Post on 11-Apr-2017
Climate and the Economy:Beauty and the Beast
Symposium on Climate Change and the EconomyGuy Dauncey, Duncan, March 2017
The Beast = The Economy= Mechanistic, reductionist thinking
The Prince = The New Economy= Holistic, systems thinking
Beauty = Nature, Holocene Climate
Homo Economicus
Climate Change?
It’s all justhot air
Huh?
December 2016
The last time the world was 3C warmer,the sea level was 25 metres higher.
The Guardian, March 22, 2016
Cowichan Estuary 0 metres sea-level rise
flood.firetree.net
2 metres sea-level rise
5 metres sea-level rise
9 metres sea-level rise
20 metres sea-level rise
Vancouver 0 Metres Sea-Level Rise
Vancouver 2 Metres Sea-Level Rise
Vancouver 5 Metres Sea-Level Rise
Vancouver 9 Metres Sea-Level Rise
Vancouver 20 Metres Sea-Level Rise
We must change our future story
from negative to positive,
from fear and worry
to hope and determination.
The Economics of Self-Interest
Homo Economicus
$$$$
Rational
RationalSelf-interested
RationalSelf-interestedMaximizing capital gain
RationalSelf-interestedMaximizing capital gainIgnoring externalities
RationalSelf-interestedMaximizing capital gainIgnoring externalitiesProduce!
RationalSelf-interestedMaximizing capital gainIgnoring externalitiesProduce!Consume!
RationalSelf-interestedMaximizing capital gainIgnoring externalitiesProduce!Consume!Grow!
RationalSelf-interestedMaximizing capital gainIgnoring externalitiesProduce!Consume!Grow!REPEAT…..
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
GDP =GrossDepletion of the
Planet
How to Kiss the Beast
1. Launch a Creative Engagement with the community to discuss the climate crisis,
and seek solutions
2. Tackle ecological ignorance. Starting with VIU, require that starting in 2020,
every entry student and new professor must have passed a course in Ecology 101.
3. Set a regional district goal to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2040
4a. Persuade 100 local businesses to attain Vancouver Island Green Business Certification
by 2020, 1000 by 2030, all by 2040
4b. Persuade 50 local businesses to become Benefit Corporations by 2020, 500 by 2030, all by 2040
5. Adopt a goal for 25% of local farms to be organic by 2020, 50% by 2030, 100% by 2040
6. Find ways to increase vegetarian diet, and reduce the local consumption of industrial meat and dairy
7. Work to restore 25% of local forests to an old growth restoration trajectory by 2020,
50% by 2030, 100% by 2040
8. Adopt a plan for the whole regional economy to become a restorative economy by 2040
9. Stay really engaged in climate impact preparation and mitigation
10. Persuade all other regional districts on Vancouver Island to adopt the same goals
A Roadmap for Rapid DecarbonizationScience, March 24 2017
1. Launch a Creative Engagement with the community to discuss the climate crisis,
and seek solutions
It will take everyone – non-profits, service clubs, schools, colleges,
businesses, banks, governments
We need to organize togetherso that we can flourish in harmony with each other
and with Nature.
Unity in Diversity, Shared Purpose
Environmental groups Food and gardening groups First Nations Youth groups Local government Local businessesSchools Churches Community groups Political organizations Chamber of Commerce Service clubs Regional District
Local college
2. TACKLE ECOLOGICAL IGNORANCE. Starting with VIU, require that starting in 2020,
every entry student and new professor must have passed a course in
ECOLOGY 101
Before Ecology 101
After Ecology 101
After Ecology 101
Candidates for School BoardsNew teachers, school board staff
Candidates for municipal electionsCandidates for provincial, federal elections
Candidates for non-profit leadershipUVic, Camosun, Royal Roads, North Island College
3. Set a regional district goal to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2040
Farewell and Thank You, Fossil Fuels
Welcome, Solar Age!
