Climate Prediction Applications Climate Prediction Applications Postdoctoral Program (CPAPP)Postdoctoral Program (CPAPP)

An Experiment in Interfacing An Experiment in Interfacing Climate and SocietyClimate and Society

Lisa Goddard1, Kelly Redmond2, and Meg Austin3

1International Research Institute for Climate & Society2Desert Research Institute/Western Regional Climate Center

3University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

Email: austin@ucar.edu or goddard@iri.columbia.edu

U.S. CLIVAR Prediction, Predictability &

Applications Interface Panel (PPAI)

Our mission is to foster improved practices in the provision, validation, and uses of climate information and forecasts through coordinated participation within U.S. and international climate science and applications communities.

operational

Potential predictability

Research forecasts

Potential gains in seasonal forecast skill that might be realized by transitioning research forecasts’ methodologies

into operational forecasts. Also shown is potential predictability, approximating an upper limit to skill.

Goal 1: Further fundamental understanding of climate predictability

at seasonal to centennial time scales

OBSERVED Rainfall (1998-2004)MODEL SIMULATED Rainfall

Seager et al 2005

Goal 2: Improve provision of climate forecast information, particularly with respect to

drought and other extreme events

In some mid-latitudes regions drought appears to be related to La Niña-like conditions.(Seager et al., 2005, Schubert et al. 2004, Barlow et al. 2002, Cole et al. 2002)

Regions of Mid-latitude Drought Related to La Niña

Note: 5 month lag between max. Nino 3.4 SSTA and extent peaks

Spatial Extent of Tropical Drought Correlated with El Niño

(B. Lyon, 2004, GRL)

Goal 3: Foster research and development of prediction systems for climate impacts on ecosystems

Link between low-frequency climate variability and ecosystems

Gulf of Alaska – climate change and major shifts in marine ecosystemsBotsford et al 1997, Science Anderson and Piat 2000, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

Hare and Mantua, 2000, Prog. Oceanogr.The main EOFs here represent a collection of several dozen biological and physical variables in the North Pacific. A regime shift is evident in the mid to late 1970s.

Goal 4: Enable use of CLIVAR science for improved decision support

Process Studies/Understanding

Earth SystemModeling

ClimatePrediction

Climate-RelatedRisk Management& Decision Making

Transforming knowledge into solutions

The needs of decision makers and risk managers inform the research priorities of the climate prediction community

Some novel aspects – * Bring together recent PhDs with background in

climate science with real-time decision makers involved in climate risk management.

* Supervision of postdoctoral fellow by BOTHdecision making institution and climate research institution.

* Explicit “buy in” by decision making institution.Remaining salary provided by national funding agencies associated with US CLIVAR.“In kind” contributions from climate research institution.

Climate Prediction Applications Postdoc Program (CPAPP)

Institutional Partners –

Climate Research Institutions:Involved in the development, production and application of climate information. Examples of such institutions include, but are not limited to, universities tied to the RISAs, Regional Climate Centers, and federal research facilities

Decision Making Institutions:Involved in climate-related risk management and decision-making. Examples include national-, regional-, state-, or municipal-level agencies and organizations (public and non-profit) that manage or regulate natural resources or produce a public good.

Climate Prediction Applications Postdoc Program (CPAPP)

Status – Pilot phase – 3-post-docs funded by NOAA at 50%. Rest of funding from Decision Making Institution.

* January 2007 – Program prospectus ‘finalized’

* August 2007 – Meeting of Oversight Committee with institutional partners to develop program announcement and solidify

process.

* September 2007 – Post-doc Announcement of Opportunity issued

* December 2007 – Initial post-doc applications due

* January 2008 – Post-doc short-list provided with institutional statements* January 2008 – Institutional Partner Announcement of Opportunity issued

Climate Prediction Applications Postdoc Program (CPAPP)

Involvement … so far (projects to start mid-2008)

Institutional Partners involved:* USBR + NOAA-ESRL: Western Water & Climate Change

* Tampa Bay Water + U. Florida: Municipal Water & Climate Variability

Post-doctoral interest:* 22 candidates

* 7 short-listed candidates, now developing more detailed research proposals based on institutional statements of the problem.

Climate Prediction Applications Postdoc Program (CPAPP)

CPAPP Timeline

Aug 2

007

Oct 20

07

Dec 2

007

Feb 2

008

Apr 2

008

Jun

2008

Aug 2

008

Oct 20

08

Dec 2

008

: Meeting of Oversight Committee

: Announcement of Opportunity

: Due Date

: Decisions Announced

OC & Inst.Partners define themes of post-doc AO

OC Panel reviews post-doc proposals

OC & Inst.Partners define themes of post-doc AO

Post-doc Application (’08)

Inst.Partner Application (’09)

Post-doc begins work

Initial Applications due

Short-listed candidates develop more specificresearch proposals

Post-doc Application (’09)

For more information please visithttp://www.vsp.ucar.edu

or send email toMeg Austin: austin@ucar.edu

(Program Administrator)

Lisa Goddard: goddard@iri.columbia.edu (Chair of Oversight Committee)

Thank You!