Post on 06-May-2015
Climate Change Concerns and Emerging
Challenges for Water and Food Security of Pakistan
Regional Workshop on Climate Change, Food and Water Security
24 – 25 February, 2011, Colombo, Sri Lanka
Ghazanfar Ali
Head Water Resources Section
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Outline
Regional Settings
Some Characteristics of Pakistan’s Water Resources
Past & Projected Climate Changes w.r.t. Pakistan
Vulnerability of Water and Food Security
GCISC Studies on Impact of Climate Change on Water and Agriculture
Some Adaptation Possibilities/Way Forward
The South Asian Region: A hot spot or many hot spots
Principal Rivers of the Himalayan Region
River Name Length (km) Mean
Discharge
(m³/s)
Glacier Melt in River
Flow (%)
Yangtze 6,300 34,000 18.5
Brahmaputra 2,948 19,824 12.3
Ganges 2,057 18,691 9.1
Irrawaddy 2,170 13,565 Small
Mekong 4,600 11,048 6.6
Indus 2,900 5,533 44.8
Salween 2,800 1,494 8.8
Yellow 5,464 1,365 1.3
Tarim 2,030 146 40.2
Countries Financially Vulnerable to Extreme Weather Events
South Asia: Induced
Vulnerability (Climate Change/Variability)
• Two thirds of the disasters, region
experiences, are climate related
(Cyclone, Floods, Drought /
Desertification, GLOFs)
• Phenomenal increase in their
frequency, severity and
unpredictability in the recent times
• Climate Risk – on the Rise
Basic Features of South Asian Economies
India Sri Lanka Bangladesh Pakistan Nepal
Population (millions) 1081.23 19.22 149.66 157.32 2.57
Per capita GDP (US$) 538 976 371 547 240
Share of Agriculture in GDP
(%) 22 17 22 23 40
Water use in agriculture (%) 87 96 96 96 96
Cereals Production – Share
in World (%)
10.2
0.1
1.8
1.3
0.3
Proportion of people
undernourished (%) 20 22 30 23 17
Cereal Requirement
Status by 2025 (%) -1 - -5 -25 -
Some Characteristics
of
Pakistan’s Water Resources
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Some Characteristic of Pakistan‘s Water Resources
Water Availability Per Capita (m3)
IRS Inflows
Reservoir Capacity (Mangla + Chashma + Tarbela)
Original : 18.4 MAF (≈ 13 % of Average Annual Flows)
Year 2001 : 14.1 MAF (≈ 10 % of Average Annual Flows)
Projected 2010 : 12.4 MAF (≈ 9 % of Average Annual Flows)
Downstream Kotri Annual Discharges
Average : 35 MAF
Maximum (in 1994-95) : 92 MAF
Minimum (in 2000-01) : 0.77 MAF
Annual In Kharif ( Apr-Sep)
In Rabi ( Oct-Mar)
Average 137.87 MAF 82% 18%
Maximum 218.1 MAF
Minimum 97 MAF
Source of data: WAPDA
Year 1951 2003 2007 2020
(projected)
Availability 5650 1200 1100 855
Indus at
Kalabagh
Jhelum at
Mangla
Chenab at
Marala
Ravi at
Balloki
Sutlej at
Sulemanki
Pakistan Remote Inflow Measurements Stations
Upper Indus Basin Glaciers
The Karakoram Glaciers
There are more than 5000 glaciers having areal coverage of about 15000 km2 in River Indus Catchment
Total Ice Reserve Estimate of UIB is about 2200 MAF of Water Equivalent
The largest 23 glaciers account for about 60% of the glacier area.
These glaciers are born within an elevation zone of 5000 – 7000 meters above sea level.
Above 70% of River flows are generated from UIB Snow and Glacier melt
Annual glacier melt (1962 – 2009) average in River Indus at Tarbela is about 40 MAF
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Projected Implications on Indus River Flows due to
Melting of HKH Glaciers (Reported by Some Recent Studies)
IPCC AR4 (2007)
Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding within next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede.