GUSSING, AUSTRIAis ALREADY
100% RENEWABLE
The City of COPENHAGENvoted to BECOME
100% CARBON NEUTRAL by 2025
The City of OSLOvoted to REDUCE its GHGs
By 95% by 2030
CITY OF FRANKFURTvoted to go
100% RENEWABLE by 2050
CITY OF VANCOUVERvoted to go
100% RENEWABLE before 2050
CITY OF VICTORIAvoted to go
100% RENEWABLE by 2050
DISTRICT OF SAANICHjust voted to move toward100% RENEWABLE by 2050
Might DUNCANvote to go
100% RENEWABLE before 2050?
Might NORTH COWICHANvote to go
100% RENEWABLE before 2050?
Might the CVRDvote to go
100% RENEWABLE before 2050?
Almost Twice as Many Green Jobs in Canada
By Guy Dauncey
800,000 fossil fuel jobs lost 1,000,000 green energy jobs gained
Transportation with 100% Renewable Energy
www.tonystrailers.com
Where cars dominates, people connect less. Less sense of neighbourhood.
With people-inspired urban design, people connect. More sense of neighbourhood.
Which do you prefer… THIS?
Or THIS?
Barcelona is moving ALL buses to100% electric by 2020
So why not here too?Montreal – 100% electric buses by 2025
China – 40,000 new electric buses every year
Bio-methane from Bristol's sewage treatment (UK) 300 km on a tank of gas.
Well-to-wheel, biomethane produces 95% less CO2 than diesel
2nd hand Nissan Leaf: $17,000www.motorizevictoria.ca
The falling price of EV batteries
By 2025, Holland is preparing to permit the sale of ONLY electric cars
0 metres sea-level rise
5 metres sea-level rise
20 metres sea-level rise
Building Heat with 100% Renewable Energy
Passive Houses, Victoria90% reduced heat loss
Brussels, BelgiumSince 2015, all new buildings and retrofits are
required to be Nearly-Zero Energy, based on the Passive House Standard.
4a. Persuade 100 local businesses to attain Vancouver Island Green Business Certification
by 2020, 1000 by 2030, all by 2040
Green Business Certification
4b. Persuade 50 local businesses to become Benefit Corporations by 2020, 500 by 2030, all by 2040
Benefit Corporations
B Corporations Vancouver Island
5. Adopt a goal for 25% of local farms to be organic by 2020, 50% by 2030, 100% by 2040
Organic yields match conventional yields.Outperform conventional in years of drought.Organic
farming uses 45% less energy.Produces 40% fewer greenhouse gases.Is more profitable than conventional
farming.Rodale Institute, 30-year trials.
Zero-till, conservation farming and organic farming could sequestrate 50 GT of carbon
from the atmosphere. - Rattan Lal
All organic farms protect their bees
Local Food with 100% Renewable Energyplus added carbon storage!
6. Find ways to eat more vegetarian, and reduce the consumption of industrial meat and dairy
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
The livestock industry – meat & dairy – is causing 15% of global warming
Who, - me?
Me?
100% Delicious Vegetarian Food
7. Work to restore 25% of local forests to an old growth restoration trajectory by 2020,
50% by 2030, 100% by 2040
Global Deforestation
1.5 Gigatonnes of carbon a year
Klanawa Valley, Vancouver Island TJ Watt
Merv Wilkinson at Wildwood
Second growth forest, needs thinning
Wildwood Forest with added carbon storage
8. Adopt a strategy for the whole regional economy to become a restorative economy by 2040
The transition from a capitalist economy to a green, entrepreneurial cooperative economy
could be one of the defining achievements of the 21st century.
