Climate Change Literacy Guiding Principles for Informed Climate Decision Making.

Climate Change LiteracyGuiding Principles for Informed

Climate Decision Making.

G. McBean, CM, Ph.D., FRSC

Institute for Catastrophic Loss ReductionDepartments of Geography and Political

ScienceThe University of Western Ontario

London, Ontario

The Climate System

• Interacting components: atmosphere, ocean, land surface, sea ice, glaciers…

• Processes are

complicated and

all components are

interconnected

The Sun is the primary source of energy

Life on Earth depends on, is shaped by, and now affects climate.

Climate Change Literacy

• The Essential Principles of Climate Science

• The Greenhouse Effect

As the planet cooled from its very hot beginning

Gases came out – water vapour

Greenhouse effect

Oceans – marine life

Oxygen

Land life

Ozone layer Humans

Intervention

Some water condenses to liquid – clouds-rain

GREENHOUSE EFFECT – gases in atmosphere trap energy and warm the surface and lower atmosphere

15oCLong Waves

5700oC

Short Waves

MarsAtmosphere: mass <1% earth’sGH Gases: >80% CO2

Sfc. Temp.: -47C GH Effect: 10C

FAR TOO COLD!

Other planets also have Greenhouse Effects, but these are unsuitable for life

EarthGH Gases: ~0.04% CO2

~ 1% H2OSfc. Temp.: 15C GH Effect: 33C

NOT BAD!

VenusAtmosphere: mass 90x earth’sGH Gases: >90% CO2

Sfc. Temp.: 477C GH Effect: 523C

FAR TOO HOT!

Time Scales for Climate System

• Water cycle 10 days

• Ocean response years to centuries

• Emissions to globe years

• Methane gas 10 years

• Carbon dioxide 100 years

• End-use technologies years

• Supply technologies decades

• Social standards decades

global issues

regional issue)

responding

Climate change is a long-term issue Issues of intergenerational and international equity

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – assess climate

change – 1990,95, 2001,07 • Most scientific information in this presentation

is from IPCC (or Canadian national assessments)

• Nobel Peace Prize for 2007: awarded to: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Albert Arnold (Al) Gore Jr.

• The Norwegian Nobel Committee noted that it • “is seeking to contribute to a sharper focus on

the processes and decisions that appear to be necessary to protect the world’s future climate, and thereby to reduce the threat to the security of mankind. Action is necessary now, before climate change moves beyond man’s control.”

• 240 Canadian climate scientists shared in this Prize as co-authors of the one or more of the IPCC major reports.

• Lester Pearson won the Peace Prize in 1957.

Changing Greenhouse Gas Concentrations

from ice cores and modern data

Carbon dioxide Methane

Nitrous oxide

Last 10,000 y

Time Scales for Climate System

• Water cycle 10 days

• Ocean response years to centuries

• Emissions to globe years

• Methane gas 10 years

• Carbon dioxide 100 years

• End-use technologies years

• Supply technologies decades

• Social standards decades

global issues

regional issue)

responding

Climate change is a long-term issue Issues of intergenerational and international equity

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – assess climate

change – 1990,95, 2001,07 • Most scientific information in this presentation

is from IPCC (or Canadian national assessments)

• Nobel Peace Prize for 2007: awarded to: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Albert Arnold (Al) Gore Jr.

• The Norwegian Nobel Committee noted that it • “is seeking to contribute to a sharper focus on

the processes and decisions that appear to be necessary to protect the world’s future climate, and thereby to reduce the threat to the security of mankind. Action is necessary now, before climate change moves beyond man’s control.”

• 240 Canadian climate scientists shared in this Prize as co-authors of the one or more of the IPCC major reports.

• Lester Pearson won the Peace Prize in 1957.

Changing Greenhouse Gas Concentrations

from ice cores and modern data

Carbon dioxide Methane

Nitrous oxide

Last 10,000 y

• Is the Climate Changing?

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850).

NASA-GISS analysis.2005 was warmest2007 and 1998 were second warmest 2008 was 9th warmest in the instrumental period (since 1850)

Sea-ice is Melting

• Why is it changing?

ObservationsClimate Models

Natural processes•Variations in Earth’s orbit?•Variations in Sun?•Volcanoes?

Why is the climate changing?

Natural processes+Human Processes•Greenhouse gas emissions•Aerosols•Land-cover change

Natural processes+Human Processes

Natural processes

Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed

increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.

