March 24, 2016

NOAA National Weather Service | Omaha/Valley, Nebraska

Barb Mayes Boustead, Ph.D.Meteorologist and Climate Program Manager

National Weather ServiceOmaha/Valley Weather Forecast Office

Climate Change for theInsurance Industry

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A Little Bit About Me

@windbarb

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Presentation Overview

1. Climate Change Definitions, Drivers, and Responses– Science basics– Global change– Central US impacts

2. Relationships between Climate Change and (Extreme)Weather

– U.S. trends– Climate fingerprints on weather events

3. Sources of Weather and Climate Information– Trusted, vetted, credible sources

4. Climate Partners– Weather-Ready Nation (and a Climate Prepared Nation, too!)– Decision support services

5. Resources and Links

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Climate Change:Definitions, Drivers, and Responses

Section 1 of 5

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Weather vs. Climate

Weather Climate

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So, what’s with this“global warming”/climate change stuff?

•First, let’s cover terminology–The terms “climate change” and“global warming” are often usedinterchangeably

–Scientists prefer “climate change”because it describes the changes tothe whole system, not justtemperatures

–Many people still say “global warming”

•Be careful about your informationsources!

–Blogs, news commentators, politiciansoften not trained in climate

–Would you go to a dentist to get heartsurgery?

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Natural Greenhouse Basics

• Earth “should” be about 0°F

• Our atmosphere’s naturalgreenhouse properties maintaina surface temperature of about57°F

• Greenhouse gases includecarbon dioxide, methane, watervapor, nitrous oxide and others.

directly

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Greenhouse Gasses Increasing Due toHuman Activity (Burning Fossil Fuels)

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Carbon Dioxide Is Increasing Due to Human Activities

2015 peak: 404 PPM2016 peak: 404+ PPM

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Increased Temperatures Explained Only WhenIncluding Increased Greenhouse Gases

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Most Obvious Global Impact Is on TemperaturesFrom NCEI Global Climate Report: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2015/13

2015: 1.62°F warmer than 20th century average

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Global Analyses in Agreement

NASA, NOAA, MetOffice: relative to a common 1951 – 1980 base period

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings

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Extreme Events

Source: IPC AR5

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In the past half century:Arctic air temperature increased at 0.72°F / decadeLand surface temperatures increased at 0.43°F / decadeSea surface temperatures increased at 0.22°F / decade

OceansLandArctic

The Rate of Warming Is Not the SameAround the World

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10 11 Indicators of a Warming World

The stratosphere (up here!) is cooling

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16NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATIONNOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

• In 2014, snow melt occurred 20–30 days earlier over NorthAmerica than the 1998–2010 average.

Snow Is Melting Early

17NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATIONNOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

Glaciers Are Melting

1900 versus today.

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• The 8 lowest extents have occurred in past 8 years.• September Arctic sea ice extent is declining at a rate of -13.3% per decade.

Arctic Sea Ice Is Melting

Arctic sea ice

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Relationships between Climate Change and(Extreme) Weather

Section 2 of 5

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Big Heat Is IncreasingNOAA/NCEI Climate Extremes Index: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei

(Big Cold is generally decreasing)

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Big Rain Is Increasing

• On average, withsignificant regionalpatterns, heavyprecipitation isincreasing in twoaspects:

– Large events are nowresponsible for more of theannual rainfall budget

– Large events are generallygetting larger

• What impacts of thatchange can youimagine? Adapted from National Climate Assessment 2, US Global

Change Research Program.

22NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATIONNOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

Record highs are becoming more common than recordlows, and droughts are becoming more widespread.

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Billion Dollar DisastersSeveral factors converge to produce outcomes

• Trends in loss are acombination of:

– Trends in intensity,number and location ofphysical (weather andclimate) events

– Trends in wherestructures and assets areplaced (built)

– Trends in the value ofstructures and assets

NOAA/NCEI: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/

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Plains: Temperatures and Precipitation Increase

• Projections of changes intemperatures and days withprecipitation in 2041-2070.

• Temperature changes dependon:

–Time of day•Night warming faster than day

–Time of year•Winter warming faster thansummer

• Precipitation changes:–Depends on time of year

•Spring increasing, fall decreasing

–May include both longerdroughts and more heavy rainevents

Strict Limits to Emissions Soon

Little or No Change to Emissions: “Business as Usual”

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Plains: Dry Days Decrease

Strict Limits to Emissions SoonLittle or No Change to Emissions:

“Business as Usual”

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Climate Change Impacts on Crops

Corn and soybean harvests decrease with higher June-July-August maximumtemperature than 1980-2007. Source: NCA

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Longer freeze-free period (high)

Higher average winter temperatures (high)

Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)

Fewer extreme high temperatures in summer in the short term,but more in the long term (medium)