World Bank (2006)
Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causing increase of Indus River flows. then the glacier reservoirs will be empty, resulting in decrease of flows by up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent fifty years.
Vulnerability of Water and Food Security
Major CC-related Concerns of
Pakistan
Key sectors: Water and Agriculture at greatest risk;
Increased variability of Monsoon due to ENSO events becoming stronger and more frequent in a warmer climate;
Increased risks of floods and landslides, droughts, typhoons and tropical storms, forest fires etc. due to increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events;
Severe water-stressed conditions in arid and semi-arid regions due to reduced rainfall, increased temp., and depletion of soil moisture – May lead to expansion of deserts;
060212/0018
Major CC-related Concerns of
Pakistan (Contd.)
More rapid recession of HKH Glaciers due to increase in
temp. and seasonal variability of precipitation – May lead to
increased summer flows in Indus river system for a few
decades, followed by reduction in flows as Glaciers
disappear;
Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due to rise in
snowline on mountains with increase in surface temp. –
May increase risk of floods during the wet season;
Agriculture productivity likely to suffer severe losses due to
high temp., droughts, flood conditions and soil degradation
– Would endanger food security of the country;
060212/0019
Major CC-related Concerns of
Pakistan (Contd.)
As a result of sea level rise, large scale inundation of coastline
and recession of flat sandy beaches; upstream incursion of
saline water in the Indus delta; and risk to mangroves, coral
reefs and breeding grounds of fish;
Enhanced risk to life and property in coastal areas due to
increased intensity of tropical cyclones, combined with sea level
rise; High risk for Karachi;
Large reduction in productivity of both warm water and cold
water fish due to oxygen depletion in aquatic systems;
060212/0020
Major CC-related Concerns of
Pakistan (Contd.)
Higher incidence of Malaria and other vector-borne, water-
borne and heat-related diseases due to warmer and wetter
conditions;
Risk to fragile ecology of Mountain and Highland systems
due to synergetic effects of Climate Change;
Increased threat to biodiversity, which is already at risk due
to land-use/cover change and population pressure.
060212/0021
Some Recent Climate Extreme Events in Pakistan
2010 A serious landslide hi Ataabad in Gilgit-Baltistan 1n January and blocked Hunza river for months together and formed a lake. Some villages got washed away and caused huge damages to life and property
2010 The warmest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan was 53.7 °C in Mohenjo-Daro on May 26. Maximum temperature in the city of Multan on 27 May was recorded as 50°C which broke the old record of 49°C set in 1956.
2010 Tropical cyclone Phet formed in the Arabian Sea on May 31 gained a Cat-IV status on June 2. This was the second strongest storm ever developed in the Arabian Sea. Tropical cyclone Gonu of Cat-V developed in June, 2007 was the strongest
2010 The worst flooding in Pakistan took place during the months of July/August. 16 inches (406 mm) rainfall fell between 28-30 July over Risalpur/Nowshehra (Khyber Pakhtunkhawa). Heavy rain over all the provinces including Gilgit-Baltistan/Azad Kashmir fell during July/August. Many stations broke their previous normal records of rainfall during the months and brought catastrophic damages ever faced by Pakistan in its history. Losses to the tune of some $ 43 billion, 20 million people affected, 1.8 million acre crops damaged and 1000 bridges collapsed.
2009 Karachi received 205 mm of rain on 18 & 19 July. Heaviest rainfall earlier recorded at Karachi was 207 mm on 1st July, 1977. The normal rainfall at Karachi for the periods 1961-1990 is 85.5 mm
Some Recent Climate Extreme Events in Pakistan Contd.
