThe Monitor presents a ne
original analysis, synthesiz
the latest research and sc
information on the global i
including benets and lo
of climate change and th
carbon economy in econom
environmental and health
Climate change already ca
400,000 deaths each year
average. The present carbo
intensive economy moreov
is linked to 4.5 million dea
worldwide each year. Clima
change to date and the pre
carbon economy are estim
to have already lowered
global output by 1.6% of w
GDP or by around 1.2 trillio
dollars (2010 PPP). Losses
expected to increase rapid
reaching 6 million deaths a
3.2% of GDP in net averag
global losses by 2030. If
emissions continue to incr
unabated in a business-as
fashion (similar to the new
IPCC RCP8.5 scenario), ye
average global losses to w
output could exceed 10%
global GDP before the end
the century, with damages
accelerating throughout th
century. The costs of clima
change and the carbon eco
are already signicantly hi
than the estimated costs o
shifting the world economy
a low-carbon footing aro
0.5% of GDP for the curren
decade, although increasin
subsequent decades.1
This report and scientic
literature imply adaptation
NUMBER OF DEATHS2010 2030
Climate
Diarrheal Infections 85,000 150,000
Heat & Cold Illnesses 35,000 35,000
Hunger 225,000 380,000
Malaria & Vector Borne Diseases 20,000 20,000
Meningitis 30,000 40,000
Environmental Disasters 5,000 7,000
Carbon
Air Pollution 1,400,000 2,100,000
Indoor Smoke 3,100,000 3,100,000
Occupational Hazards 55,000 80,000
Skin Cancer 20,000 45,000
World 4,975,000 5,957,000
OVERALL COSTSLosses 2010,Bln PPP
corrected USD
Losses 2010,% of GDP
Net Losses,% of GDP 2010
Net Losses,% of GDP 2030
Climate 696 0.9% 0.8% 2.1%
Carbon 542 0.7% 0.7% 1.2%
World 1,238 1.7% 1.6% 3.2%
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18IEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
share of the global population would be directlyaffected by inaction on climate change.Global gures mask enormous costs that will, inparticular, hit developing countries and above all theworlds poorest groups. Least Developed Countries(LDCs) facedon averagein excess of 7% of forgoneGDP in 2010 due to climate change and the carboneconomy, as all faced inequitable access to energyand sustainable development.Over 90% of mortality assessed in this report occurs
in developing countries only more than 98% in thecase of climate change.Of all these losses, it is the worlds poorestcommunities within lower and middle-incomecountries that are most exposed. Losses of incomeamong these groups is already extreme. The wor ldsprincipal objectives for poverty reduction, theMillennium Development Goals (MDGs), are thereforeunder comprehensive pressures, in particular as aresult of climate change.The impact for rural and coastal communities inthe lowest-income settings implies serious threatsfor food security and extreme poverty (goal 1of 8), child health and the ability of children toattend school (goals 2 and 4), maternal healthand womens development (goals 3 and 5), theprevalence of infectious diseases (goal 6) and,through water, sheries and biodiversity impacts,environmental sustainability (goal 7). Furthermore,in a difcult scal environment, the advent ofclimate change has pressured governments to divertOfcial Development Assistance (ODA) funds fromother development commitments and activities inan attempt to provide support for climate changeconcerns, including to a marginal degree, forhelping vulnerable communities adapt to climatechange. The Green Climate Fund, agreed uponin incrementally greater detail at the successiveinternational climate talks at Copenhagen, Cancnand Durban, faces an economic environment ofdeclining ODA tied to acute scal crises acrossa host of the worlds wealthiest economies (see:climate nance). These developments haveultimately compromised the global partnershipfor development (goal 8). Lag areas towards MDGachievement also align very closely with the most
pronounced vulnerabilities resulting from climatechange: sub-Saharan Africa, small island developingstates, and South Asia in par ticular.Poverty reduction effor ts are in peril as the potentialtemperature increase the world is already committedto has only begun to be realized, and the worldsmajor economies are in no way spared. The UnitedStates, China and India in particular are expectedto incur enormous losses that in 2030 for thesethree countries alone will collectively total 2.5 trillion
dollars in economic costs and over 3 million deathsper year, or half of all mortality the majority in Indiaand China.The whole world is af fected by these comprehensiveconcerns: 250 million people face the pressuresof sea-level rise; 30 million people are affectedby more extreme weather, especially ooding;25 million people are affected by permafrostthawing; and 5 million people are pressured bydesertication. The pressures that these combinedstresses put on af fected communities are immenseand force or s timulate the movement of populations.As is highlighted in the Ghana country study in thisreport, they can also fuel violence and an erosion ofthe social and economic fabric of communities.The impact of climate change on Labour Productivit yis assessed here as the most substantial economicloss facing the world as a result of climate change. Alarge proportion of the global workforce is exposedto the incessant increase in heat, with the number ofvery hot days and nights increasing in many placesby 10 days a decade.2Developing countries, andespecially the lowest-income communities, are highlyvulnerable to these effects because of geographicallocation northern countries like Scandinavia, it isassumed, benetfrom improved labour productivitydue to warmer weather but also because theirlabour forces have the highest proportion of non-climate controlled occupational environments.3Global productivity in labour is surging due totechnological advances and a shift of emphasis fromagricultural activities to an industrial and servicesector focus for most developing countries, amongother key developments.4Climate change, however,holds back the full extent of productivit y gainsthe world would otherwise enjoy.5In this way, the
to be at least 150 billion dollar
per year today for developing
countries, rising to a minimum
of more than 1 tr illion dollars
per year by 2030. These costs
are, however, considerably
lower than costs of damages to
developing countries estimated
here, so adapting to climate
change is very likely a cost-
effective investment in almost
all cases and should be centra
to any climate change policy.
