Post on 18-Dec-2015
How will ecosystems and species shift with changing climate in Alaska?
Connecting Alaska Landscapes into the FutureWith US Fish and Wildlife Service and other partners
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What is climate change?
Because ocean currents and air currents control climate, warming in one part of the globe may cause cooling elsewhere
Heat increases evaporation and transpiration, so clouds and rainfall also change
Usually refers to the complex effects of increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
Incoming radiation from the sun gets trapped as heat
Why are there no exact answers?
Other factors besides greenhouse gases affect climate, e.g volcanoes, solar variation, and ocean currents
Weather varies from day to day Climate varies over cycles of years,
centuries, and millennia Water vapor also traps heat, and
climate in turn effects how much water vapor is in the atmosphere
We don’t know exactly how much carbon will be released, because this depends on global development and international cooperation
http://geology.com/news/labels/Global-Warming.html
How do we know it’s happening?
Measurements Average yearly temperatures Precipitation Atmospheric gases
Models Past and present trends Linking oceans, atmosphere,
and energy from the sun
What can we do about climate change?
Mitigation = stopping it from happening Energy conservation
Insulation, fuel efficiency, waste reduction Renewable energy
Wind, solar, geothermal, and hydro Carbon storage
Trees, oceans, and soils can all store carbon and keep greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere
Adaptation = dealing with the effects that are already occurring Reactive: as each crisis happens Proactive: planning ahead
Wind turbines at Selawik AKhttp://www.avec.org/galleries/Selawik/Selawik_WindTurbines.jpg
Forecast Planning One Future
Scenario Planning Multiple Futures
Scenarios overcome the tendency to predict, allowing us to see multiple possibilities for the future
Scenario Planning vs. Forecasting
What we know today
+10%-10% Uncertainties
Global Business Network (GBN) -- A member of the Monitor Group Copyright 2010 Monitor Company Group
What we know today
Scenarios: “what if” stories
Everyday choices are based on scenarios Applying for a job Deciding what to wear Buying a lottery ticket
Examining scenarios What are possible outcomes? What is the likelihood of each outcome? How much do we want to avoid the bad
outcomes? How desirable are the good outcomes? How do we balance time and costs against risks?
http://mareeconway.com/blog
Scenarios and adaptation
Plan for several potential futures, not just one
Consider human choices and political changes
Account for uncertainty When the future is
uncertain, resiliency is important
Communicate and collaborate
http://mareeconway.com/blog
http://www.geog.mcgill.ca/faculty/peterson/susfut/resilience/rLandscape.html
SNAP scenarios
What is most important to Alaskans and other Arctic partners? What changes are most likely? What changes will have the greatest impact? What are we best able to predict? How can we adapt to those changes?
Scenarios are linked to SNAP models Climate models Models of how people use land and
resources Other models linked to climate and human
behavior www.snap.uaf.edu
SNAP climate models
Climate projections are based on global models Three possible scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions Different models of how the ocean and atmosphere may respond
SNAP selected the models that were most accurate in the far north
We scaled down the model to account for local features such as mountains and coastlines
Global Circulation Model (ECHAM5) Figure 1A from Frankenberg et al., Science, Sept. 11, 2009
What data does SNAP have?
Temperature Precipitation (rain and snow) Every month of every year from
1900 to 2100 (historical + projected)
5 models, 3 emission scenarios Available as maps, graphs,
charts, raw data On line, downloadable, in
Google Earth, or in printable formats
Projected January temperatures, 1980 and 2099
Processed data
Raw data on temperature and precipitation can be linked to other models to create more useful products
Examples include thaw dates, freeze-up dates, season length, soil temperature, and water availability
Days between spring thaw and autumn
freeze-up
2090-20992060-20692000-2009
Complex linked models
Shifting plants and animals (biomes and ecosystems)
Soil temperature and permafrost Water availability Farms and gardens Forest fire
Soil temperature at one meter depth: 1980’s, 2040’s, and 2080’s (Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab, UAF)
Examples of SNAP projects
How will climate change affect Alaska’s National Parks?
Will farmers near Fairbanks be able to plant new crops?
Will plant and animals species shift?
Will hydroelectric dams have enough water?
Can we expect more forest fires? Can tour companies plan for
more summer visitors?www.nenananewslink.com
alaskarenewableenergy.org
Biomes Caribou Alaska marmot Trumpeter swans Reed canary grass
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Connecting Alaska Landscapes into the FutureWith US Fish and Wildlife Service and other partners
Goals
Identify lands and waters in Alaska that likely serve as landscape-level migration corridors currently and into the future given climate change
Identify conservation strategies with our partners that will help maintain landscape-level connectivity
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1 (Precipitation)
1 (Temperature)
=
Precipitation Temperature
Mean decadal
Starting:2000-09
Future:2030-392060-692090-99
Classification and regression trees
Climate change forecasted from composite model using RandomForestTM at 5km grid
MISSING! Sea level rise & Permafrost change
Used for Training Data
Alaska BiomesDerived from Unified Ecoregions“Nowacki et al 2001”
Arctic
Boreal
Boreal Transition
North Pacific Maritime
Aleutians
Western Tundra
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Current biomes in Alaska and western Canada
http://geogratis.cgdi.gc.ca/geogratis/en/collection/detail.do?id=4361
Predicted biome/climate 2000-2009
Arctic
AK Boreal
Boreal Transition
N. Pacific Maritime
Aleutian Islands
Western Tundra
Resiliency
Red = 3 changes
Orange = 2 changes
Light Green = 1 change
Dark Green = No Changes (refugia)
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Modeling Trumpeter Swan Occurrence:Future Predictions based on Ice Free DaysSNAP data and Connectivity
Trumpeter Swan Data(2005 Trumpeter Swan Survey, a census flown every 5 years in August)Provided by Debbie Groves via Bob Platte
Tundra Swan dataare not available, yet29
Modeling Canary Reed Grass:Future Predictions of an Invasive Species
(based on Road Proximity and SNAP climatologies and Connectivity)
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2009 + roads + known occurrences
2039
2069 2099
GREEN = none
YELLOW = low
RED = high
Reed Canary Grass potential distribution
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Future Potential Caribou Range Distribution(all herds combined)
2009 2030-2039
2060-2069 2090-2099
legend:
purple= winter green= summer
Lessons from species modeling…
Creation of climatic niche is possible to suggest trends but must be done thoughtfully and acknowledge limitations
Even simple models of distribution shifts require more data than we have readily available
Classic connectivity models are scale- and species-dependent
Invasive plant spread likely to accelerate