• How will it change in the future?

Projecting the Future

warming °C per decade

ScienceUncertainty

And the warmingwill continue for

centuries to follow

Emissions GtCO2 eq/yr

Key Messages

• The climate has warmed, will continue to warm, and humans are the cause

• Mitigation (emission reductions) will not substantially affect the climate over the next few decades – so we have to adapt.

• But, choices made now will have a big impact on the second-half of the 21st century climate and beyond.

• Adapt to what?

28Changing Precipitation

Hotter summers;Rain - varies

Much warmer winters;Increased precipitation

Water-sewage, agricultureForestry, floods, droughts

No one lives at the global average Medium (A1B) scenario (2090-2099): Global mean warming 2.8oC

Annual DJF JJA

Number of hot days* per year

0 20 40 60 80

Victoria

Calgary

Winnipeg

London

Toronto

Quebec

Fredericton

2080-2100

2041-2069

2020-2040

1961-1990

Projected

Observed

*A hot day is defined as a day with a maximum

temperature above 30C

8 22 37 68

Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and AnalysisCentre canadien de la modélisation et de l’analyse climatique

In Europe - Record setting August 2003(more than 35,000 deaths) will be

every second summer – by mid-century

Actions:•Better design our structures and cities

•more green space-shade-use of passive cooling•Heat alerts and responses – medical advice

•Cleaner air

More frequent hot days – virtually certainWarm spells – very likely

No Breathing RoomNational Illness Costs of Air Pollution

Canadian Medical Association (CMA) August 20081. In 2008, 21,000 Canadians will die from the effects

of air pollution.2. By 2031, almost 90,000 people will have died from

the acute effects of air pollution. The number of deaths due to long-term exposure to air pollution will be 710,000. …

10. 11. In 2008, economic costs of air pollution will top $8 billion. By 2031, these costs will have accumulated to over $250 billion.

The processes that result in air pollution are much the same as those that produce greenhouse gases.

And more hot days will result in more smog days – for the same emissions

• Projections - intense rainfall events, heat waves and smog episodes are likely to become more frequent.

• Heat-related mortality could more than double in southern and central Ontario by the 2050s, while air pollution mortality could increase about 15 to 25% during the same interval.

• The health of Ontario residents has been at risk … extreme weather, heat waves, smog episodes and ecological changes that support the spread of vector-borne diseases.

• Walkerton, Ontario

From Impacts to Adaptation:Canada in a

Changing Climate 2007

$500M for the August 19, 2005 wind, rain

Historical occurrencesof urban flooding

1980, 1996, 2002, 20041 in 100 year event in

Wind Damage to Infrastructure

Severe Storm Loss of Service

Sept. 29, 2005 93,000Nov. 6, 2005 120,000Nov. 16, 2005 50,000Feb. 4, 2006 100,000July 17, 2006 170,000Aug. 2, 2006 150,000Sept. 24+27, 2006 93,000

The Insurance Research Lab for Better Homes

More heavy precipitation events – very likely

550 ppm – mid-late this century

Natural ecosystems depend on temperature and Precipitation.

Increased risk of drought

Is Likely

Boreal forest under stressClimate moves north fasterthan the trees

Lakes Michigan-

Lake Ontario

Great Lakes Water Levels

Current & Projected Ranges

X Average, 1918-1998

X Projected for 2XCO2, assuming no change in natural variability (CCC GCMII from Morstch & Quinn, 1996)

Lake Erie

Lake Superior

1 metre dropin lake level

possible

Warmer temperatures

How will this change our access to water, sewage disposal, shipping and recreation?

Warmer lakes and changing climateresulting in more invasive species

in lakes and ecosystems

Climate Change is a Global Issue:

Coastal vulnerabilities in light of global change

– Sea level rise

– Increasing settlement in coastal zones

Time series of global mean sea level, as a deviation from 1980-99 mean.

Vulnerability of Asian coastal cities

– Increasing urban settlement in low-lying coastal areas

– IPCC has identified Asian mega deltas as “hot spots of vulnerability”

– By 2070, nine of the top 10 cities in terms of population exposure will be found in Asia

(Kolkata, Mumbai, Dhaka, Guangzhou, Ho Chi Minh City, Shanghai, Bangkok, Rangoon, and Hai Phong)

• We have a responsibility to our children and grandchildren and people around the world.

• We MUST reduce our impact.