Beyond adaptation, this report
also emphasizes the urgency
of mitigating key risks: tackling
food security, indoor res/
smoke, air pollution and other
health issues such as diarrhea
illnesses, malaria and meningi
that are all urgent priorities
for lessening the extent of the
human toll of this crisis.
With costs due both to
unabated climate change
and the carbon economy
expected to rise rapidly over
the course of this century,
tackling climate change by
reducing emissions yields net
benets to the world economy
in monetary terms amountin
to around a 1% higher GDP
for the entirety of the 21st
century (net present value at
a 3% discount rate). World
net benets from action on
climate change are insensitive
to discount rates from 0.1%
to 20% (the highest tested).
Even the most ambitious
reductions in emissions aime
at holding warming below 2C
(e.g. 400ppm CO2e/IPCC AR5
RCP2.6 scenario) generates
economic benets for the
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EXECUTIVE SUMMA
costs of climate change are hidden, which helps toexplain in part how their full extent may have beenmissed. Even so, not all have benetted from fastexpanding labour productivity: labour productivity isa core indicator for MDG 1 (on extreme povert y andhunger), for instance, where little progress has been
registered in many developing regions of the world,in particular for sub-Saharan Africa and the Pacic.6Not one country is invulnerableto the combinedeffects of climate change and the carbon economy.Inaction on climate change penalizes every countryin the world, just as all are set to gain from action
world economy after account
for the costs of reducing emis
(mitigation costs). Limiting wa
to this level would limit huma
territorial and ecological dam
as well as other concerns, su
climate-induced forced move
of human populations.
Over 98% of all climate change
mortality and over 90% of all c
economy related mortality is in
developing countries: between
and 90% of all economic costs
are projected to fall on develop
countries. The most extreme e
of climate change are estimate
to be felt by the Least Develope
Countries, with average GDP lo
8% in 2030. With respect to ca
economy effects, inequitable a
to sustainable development se
Least Developed Countries aga
incurring the highest relative lo
at over 3% of GDP, while betwe
two thirds and three quarters o
carbon economy costs are bor
developing countries.
When the costs of climate cha
and the carbon economy esti
here are combined, not one c
in the world is left unharmed.
terms of regional incentives t
tackle climate change, every
is estimated to experience ne
economic benets from actio
climate change even for the h
levels of action.
The Monitor only analyses
incremental impacts as a res
climate change, or changes in
frequency of well-known stoch
events, such as oods and
landslides. Not assessed here
any way are potential catastro
impacts that could occur due
more rapid climate change fu
CLIMATE
CARBON
Acute Severe High Moderate Low
MULTI-DIMENSIONAL VULNERABILITY
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20IEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
on climate change. Moreover, the vulnerability ofthe world is shifting with every passing decade.Countries once resilient to marginal weather effectsincreasingly realize susceptibilities to a changedclimate as the increase in heat and associatedeffects continue to reach new extremes.Some quite serious damage is now unavoidable,but certain losses can still be reduced in the shortterm. In particular, human costs can be transferredto economic costs. This can be achieved through
programmes aimed at reducing rural poverty at theorigin of hunger deaths and many communicablediseases aficting the worlds poorest groups, withrisks that worsen with climate change. Or it can beachieved by ensuring clean air regulations, saferworking conditions and modern energy options forpeople at risk due to carbon-intensive forms of energy.All these measures will save lives but cost money.Economic losses themselves can also be lessened. Amajor recent review of humanitarian assistance worknoted that Mozambique had requested 3 milliondollars from the international community for oodpreparations. That sum went unsecured, and 100million dollars was subsequently spent on emergencyood response.7Investment in agriculture mightalso be cost-effective if the costs of supportingupgraded farming were to generate more benets (inproductivity, output) than the initial outlay.8
