Climate 101:The State of Earth’s Climate

Nancy Beller-Simms, PhDNOAA Climate Program Office

301-734-1205 | nancy.beller-simms@noaa.gov

Key messages

1. Earth is warming at an unusually rapid rate, and is projected to

warm by a lot more this century.

2. Human emission of heat-trapping gases is the primary reason

for the warming—carbon dioxide is a key concern.

3. This rapid warming and resulting climatic changes produce

harmful & costly extreme events.

4. Scientists understand the problem and human society has the

means to solve it.

5. An overwhelming majority (~97%) of climate scientists agree

with those first four statements.

6. BUT global warming isn’t the whole story; natural variability is

also a major factor for near- to mid-term planning.

7. Will provide authoritative online sources where you can learn

more.

What’s the difference between

global warming & climate change?

What’s the difference between

global warming & climate change?

Global warming is a long-term increase in annual

average temperature for the whole Earth.

What’s the difference between

global warming & climate change?

Global warming is a long-term increase in annual

average temperature for the whole Earth.

Climate change can be an increase or decrease.

Climate change can be local, regional or global.

Climate change can refer to many parameters.

What’s the difference between

climate change & climate variability?

So, what’s the difference between

climate change & climate variability?

Climate change is a long-term (years to

centuries) change in meteorological and

environmental conditions that alter the average

of weather patterns due to natural or human

causes, or both.

So, what’s the difference between

climate change & climate variability?

Climate change is a long-term (years to

centuries) change in meteorological and

environmental conditions that alter the average

of weather patterns due to natural or human

causes, or both.

Climate variability alters the average of weather

patterns due to natural causes on relatively

short to medium time spans (weeks to years).

For example, changes in El Niño (top) and the Arctic

Oscillation (bottom) are due to natural climate variability

For example, changes in El Niño (top) and the Arctic

Oscillation (bottom) are due to natural climate variability

ENSO & AO brought an unusually severe winter to the mid-Atlantic

(left) and an unusually mild winter to the Pacific Northwest (right).

‘Snowmaggedon’ hit the U.S. mid-Atlantic in winter of 2010 while there was

no snow for the Olympic Winter Games in Vancouver, Canada, due to

unusually warm, dry conditions.

So, is global warming real?

Wasn’t there a ‘hiatus’ after 1998?

Earth is 1.5 F warmer than 20th century average.

NOAA Climate.gov

Ten signs of a warming world

Temperature

of the Lower

AtmosphereSnow

Humidity

Air Temperature

over Ocean

Arctic

Sea Ice

Sea Surface

Temperature

Ocean Heat

Content

Global

Sea LevelAir Temperature

over Land

Glaciers

Human CO2 emissions are of primary concern

Moving outside the range of long-term historical variation

Historical perspective: an 800,000-year

record of carbon dioxide concentration

Average for 2011 (almost 392 ppm)

2011

Updated from Karl et al 2009

Projected to move WAY outside the historical range by 2100

Average for 2011 (almost 392 ppm)

2011

Updated from Karl et al 2009

Historical perspective: an 800,000-year

record of carbon dioxide concentration

Due to the unusually rapid build-up of heat-trapping

gases, Earth is projected to warm unusually rapidly

Source: U.S. Climate Science Special Report

Projected Annual Global

Carbon Emissions

Projected Global

Temperatures

Overall, ice sheets & glaciers are melting

Overall, global sea level is rising

Why should we care?

Climate-related hazards are having,

and are project to have, costly

impacts on human and natural

systems.

What is an ‘extreme event’?

An ‘extreme event’ is a

time and place in which

weather or climate

conditions — such as

temperature, precipitation,

prolonged drought, or

coastal flooding — rank

among the highest or

lowest of historical

measurements.

A warmer world increases the

probability of extreme events

People & communities are experiencing

more / more frequent extreme events…

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…with costly damages to infrastructure.

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People, communities, and essential

services face increasing risk

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US ARNG SGT Rashawn D. Price , 2012

U.S. Postal Service, 2012

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U.S. natural catastrophes are on the rise

U.S. financial losses are also rising

What can we do about global

warming and its resultant climatic

changes?

Improving our ability to cope

with, or avoid, harmful

impacts; or taking advantage

of newly favorable

conditions. Reducing risk

and vulnerability; or

exploiting opportunities.

Adaptation

Reducing greenhouse gas

emissions &/or removing

carbon dioxide from the

atmosphere can lessen the

severity of climate change

& its impacts.

Mitigation

Reducing atmospheric CO2 Coping with new conditions

time

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ioxid

e

Adaptation: Anticipating and adjusting

to new conditions

• Protect habitat or structures

threatened by sea level rise

• Develop plans to ensure

adequate water supplies

• Plant different crops

• Develop new businesses /

business models

What

changes are

coming?

What changes

do we need to

make?

Assessing a region’s ability to handle

runoff from heavier precipitation

Mitigation: reducing CO2 in the atmosphere

• Develop new habits to

eliminate wasted energy

• Switch to carbon-free

energy sources such as

solar and wind

• Plant trees to increase

the amount of CO2 taken

up by forests & to reduce

the severity of ‘urban

heat islands’

Where can you go to access

authoritative climate science tools

and information online?

Available online at

science2017.globalchange.gov

Climate summaries for every U.S. state

https://statesummaries.ncics.org

Climate summaries for every U.S. state

Climate summaries for every U.S. state

Helping people build climate resilience

https://toolkit.climate.gov

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CRT’s Climate Explorer

Days per year with temperature ≥ 95°F

Days per year with temperature ≥ 95°F

in Jackson County, Missouri

Cooling Degree Days in Jackson County

BAMS Annual

State of the

Climate Reports

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams

nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices

America’s Climate Choices

Thank You!

For more information (including listserve):

Nancy.beller-simms@noaa.gov

301-734-1205