Post on 01-Jun-2020
National Institute of Disaster Management,Ministry of Home Affairs, Govt. of India
CONTENTS:
Climate change: already evident in India
Climate Change: Future Projections
Climate Change Risk Management Initiatives
Integrating DRR and CCA
Future Directions
Change in Climate: already evident (in India)
Increasing trends in mean temperature (0.5o to 0.8o C)Diurnal Temperature Range increasingMore Heat Waves /Increased Drought in some regionIncreased frequency & intensity of precipitationGlacial retreats /Glacial Lake outburst Floods (GLOFs)Sea level rise /Increase in Intensity of very strong CyclonesAdverse impact on Agriculture & Horticulture, Forestry & bio diversity, Human/ Animal healthGlaciers in Himalayan region receding @ 16 mts per year; water scarcity in rivers and ground water; 750 million people residing downstream are at risk.
(Source – MoEF 2011)
HIMALAYAN GLACIERS ARE RETREATING FAST
SO, MAJOR STREAMS ARE EXPERIENCING EARLY PEAKS IN DISCHARGE
STREAMS TO ACCOMMODATE LARGER VOLUME OF WATER NOW, OR FLOOD MORE OFTEN
NEXT PHASE WILL SEE A MAJOR WATER CRISIS Retreat @ 34 m/year during last 3 decades
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Expected Future Change in Monsoon Rainfall and Annual Surface Temp for 2020’s, 2050’s and 2080’s
RainfallRainfall
TempTemp
Projections of extremes in rainfall (2041‐2060)
• Overall decrease in the number of rainy days over a major part of the country.
• Decrease in the western and central part of the country (by more than 15 days),
• Foothills of Himalayas and in northeast India the number of rainy days is found to increase by 5–10 days.
• Increase in the rainfall intensity by 1–4 mm/day,
• Northwest India ‐ the rainfall intensities decrease by 1 mm/day
• Increase in the highest 1‐day rainfall over a major part ‐may be up to 20 cm/day
(Source:IITM)
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Acute physical water scarce conditions
Constant water scarcities and shortage
Seasonal / regular water stressed conditions
Rare water shortages
(Source: MoEF- 2011)
Current Endemic regions of malaria
Regions likely to be affected by malaria in 2050s
Impacts of Climate Change on Health- Malaria
•Increase in temperature is projected to enhance the occurrence and spread of Malaria
• Malaria is likely to occur at elevations higher than 1800m
•More states may offer climate opportunities for malaria vector breeding throughout the year.
•Transmission windows may increase by 3-5 months in northern states and may reduce by 2-3 months in the southern states. 1001/10/2013
Vulnerable areas along Indian Coastline
•A long term average rising trend of 1 mm/year in sea level observed •Sea level changes are also due to –
•Tectonic movement•Prevalent hydrography •Physiography.
•A one-meter sea level rise is projected to displace approximately 7.1 million people in India and about 5764 km2 of land area will be lost along with 4200 km of roads
Change in RAINFALL
•Frequent & Severe Flood, •Higher river erosion•Increased sedimentation
•Increased River flow ( warm season)•Lower flow (once glacier melted)•Increased saline intrusion
•More storm surge•Higher wind speed•Saline water intrusion
•Rise in Temperature.•More wet climate
•Land inundation•Salt water intrusion•Increased soil salinity
•Droughts condition•Soil degradation•Fall in water table
•Irrigation water scarcity•Soil nutrient deficiency•More Disease (cattle/crop)
•Agr; land inundation & erosion•Damage to crop, fishery. livestock•Agr. Input loss ( fert, seeds etc.)
•Agr. Land inundation•Scarcity of water for irrigation•Soil degradation ( more salinity)
•Agriculture land loss•Scarcity of irrigation water•Soil degradation (moresalinity)
•Rise in insect infestation•Crop and cattle disease•Less evapo-transpiration
•Direct loss to crop, fishery, & livestock•Soil becomes infertile•Scarcity of fresh water (irrigation)
Resulting into--- Impact on livelihood and other resources
•Scarce water resources•Nutrition deficiency•Increased poverty•Poor health•Scarce Livelihood•Migration
HUMID / WARM CLIMATE
SEA LEVEL RISE
GLACIAR MELTING
LOWER RAINFALL
MORE CYCLONE
POORNATIONAL
DEVELOPMENT&
FOOD INSECURITY
Climate Change: National Development & Food Security
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• The plan relates to sustainable development, co- -benefits to society at large, focus on adaptation, mitigation, and scientific research.
•Identifies eight core “national missions”representingmulti-pronged, long-term and integrated strategies for achieving key goals:
1. National Solar Mission2. National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency3. National Mission on Sustainable Habitat4. National Water Mission5. National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan
Ecosystem6. National Mission for a Green India7. National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture8. National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for
Climate Change
National Action Plan on Climate ChangeNATIONAL ACTION PLAN ONNATIONAL ACTION PLAN ON
CLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE
GOVERNMENT OF INDIAGOVERNMENT OF INDIA
PRIME MINISTERPRIME MINISTER’’S COUNCIL ON S COUNCIL ON CLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE
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India’s National Communication to the UNFCCC
Ministry of Environment and Forest
Designated National Authority (DNA)
Climate Change activities and policy measures
Institutional Structure for Climate Change Risk Management
Joint Secretary, Climate Change Focal point
Project Proponent for funding through GEF
Advisor, MoEF
Other Communications and
Submissions to the UNFCCC
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
Implementing Agency for the GEF
Network of Institutes
Joint Secretary, GEF, Focal Point
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•Climate Change adaptation: An adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits benefit opportunities.
• Disaster Risk Reduction: The broad development and application of policies, strategies and practices to minimise vulnerabilities and disaster risks throughout society, through prevention, mitigation and preparedness‟
DRR
CCA
Long‐term adjustment to changing average conditions
Climate Risk Management (including weather extreme)
Risk Management of Geophysical hazards
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION & DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
In support of the Bali Action Plan, and based on consultation with ISDR system partners and UNFCCC Parties, India has identified and promoted the following three areas of action over 2008:
• Develop national coordination mechanisms to link disaster risk reduction and adaptation.
• Conduct a baseline assessment on the status of disaster risk reduction and adaptation efforts.
• Prepare adaptation plans drawing on the Hyogo Framework.
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In India DRR ( DM Act 2005) and CC ( NAPCC‐2008) related Institutional, Policy and Programme Framework already exists……
It is now time for convergencefor effective development planning and programming: managing risks and uncertainties for all shocks and stresses as simply good business, particularly in the face of mounting evidence that disasters are hampering development and poverty alleviation.