There are, however, limit s to the abili ty ofpopulations to adapt. The oceans can hardly berefrigerated against marine stresses.9Desertencroachment can be prevented but rarely reversed,and if so, generally at great expense.10It might bepossible to protect a beach, but concrete polderscould well be to the detriment of an areas authenticcharm and so to the value of propert ies.A low-carbon, renewable economy of hydro, wind,solar, geothermal, tidal and other innovative sources of
energy now competes with the most carbon-intensiveforms of power generation in the open market, wherethey constitute around 10% of the global energy mixtoday.11Shifting the balance in favour of low-carbonenergy has been estimated to cost approximately 0.5%or less of GDP for the current decade.12
The carbon economy is largely responsible forthe incredible growth in overall wealth societyhas amassed over the last 200 years, although,according to the World Bank, 1.3 billion peoplecontinue to remain trapped in dire poverty.13Regardless, an economic system developed tosupport a global population of 1 or 2 billion peoplein the 19thcentury is ill suited to a global populationin excess of 7 billion and growing.14
The climate challenge runs in parallel to other keyglobal developments: a growing world population,a major propensity to urbanization, and structural
by feedbacks such as a release
of Arctic methane deposits, more
rapid sea-level rise that could resu
from the disintegration of the Wes
Antarctic Ice Sheet or large-scale
climatic disruptions such as the
collapse of ocean circulation
mechanisms, all of which are
understood to pose signicantly
larger human, economic and
ecological risks than anything
portrayed here. The possibilities
of these events are by no means
ruled out, with risks increasing
substantially with warming.2Other
economists have therefore factore
such risks into their economic
analysis to a degree.3
Only with the deep and sustained
emissions reductions spelled out
in the lowest of the new IPCC RCP
2.6 scenario is there a reasonable
chance (comfortably over 50%) of
not exceeding the internationally
accepted safety temperature
threshold of 2C global mean
warming above preindustrial.4Given
the clear human, ecological and,
REGIONAL COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS, 2010-2100** PERCENTAGE OF GLOBAL GDP (NOMINAL), NET PRESENT VALUE AT 3% DISCOUNT RATEClimate + Carbon Costs Highest Action High Action Moderate Action Net Benet
RegionNo
Action
Highestaction(400ppm)
Highaction(450ppm)
Moderateaction(550ppm)
Avoidedcosts*
Mitigationcosts
Avoidedcosts*
Mitigationcosts
Avoidedcosts*
Mitigationcosts
Highestaction
HighAction
Moderataction
USA 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 1.5% 2.0% 1.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0%Japan 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Russia 4.5% 1.5% 1.5% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
China 4.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.0% 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0%
India 11.0% 5.0% 5.5% 6.5% 6.0% 3.0% 5.5% 2.0% 4.5% 0.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%
EU27 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
ROW 8.5% 3.5% 3.5% 4.5% 5.5% 2.0% 5.0% 1.0% 4.5% 0.5% 3.5% 4.0% 3.5%
World*** 4.0% 1.5% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
*Avoided costs: No action (A1B +8.5 ) minus reduced ppm scenario (400 ppm C02e: RCP2.6; 450 ppm: RCP2.9; 550 ppm: SRES B1)** Discounted (3%) sum of costs and GDP mitigation costs from Edenhofer et al., 2010 (regional: Remind + Poles)*** Median value of all 5 scenarios (Edenhofer et al., 2010)
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EXECUTIVE SUMMA
shifts occurr ing in economies around the world.All of these tendencies most pronounced indeveloping countries, in part icular the process ofindustrialization now spreading more and morewidely15 can worsen or attenuate vulnerabilities toclimate change or the carbon economy.In order to understand the fuller implications of thisstudy and to make its ndings comparable withprevious works that take on longer-term perspectives,the costs of climate change and the carbon economywere also estimated for the period up until 2100. Onthis basis, business-as-usual development could seethe costs of inaction exceeding 10% of global GDP inlosses prior to 2100.Reducing emissions results in net benets for societyin every case because the costs of a low-carbontransition are more than outweighed by averted lossesdue to climate change and the carbon economy.In the global context, the highest level of emissionreductions results in similar global benets tolower levels of action. However, the highest ac tionsees fewer negative impacts on society fromhuman health to biodiversity and for the worldsoceans but requires slightly greater investmentsin low-emission forms of energ y. Less ambitiousaction means accepting larger scales of human andecological impacts.The regional analysis of cost s and benets