2007 Record heat wave gripped Pakistan during June, 2007. 48°C temperature was recorded on 9th June at Lahore, a record repeated after 78 years. Earlier it was recorded on 8th June 1929
2007 Two super cyclones namely Gonu (02A) of Cat-5 and Yemyin (03B) of Cat-1 developed in the Arabian Sea during June, 2007 and hit Makran Coast and adjoining countries. The history of the Arabian Sea at least during the previous century shows no such events occurring twice in a month
2001 620 mm rainfall in Islamabad during 10 hours in the month of July (on 23rd); it caused flooding in Lai nullah
1998-2001 History’s worst drought gripped southern parts of Pakistan and parts of surrounding countries
1996 438 mm rain in Lahore in 72 hours in August 1996 the wettest month on record
1992 Previous century’s worst flood in Jhelum river
Rapid Melting of HKH glaciers and its Implications for:
Average Annual River Flows
Pattern of Seasonal Flows
Inter Annual Variability of Flows
Increased number of GLOF events
Increase in Frequency and Intensity of Extreme
Precipitation Events and its Implication for Floods and
Droughts
Sea-level Rise and its Implications
Stress on Judicial Water Sharing (Upper and Lower Riparian)
Major Emerging Climate Change Challenges
for Water Resources of Pakistan
Climate Change Research in
GCISC
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Past & Projected Climate
Change in Pakistan
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Rising and Falling Trends observed in the Monthly Energy (Degree Days)
of Upper Indus Basin High Altitude Weather Stations During 1995 – 2009
UIB
Stations
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Khunjerab Z Z Z Z R R F F F R Z Z
Ziarat Z Z R F R R F F F F R Z
Naltar R R R N R R F F F N N R
Yasin Z Z R R R R F F F R R Z
Ushkore R R R R R R N F F N R F
Hushey R R R R R R F N F F R R
Rama Z Z R F R R F F F F N Z
Rattu R R R N R R F F F N F R
Deosai Z Z Z F R R F F F R Z Z
Burzil Z Z Z R R R F F F R Z Z
R = Rising Trend ; F = Falling Trend ; N = No Trend; Z = Zero Degree Days
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(a)
(b)
Grids covering geographical areas of:
a) Northern and
b) Southern parts of Pakistan
(b)
Northern and Southern Parts of Pakistan
Climatology Section, GCISC
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30
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Pakistan Northern
Pakistan
Southern
Pakistan
Annual 4.38 ± 0.44 4.67 ± 0.23 4.22 ± 0.18
Summer 4.13 ± 0.26 4.56 ± 0.28 3.90 ± 0.26
Winter 4.47 ± 0.20 4.72 ± 0.24 4.33 ± 0.18
Projected Temperature Changes in 2080s, ∆T (°C)
by GCM Ensemble for A2 Scenario
• Temperature increase in Pakistan is higher than the increase
observed globally
• Temperature increases in both summer and winter are higher
in Northern Pakistan than in Southern Pakistan
• Temperature increases in Northern and Southern Pakistan are
higher in winter than in summer Climatology Section, GCISC
GCISC Studies on Impact of Climate Change on Water and
Agriculture
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Application of Remote Sensing &
GIS Tools & Techniques
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Snouts Variation of Some of the Glaciers in Hunza Basin
Landsat image; Resolution 30m
• 7 – 8 band satellite images of 30m resolution taken by LandSat were
available for 1979, 1992 and 2000.
• The images were analysed using Erdas Imagine software.
Measured Changes in Volumes of selected Glaciers of Hunza
Basin, Karakoram Range, Himalaya (1979-2000)
Measured Changes in Volumes of selected Glaciers of Hunza
Basin, Karakoram Range, Himalaya (1979-2000)
Glacier Name
Volume Change ∆V
(km³)
% Change in Glacier Volume*
Bualtar 1.4 ± 0.7 10.4 ± 5.0
Mohmil 3.3 ± 1.8 27.1 ± 14.6
Barpu 4.9 ± 3.2 19.13 ± 12.4
Gulkin -0.3± 0.3 -8.4 ± 9.8
Mulungatti 1.5 ± 2.6 7.7 ± 12.9
Gulmit -0.1 ± 0.2 -2.9 ± 7.3
Passu 0.8 ± 2.6 9.5 ± 30.8
* Data of glaciers is given in descending order according to significance level in % change in glacier volume
Threat to Food Security
Vulnerability of Agriculture to
Climate Change
Irrigated Agriculture: Consumes >90% of fresh water resources
and contributes >75% to national production;
Rained and Dryland Agriculture: Contributes <25% to
national production.
