Climate Change and its Implications for Coastal and

Marine Ecosystems

Frank Schwing

BioForum - Adapting to Climate Change: Challenges and Prospects

17 April 2010

The Challenge: Sustainable Management of an Ever-Changing Planet

The Challenge: Sustainable Management of an Ever-Changing Planet

Climate change is an environmental issue...Climate change is an environmental issue......and a developmental, economic, & ...and a developmental, economic, &

political issuepolitical issue

Climate change affects the ability of ecosystems Climate change affects the ability of ecosystems to to provide essential goods and servicesprovide essential goods and services

Adaptation can reduce adverse effects…Adaptation can reduce adverse effects………but not prevent all damagebut not prevent all damage

With consensus on global climate change, the With consensus on global climate change, the national national priority is evolving toward priority is evolving toward determining determining ecosystem impacts, and ecosystem impacts, and mitigation and adaptationmitigation and adaptation

U.S. — A “Perfect Storm” forClimate & Marine Ecosystems

Demand for seafood, economical and efficient fisheries

Protected areas must be sited & monitored with future change in mind

Conservation and recovery programs, marine spatial planning, ecosystem approaches to management…

Coastal human communities expect pristine environment, but stress coastal & ocean habitat, and are vulnerable to climate change

Recognition of changing ecosystems, better understanding of climate-ecosystem links

Reality of climate change

Ecosystems respond To climate change

(Frank Perry, SCNHM)

Climate Change = Ecosystem Change

Monterey Pine — range

Today Fossil

Large-ScaleCirculation:

The California Current,Part of the North Pacific

Ocean Circulation

(from Jack Barth, OSU)

Coastal upwelling

Satellitechlorophyll

andtemperature

(from Jack Barth, OSU)

Ocean physical changes (e.g., warming, currents)

Ocean acidification

Effects of global change vs. natural variation

Freshwater supply

Sea level rise

Loss of sea ice

Climate Change Issues for Coastaland Marine Ecosystems

Global Temperature TrendGlobal Temperature Trend

Global Warming Spatial PatternsGlobal Warming Spatial Patterns

California Marine Populations Shifting Northward

(from Union of Concerned Scientists)

Warmer Climate Favors Southern Intertidal Species

(from Berry et al., 1995)

Lower Production in 2005 & 2006due to Weak Springtime Upwelling

(from David Foley, NOAA NESDIS)

2005-2006 - worst years on record for Farallon Island auklets (42 km west of San Francisco)

Mean productivity = 0.70

From Sydeman and Bradley, PRBO

#you

ng/b

reed

ing-

pair

Nests abandoned due to delayed upwelling

Ocean AcidificationThat ‘other’ CO2 problem

Estimated aragonite saturation states of the surface ocean for the years 1765, 1995, 2040, and 2100 (Feely et al., submitted), based on the modeling results of Orr et al. (2005) and a business-as-usual CO2 emissions scenario.

As ocean calcium carbonate saturation state decreases, calcification rates by marine organisms can decline. - reduced extension rates - weaker skeletons/shells

pH

CO32-

CO2(aq)

Wolf-Gladrow et al., 1999

COCO22 and Ocean Acidification and Ocean Acidification

Ocean acidification effect on coral:(A) healthy coral with skeleton

(B) coral polyps unable to build reef

© Nancy Knowlton

Western Alaskan SockeyeBritish Columbia Sockeye

Central Alaskan PinkJapanese Chum

Pink salmon diet Predicted effect of climate change on pink salmon growth:

•10% increase in water temperature leads to 3% drop in mature salmon body weight (physiological effect).

•10% decrease in pteropod production leads to 20% drop in mature salmon body weight (prey limitation).

(Aydin et al. 2005)

Fishery Impacts of Ocean AcidificationFishery Impacts of Ocean Acidification

10% decrease in pteropod production leads to 20% drop in pink salmon body weight

INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY : Long-term Trends

• Station 93.30 at sigma-theta=26.4

• Representative of California Undercurrent Waters

• Long-term warming trend

• Increases in total nitrate and phosphate, but at different rates

• Long-term trend in N:P ratio

• Also trends in preformed andregenerated nutrients

• Possible shifts in source waters andecosystem structure

Bograd et al. (2005)

Changes in CA Current Source WaterChanges in CA Current Source Water

Low Oxygen Waters Spreadinginto the California Current

Figure: Barth & Shearman

Bottom trawl surveys, Pavlov Bay, AK

Lat

e 19

60’s

Lat

e 19

70’s

1980

’s

(from Anderson and Piatt, 1999)

Climate shifts perturb fisheries and have socio-

economic impacts

Lat

e 19

60’s

Lat

e 19

70’s

1980

’s

Climate shifts perturb fisheries and have socio-

economic impacts

Bottom trawl surveys, Pavlov Bay, AK(from Anderson and Piatt, 1999)

Lat

e 19

60’s

Lat

e 19

70’s

1980

’s

Bottom trawl surveys, Pavlov Bay, AK(from Anderson and Piatt, 1999)

Climate shifts perturb fisheries and have socio-

economic impacts

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

warm phase

Interdecadal climate variability (“regime shifts”) changes ecosystem structure and productivity

(from Nathan Mantua, U. Washington) (from Peterson and Schwing, 2003)

cool phase

zooplankton

OR coho

copepods

CA Sardine-Anchovy CyclesCA Sardine-Anchovy Cycles

Natural decadal cycles for at least Two Millenia off So. CA

Global Streamflow Projections Global Streamflow Projections

1961-1990Mean

2070-2099 Medium Warming/ Drier Climate

(from California Climate Change Center)

Decreasing Sierra SnowpackDecreasing Sierra Snowpack

Earlier California Seasonal Earlier California Seasonal Snowmelt and RunoffSnowmelt and Runoff

Global Sea Level Rise

Sea Level Change in CaliforniaSea Level Change in California

Golden Gate Water Level

SF Bay - 1m Sea Level Rise Projection SF Bay - 1m Sea Level Rise Projection

Sea IceSea Ice

Arctic Sea Ice National Snow and Ice Data Center

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/index.html

Sea ice extent continued to increase seasonally, but was near the historic low value in Feb 2010.

Climate Change Projected to ImpactCalifornia Current Ecosystem

• Warmer summer temperatures; greater ocean stratification, weaker upwelling (very likely)

• Warmer & wetter winters; greater freshwater inflow, coastal flooding (very likely)

• Higher coastal sea level (very likely)

• More extreme events; stronger storms, El Nino, hurricanes (likely)

• Delayed seasonal cycle; delayed upwelling (likely)

• Northward species shifts• Lower productivity & food• Exotic species introduced

• Reduced coastal water quality• Toxic blooms• Human health hazards

• Intertidal species displaced• Wetlands reduced

• Greater coastal erosion• Fisheries reduced & displaced• Warm-water fisheries available

• Delayed spring bloom• Reproduction, migration

impacted

Projected changes - 21st century

Examples of ecological impacts

Mitigate: avoid the unmanageable

Adapt: manage the unavoidable

SolutionsSolutions

Reduce other stresses that can be controlled• Reduce nutrient and chemical pollution• Manage fisheries conservatively• Control invasive species

Protect biodiversity & habitats • Maximize likelihood of adaption• Maximize population and ecosystem resiliency

Invest in scientific research, monitoring and education

SolutionsSolutions

Green Seas Blue Seas http://swfsc.noaa.gov/PG-Mural.aspx Consumer facts on safe, sustainable seafood FishWatch.noaa.gov