differs little in fundamental terms from the globalanalysis: all regions benet from climate act ion ineconomic terms. Most regions nd optimal climateaction in the high-action scenario. The highestaction to reduce emissions also limits the risksof crossing tipping points leading to large-scaleclimate disruptions.16Less ambitious action onclimate change does not: moderate action onclimate change has a high chance of exceeding theaccepted international temperature goal of holdingwarming below 2 C (3.6 F) above pre-industr iallevels.17The most vulnerable countries have calledfor warming to be limited below 1.5 C abovepre-industrial levels as they believe 2 C is far toodamaging and a risk to their survival.Neither should the risks of catastrophic impacts bediscarded as heresy: new research has highlightedgreat risks associated with heat, as opposed toocean-related immersion of countries, with heatrisks concerning far greater shares of the worldeconomy and its population. In particular, at certainlevels of high-end warming, large areas of the planetwould progressively begin to exceed the thermalmaximum at which human beings are able to surviveoutdoors.18The possibilities of very rapid climatechange are not implausible or ruled out by climatechange models, especially as the planet warmsbeyond the 2 degrees Celsius temperature threshold
ultimately, economic advantag
aiming for a highest-action sce
this reports ndings imply tha
the highest action targets wou
reap the most benets for the
world. Therefore, the highest-a
scenario is recommended to p
makers as the preferred target
enhancing and safeguarding g
prosperity. Mainstream econo
modelling shows that this tran
is technologically and econom
feasible but that action is need
now to get onto this pathway.5
International cooperation will c
be central to ensuring that the
of the transition are maintaine
the lowest most efcient level a
that the transition yields the h
co-benets.6
ACTION VERSUS INACTION OVER THE 21STCENTURYNPV OF GLOBAL CLIMATE/CARBON COSTS AND MITIGATION COSTS RELATIVE TO GDP(NOMINAL 2010-2100, 3% DISCOUNT RATE)
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0
MITIGATION COST CARBON COST CLIMATE COST
NO ACTIONACTION
1.1%
0.4%
1.8%
1.3%
2.1%
21STCENTURY COSTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION, INACTION AND MITIGATION8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
NO ACTION ACTION MITIGATION
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 20802060 20902070 2100
1See: Edenhofer et al., 2010; IPCC, 20122Weitzman, 2007; Hare in Mastny, 20093For example: Hope, 2006; Stern, 20064Pope et al., 20105For an overview of some leadingmitigation scenarios, see: Edenhofer etal., 2010; UNEP, 2011; IPCC, 2012a
6For example the economic benetsof cross-border emission reductioncooperat ion: De Cian and Tavoni, 2010
PERCENTAGE (%) OF NOMINAL GDP NON-DISCOUNTED
Action equals 450 ppm (RCP 2.9) No action equals mid-point of 2 non-stabilization scenarios (RCP 8.5 and SRES A1B)
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22IEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
the international community has set for itself.19Ofparticular long-term concern are 1500 gigatonnes ofCO
2(GtCO
2) of methane stored in frozen sediments
in the East-Siberian Sea at depths of less than 40to 50 metres.20This represents three times theamount of CO
2that could be released over much of
this century if the 2 degrees target is to be kept.21Asthe Arctic sea warms due to climate change, thesesediments are thawing and methane is already beingvisibly released at rates that currently exceed the
total amount of methane emitted through naturalprocesses over the entirety of the worlds oceans.22While all policy pathways for reducing emissionshave similar net benets in economic terms, thehighest-action route would clearly reap the greatesthuman, societal, economic and environmentalbenets, since it would ensure the greatest chancesof avoiding climate-triggered catast rophe and wouldminimize the human, social and environmentalimpacts of a hotter planet. Therefore, the coldcalculus of a hot planet implies the most ambitious
