Post on 11-Jan-2016
CLIMATE CHANGE STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATIONS
Post-2012 Negotiations
29 OCTOBER 2007
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BOGOR : Some progress?
Summitry showing resultsElements of Bali roadmap clearLinkage of Kyoto Protocol and
Convention “tracks” inevitableIdea of a long-term global goal More openness over developing
country “contributions”
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BALI ROAD MAP for post 2012 agreement• Four core issues: mitigation, adaptation,
technology, finance• Plus others: deforestation, impact of
response measures, SD PAMs (sustainable development policies and measures), carbon markets
• Recognition of non UNFCCC processes?
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Questions
• Elements of the road map?• 2009 end date?• A single negotiation or two tracks –
Kyoto and Convention? • If two, what linkages/conditionalities?• Input from non UNFCCC processes?
(G8, MEM, APEC etc)
Ad-hoc Working Group (AWG)
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AWG: work programme
(a) Analysis of mitigation potentials and ranges of emission reduction objectives of Annex 1 Parties
(b) Analysis of possible means to achieve mitigation objectives
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AWG: work programme (c)
• Scale of emission reductions to be achieved by Annex 1 Parties in aggregate and
• allocation of the corresponding mitigation effort, and
• agreement on their further commitments
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AWG: Indicative range for Annex 1 in aggregate • 25 – 40% below 1990 (by 2020) may
be discussed at Bali• Iteration between (a), (b) and (c) of
work programme
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AWG: The Science (1)
• IPCC AR4 • To avoid some of the most extreme
impacts of climate change, increase in global mean temperature needs to be limited to no more than 2 – 3 deg C
• This requires stabilisation below about 560 ppm CO2e
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AWG: The Science (2)
• 80% chance of staying below 3 deg C if GHG concentrations are stabilised at less than 445ppm CO2e
• But with stabilisation at 560 ppm CO2e, there is a 50% chance of exceeding 3 deg C
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AWG: The Science (3)
To achieve stabilisation at 445-490ppm CO2e would require that by 2020:
• Emissions from Annex 1 as a whole were 25 – 40% below 1990 levels, and
• There was substantial deviation from baseline for emissions in LA, ME, EA and Centrally-planned Asia.
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AWG: Matters being considered by the Govt (1)
• What does the science suggest that the range should be?
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AWG: Matters being considered by the Govt (2)Not necessary that all Annex 1 Parties’
commitments are within the indicative range
• Comparable effort and equitable burden sharing
• Easier/harder for New Zealand than other Annex 1 countries?
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AWG: Matters being considered by the Govt (3)
• Implications of extent of participation and extent of coverage eg. avoided deforestation, bunker fuels, ….
• Possible range for international Carbon price
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AWG: Matters being considered by the Govt (4)Cost to New Zealand• Implications of possible changes to
LULUCF rules • Level of sequestration in Kyoto forests
around 2020, 2030• Length of commitment period
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AWG: Matters being considered by the Govt (5)
• Direct cost to New Zealand businesses/households, upper bound: commitment x international Carbon price
• Impact on national economic welfare (NZ commitment, international Carbon price, trade effects, …..)
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AWG: Possible conditions that could be attached to New Zealand support for a particular indicative range (1)
Generic• Very high probability that the final
package will achieve stabilisation at the target concentration ie. sufficient coverage of emissions – activities and countries – with sufficient commitment to sufficient reductions
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AWG: Possible conditions that could be attached to New Zealand support for a particular indicative range (2)
Or specific• Inclusion of as many activities as possible• Participation of all Annex 1 Parties• Flexibility mechanisms are available• Annex 1 mitigation via flex. mechs. is
additional to “substantial deviation ….”
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AWG: Possible conditions that could be attached to New Zealand support for a particular indicative range (3)
• Effects of changes to LULUCF rules taken into account
• Indirect trade effects taken into account
• Fair burden sharing
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Other Issues: Russian Proposal
• streamlining inclusion into Annex I• Convention voluntary commitmentsNew Zealand position• supports new agenda item/s for these issues• joining Annex I should be simple; tacit
acceptance• Voluntary commitments one of elements in post-
2012 considerations
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Other issues: Kyoto Protocol 2nd Review
• 2nd Review at CMP4; Bali = scope and content• 1st Review inadequate; link to AWG and post-2012
New Zealand position• Basis = best science & other information• Process: prepare during 2008; distinct, clear, time-
defined; links to other processes• Scope: LULUCF rules, streamlining A1 inclusion,
CDM, nature of commitments (type, length)
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Other Issues: Avoided Deforestation (1)• SBSTA 27 agenda item 5: Reducing
emissions from deforestation in developing countries: approaches to stimulate action
• Emissions from deforestation are roughly 20% of global emissions.
• Widely recognised as a major area to be addressed in any future global climate change action
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Avoided Deforestation (2)• Process to date
– In March 2007, Australia and New Zealand co-hosted/funded the second workshop on this issue in Cairns, Australia.
– At SBSTA 26 a conclusion could not reached. The draft decision will continue to be negotiated at SBSTA 27 (Bali).
– SBSTA 26 invited Parties to make submissions.• Key issues of debate
– Scope– Fund– Market based
• Other issues– Baselines (local, regional, national), additionality, permanence, leakage,
monitoring.
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Avoided Deforestation (3)• NZ’s position
– Action is needed
– Mechanism requires sufficient money to address issue
– As such fund idea has weaknesses
– Technical issues can be addressed
– How does this ‘fit into’ the wider processes?
– What implications for emissions reductions targets?
• Possible outcomes from Bali
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Agriculture: International leadership
• NZ Government investing $1M p.a. on international collaboration on agriculture and forestry climate change research
• Major first step is establishment of Livestock Emissions and Abatement Research Network (LEARN)
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Agriculture: LEARN
• NZ establishing website for LEARN• Proposed that NZ act as administrator of
LEARN• Exploring possible research secondment
programme• Will look to co-host and sponsor future
activities under LEARN – workshops, conferences, exchanges
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Agriculture: Next steps
• GGAA3 – conference to be held in NZ in November this year
• NZ sponsoring attendance of developing countries at GGAA3 and inaugural LEARN meeting– At least 20 countries will attend LEARN meeting
including: Brazil, Argentina, Chile, China, India, Peru, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia, Mexico, Canada, Ireland, UK, Switzerland, Ukraine, France, Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand
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Agriculture: Bali
• Presentation on Non-CO2 ghgs in Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA)
• Advertise LEARN and associated activities• Continue to engage with Parties on
agriculture