The Economics of Kindness
Homo Economicus Homo Amicus
The Eight Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy
The Eight Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy
Ecological
Wealth
The Eight Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy
Ecological
Wealth
IndividualAgency
The Eight Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy
Ecological
Wealth
Trust
The Eight Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy
Ecological
Wealth
Trust
Future
Faith
in the
The Eight Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy
Ecological
Wealth
Trust
Future
Faith
in the
Cultural wealth
The Eight Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy
Ecological
Wealth
Trust
Future
Faith
in the
Cultural wealth
Communitywealth
The Eight Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy
Ecological
Wealth
Trust
Future
Faith
in the
Cultural wealth
Communitywealth
Publicwealth
The Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy
Ecological
Wealth
Trust
Future
Faith
in the
Cultural wealth
Communitywealth
Publicwealth
Privatewealth
Green Space
Great Schools
Social Space
AffordableChildcare
Solar Energy
Community Wealth
A SharingEconomy
Urban Food
Work-sharing
Citizens Income
AffordableHousing
Free Post-Sec Education
Great Public Transport Bike Lanes
Social Business Social Banking
A CooperativeEconomy
A Circular Economy
Kate RaworthOxfam Economist
A CVRD Regional Sustainability Meeting in 2020
9. Stay really engaged in climate impact preparation and mitigation
10. Persuade all other regional districts on Vancouver Island to adopt the same goals
A self-interested‘homo economicus’
economy
A common good‘homo amicus’
economy
A Vancouver Island Sustainability Gatheringin 2021
A Roadmap for Rapid DecarbonizationScience, March 24 2017
“A fabulous book … a sweeping vision”
– James Hansen, NASA
“A joyous, hope-filled manual.”- Bill McKibben
350.org
The Biggest Global Climate Solution You Have Never Heard Of
WORLD FUTURE COUNCIL
Chief EconomistWorld Future Council
Massive acceleration to achieve 100% renewable energy needs an investment of
$1.5 to $2 trillion a year. $300 billion a year is needed in public grants.
Chief EconomistWorld Future Council
“Climate change initiatives offer a $5-7 trillion funding opportunity for capital markets.”
Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England
Established to keep the global temperature increase below 2°C by investing in
low-emission climate-resilient development.
Advanced economies have agreed to mobilize $100 billion a year by 2020,
but only $10 billion has been raised so far.
Where does new money come from?
A. Is it printed by the Central Banks, reflecting the quantity of gold in reserves? NO.
Where does new money come from?
A. Is it printed by the Central Banks, reflecting the quantity of gold in reserves? NO.
B. Is it created by Private Banks based on their fractional reserves? YES, kind of.
Where does new money come from?
A. Is it printed by the Central Banks, reflecting the quantity of gold in reserves? NO.
B. Is it created by Private Banks based on their fractional reserves? YES, kind of.
C. Is it created by Central Banks out of thin air, social trust? YES.
Where does new money come from?
“The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled.”
- John Kenneth Galbraith
New money is not created out of thin air, but out of shared social trust.
Public TRUST…
Public TRUST…Allows money creation…
Public TRUST…Allows money creation…Allows banking…
The Bank of Gandalf can create money out of thin air because of social trust.
Quantitative Easing
Quantitative Easing for the Climate
The World’s Central Banks
Issues $300 billion a year in Green Climate Bonds
Issues $300 billion a year in Green Climate Bonds
World’s Central Banks create
$300 billion a year to buy the bonds
Issues $300 billion a year in Green Climate Bonds
World’s Central Banks create
$300 billion a year to buy the bonds
$300 billion a year
Distributes $300 Billion a year as leverage to attract
private capital
Distributes $300 Billion a year as leverage to attract
private capital
which invests $1.2 trillion a year
in renewable energy and climate solutions
Not an inflationary riskGlobal economic output: $80 trillion a year
Global Central Banks Climate Stimulus$300 billion a year
0.375% monetary increase a year
20 metres sea-level rise
Collapse is Possible
A Great Transition is Possible
Climate and the Economy:Beauty and the Beast
www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey
“Brilliant!”- David Suzuki
“A tour-de-force”- Tzeporah Berman