action on climate change is the savviest choice bothin monetary, humanitarian and environmental terms.The highest-act ion approach is the pathway that theanalysis in this report most supports.The world risks carbon lock-in due to high-intensitycarbon infrastructure plans still moving forward inthe near term, so the shift in focus to a low-carbontransition should likely occur prior to 2017 andcontinue aggressively thereafter.23Several majoreconomies will need to adjust and enact important
domestic policy and legislative initiatives in orderto make this a reality. Whatever the case, actionon climate change that seeks out internationalpartnership is most likely to further lessen the costsof a low-carbon transition and expand the benets ofthis transition for all concerned. This report documentsin part the potential benets of avoided impacts ofclimate change in addition to the potential co-benetsof emission reductions that are targeted at keyeconomic, health and environmental concerns.24
CLIMATE+CARBON
2030
ACUTE
2010
2030
SEVERE
2010
2030
HIGH
2010
2030
MODERATE
2010
2030
LOW
2010
54
21
31
27
38
59
55
73
6
4
CLIMATE
2030
ACUTE
2010
2030
SEVERE
2010
2030
HIGH
2010
2030
MODERATE
2010
2030
LOW
2010
67
20
21
38
20
24
31
44
45
58
1Hansen et al., 20052Kjellstrom et al., 2009a; McSweeneyet al., 2012
3ILO LABORSTA, 20124Storm and Naastepad, 2009; Wacker et al.,2006; Restuccia, et al., 2004; Storm andNaastepad, 2009; McMillan and Rodrik,2012
5Kjellstrom et al., 2009a-b6UN, 20127Ashdown et al., 20118Parry et al., 2009; EACC, 20109Cheung et al., 201010Puigdefaabregas, 199811
US EIA, 201112Edenhofer et al., 2010; IPCC, 2012b13Chen and Ravallion, 201214World Population Prospects/UN DESA, 201115OECD, 2012; IMF WEO, 2012; World
Population Prospects/UN DESA, 201116Pope et al., 201017UNFCCC, 200918Sherwood and Huber, 201019Wietzman, 200720Shakhova et al., 200821Meinshausen et al., 200922Shakhova et al., 2008 and 201023IAE, 2011; UNEP, 201124De Cian and Tavoni, 2010
= 5 countries (rounded)
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EXECUTIVE SUMMAR
DROUGHT 18 4 4 * * 2 1 * 4 11 3
FLOODS & LANDSLIDES 94 10 10 * 2 6 1 * 21 66 5
STORMS 100 15 15 * 2 3 7 * 16 64 20
WILDFIRES * * * * * * * * * * *
TOTAL 213 29 29 * 5 14 10 1 40 142 28
BIODIVERSITY 389 78 78 * 8 26 36 9 56 299 80
DESERTIFICATION 20 4 5 * * * 2 1 5 4 6
HEATING & COOLING -77 -33 5 -38 1 2 24 -8 30 7 -65
LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY 2,400 311 314 -3 135 162 16 -1 1,035 1,364 49
PERMAFROST 153 31 31 * 1 10 3 17 5 68 5
SEA-LEVEL RISE 526 86 86 * 23 42 15 5 166 310 29
WATER 13 14 44 -30 3 -3 13 7 -21 45 39
TOTAL 3,461 491 563 -71 166 235 60 30 1,276 1,908 144
TOTAL 106 23 23 * 17 5 * 0.5 84 21 *
AGRICULTURE 367 50 51 * 27 17 3 2 208 144 8
FISHERIES 168 13 16 -3 7 7 1 -1 97 80 -3
FORESTRY 44 6 7 -1 * 4 * * 9 34 1
HYDRO ENERGY -24 -4 * -4 * -3 * * 3 -20 -1
TOURISM * * 5 -5 2 * -1 * 19 -16 -2
TRANSPORT 7 1 1 * * * 1 * * 1 6
TOTAL 565 66 80 -13 37 25 2 2 329 223 8
TOTAL GLOBAL RESULTS 4,345 609 695 -84 225 279 72 33 1,730 2,294 179 1
OIL SANDS 24 7 7 * * * 7 * 2 1 20
OIL SPILLS 38 13 13 * 1 6 6 0.5 3 24 9
TOTAL 61 20 20 * 1 6 13 0.5 5 25 29
BIODIVERSITY 1,734 291 291 * 32 128 114 17 236 1,034 349
CORROSION 5 1.5 1.5 * * 0.5 0.5 * 1 4 0.5
WATER 10 4 4 * * * 3 1 * 2 4
TOTAL 1,749 296 296 * 32 129 117 18 238 1,038 353
TOTAL 630 172 172 * 74 67 21 10 226 341 37
AGRICULTURE -171 15 17 -2 1 2 9 4 -58 -121 4
FISHERIES 77 9 9 * 1 7 0.5 * 5 70 2
FORESTRY 83 28 28 * 3 9 14 1 13 48 18
TOTAL -11 52 54 -2 4 18 24 5 -40 -3 24
TOTAL GLOBAL RESULTS 2,429 540 542 * 112 220 174 34 429 1,401 444 1
NET 2030 NET 2010LOSSES
2010GAINS2010
CARBON
CLIMATE
2010 2030
SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC IMPACT
Developed Other IndustDeveloping Country High EmittersDeveloping Country Low Emitters
Health impact Industry stresHabitat changeEnvironmental disastersBillions of dollars (2010 PPP)non-discounted. Totals do notcorrespond exactly due to rounding.
* Less than one billion dollars
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24IFINDINGS AND OBSERVATIONS
1.THE MOST AMBITIOUS RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IS THEMOST ADVANTAGEOUS POLICY IN HUMAN, ECONOMIC ANDENVIRONMENTAL TERMS
2.THE HUMAN TOLL OF INACTION COULD EXCEED 100 MILLION DEATHSBETWEEN NOW AND 2030 ALONE
3.
CLIMATE ACTION IS GOOD VALUE, BUT THE COST OF ADAPTING TOCLIMATE CHANGE HAS LIKELY BEEN UNDERESTIMATED
FINDINGS AND OBSERVATIONS
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FINDINGS AND OBSERVATIO
4.
