Nigel Foo Oct 2018

Together

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Market outlook Defence is the best offence

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Important Notice This presentation has been prepared by CIMB Investment Bank Berhad (“CIMB”) exclusively for the benefit and internal use of the recipient in order to indicate, on a preliminary basis, the feasibility of possible transactions. Terms contained in this presentation are intended for discussion purposes only and are subject to a definitive agreement. All information contained in this presentation belongs to CIMB and its related corporations (“CIMB Group”) and may not be copied, distributed or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without the written consent of CIMB Group.

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CIMB Research technical publications

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, CIMB

RESEARCH

Alpha Edge monthly

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CIMB Research technical publications

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, CIMB

RESEARCH

Trendspotter daily

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Forex

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, CIMB

RESEARCH

US$ long-term uptrend

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Bloomberg Dollar Index monthly chart

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, CIMB

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Dollar Index consolidation since 2014 has ended

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Yen-US$ monthly chart (112)

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, CIMB

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Resistance trendline broken few months broken

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Euro weekly chart (1.15)

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, CIMB

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Bearish Head & Shoulder pattern

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Ringgit monthly chart (RM4.15)

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, CIMB

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Ringgit in an uptrend against US$

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Ind Rupiah monthly chart (15,244Rp)

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, CIMB

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Wave 5 to a new high

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Bonds

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, CIMB

RESEARCH

Rising US interest rates

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US 10-years govt. bond yield since 1981

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, CIMB

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Broke resistance trendline one year ago

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Japan 10-years govt. bond yield since 2004 (0.15%)

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, CIMB

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Broke resistance trendline

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Europe 10-years govt. bond yield monthly chart since 2004 (0.49%)

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, CIMB

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Broke resistance trendline

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Malaysia 10 years govt. bond yield (4.1%)

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, CIMB

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Triangle consolidation since 2008

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Indonesia 10-years govt. bond yield monthly chart (8.8%)

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, CIMB

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Just broke out of consolidation

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Stockmarket

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, CIMB

RESEARCH

A tired stockmarket

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S&P500 weekly chart (2,767)

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, CIMB

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Support at 2,650 and 2,230

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MSCI Asia ex-Japan monthly chart (602)

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, CIMB

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Resistance at 630pts

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KLCI monthly chart (1,736)

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, CIMB

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Major support at 1,720

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FBMSC monthly chart (13,491)

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, CIMB

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Resistance at 16,000

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MSCI Emerging Market Index weekly chart (980)

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, CIMB

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Support at 970pts

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MSCI Emerging Market Index weekly chart (980)

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, CIMB

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Support at 970pts

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Cycles

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, CIMB

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KLCI long-term cycles (10.5 years)

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, CIMB

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Next cycle low at mid-2019?

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Joseph Cycle

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, CIMB

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Next upcycle in 2022?

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Other investments

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, CIMB

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Gold prices (US$1,221)

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, CIMB

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Major triangle?

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CPO (RM2,270)

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, CIMB

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Major triangle consolidation has ended?

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Summary

• US$ in a major long-term uptrend.

• Global bond yields have bottomed and is trending higher

• Stock markets are breaking down

• KLCI 10.5 year cycles bottom in mid-2019?

• Gold and CPO alternative investments?