Irrigated areas: Vulnerable to irrigation water shortage due to glacier
melt in the wake of climate change.
Semi-arid and Arid areas: Vulnerable to changes in quantity,
intensity and frequency of rainfalls.
Both of the irrigated and dry areas: vulnerable to climate
extreme events of floods, droughts, heat waves, cold waves, dust storms, hail storms, sea storms, etc.
Pakistan will experience decreases in crop
production and quality due to:
Shortening of growing season length
Heat stress at sensitive growth stages,
e.g. flowering, grain initiation stages
Increased pest/disease incidence
Increased crop water requirements due to higher evapotranspiration at elevated temperatures
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Agro-climatic zones used by GCISC for Climate
Change Impact Studies on Agriculture
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0 1 2 3 4 5
Temperature Change (oC)
Wheat Y
ield
(kg/h
a)
Northern
Mountainous
(Humid)
Northern Sub-
Mountainous
(Sub-humid)
Southern Plains
(Semi arid)
Southern Plains
(Arid)
Effect of increase in temperature on Wheat yields in different
agro-climatic zones of Pakistan (other factors remaining
constant) (based on GCISC studies)
Climate Change Impact on Wheat Production in
Pakistan by 2085 under A2 and B2 Scenarios
Region
% Share in
National
Production
Baseline Yield
(kg ha-1)
% Change in yield in 2085
A2
Scenario
B2
Scenario
Northern
Mountainous 2 2658 +50 +40
Northern Sub-
mountainous 9 3933 -11 -11
Southern
Semi arid
Plains
42 4306 -8 -8
Southern Arid
Plains 47
4490
-5
-6
Pakistan 100 4326 -5.7 -6.4
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Application of UBC (University of British
Colombia) Hydrological Model
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APPLICATIO OF UBC - UPPER INDUS BASIN @ BESHAM QILA
Mean Monthly Flows for the Period of Record 1995-2004
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000Ja
n
Feb Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Dis
ch
arg
e (
Cu
me
cs
)
Base Runoff CCS Runoff
Base Glacier melt CCS Glacier melt
Impact of Climate Change and Glacier retreat on Indus River Flows at Bisham Qila
(Just above Tarbela Reservoir) Assumed Climate Change Scenario (CCS):
Temp: +3°C, Glacier Area: - 50%
Main Results: 1. Annual flows reduced by 15%
2. Intra-Annual flow pattern considerably changed
Major Collaborating International Partners
• APN Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research, Japan;
• ASICTP Abdus Salam Int. Centre for Theoretical Physics, Italy;
• IIASA Int. Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria;
• NCAR National Centre for Atmospheric Research, USA;
• GECAFS Global Environment Change and Food System, UK;
• ICIMOD International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Nepal;
• GLIMS Global Land Ice Measurements from Space, Univ. of Nebraska, USA.
• CeG School of Civil Engineering, Newcastle University, UK
Collaborating National Organizations
1. Pakistan Meteorological Department, PMD
2. Water and Power Development Authority, WAPDA
3. Pakistan Agricultural Research Council, PARC
4. University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, UAF
5. University of Arid Agriculture, Rawalpindi, UAAR
6. Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Organisation, SUPARCO
7. Institute of GIS, National Univ. of Sc. & Tech., IGIS/NUST
8. Pakistan Inst. of Nuclear Science and Technology, PINSTECH
9. Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources, PCRWR
10. Centre of Excellence in Water Resources Engg., CEWRE/UET
Required Further Efforts
Develop appropriate Adaptation and Mitigation Measures to counter the negative impacts by sharing the regional experience
THANKS
CLIMATE CHANGE THAT
WE ARE HERE TOGETHER
FOR A COMMON CAUSE
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