CLIMATE INJUSTICE IS EXTREME
5.CLIMATE INACTION COMPROMISES GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTAND POVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTS
6.INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE FINANCE: A CLEAR DEFAULTON COPENHAGEN/CANCUN COMMITMENTS
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7.NOBODY IS SPAREDTHE GLOBAL CLIMATE CRISIS
26IFINDINGS AND OBSERVATIONS
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8.OUTDATED ESTIMATES OF THE NEGATIVE EXTERNALITIES OF CLIMATEINACTION GUIDE TODAYS REGULATORY DECISIONS
FINDINGS AND OBSERVATION
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FOR ALLNATIONAL POLICY MAKERSCOMMIT FIRMLY TO LOW-CARBON PROSPERITY
will
PRIORITIZE PARALLEL MEASURES TO ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE
UNITE STRENGTHS IN INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIP
FOR GOVERNMENT GROUPSDEVELOPED COUNTRIES1.1 Support the vulnerable effectively:
1.2 Deliver fully on Copenhagen/Cancn
commitments:
28I RECOMMENDATIONS
RECOMMENDATIONS
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1.3 Rescue the MDGs:
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES2.1 Prioritize climate policy with highest
co-benets:
2.2 Pledge strong national action:
2.3 Invest in national risk analysis:
HIGHLY VULNERABLE COUNTRIES3.1 Prioritize adaptation:
RECOMMENDATION
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30IRECOMMENDATIONS
3.2 Boost domestic capacity:
3.3 Strengthen climate governance:
FOR CIVIL SOCIETY ANDTHE PRIVATE SECTOR
COMMUNICATORS AND THE MEDIA
4.1 Question received wisdom:
4.2 Promote awareness on risks as
opportunities:
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4.3 Take a stand:
INVESTORS5.1 Perform comprehensive risk
analysis:
5.2 Encourage diversication
strategies:
5.3 Foster transition stability:
RECOMMENDATIO
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32IRECOMMENDATIONS
RESEARCH COMMUNITY6.1 Encourage attribution research:
6.2 Expand global analysis:
6.3 Avoid misrepresentation of risks:
FOR THE INTERNATIONALDEVELOPMENT ANDHUMANITARIAN COMMUNITY
DEVELOPMENT ACTORS
7.1 Focus on economic development,education and environmental
governance:
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7.2 Raise the disposable income
of farmers and shermen:
7.3 Integrate climate strategies to
revitalize development:
THE HUMANITARIAN SYSTEM8.1 Brace for change:
RECOMMENDATION
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34I RECOMMENDATIONS
8.2 Establish a thematic funding
window for climate-linked emergency
response:
dis-attributed
8.3 Evolve thinking and partnerships:
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INCEPTION AND DEVELOPMENTThe rst edition of the Monitor wasmeant to serve as a departurepoint for discussions to reneunderstanding of climatevulnerability. As stated in that 2010report, the goal has been to improveboth the methodology and theaccuracy of this tool going forward.
A number of considerations raisedduring the development of the rstreport by external review bodiescould not be adequately addressedat that time, but instead have fedinto development of the secondedition. So while this new reportwas only formally commissioned inNovember 2011, the second Monitornevertheless has its origins wellrooted in the rst.The original Monitor approached theproblem of climate change in a non-technical but policy-relevant way. Itestablished a conceptual frameworkthat assessed vulnerability at thenational level. But it allowed foran understanding of vulnerabilityas internationally uid not static,with todays isolated vulnerabilitiesrapidly becoming tomorrows sharedvulnerabilities. Separating outsome of the different componentsof vulnerability helped to show thatnearly every country in the worldfaces some aspect of the problemto a high degree. Much of thearchitecture of the original report isretained in this Monitor.Not unsurprisingly, a number ofheadline conclusions from the2010 report still hold, such as aninsufcient focus on the humanhealth impacts affecting mostvulnerable communities or the highlysignicant links between a countrys
level of vulnerability to climatechange and its human developmenstatus. However, it became evidentthat not all original country-levelresults were satisfactory and thatcertain sections of the originalreport oversimplied the socio-economic effects of climate changeNor did the original format providesufcient granularity for sector-leve
effects (economic impacts werelimited to land and marine)or convey key nuances betweendifferent levels of certainty.Much of the difculty stemmedfrom a heavy reliance on third-partglobal or regional macro modelsthat pooled information at thoselevels, leading to a certain degreeof inaccuracy in the results for somcountries, since the informationwasnt designed for the Monitorsnation-by-nation analysis. Thissecond edition continued to drawon other studies; however, it st ill dinot solve the challenge of providingaccurate national-level outputs.The difculties of re-running climatimpacts models developed by otheis a recognised issue for the eld(Nordhaus, 2011).The second Monitors now greatlyexpanded set of indicators istherefore primarily anchored inindividual bodies of recent researchpertaining to discrete effect areas,such as distinct economic sectors(agriculture, sheries, forestry,etc.) and specic resource, healthor environmental impacts (e.g.water, heat and cold illnesses andbiodiversity). DARA has also workedwith additional external advisorybodies in order to further the rangeof inputs. The new Monitor alsoincludes a new thematic pillar.
36IRESEARCH PROCESS
RE
SEARC
HP
ROCESS
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RESEARCH PROCE
While the original edition focusedon the effect of Climate, thisedition focuses on both Climateand Carbon. The new section onthe socio-economic impacts ofthe carbon economy came fromrecognition that there is a distinct,symbiotic relationship betweenclimate change concerns and thecarbon economy. Viewing climate
policy more holistically will helpdecision makers form parallel orcombined responses to both theconsequences of global warmingand its root causes.Another major adjustment to thesecond Monitor is the inclusionof in-depth country-level input,including eld research andexchanges with local specialists.This input was viewed as a mustfor the effective development of animproved Monitor report, and thegovernments and experts of Ghanaand Vietnam fully embraced andengaged with that process.