Higher nighttime temps summer and winter (high)

More freeze-thaw cycles (high)

Increased temperature variability (high)

Climate Change and Temperatures:Effects and Confidence

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Climate Change Effects and Confidence

More precipitation annually (~10%) (medium)

Change in “seasonality” (high)

More water-logging of soils (medium)

More variability of summer precipitation (high)Longer periods without rain (medium)

Higher absolute humidity (high)

Stronger storm systems (medium)More intense rain events, thus more runoff (high)

More winter soil moisture recharge (medium)

Snowfall increases in short term, but decreases in the long run(medium)

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Climate Change Effects and Confidence

Reduced wind speeds (high)

Reduced solar radiation (medium)

Increased tropospheric ozone (high)

Accelerated loss of soil carbon (high)

Phenological stages shortened (high)

Increased water use efficiency for plants (high)

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Sources of Climate Information

Section 3 of 5

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The U.S. Global ChangeResearch Program(USGCRP)

www.globalchange.gov

Latest report released Spring 2014

Focuses on impacts in different regions of the U.S. AND in differentsectors

Printable PDFs for each region

http://www.globalchange.gov/

Source of Information:National Climate Assessment

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State of the Climate in 2014http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate

• 25th edition• Published

annually insummer

• Led byNOAA/NCEI

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State of the Climate in 2014http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate

413 authors from 58 countries; 17 editors on 3 continents413 authors from 58 countries; 17 editors on 3 continents

• Many scientists from many disciplines from around the world fitthe pieces of Earth’s climate system and its changes together toconnect the dots:‒ Dozens of essential climate indicators, extreme weather and climate

events, historical context.• This report does not pursue “attribution” or contain forecasts,

scenarios, or projections.

Atmosphere

Snow and Ice

Oceans

Land

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Extreme Weather & Climate series

• “Monitoring & UnderstandingChange …” State ofknowledge series (2013 &2014)• … in extreme storm statistics.

Kunkel, et al. 94(4), 499-514.– http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.11

75/BAMS-D-11-00262.1

• … in heat waves, cold waves,floods and droughts in the US.Peterson, et al. 94(6), 821-834.– http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.11

75/BAMS-D-12-00066.1

• … in extreme winds, waves, andextratropical storms. Vose, et al.95(3), 377-386.– http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.11

75/BAMS-D-12-00162.1

• … in CMIP5 Climate ModelAnalyses. Wuebbles, et. al., 95(4),571-583.• http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.11

75/BAMS-D-12-00172.1

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Climate Partners

Section 4 of 5

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Partners in Climate Services (…and many more)

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/

http://stateclimate.org/

https://www.climate.gov/

http://www.weather.gov/

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/

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Weather-Ready Nation Ambassadors

• Weather-Ready Nation Ambassadors commit to:–Promoting WRN messages and themes to their stakeholders–Engaging NOAA on potential collaboration opportunities–Sharing success stories of preparedness and resiliency–Serving as an example by educating employees on workplace preparedness

• NOAA supports WRN Ambassadors by:–Providing WRN outreach content–Exploring innovative approaches for collaboration–Assisting with StormReady opportunities–Recognizing your organization as a WRN Ambassador–Sharing the WRN Ambassador logo for your use

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation/ambassadors.html

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Resources and Links

Section 5 of 5

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Resources for Further Information

• International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): http://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm• U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) National Climate Assessment: http://www.globalchange.gov/• NOAA Climate: http://www.climate.gov/• NOAA/NCEI Climate Change and Variability: http://ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/climate-change-and-variability• NOAA Carbon Dioxide Measurements: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/• NASA Global Climate Change: http://climate.nasa.gov/index• National Snow and Ice Data Center Arctic Sea Ice: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/• National Academies of Science booklet “Climate Change: Evidence, Impacts, and Choices”: https://nas-

sites.org/americasclimatechoices/more-resources-on-climate-change/climate-change-lines-of-evidence-booklet/• American Association for the Advancement of Science document “What We Know”: http://whatweknow.aaas.org/get-

the-facts/• American Meteorological Society Statement on Climate Change:

http://www.ametsoc.org/policy/2012climatechange.htmlAmerican Geophysical Union Statement on Climate Change: http://sciencepolicy.agu.org/files/2013/07/AGU-Climate-Change-Position-Statement_August-2013.pdf

• HPRCC Climate Change: http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/climate_change.php• HPRCC “Climate Change on the Prairie”:

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/publications/files/HighPlainsClimateChangeGuide.pdf

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For More (Local) Climate Info:

•Barb Mayes Boustead, National Weather Service inOmaha/Valley, Nebraska: barbara.mayes@noaa.gov or(402) 359-5166

•High Plains Regional Climate Center in Lincoln, Nebraska:(402) 472-6706