CONSULTATION& COUNTRY RESEARCHEXTERNAL ADVISORY BODIESTwo external advisory bodies haveprovided critical input at variousintervals during the course of theMonitors development. A seniorAdvisory Panel provides strategicguidance on the Monitors framing,analysis and recommendations.An open format Peer ReviewCommittee provides specialistand technical input in particularon methodological and theoreticalissues.Participants in these two bodiesserve in a non-remunerated
personal capacity and representa broad spectrum of expertiseand viewpoints on the topic aswell as a variety of stakeholdergroups whose perspectives andinvolvement have helped enrichthe Monitors development,analysis and presentation. Theresearch team responds to everyquestion and critique from these
groups and endeavours to reectall input within the limitations ofthe overall project.The expectations for the secondMonitor were presented to thereport advisory bodies at thebeginning of 2012 in the formof an Inception Report to whichDARA received a rst round ofsubstantive feedback.The second Monitor thenunderwent two separatemethodological and quantitativereviews by its Peer ReviewCommittee, including a full-dayworkshop in Geneva in April2012. A dialogue betweenCommittee members andthe Research Team was alsoorganised with representativesof the Climate Vulnerable Forumon that occasion. A draft reportwas submitted for review toboth bodies in August 2012 andadjusted prior to public release.Individual members of theadvisory bodies comment onlyon certain aspects of the project,not on its ent irety, based on theirexpertise, availability and otherconsiderations.While the Monitor benets fromexternal advisory bodies andopen peer review, the systemand approach of this project is tobe distinguished from academic
peer-reviewed scientic literaThis report is designed pr imaa policy and communication that strives for technical accuin encapsulating the scientiwork of third parties togetherother forms of qualitative andquantitative information, incleld-based research.
COUNTRY STUDIESCountry studies were undertain Vietnam and Ghana in Mar2012. In each case, a half-danational workshop was conveto present conclusions of desresearch conducted by DARAto seek substantive input fromstakeholders and policy makacross public, private and civsociety groups. Two representerritorial units were also idein each country for eld reseaand dozens of extended interwere conducted there withsenior representatives of locagovernment, civil society andbusiness groups.
ADDITIONAL CONSULTATIONSClimate Vulnerable Forumdelegates were briefed on theMonitors progress at an ofcopen session of the group atthe UN climate change talks Bonn, Germany in May 2012.Additionally, some early resufrom the Monitor project werepresented and discussedpublicly at an ofcial ClimateVulnerable Forum Side Event the UN Conference on SustaiDevelopment (Rio+20) in RioJaneiro in June 2012.
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38IRESEARCH PROCESS
121110
7
8
9
DURBANUNFCCC COP17
Ofcial Forum Side EventPresentation of theDhaka Declaration
December 2011
1STMETHODOLOGICALQUANTITATIVE
REVIEWMonitor 2ndEd.April 2012
INCEPTIONREPORT
Monitor 2ndEd.February 2012
YEN BAI,VIETNAMField Research
March 2012
BOLGATANGA,
GHANAField ResearchMarch 2012ACCRA
National WorkshopMarch 2012
HANOINational Workshop
March 2012
BEN TRE,VIETNAMField Research
March 2012
SOUTH-EASTCOAST, GHANA
Field Research
March 2012
ADVISORYPANEL
STEERINGGR
OUP
56
RE
SEARC
HP
ROCESS
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RESEARCH PROCES
151413
1
2
1
LONDONLaunch of Monitor 1stEd.
December 2010
DOHAUNFCCC COP18
Ofcial Forum Side EventNovember 2012
CANCNUNFCCC COP16
Launch of Monitor 1stEd.December 2010
DHAKAClimate Vulnerable Forum
Ministerial MeetingNovember 2011
2NDMETHODOLOGICA
QUANTITATIVE REVIEMonitor 2ndEd.
July 2012
RIO DE JANEIROUN Conference on
Sustainable Development
Ofcial Forum Side EventJune 2012
BONNUNFCCC Intercessional
Negotiations
Ofcial Forum Side EventMay 2012
GENEVAPeer Review
Committee WorkshopApril 2012
WASHINGTON, DExpert Discussion
October 2012
NEW YORKLaunch of Monitor 2ndEd
September 2012
DRAFT REPORTREVIEW
Monitor 2ndEd.August 2012
3 2 1
ED
ITORIAL/RESEARCHT
EAM
PEERREVIEW
COMMITT
EE
CLIMATEVULNERABILITYMONITOR
2
ND EDITION
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KEYISSUES
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42IKEY ISSUES
ADDITIONALDEATHS
2010
2,7502030 3,500 2010 2,5002030 3,500
2010 20,0002030 45,000
2010 35,0002030 35,000
201030,000
2030 40,0002010
20,000
2030 20,000
2010 55,0002030 80,000
2010 85,0002030 150,000
2010 225,0002030 380,000
2010 1.4 MILLION2030 2.1 MILLION
2010 3.1 MILLION2030 3.1 MILLION
Floods & landslides Storms Diarrheal infections Heat & cold illnesses Hunger Malaria & vector-borne Meningitis
Air pollution Indoor smoke Occupational hazards Skin cancer
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DEATHS/COST
Enviromental disaster s Habitat change Health Industry stress = Billion USD PPP (2010 non-discounted) - negative values show gains
ADDITIONALCOSTS
2010 292030 213
2010 202030 61
2010 232030 106
2010 1722030 630
2010 662030 565
2010 522030 -11
2010 4912030 3,461
2010
2030
Climate Carbon
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ARID REGIONS
FARMERS
CYCLONE BELT COUNTRIES
SIDS
ARID FORESTED ZONES
DEFORESTATION ZONES
INDIGENOUS GROUPS
DRYLAND COMMUNITIES
AFRICA
HUMID TROPICAL COUNTRIES
PREGNANT WOMEN
SMALL CHILDREN
ELDERLY
ARCTIC COMMUNITIES
MOUNTAINOUS COMMUNITIES
SMALL ISLANDS
LOW-ELEVATION COASTAL COMMUNITIES
COASTAL CITIES
SUBSISTENCE FARMERS
WATER-INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES
CHILDREN
INFANTS
LOWER-INCOME COMMUNITIES/GROUPS
CHRONIC DISEASE SUFFERERS
OUTDOOR WORKERS
CITIES
SUBSISTENCE FISHERFOLK
REMOTE COMMUNITIES
SAHEL MENINGITIS BELT
YOUNG ADULTS
44IKEY ISSUES
AFFECTED GROUPS
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TROPICAL COUNTRIES
LIVELIHOODS DERIVED FROM FISHING
ENERGY COMPANIES
BEACH RESORTS
LOW-ELEVATION WINTER RESORTS
DENSELY POPULATED RIVER WAYS
OIL SAND HOST COMMUNITIES
COASTAL COMMUNITIES
TROPICAL FOREST COMMUNITIES/ZONES
NEWLY-INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES
TRANSITION ECONOMIES
INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES
WOMEN
RURAL POPULATIONS WITH POOR ENERGY ACCESS
COAL MINERS
VEHICLE DRIVERS
COAL AND GAS POWER PLANT WORKERS
FAIR SKINNED
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
CHINA
RIVER BASINS
OUTDOOR OCCUPATIONS
MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES
HEAVILY LABOURING WORKERS
LOWER INCOME COMMUNITIES
FISHERMEN
AFFECTED GROUP
Drought Floods & landslides Storms Wildres Biodive
Diarrheal infections Heat & cold illnesses Hunger Malaria & vec
Meningitis Desertication Heating and Cooling Labour productiv
Sea level rise Agriculture Fisheries Tourism Water
Forestry Hydro Energy Transport Permafrost
Biodiversity Fisheries Oil sands Air pollution Indoor sm
OIL Spills Water Skin cancer Agriculture Forestry
Corrosion Occupational hazards
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GEOPOLITICS
Climate Carbon
G8
G20
BRIC
SIDSs
LDCs
OECD
G8
G20
BRIC
SIDSs
LDCs
OECD
2010 2030
DEATHS DUE TO CLIMATE AND CARBON PER 100,000
DEVELOPEDCOUNTRIES
BASIC SIDSOTHERINDUSTRIALIZED
COUNTRIES
LLDC LDC0
23
0
28
2
59
2
57
7
84
11
90
12
110
12
80
16
112
15
77
5
40
6
39
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Climate, 2010 Climate, 2030
Carbon, 2010 Carbon, 2030
46IKEY ISSUES
CLIMATE
Acute Severe High Moderate Low
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OECD
LDCs
G8
G20
BRIC
SIDSs
OECD
LDCs
G8
G20
BRIC
SIDSs
2010 2030
COSTS DUE TO CLIMATE AND CARBON, % OF GDP
BASIC: Brazil, South Africa, India and China
LLDC: Land Locked Developing Countries
LDC: Least Developed Countries
SIDS: Small Island Developing States
DEVELOPEDCOUNTRIES
BASIC SIDSOTHERINDUSTRIALIZED
COUNTRIES
LLDC LDC
0.2%0.5%
0.3%
0.8%0.6% 0.6%
0.8% 0.9%1.1%
0.9%
2.0%
1.1%
3.3%
2.1%1.7%
2.5%
4.0%
3.3%
7.9%
3.3%
1.9% 1.8%
3.8%
1.0%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
GEOPOLITIC
CARBON
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Climate Carbon Economic Cost (billion PPP USD)
182,000INDIA333,00017,000PAKISTAN37,000
26,000NIGERIA31,00017,000DR CONGO25,00015,000
BANGLADESH21,000
10,000ETHIOPIA16,000
9,000INDONESIA13,000
8,000AFGHANISTAN13,0007,000MYANMAR11,000
6,000SUDAN/SOUTH SUDAN8,000
6,000TANZANIA8,0005,000UGANDA7,000
4,000MOZAMBIQUE6,000
4,000ANGOLA5,000
3,000BRAZIL5,000
3,000COTE D'IVOIRE5,000
3,000NIGER4,000
4,000CAMERON4,000
3,000BURKINA FASO4,000
3,000CHAD4,000
72CHINA72789INDIA680
48MEXICO36836INDONESIA282
21
THA